Mismanaged plastic waste as a predictor for river plastic pollution.

Hydrometeorological processes are often assumed to be key drivers of plastic transport. However, the predominant focus on these factors overlooks the impact of anthropogenic factors, such as mismanaged plastic waste (MPW) on plastic transport variability. Here, we investigate the roles of both anthropogenic and hydrometeorological factors on plastic pollution in the Odaw catchment, Ghana. Data on macroplastic transport and density were collected at ten locations between December 2021 and December 2022. We tested for differences between the wet and dry seasons and applied a multiple regression analysis to examine the separate and combined impact of hydrometeorological variables (rainfall, discharge, and windspeed) on macroplastic transport. Additionally, we analyzed the spatial correlation in macroplastic transport/density with MPW and population density. Data collection involved visual counting of floating macroplastics at 10 river locations and counting litter at 9 riverbanks and land locations. Rainfall data was sourced from TAHMO (Trans-African Hydrometeorological Observatory), discharge was measured during field campaigns, and windspeed data sourced from a global climate data provider. We used globally modelled MPW estimates to represent anthropogenic factors. Contrary to previous studies, we found no seasonal differences in macroplastic pollution and only weak correlations were observed between the hydrometeorological variables and macroplastic transport. However, a strong correlation was observed between MPW and macroplastic pollution. We hypothesize that, the influence of hydrometeorological factors on macroplastic transport depend on the relative impact of anthropogenic factors. Our research highlights the limited role of hydrometeorology, showing the significant role of mismanaged plastic waste to field monitored macroplastic pollution variability in the catchment. This insight is essential for future research as it highlights the importance of holistically investigating both anthropogenic and hydrometeorological factors in explaining plastic transport and retention dynamics. This insight is essential for developing interventions that effectively address plastic pollution in catchments.

River plastic transport and storage budget.

Rivers are one of the main conduits that deliver plastic from land into the sea, and also act as reservoirs for plastic retention. Yet, our understanding of the extent of river exposure to plastic pollution remains limited. In particular, there has been no comprehensive quantification of the contributions from different river compartments, such as the water surface, water column, riverbank and floodplain to the overall river plastic transport and storage. This study aims to provide an initial quantification of these contributions. We first identified the main relevant transport processes for each river compartment considered. We then estimated the transport and storage terms, by harmonizing available observations on surface, suspended and floodplain plastic. We applied our approach to two river sections in The Netherlands, with a focus on macroplastics (≥2.5 cm). Our analysis revealed that for the studied river sections, suspended plastics account for over 96% of item transport within the river channel, while their relative contribution to mass transport is only 30%-37% (depending on the river section considered). Surface plastics predominantly consisted of heavier items (mean mass: 7.1 g/#), whereas suspended plastics were dominated by lighter fragments (mean mass: 0.1 g/#). Additionally, the majority (98%) of plastic mass was stored within the floodplains, with the river channel accounting for only 2% of the total storage. Our study developed a harmonized approach for quantifying plastic transport and storage across different river compartments, providing a replicable methodology applicable to different regions. Our findings emphasize the importance of systematic monitoring programs across river compartments for comprehensive insights into riverine plastic pollution.

Water hyacinths retain river plastics.

Rivers represent one of the main conduits for the delivery of plastics to the sea, while also functioning as reservoirs for plastic retention. In tropical regions, rivers are exposed to both high levels of plastic pollution and invasion of water hyacinths. This aquatic plant forms dense patches at the river surface that drift due to winds and currents. Recent work suggests that water hyacinths play a crucial role in influencing plastic transport, by efficiently trapping the majority of surface plastic within their patches. However, a comprehensive understanding of the interaction between water hyacinths and plastics is still lacking. We hypothesize that the properties relevant to plastic transport change due to their trapping in water hyacinth patches. In particular, the length scale, defined as the characteristic size of the transported material, is a key property in understanding how materials move within rivers. Here, we show that water hyacinth patches trap on average 54%-77% of all observed surface plastics at the measurement site (Saigon river, Vietnam). Both temporally and spatially, we found that plastic and water hyacinth presence co-occur. The formation of plastic-plant aggregates carries significant implications for both clean-up and monitoring purposes, as these aggregates can be detected from space and need to be jointly removed. In addition, the length scale of trapped plastics (∼4.0 m) was found to be forty times larger than that of open water plastics (∼0.1 m). The implications of this increased length scale for plastic transport dynamics are yet to be fully understood, calling for further investigation into travel distances and trajectories. The effects of plastic trapping likely extend to other key properties of plastic-plant aggregates, such as effective buoyancy and mass. Given the prevalence of plant invasion and plastic pollution in rivers worldwide, this research offers valuable insights into the complex environmental challenges faced by numerous rivers.

Catchment scale assessment of macroplastic pollution in the Odaw river, Ghana.

Catchment-scale plastic pollution assessments provide insights in its sources, sinks, and pathways. We present an approach to quantify macroplastic transport and density across the Odaw catchment, Ghana. We divided the catchment into the non-urban riverine, urban riverine, and urban tidal zones. Macroplastic transport and density on riverbanks and land were monitored at ten locations in December 2021. The urban riverine zone had the highest transport, and the urban tidal zone had the highest riverbank and land macroplastic density. Water sachets, soft fragments, and foam fragments were the most abundant items. Our approach aims to be transferable to other catchments globally.

Optimization of rain gauge sampling density for river discharge prediction using Bayesian calibration.

River discharges are often predicted based on a calibrated rainfall-runoff model. The major sources of uncertainty, namely input, parameter and model structural uncertainty must all be taken into account to obtain realistic estimates of the accuracy of discharge predictions. Over the past years, Bayesian calibration has emerged as a suitable method for quantifying uncertainty in model parameters and model structure, where the latter is usually modelled by an additive or multiplicative stochastic term. Recently, much work has also been done to include input uncertainty in the Bayesian framework. However, the use of geostatistical methods for characterizing the prior distribution of the catchment rainfall is underexplored, particularly in combination with assessments of the influence of increasing or decreasing rain gauge network density on discharge prediction accuracy. In this article we integrate geostatistics and Bayesian calibration to analyze the effect of rain gauge density on river discharge prediction accuracy. We calibrated the HBV hydrological model while accounting for input, initial state, model parameter and model structural uncertainty, and also taking uncertainties in the discharge measurements into account. Results for the Thur basin in Switzerland showed that model parameter uncertainty was the main contributor to the joint posterior uncertainty. We also showed that a low rain gauge density is enough for the Bayesian calibration, and that increasing the number of rain gauges improved model prediction until reaching a density of one gauge per 340 km2. While the optimal rain gauge density is case-study specific, we make recommendations on how to handle input uncertainty in Bayesian calibration for river discharge prediction and present the methodology that may be used to carry out such experiments.

Hydrological application of radar rainfall nowcasting in the Netherlands.

Accurate and robust short-term rainfall forecasts (nowcasts) are useful in operational flood forecasting. However, the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall fields make rainfall nowcasting a challenging endeavour. To cope with this variability, nowcasting techniques based on weather radar imagery have been proposed. Here, we employ radar rainfall nowcasting for discharge predictions in three lowland catchments in the Netherlands, with surface areas ranging from 6.5 to 957 km2. Deterministic (Lagrangian persistence) and probabilistic (SBMcast) nowcasting techniques are used to produce short-term rainfall forecasts (up to a few hours ahead), which are used as input for the hydrological model WALRUS. Rainfall forecasts were found to deteriorate with increasing lead time, often due to underestimation. Discharge could be forecasted 25-170 min earlier than without rainfall nowcasting, with the best performance for the largest catchment. When accounting for catchment response time, the best (but most variable) relative performance was found for the smallest catchment. Probabilistic nowcasting effectively accounted for the uncertainty associated with rainfall and discharge forecasts. The uncertainty in rainfall forecasts was found to be largest for the smaller catchments. The uncertainty in how much earlier the discharge could be forecasted (the gain in lead time) ranged from 15 to 50 min.

The evolution of process-based hydrologic models: Historical challenges and the collective quest for physical realism.

The diversity in hydrologic models has historically led to great controversy on the "correct" approach to process-based hydrologic modeling, with debates centered on the adequacy of process parameterizations, data limitations and uncertainty, and computational constraints on model analysis. In this paper, we revisit key modeling challenges on requirements to (1) define suitable model equations, (2) define adequate model parameters, and (3) cope with limitations in computing power. We outline the historical modeling challenges, provide examples of modeling advances that address these challenges, and define outstanding research needs. We illustrate how modeling advances have been made by groups using models of different type and complexity, and we argue for the need to more effectively use our diversity of modeling approaches in order to advance our collective quest for physically realistic hydrologic models.

The Future of Earth Observation in Hydrology.

In just the past five years, the field of Earth observation has progressed beyond the offerings of conventional space agency based platforms to include a plethora of sensing opportunities afforded by CubeSats, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), and smartphone technologies that are being embraced by both for-profit companies and individual researchers. Over the previous decades, space agency efforts have brought forth well-known and immensely useful satellites such as the Landsat series and the Gravity Research and Climate Experiment (GRACE) system, with costs typically on the order of one billion dollars per satellite and with concept-to-launch timelines on the order of two decades (for new missions). More recently, the proliferation of smartphones has helped to miniaturise sensors and energy requirements, facilitating advances in the use of CubeSats that can be launched by the dozens, while providing ultra-high (3-5 m) resolution sensing of the Earth on a daily basis. Start-up companies that did not exist five years ago now operate more satellites in orbit than any space agency, and at costs that are a mere fraction of the cost of traditional satellite missions. With these advances come new space-borne measurements, such as real-time high-definition video for tracking air pollution, storm-cell development, flood propagation, precipitation monitoring, or even for constructing digital surfaces using structure-from-motion techniques. Closer to the surface, measurements from small unmanned drones and tethered balloons have mapped snow depths, floods, and estimated evaporation at sub-meter resolutions, pushing back on spatio-temporal constraints and delivering new process insights. At ground level, precipitation has been measured using signal attenuation between antennae mounted on cell phone towers, while the proliferation of mobile devices has enabled citizen-scientists to catalogue photos of environmental conditions, estimate daily average temperatures from battery state, and sense other hydrologically important variables such as channel depths using commercially available wireless devices. Global internet access is being pursued via high altitude balloons, solar planes, and hundreds of planned satellite launches, providing a means to exploit the Internet of Things as an entirely new measurement domain. Such global access will enable real-time collection of data from billions of smartphones or from remote research platforms. This future will produce petabytes of data that can only be accessed via cloud storage and will require new analytical approaches to interpret. The extent to which today's hydrologic models can usefully ingest such massive data volumes is unclear. Nor is it clear whether this deluge of data will be usefully exploited, either because the measurements are superfluous, inconsistent, not accurate enough, or simply because we lack the capacity to process and analyse them. What is apparent is that the tools and techniques afforded by this array of novel and game-changing sensing platforms present our community with a unique opportunity to develop new insights that advance fundamental aspects of the hydrological sciences. To accomplish this will require more than just an application of the technology: in some cases, it will demand a radical rethink on how we utilise and exploit these new observing systems to enhance our understanding of the Earth and its linked processes.

Country-wide rainfall maps from cellular communication networks.

Accurate and timely surface precipitation measurements are crucial for water resources management, agriculture, weather prediction, climate research, as well as ground validation of satellite-based precipitation estimates. However, the majority of the land surface of the earth lacks such data, and in many parts of the world the density of surface precipitation gauging networks is even rapidly declining. This development can potentially be counteracted by using received signal level data from the enormous number of microwave links used worldwide in commercial cellular communication networks. Along such links, radio signals propagate from a transmitting antenna at one base station to a receiving antenna at another base station. Rain-induced attenuation and, subsequently, path-averaged rainfall intensity can be retrieved from the signal's attenuation between transmitter and receiver. Here, we show how one such a network can be used to retrieve the space-time dynamics of rainfall for an entire country (The Netherlands, ∼35,500 km(2)), based on an unprecedented number of links (∼2,400) and a rainfall retrieval algorithm that can be applied in real time. This demonstrates the potential of such networks for real-time rainfall monitoring, in particular in those parts of the world where networks of dedicated ground-based rainfall sensors are often virtually absent.