COVID-19 vaccination and case fatality rates: a case report in a Brazilian municipality.

Vaccination campaigns played a crucial role in reducing the incidence of COVID-19. However, a scant number of studies evaluated the impact of vaccination on case fatality rates (CFRs), including in Brazil. Our study aimed to compare CFRs according to vaccination status among subjects living in Arapongas (Paraná State, Brazil), considering the age composition of the population. Several strategies adopted by the Arapongas City Hall to minimize the spread of the virus were also elaborated upon. We accessed the 2021 database of the Arapongas Municipal Health Department, in which a total of 16,437 confirmed cases and 425 deaths were reported. The CFR was calculated as the ratio between COVID-19 deaths and the number of confirmed cases. Differences in age composition between unvaccinated and fully vaccinated individuals were observed in our study. Considering that CFR is a crude indicator and is highly sensitive to the age composition of the population, we adopted the average age distribution of confirmed cases among the three vaccination statuses (unvaccinated, partially, and fully) as a standard age distribution. The age-standardized CFR for unvaccinated and fully vaccinated groups were 4.55% and 2.42%, respectively. Fully vaccinated individuals showed lower age-specific CFRs in all age groups above 60 years than unvaccinated populations. Our findings strengthen the role of vaccination as a critical measure for preventing deaths among infected people and is particularly important to the ongoing reassessment of public health interventions and policies.

Probabilistic survival modeling in health research: an assessment using cohort data from hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a Latin American city.

Probabilistic survival methods have been used in health research to analyze risk factors and adverse health outcomes associated with COVID-19. The aim of this study was to employ a probabilistic model selected among three distributions (exponential, Weibull, and lognormal) to investigate the time from hospitalization to death and determine the mortality risks among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. A retrospective cohort study was conducted for patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 within 30 days in Londrina, Brazil, between January 2021 and February 2022, registered in the database for severe acute respiratory infections (SIVEP-Gripe). Graphical and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) methods were used to compare the efficiency of the three probabilistic models. The results from the final model were presented as hazard and event time ratios. Our study comprised of 7,684 individuals, with an overall case fatality rate of 32.78%. Data suggested that older age, male sex, severe comorbidity score, intensive care unit admission, and invasive ventilation significantly increased risks for in-hospital mortality. Our study highlights the conditions that confer higher risks for adverse clinical outcomes attributed to COVID-19. The step-by-step process for selecting appropriate probabilistic models may be extended to other investigations in health research to provide more reliable evidence on this topic.

COVID-19 vaccination and case fatality rates: a case report in a Brazilian municipality / Vacinação contra a COVID-19 e taxas de letalidade: relato de caso em uma cidade brasileira / Vacunación contra el COVID-19 y tasas de letalidad: reporte de caso en una ciudad brasileña

Vaccination campaigns played a crucial role in reducing the incidence of COVID-19. However, a scant number of studies evaluated the impact of vaccination on case fatality rates (CFRs), including in Brazil. Our study aimed to compare CFRs according to vaccination status among subjects living in Arapongas (Paraná State, Brazil), considering the age composition of the population. Several strategies adopted by the Arapongas City Hall to minimize the spread of the virus were also elaborated upon. We accessed the 2021 database of the Arapongas Municipal Health Department, in which a total of 16,437 confirmed cases and 425 deaths were reported. The CFR was calculated as the ratio between COVID-19 deaths and the number of confirmed cases. Differences in age composition between unvaccinated and fully vaccinated individuals were observed in our study. Considering that CFR is a crude indicator and is highly sensitive to the age composition of the population, we adopted the average age distribution of confirmed cases among the three vaccination statuses (unvaccinated, partially, and fully) as a standard age distribution. The age-standardized CFR for unvaccinated and fully vaccinated groups were 4.55% and 2.42%, respectively. Fully vaccinated individuals showed lower age-specific CFRs in all age groups above 60 years than unvaccinated populations. Our findings strengthen the role of vaccination as a critical measure for preventing deaths among infected people and is particularly important to the ongoing reassessment of public health interventions and policies.

As campanhas de vacinação desempenharam um papel crucial na redução da incidência da COVID-19. No entanto, um número escasso de estudos avaliou o impacto da vacinação nas taxas de letalidade, inclusive no Brasil. Este estudo teve como objetivo comparar as taxas de letalidade de acordo com a situação vacinal dos residentes do Município de Arapongas (Paraná, Brasil), considerando a composição etária da população. Várias estratégias adotadas pela Prefeitura Municipal para minimizar a propagação do vírus também foram elaboradas. Acessou-se a base de dados de 2021 da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Arapongas, onde foram notificados 16.437 casos confirmados e 425 óbitos. A taxa de letalidade foi calculada como a razão entre as mortes por COVID-19 e o número de casos confirmados. Este estudo inédito observou diferenças na composição etária entre indivíduos não vacinados e totalmente vacinados. Considerando que a taxa de letalidade é um indicador bruto e altamente sensível à composição etária da população, adotou-se a distribuição etária média dos casos confirmados entre os três níveis vacinais (não vacinados, parcialmente vacinados e completamente vacinados) como distribuição etária padrão. A taxa de letalidade padronizada por idade para os não vacinados e completamente vacinados foi de 4,55% e 2,42%, respectivamente. Indivíduos completamente vacinados apresentaram menores taxas de letalidade específicas por idade em todas as faixas etárias acima de 60 anos em comparação às populações não vacinadas. Estes achados fortalecem o papel da vacinação como uma medida essencial para a prevenção de mortes entre pessoas infectadas e é de particular importância para a reavaliação contínua das intervenções e políticas de saúde pública.

Las campañas de vacunación juegan un papel clave en la reducción de la propagación del COVID-19. Sin embargo, pocos estudios evalúan el impacto de la vacunación en las tasas de letalidad, incluso en Brasil. Este estudio tuvo por objetivo comparar las tasas de letalidad según el estado de vacunación de los residentes de Arapongas (Paraná, Brasil) a partir de la composición por grupo de edad de la población. El Ayuntamiento Municipal aplicó varias estrategias para mitigar la propagación del virus. Se accedió a la base de datos de 2021 del Departamento de Salud de Arapongas, donde se reportaron 16.437 casos confirmados y 425 defunciones. Se calculó la tasa de letalidad como la relación entre las muertes por COVID-19 y el número de casos confirmados. Este estudio inédito evaluó las diferencias en la composición por grupo de edad entre individuos no vacunados y los individuos totalmente vacunados. Teniendo en cuenta que tasa de letalidad es un indicador bruto y muy sensible a la composición por grupo de edad de la población, se adoptó la distribución estándar por grupo de edad de los casos confirmados entre los tres niveles de vacunación (no vacunados, parcialmente vacunados y totalmente vacunados). La tasa de letalidad estandarizada por edad para los no vacunados y los totalmente vacunados fue del 4,55% y del 2,42%, respectivamente. Los individuos totalmente vacunados tenían más baja tasa de letalidad por grupo de edad en todos los grupos de edad superiores a los 60 años en comparación con las poblaciones no vacunadas. Estos hallazgos confirman el papel de la vacunación como una medida esencial de prevención de muertes entre los infectados y es importante para la reevaluación en curso de las intervenciones y políticas de salud pública.

Machine learning and comorbidity network analysis for hospitalized patients with COVID-19 in a city in Southern Brazil.

The large amount of data generated during the COVID-19 pandemic requires advanced tools for the long-term prediction of risk factors associated with COVID-19 mortality with higher accuracy. Machine learning (ML) methods directly address this topic and are essential tools to guide public health interventions. Here, we used ML to investigate the importance of demographic and clinical variables on COVID-19 mortality. We also analyzed how comorbidity networks are structured according to age groups. We conducted a retrospective study of COVID-19 mortality with hospitalized patients from Londrina, Parana, Brazil, registered in the database for severe acute respiratory infections (SIVEP-Gripe), from January 2021 to February 2022. We tested four ML models to predict the COVID-19 outcome: Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and XGBoost. We also constructed a comorbidity network to investigate the impact of co-occurring comorbidities on COVID-19 mortality. Our study comprised 8358 hospitalized patients, of whom 2792 (33.40%) died. The XGBoost model achieved excellent performance (ROC-AUC = 0.90). Both permutation method and SHAP values highlighted the importance of age, ventilatory support status, and intensive care unit admission as key features in predicting COVID-19 outcomes. The comorbidity networks for old deceased patients are denser than those for young patients. In addition, the co-occurrence of heart disease and diabetes may be the most important combination to predict COVID-19 mortality, regardless of age and sex. This work presents a valuable combination of machine learning and comorbidity network analysis to predict COVID-19 outcomes. Reliable evidence on this topic is crucial for guiding the post-pandemic response and assisting in COVID-19 care planning and provision.

The impact of COVID-19 vaccination on case fatality rates in a city in Southern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have established that vaccination plays a significant role in reducing COVID-19-related deaths. Here, we investigated differences in COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFRs) among vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, and analyzed whether the age composition of confirmed cases has a significant effect on the variations in the observed CFRs across these groups. METHODS: The study considered 59,853 confirmed cases and 1,687 deaths from COVID-19, reported between January 1 to October 20, 2021, by the Health Department of Londrina, a city in Southern Brazil. We used Negative Binomial regression models to estimate CFRs according to vaccination status and age range. RESULTS: There are significant differences between the CFR for fully vaccinated and unvaccinated populations (IRR = 0.596, 95% CI [0.460 - 0.772], P < .001). Vaccinated populations experience fatality rates 40.4% lower than non-vaccinated. In addition, the age composition of confirmed cases explains more than two-thirds of the variation in the CFR between these 2 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our novel findings reinforce the importance of vaccination as an essential public health measure for reducing COVID-19 fatality rates in all age groups. The results also provide means for accurately assessing differences in CFRs across vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. Such assessment is essential to inform and determine appropriate containment and mitigation interventions in Brazil and elsewhere.

Meteorological parameters and cases of COVID-19 in Brazilian cities: an observational study.

Meteorological parameters modulate transmission of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, the causative agent related to coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) development. However, findings across the globe have been inconsistent attributed to several confounding factors. The aim of the present study was to investigate the relationship between reported meteorological parameters from July 1 to October 31, 2020, and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 4 Brazilian cities: São Paulo, the largest city with the highest number of cases in Brazil, and the cities with greater number of cases in the state of Parana during the study period (Curitiba, Londrina and Maringa). The assessment of meteorological factors with confirmed COVID-19 cases included atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar irradiation, sunlight, dew point temperature, and total precipitation. The 7- and 15-day moving averages of confirmed COVID-19 cases were obtained for each city. Pearson's correlation coefficients showed significant correlations between COVID-19 cases and all meteorological parameters, except for total precipitation, with the strongest correlation with maximum wind speed (0.717, <0.001) in São Paulo. Regression tree analysis demonstrated that the largest number of confirmed COVID-19 cases was associated with wind speed (between ≥0.3381 and <1.173 m/s), atmospheric pressure (<930.5mb), and solar radiation (<17.98e+3). Lower number of cases was observed for wind speed <0.3381 m/s and temperature <23.86°C. Our results encourage the use of meteorological information as a critical component in future risk assessment models.

Risk factors associated with COVID-19-induced death in patients hospitalized in intensive care units (ICUs) in a city in Southern Brazil.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this research was to address risk factors associated with death after hospitalization in intensive care units (ICUs) in 728 COVID-19 patients in Londrina, the second most populated city in the State of Paraná - Brazil, between March and December 2020. METHODS: Statistical analysis, including multiple logistic regression was performed to identify risk factors associated with death in these patients. RESULTS: The results showed that age (60 years or more, O.R. = 3.13, C.I. 95% [2.02; 4.84]), days in the ICU (11 days or more, O.R. = 1.76, C.I. 95% [1.16; 2.66]), neurological diseases (O.R. = 2.15, C.I. 95% [1.07; 4.31]), pneumopathy (O.R = 2.19, C.I. 95% [1.01; 4.82]), diabetes (O.R. = 1.55, C.I. 95% [1.03; 2.32]), and kidney disease (O.R. = 2.27, C.I. 95% [1.18; 4.70]) were associated with increased risk for death from COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Knowing the risk factors associated with death after ICUs hospitalization is useful for identifying the most vulnerable groups, as well as for defining vaccination priorities, considering its scarcity in many parts of the world, mainly in underdeveloped countries, including Brazil.

An updated systematic review on the association between Cd exposure, blood pressure and hypertension.

BACKGROUND: Since the first report by Perry et al. (1955), most studies affirmed the hypertensive effects of cadmium (Cd) in humans. Nonetheless, conclusions between studies remain inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to reevaluate the evidence for a potential relationship between Cd exposure and altered blood pressure and/or hypertension, focusing on studies published between January 2010 and March 2020. METHODS: We reviewed all observational studies from database searches (PubMed and SCOPUS) on Cd exposure and blood pressure or hypertension. We extracted information from studies that provided sufficient data on population characteristics, smoking status, exposure, outcomes, and design. RESULTS: Thirty-eight studies met our inclusion criteria; of those, twenty-nine were cross sectional, three case control, five cohort and one interventional study. Blood or urinary Cd levels were the most commonly used biomarkers. CONCLUSIONS: A positive association between blood Cd levels and blood pressure and/or hypertension was identified in numerous studies at different settings. Limited number of representative population-based studies of never-smokers was observed, which may have confounded our conclusions. The association between urinary Cd and blood pressure and/or hypertension remains uncertain due to conflicting results, including inverse relationships with lack of strong mechanistic support. We point to the urgent need for additional longitudinal studies to confirm our findings.

N-acetylcysteine as an adjunctive treatment for smoking cessation: a randomized clinical trial.

OBJECTIVE: This randomized controlled trial examined the efficacy and safety of N-acetylcysteine as an adjunctive treatment for smoking cessation. METHODS: Heavy smokers were recruited from smoking cessation treatment for this 12- week randomized controlled trial. Eligible tobacco use disorder outpatients (n=34) were randomized to N-acetylcysteine or placebo plus first-line treatment. Abstinence was verified by exhaled carbon monoxide (COexh). The assessment scales included the Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence, the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale, the Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale, the Minnesota Nicotine Withdrawal Scale, and the Medication Adherence Rating Scale. We also assessed anthropometrics, blood pressure, lipid profile, and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor (sTNF-R) levels 1 and 2. RESULTS: First-line treatment for smoking cessation plus adjunctive N-acetylcysteine or placebo significantly reduced COexh (p < 0.01). In the N-acetylcysteine group, no significant changes were found in nicotine withdrawal symptoms, depressive and anxiety symptoms, anthropometric measures, blood pressure, or glucose compared to placebo. However, there was a significant reduction in sTNF-R2 levels between baseline and week 12 in the N-acetylcysteine group. CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the need to associate N-acetylcysteine with first-line treatment for smoking cessation, since combined treatment may affect inflammation and metabolism components. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02420418.

Blood cadmium levels and sources of exposure in an adult urban population in southern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Cadmium (Cd) is a toxic metal that is widely present in the environment due to geologic and anthropogenic sources. Exposures to high Cd levels may cause nephrotoxicity, carcinogenicity, pulmonary and cardiovascular disease, among others. The goal of this study was to investigate in an adult urban population whether an association exists between sources and levels of Cd exposure and blood Cd concentrations. METHODS: Using a census-based design, a total of 959 adults, aged 40 years or older, were randomly selected. Information on socio-demographics, dietary, and lifestyle background was obtained by household interviews. Blood Cd levels were measured by inductively coupled-plasma mass spectrometry. Geometric means (GM) (95% CI) and the 50th percentile were determined, stratified by sex, age, race, education, income class, smoking status, consumption of vegetables, red meat and milk, occupation and blood pressure. To assess the association between Cd exposure and the aforementioned variables, we estimated the geometric mean ratio (GMR) (95%CI) of blood Cd concentrations. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: The geometric mean (95%CI) of blood Cd levels in the total population was 0.25 (0.22, 0.27) ug/dL. In a univariate analysis, significantly higher blood Cd levels were found in men (p < 0.001), current and former smokers (p < 0.001), alcohol drinkers (p < 0.001), those who never or almost never consumed milk (p < 0.001), and in subjects with higher diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.03). Significant correlations were found between the number of cigarettes consumed daily and blood Cd levels. Multivariate analysis confirmed higher blood Cd concentrations were associated with alcohol consumption (GMR 95%CI = 1.28, 1.04-1.59) and in former and current smokers (GMR 95% IC = 1.33, 1.06-1.67 and 4.23, 3.24-5.52, respectively). Our results shed novel information on variables associated with blood Cd levels in an urban Brazilian population, and should encourage additional research to prevent environmental Cd exposure, both in Brazil and globally.

Effect of the platelet-rich plasma covering of polypropylene mesh on oxidative stress, inflammation, and adhesions.

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: Polypropylene mesh (PPM) is often used for urogynecological repair; however, it can cause complications. An approach to reduce complications is to coat PPM with anti-inflammatory and wound-healing molecules. Platelet-rich plasma (PRP) is inexpensive and improves wound healing. Therefore, we evaluated whether covering PPM with PRP could reduce inflammation, adhesion, and oxidative stress (OS) in rabbits. METHODS: The primary objective was to evaluate OS, and the secondary objectives were to evaluate inflammation and adhesion. PRP-coated PPM was implanted on the right side of the abdominal cavity of 12 female New Zealand rabbits, in the interface between the hypodermis and peritoneum. An uncoverated PPM was implanted in the other side. Twelve rabbits served as the sham group; all animals were euthanized after 30 or 60 days. Inflammatory parameters were myeloperoxidase (MPO) and N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG) activities. OS was evaluated by measuring the ferric-reducing antioxidant power, the free-radical-reducing ability of 3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulfonic acid [2,2'-azino-bis (ABTS)], reduced glutathione levels, and superoxide anion production. Adhesion was measured using tenacity and Diamond scales (the latter of which grades adhesions according to their extent) Inflammation and OS were analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA), followed by Tukey's test. The Mann-Whitney test was used to evaluate adhesions, and analysis of the sham group was conducted using Kruskal-Wallis test. RESULTS: No significant differences were observed in parameters of adhesions. After 60 days, PRP-coverated PPM presented a decrease in MPO and NAG activities. Furthermore, decreased OS and increased antioxidant levels were observed in PRP-coverated PPM samples. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction of OS and inflammatory responses indicates that PRP-covered PPM is a promising therapeutic approach.

The effects of Pilates method on pelvic floor muscle strength in patients with post-prostatectomy urinary incontinence: A randomized clinical trial.

AIMS: To assess the effects of a Pilates exercise program compared to conventional pelvic floor muscle training (PFMT) protocol on pelvic floor muscle strength (PFMS) in patients with post-prostatectomy urinary incontinence. METHODS: Patients were randomized into three treatment groups (G1: Pilates, G2: electrical stimulation combined with PFMT, and G3: control group). Duration of therapy was 10 weeks. Baseline assessment included the 24 h pad-test and the ICI-Q questionnaire. PFMS was measured using a manometric perineometry device at baseline and 4 months after radical prostatectomy (RP). The level of significance was P < 0.05. RESULTS: One hundred twenty three patients were randomized and 104 patients completed the study protocol (G1: n = 34; G2: n = 35; G3: n = 35). Post-treatment assessment showed statistically significant improvements in maximum strength in G2, increased endurance in G1 and G2, and increment of muscle power in all three groups (P < 0.05). However, there were no significant differences in the mean changes of maximum strength, endurance, and muscle power between groups after treatment (P > 0.05). G1 and G2 achieved a higher number of fully continent patients than G3 (P < 0.05). At the end of treatment, 59% of patients in G1, 54% in G2, and 26% in G3 were continent (no pads/day). CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in PFMS parameters were distinct among active treatment groups versus controls, but did not predict recovery of urinary continence at final assessment. The Pilates method promoted similar outcomes in the proportion of fully continent patients when compared to conventional PFMT 4 months after RP.

Colistin-resistant Enterobacteriaceae infections: clinical and molecular characterization and analysis of in vitro synergy.

We described 27 polyclonal colistin-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (MIC 4-16 µg/mL) infections (12 pneumonia, 12 urinary tract infection (UTI), two Bacteremia, and one skin/soft tissue infection) in which 74% harbored KPC. The isolates were polyclonal, 6 STs were identified and the colistin resistance was due to chromosome mutations. Eight patients with UTI received monotherapy, and combination therapy was given to 19 patients. Overall mortality was 37%. In vitro synergy using time-kill assay was observed in 14 of 19 (74%) isolates tested; the synergistic effect was observed for almost all isolates for the combination of three drugs: colistin, amikacin, and tigecycline. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed no significant difference comparing combination therapy with 2, 3, or more drugs and risk factors associated with death were dialysis and shock. These findings reinforce the fact that colistin in combination with other classes of drugs can be useful in treating infections caused by colistin-resistant CRE.