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BACKGROUND: The Medicines Intelligence (MedIntel) Data Platform is an anonymised linked data resource designed to generate real-world evidence on prescribed medicine use, effectiveness, safety, costs and cost-effectiveness in Australia. RESULTS: The platform comprises Medicare-eligible people who are ≥18 years and residing in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, any time during 2005-2020, with linked administrative data on dispensed prescription medicines (Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme), health service use (Medicare Benefits Schedule), emergency department visits (NSW Emergency Department Data Collection), hospitalisations (NSW Admitted Patient Data Collection) plus death (National Death Index) and cancer registrations (NSW Cancer Registry). Data are currently available to 2022, with approval to update the cohort and data collections annually. The platform includes 7.4 million unique people across all years, covering 36.9% of the Australian adult population; the overall population increased from 4.8 M in 2005 to 6.0 M in 2020. As of 1 January 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year), the cohort had a mean age of 48.7 years (51.1% female), with most people (4.4 M, 74.7%) residing in a major city. In 2019, 4.4 M people (73.3%) were dispensed a medicine, 1.2 M (20.5%) were hospitalised, 5.3 M (89.4%) had a GP or specialist appointment, and 54 003 people died. Anti-infectives were the most prevalent medicines dispensed to the cohort in 2019 (43.1%), followed by nervous system (32.2%) and cardiovascular system medicines (30.2%). CONCLUSION: The MedIntel Data Platform creates opportunities for national and international research collaborations and enables us to address contemporary clinically- and policy-relevant research questions about quality use of medicines and health outcomes in Australia and globally.
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Bases de Dados Factuais , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Idoso , New South Wales/epidemiologia , Adulto , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Análise Custo-Benefício , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Medicamentos sob Prescrição/uso terapêutico , Medicamentos sob Prescrição/economia , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Farmacoepidemiologia/métodosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Systematic evaluations of cancer risk in people living with HIV or AIDS (PLHIV) and solid organ transplant recipients provide unique insights into the role of the immune system in cancer development. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we expand previous analyses of cancer risk for these two immunocompromised populations. METHODS: We considered studies published in English and listed on PubMed or Embase up to July 1, 2022. Studies were eligible for inclusion if they used population-based registries and compared cancer incidence in PLHIV or solid organ transplant recipients with the general population in the same geographical area. We extracted the number of observed site-specific cancers and expected cases and calculated meta-standardised incidence ratios for cancer within PLHIV and solid organ transplant recipients. In solid organ transplant recipients meta-standardised incidence ratios were compared by organ type. This project is registered on PROSPERO, CRD42022366679. FINDINGS: 46 studies in PLHIV and 67 in solid organ transplant recipients were included in the analysis. Meta-standardised incidence ratios for cancers associated with human papillomavirus were increased in both populations; the highest meta-standardised incidence ratio in PLHIV was anal cancer (37·28 [95% CI 23·65-58·75], I2=97·4%), and in solid organ transplant recipients was cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (45·87 [31·70-66·38], I2=99·0%). Meta-standardised incidence ratios were significantly increased for most non-HPV viral-infection-related cancers in both populations; the highest standard incidence ratios were for Kaposi sarcoma (PLHIV: 801·52 [95% CI 200·25-3208·13], I2=100·0%; solid organ transplant recipients: 47·31 [23·09-96·95], I2=87·7%) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (32·53 [19·64-53·87], I2=99·8%; 10·24 [8·48-12·35], I2=94·9%). Eight types of cancer with no known viral cause showed an increased risk in solid organ transplant recipients only; no cancer type showed increased risk in PLHIV only. INTERPRETATION: Cancer risk was increased for a range of infection-related cancers in both PLHIV and solid organ transplant recipients, but divergent results in these and other cancers have emerged. The cancer risk patterns probably reflect variances in the degree of impaired immunity, exposure to carcinogenic viruses, and perhaps exposure to carcinogenic immunosuppressive agents. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health.
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Infecções por HIV , Neoplasias , Transplante de Órgãos , Transplantados , Humanos , Transplante de Órgãos/efeitos adversos , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Infecções por HIV/complicações , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Incidência , Transplantados/estatística & dados numéricos , Hospedeiro Imunocomprometido , Fatores de Risco , Medição de Risco , Feminino , MasculinoRESUMO
This cohort profile describes one of the largest linked datasets in the world concerning the health of people with intellectual disability. The cohort comprises a retrospective group of 100,089 individuals with intellectual disability who received disability and/or health services in New South Wales, Australia. Of these participants, 34% were female, with a median age at cohort entry of 3 years (interquartile range, 0 to 19 years). A separate comparator cohort included 455,677 individuals, matched by 5-year age group, sex, and residential postcode at a 5:1 ratio. Initial results indicate that between 2001 and 2018, people with intellectual disability experienced more than double the rate of hospitalisations (538 versus 235 per 1000 person-years), as well as markedly higher rates of emergency department presentations (707 versus 379 per 1000 person-years) and use of ambulatory mental health services (1012 versus 157 per 1000 person-years), relative to the comparator cohort. The largest disparities in hospital admissions were for mental disorders, dialysis, and diseases of the nervous system and sense organs. Furthermore, individuals with intellectual disability had more than double the rate of dispensed medications found in the comparator cohort. Of these medications, 46.6% were for the treatment of nervous system conditions, as opposed to 24.7% for the comparator cohort. The mean age at death was 52 years (standard deviation [SD], 19 years) for people with intellectual disability and 64 years (SD, 22 years) for the comparator participants.
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Researchers interested in causal questions must deal with two sources of error: random error (random deviation from the true mean value of a distribution), and bias (systematic deviance from the true mean value due to extraneous factors). For some causal questions, randomization is not feasible, and observational studies are necessary. Bias poses a substantial threat to the validity of observational research and can have important consequences for health policy developed from the findings. The current piece describes bias and its sources, outlines proposed methods to estimate its impacts in an observational study, and demonstrates how these methods may be used to inform debate on the causal relationship between medically assisted reproduction (MAR) and health outcomes, using cancer as an example. In doing so, we aim to enlighten researchers who work with observational data, especially regarding the health effects of MAR and infertility, on the pitfalls of bias, and how to address them. We hope that, in combination with the provided example, we can convince readers that estimating the impact of bias in causal epidemiologic research is not only important but necessary to inform the development of robust health policy and clinical practice recommendations.
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Viés , Técnicas de Reprodução Assistida , Humanos , Técnicas de Reprodução Assistida/estatística & dados numéricos , Técnicas de Reprodução Assistida/efeitos adversos , Causalidade , Feminino , Estudos Epidemiológicos , Infertilidade/epidemiologia , Infertilidade/terapia , Estudos Observacionais como Assunto , Neoplasias/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Biovigilance concerns are in tension with the need to increase organ donation. Cancer transmission risk from donor to recipient may be overestimated, as non-transmission events are rarely reported. We sought to estimate melanoma transmission risk in deceased organ donation and identify missed opportunities for donation in an Australian cohort with high melanoma prevalence. METHODS: We used a population-based approach and linked deceased organ donors, transplant recipients, and potential donors forgone, 2010-2018, with the Central Cancer Registry (CCR), 1976-2018. We identified melanomas using ICD-O-3 classification, assessed the probability of transmission, and compared suspected melanoma history in potential donors forgone with melanoma notifications in the CCR. RESULTS: There were 9 of 993 donors with melanoma in CCR; 4 in situ low-risk and 5 invasive high-to-unacceptable risk. Four were unrecognized before donation. Of 16 transplant recipients at risk, we found 0 of 14 transmission events (2 recipients had insufficient follow-up). Of 35 of 3588 potential donors forgone for melanoma risk alone, 17 were otherwise suitable for donation; 6 of 35 had no melanoma in CCR, 2 of 35 had in situ melanomas and 9 of 35 had thin invasive melanomas (localized, ≤0.8 mm thickness). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings contribute to current evidence that suggests donors with melanomas of low metastatic potential may provide an opportunity to safely increase organ donation and so access to transplantation.
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Melanoma , Sistema de Registros , Neoplasias Cutâneas , Doadores de Tecidos , Transplantados , Humanos , Melanoma/epidemiologia , Doadores de Tecidos/estatística & dados numéricos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Neoplasias Cutâneas/epidemiologia , Transplantados/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores de Risco , Idoso , Transplante de Órgãos/efeitos adversos , Medição de Risco , Austrália/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Adulto Jovem , Obtenção de Tecidos e Órgãos , Seleção do DoadorRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS: The population with kidney failure is at increased risk of cancer and associated mortality. Relative survival can provide insight into the excess mortality, directly or indirectly, attributed to cancer in the population with kidney failure. METHODS: We estimated relative survival for people all ages receiving dialysis (n = 4089) and kidney transplant recipients (n = 3253) with de novo cancer, and for the general population with cancer in Australia and New Zealand (n = 3 043 166) over the years 1980-2019. The entire general population was the reference group for background mortality, adjusted for sex, age, calendar year and country. We used Poisson regression to quantify excess mortality ratios. RESULTS: Five-year relative survival for all-site cancer was markedly lower than the general population for people receiving dialysis (0.25, 95%CI:0.23-0.26) and kidney transplant recipients (0.55, 95%CI:0.53-0.57). In dialysis, excess mortality was more than double (2.16, 95%CI:2.08-2.25) that of the general population with cancer and for kidney transplant recipients 1.34 higher (95%CI:1.27-2.41). There was no difference in excess mortality from lung cancer between people with kidney failure and the general population with cancer. Comparatively, there was a significant survival deficit for people with kidney failure, compared to the general population with cancer, for melanoma, breast cancer and prostate cancers. CONCLUSION: Decreased cancer survival in kidney failure may reflect differences in multi-morbidity burden, reduced access to treatment, or greater harm from or reduced efficacy of treatments. Our findings support research aimed at investigating these hypotheses.
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BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic evidence suggests an inverse association between sun exposure and follicular lymphoma risk. METHODS: We conducted an Australian population-based family case-control study based on 666 cases and 459 controls (288 related, 171 unrelated). Participants completed a lifetime residence and work calendar and recalled outdoor hours on weekdays, weekends, and holidays in the warmer and cooler months at ages 10, 20, 30, and 40 years, and clothing types worn in the warmer months. We used a group-based trajectory modeling approach to identify outdoor hour trajectories over time and examined associations with follicular lymphoma risk using logistic regression. RESULTS: We observed an inverse association between follicular lymphoma risk and several measures of high lifetime sun exposure, particularly intermittent exposure (weekends, holidays). Associations included reduced risk with increasing time outdoors on holidays in the warmer months [highest category OR = 0.56; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.42-0.76; Ptrend < 0.01], high outdoor hours on weekends in the warmer months (highest category OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.52-0.96), and increasing time outdoors in the warmer and cooler months combined (highest category OR = 0.66; 95% CI, 0.50-0.91; Ptrend 0.01). Risk was reduced for high outdoor hour maintainers in the warmer months across the decade years (OR = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.53-0.96). CONCLUSIONS: High total and intermittent sun exposure, particularly in the warmer months, may be protective against the development of follicular lymphoma. IMPACT: Although sun exposure is not recommended as a cancer control policy, confirming this association may provide insights regarding the future control of this intractable malignancy.
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Linfoma Folicular , Neoplasias Cutâneas , Humanos , Neoplasias Cutâneas/epidemiologia , Neoplasias Cutâneas/etiologia , Linfoma Folicular/epidemiologia , Linfoma Folicular/etiologia , Luz Solar/efeitos adversos , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Austrália/epidemiologia , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
This systematic review examines the relationship with multiple myeloma (MM) risk for sunlight and vitamin D related exposures, including vitamin D supplementation, circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration, personal ultraviolet B radiation exposure, ambient solar irradiance and vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene polymorphisms We conducted a search for terms related to multiple myeloma, vitamin D, vitamin D receptor, ultraviolet radiation, sunlight, and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) using Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane CENTRAL. Studies were assessed for risk of bias and quality using the RoB 2.0, ROBINS-E or Q-Genie tools. We identified 13 eligible studies: one randomised controlled trial, two cohort studies, and ten case-control studies, including one nested case-control study and one meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies. We conducted a qualitative synthesis; quantitative synthesis was not appropriate due to study heterogeneity and the small number of studies identified. There was insufficient evidence to support an effect of any sunlight or vitamin D related exposure on MM risk. No polymorphisms in VDR were found to be strongly related to risk for people of European ancestry. Of the identified studies, many had high risk of bias or were of lower quality. Few studies have investigated the association between sunlight and vitamin D related exposures and multiple myeloma risk. The scarcity of high-quality studies makes it difficult to evaluate potential effects of these exposures on MM risk. Further research is necessary to investigate the influence of vitamin D related exposures on risk of multiple myeloma..
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Mieloma Múltiplo , Receptores de Calcitriol , Humanos , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Estudo de Associação Genômica Ampla , Mieloma Múltiplo/etiologia , Mieloma Múltiplo/genética , Polimorfismo de Nucleotídeo Único , Receptores de Calcitriol/genética , Luz Solar/efeitos adversos , Raios Ultravioleta , Vitamina D/genéticaRESUMO
Background: Few studies have examined effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against COVID-19 and all-cause mortality across different pandemic periods in 2022. Methods: We used linked whole-of-population data from the 2021 Australian Census, Australian Immunisation Register, death registrations and other national datasets including migration data. Among 3.8 million adults aged 65+ years and >170,000 aged care residents, we used survival analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 specific mortality and all-cause mortality, by vaccine dose and time since receipt, adjusted for age, sex and other factors. We also estimated absolute COVID-19 mortality rates. Findings: From January-May 2022 (Omicron BA.1/2), 3250 COVID-19 deaths occurred; from June-November (Omicron BA.4/5) 3185 COVID-19 deaths occurred. During January-May, VE of a 3rd COVID-19 vaccine dose within 3 months was 93% (95% CI 93-94%) whilst VE of a 2nd dose >6 months since receipt was 34% (26-42%). During June-November, VE of a 4th COVID-19 vaccine dose within 3 months was 84% (82-86%) whilst VE of a 3rd dose >6 months since receipt was 56% (50-62%). VE estimates for aged care residents were similar, but absolute risk reductions were substantially greater. During June-November 2022, for all-cause mortality, VE of a 4th dose within 3 months was 58% (56-59%) whilst VE of a 3rd dose >6 months since receipt was 19% (16-22%). Interpretations: COVID-19 vaccination is highly effective against COVID-19 mortality among older adults although effectiveness wanes with time since the last dose. Our findings emphasise the importance of continuing to administer booster doses, particularly to those at highest risk. Funding: This study was funded by the Health Economics Research Division in the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care.
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OBJECTIVES: We aimed to examine the relationship between occupational exposure to extremely low-frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MFs) and follicular lymphoma (FL) risk. METHODS: We conducted a family case-control study between 2011 and 2016 in Australia and included 681 cases. Controls were either a family member of cases (related (n=294), unrelated (n=179)) or were unrelated recruited for a similarly designed Australian multiple myeloma study (n=711). We obtained detailed job histories using lifetime work calendars. We assigned exposure to ELF-MFs using an enhanced job exposure matrix, with a lag period of 10 years. We examined associations with FL risk using logistic regression accounting for relatedness between cases and controls. We performed sensitivity analyses including by control type, by sex, complete case analyses, ELF-MF exposure percentiles in addition to quartiles, ELF-MF exposure in the maximum exposed job, a shorter lag period (1 year) and the cumulative exposure in the most recent time period (1-9 years). RESULTS: We observed no association with the average intensity, duration or lifetime cumulative exposure to occupational ELF-MF exposure in the primary or sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings do not support an association between occupational ELF-MF exposure and FL risk. Although the inclusion of family members as part of the larger control group may have biased our risk estimates towards the null, findings were similar in sensitivity analyses restricted to cases and unrelated controls. Further research incorporating enhanced exposure assessment to ELF-MF is warranted to inform occupational safety regulations and any potential role in lymphomagenesis.
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Linfoma Folicular , Exposição Ocupacional , Humanos , Linfoma Folicular/epidemiologia , Linfoma Folicular/etiologia , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Fatores de Risco , Austrália/epidemiologia , Campos Magnéticos , Exposição Ocupacional/efeitos adversos , Campos Eletromagnéticos/efeitos adversosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: While remaining incurable, median overall survival for MM now exceeds 5 years. Yet few studies have investigated how modifiable lifestyle factors influence survival. We investigate whether adiposity, diet, alcohol, or smoking are associated with MM-related fatality. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We recruited 760 incident cases of MM via cancer registries in two Australian states during 2010-2016. Participants returned questionnaires on health and lifestyle. Follow-up ended in 2020. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for lifestyle exposures and risk of all-cause and MM-specific fatality. RESULTS: Higher pre-diagnosis Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) scores were associated with reduced MM-specific fatality (per 10-unit score, HR = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.70-0.99). Pre-diagnosis alcohol consumption was inversely associated with MM-specific fatality, compared with nondrinkers (0.1-20 g per day, HR = 0.59, 95%CI = 0.39-0.90; >20 g per day, HR = 0.67, 95%CI = 0.40-1.13). Tobacco smoking was associated with increased all-cause fatality compared with never smoking (former smokers: HR = 1.44, 95%CI = 1.10-1.88; current smokers: HR = 1.30, 95%CI = 0.80-2.10). There was no association between pre-enrollment body mass index (BMI) and MM-specific or all-cause fatality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support established recommendations for healthy diets and against smoking. Higher quality diet, as measured by the AHEI, may improve survival post diagnosis with MM.
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Mieloma Múltiplo , Humanos , Mieloma Múltiplo/diagnóstico , Mieloma Múltiplo/epidemiologia , Mieloma Múltiplo/etiologia , Austrália/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Fumar/efeitos adversos , Fumar/epidemiologia , Estilo de VidaRESUMO
Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer are leading causes of death and people with cancer are at higher risk of developing CVD than the general population. Many cancer medicines have cardiotoxic effects but the size of the population exposed to these potentially cardiotoxic medicines is not known. We aimed to determine the prevalence of exposure to potentially cardiotoxic cancer medicines in Australia. Methods: We identified potentially cardiotoxic systemic cancer medicines through searching the literature and registered product information documents. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of Australians dispensed potentially cardiotoxic cancer medicines between 2005 and 2021, calculating age-standardised annual prevalence rates of people alive with exposure to a potentially cardiotoxic medicine during or prior to each year of the study period. Findings: We identified 108,175 people dispensed at least one potentially cardiotoxic cancer medicine; median age, 64 (IQR: 52-74); 57% female. Overall prevalence increased from 49 (95%CI: 48.7-49.3)/10,000 to 232 (95%CI: 231.4-232.6)/10,000 over the study period; 61 (95%CI: 60.5-61.5)/10,000 to 293 (95%CI: 292.1-293.9)/10,000 for females; and 39 (95%CI: 38.6-39.4)/10,000 to 169 (95%CI: 168.3-169.7)/10,000 for males. People alive five years following first exposure increased from 29 (95%CI: 28.8-29.2)/10,000 to 134 (95%CI: 133.6-134.4)/10,000; and from 22 (95%CI: 21.8-22.2)/10,000 to 76 (95%CI: 75.7-76.3)/10,000 for those alive at least 10 years following first exposure. Most people were exposed to only one potentially cardiotoxic medicine, rates of which increased from 39 (95%CI: 38.7-39.3)/10,000 in 2005 to 131 (95%CI: 130.6-131.4)/10,000 in 2021. Interpretation: The number of people exposed to efficacious yet potentially cardiotoxic cancer medicines in Australia is growing. Our findings can support the development of service planning and create awareness about the magnitude of cancer treatment-related cardiotoxicities. Funding: NHMRC Centre for Research Excellence in Medicines Intelligence, Cancer Institute NSW Early Career Fellowship.
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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Inter-hospital inequalities in head and neck cancer (HNC) survival may exist due to variation in radiotherapy treatment-related factors. This study investigated inter-hospital variation in data collection, primary radiotherapy treatment, and survival in HNC patients from an Australian setting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data collected in oncology information systems (OIS) from seven Australian hospitals was extracted for 3,182 adults treated with curative radiotherapy, with or without surgery or chemotherapy, for primary, non-metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (2000-2017). Death data was sourced from the National Death Index using record linkage. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the association between survival and hospital. RESULTS: Inter-hospital variation in data collection, primary radiotherapy dose, and five-year HNC-related death was detected. Completion of eleven fields ranged from 66%-98%. Primary radiotherapy treated Tis-T1N0 glottic and any stage oral cavity and oropharynx cancers received significantly different time-corrected biologically equivalent dose in two gray fractions (EQD2T) by hospital, with observed deviation from Australian radiotherapy guidelines. Increased EQD2T dose was associated with a reduced risk of five-year HNC-related death in all patients and those treated with primary radiotherapy. Hospital, tumour site, and T and N classification were also identified as independent prognostic factors for five-year HNC-related death in all patients treated with radiotherapy. CONCLUSION: Unexplained variation exists in HNC-related death in patients treated at Australian hospitals. Available routinely collected data in OIS are insufficient to explain variation in survival. Innovative data collection, extraction, and classification practices are needed to inform clinical practice.
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BACKGROUND: Evidence regarding the characteristics of second primary cancer (SPC) in people living with HIV (PLWHIV) is limited. SETTING: We performed a national population-based data linkage study to determine the incidence and risk factors of SPC in PLWHIV in Australia between 1982 and 2012. METHODS: We conducted a probabilistic data linkage study to compare the incidence of SPC over time, defined using HIV treatment eras, for SPCs related to oncogenic viral infection in comparison with non-infection-related SPCs. Risk factors considered included age at diagnosis of cancer, sex, HIV exposure modality, and CD4 + count. RESULTS: Of 29,383 individuals diagnosed with HIV, 3123 individuals who developed a first primary cancer were included in the analysis. Among them, 229 cases of SPC were identified across 27,398 person-years of follow-up. The most common SPCs were non-Hodgkin lymphomas (n = 71, 31%). The incidence of SPC overall did not change over time; however, there was an increase in individuals diagnosed with HIV in later eras ( P trend =0.001). The incidence of non-infection-related SPC increased over time and was associated with older age ( P trend = 0.005) and the acquisition of HIV in later eras ( P trend <0.001). Conversely, the incidence of infection-related SPC decreased ( P trend <0.001), but this was no longer significant after adjustment for age ( P trend = 0.14). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of SPC in PLWHIV in Australia remains high, with a temporal increase observed in non-infection-related cancer, likely due to aging of the population. Optimal screening and prevention strategies for SPC in PLWHIV are increasingly important.
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Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida , Infecções por HIV , Segunda Neoplasia Primária , Neoplasias , Humanos , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/complicações , Segunda Neoplasia Primária/epidemiologia , Síndrome da Imunodeficiência Adquirida/complicações , Incidência , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Neoplasias/complicaçõesRESUMO
PURPOSE: There is limited knowledge of the prediction of 2-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) in the head and neck cancer (HNC) population. The aim of this study is to develop and validate machine learning models and a nomogram for the prediction of 2-year CSS in patients with HNC using real-world data collected by major teaching and tertiary referral hospitals in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data collected in oncology information systems at multiple NSW Cancer Centres were extracted for 2,953 eligible adults diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Death data were sourced from the National Death Index using record linkage. Machine learning and Cox regression/nomogram models were developed and internally validated in Python and R, respectively. RESULTS: Machine learning models demonstrated highest performance (C-index) in the larynx and nasopharynx cohorts (0.82), followed by the oropharynx (0.79) and the hypopharynx and oral cavity cohorts (0.73). In the whole HNC population, C-indexes of 0.79 and 0.70 and Brier scores of 0.10 and 0.27 were reported for the machine learning and nomogram model, respectively. Cox regression analysis identified age, T and N classification, and time-corrected biologic equivalent dose in two gray fractions as independent prognostic factors for 2-year CSS. N classification was the most important feature used for prediction in the machine learning model followed by age. CONCLUSION: Machine learning and nomogram analysis predicted 2-year CSS with high performance using routinely collected and complete clinical information extracted from oncology information systems. These models function as visual decision-making tools to guide radiotherapy treatment decisions and provide insight into the prediction of survival outcomes in patients with HNC.
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Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Nomogramas , Adulto , Humanos , Prognóstico , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/diagnóstico , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/epidemiologia , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/terapia , Aprendizado de MáquinaRESUMO
Cancer centres rely on electronic information in oncology information systems (OIS) to guide patient care. We investigated the completeness and accuracy of routinely collected head and neck cancer (HNC) data sourced from an OIS for suitability in prognostic modelling and other research. Three hundred and fifty-three adults diagnosed from 2000 to 2017 with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, treated with radiotherapy, were eligible. Thirteen clinically relevant variables in HNC prognosis were extracted from a single-centre OIS and compared to that compiled separately in a research dataset. These two datasets were compared for agreement using Cohen's kappa coefficient for categorical variables, and intraclass correlation coefficients for continuous variables. Research data was 96% complete compared to 84% for OIS data. Agreement was perfect for gender (κ = 1.000), high for age (κ = 0.993), site (κ = 0.992), T (κ = 0.851) and N (κ = 0.812) stage, radiotherapy dose (κ = 0.889), fractions (κ = 0.856), and duration (κ = 0.818), and chemotherapy treatment (κ = 0.871), substantial for overall stage (κ = 0.791) and vital status (κ = 0.689), moderate for grade (κ = 0.547), and poor for performance status (κ = 0.110). Thirty-one other variables were poorly captured and could not be statistically compared. Documentation of clinical information within the OIS for HNC patients is routine practice; however, OIS data was less correct and complete than data collected for research purposes. Substandard collection of routine data may hinder advancements in patient care. Improved data entry, integration with clinical activities and workflows, system usability, data dictionaries, and training are necessary for OIS data to generate robust research. Data mining from clinical documents may supplement structured data collection.
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Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Radioterapia (Especialidade) , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas de Cabeça e Pescoço , Adulto , Humanos , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/terapia , Sistemas de Informação , Prognóstico , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas de Cabeça e Pescoço/terapia , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Confiabilidade dos DadosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Medicare-subsidised Team Care Arrangements (TCAs) support Australian general practitioners to implement shared care between collaborating health professionals for patients with chronic medical conditions and complex needs. We assessed the prevalence of TCAs, factors associated with TCA uptake and visits to TCA-subsidised allied health practitioners, for adults newly diagnosed with cancer in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective individual patient data linkage study with 13 951 45 and Up Study participants diagnosed with incident cancer during 2006-16. We used a proportional hazards model to estimate the factors associated with receipt of a TCA after cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: In total, 6630 patients had a TCA plan initiated (47.5%). A TCA was more likely for patients aged ≥65years, those with higher service utilisation 4-15months prior to cancer diagnosis, a higher number of comorbidities, lower self-rated overall health status, living in areas of greater socio-economic disadvantage, lower educational attainment and those with no private health insurance. A total of 4084 (61.6%) patients with a TCA had at least one TCA-subsidised allied health visit within 24months of the TCA. CONCLUSIONS: TCAs appear to be well targeted at cancer patients with chronic health conditions and lower socioeconomic status. Nevertheless, not all patients with a TCA subsequently attended a TCA-subsidised allied healthcare professional. This suggests either a misunderstanding of the plan, the receipt of allied health via other public schemes, a low prioritisation of the plan compared to other health care, or suboptimal availability of these services.
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Programas Nacionais de Saúde , Neoplasias , Humanos , Adulto , Idoso , Austrália , Estudos Retrospectivos , New South Wales/epidemiologia , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Neoplasias/terapiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the prognostic factors and performance of machine learning predictive models for 2-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) is limited in the head and neck cancer (HNC) population. METHODS: Data from our facilities' oncology information system (OIS) collected for routine practice (OIS dataset, n = 430 patients) and research purposes (research dataset, n = 529 patients) were extracted on adults diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. RESULTS: Machine learning demonstrated excellent performance (area under the curve, AUC) in the whole cohort (AUC = 0.97, research dataset), larynx cohort (AUC = 0.98, both datasets), and oropharynx cohort (AUC = 0.99, both datasets). Tumor site and T classification were identified as predictors of 2-year CSS in both datasets. Hypothyroidism and fitness for operation were further identified in the research dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Datasets extracted from an OIS for routine clinical practice and research purposes demonstrated high utility for informing 2-year head and neck CSS.
Assuntos
Carcinoma de Células Escamosas , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço , Adulto , Humanos , Prognóstico , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Neoplasias de Cabeça e Pescoço/terapia , Carcinoma de Células Escamosas/terapiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Glioma accounts for approximately 80% of malignant adult brain cancer and its most common subtype, glioblastoma, has one of the lowest 5-year cancer survivals. Fifty risk-associated variants within 34 glioma genetic risk regions have been found by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) with a sex difference reported for 8q24.21 region. We conducted an Australian GWAS by glioma subtype and sex. METHODS: We analyzed genome-wide data from the Australian Genomics and Clinical Outcomes of Glioma (AGOG) consortium for 7 573 692 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for 560 glioma cases and 2237 controls of European ancestry. Cases were classified as glioblastoma, non-glioblastoma, astrocytoma or oligodendroglioma. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the associations of SNPs with glioma risk by subtype and by sex. RESULTS: We replicated the previously reported glioma risk associations in the regions of 2q33.3 C2orf80, 2q37.3 D2HGDH, 5p15.33 TERT, 7p11.2 EGFR, 8q24.21 CCDC26, 9p21.3 CDKN2BAS, 11q21 MAML2, 11q23.3 PHLDB1, 15q24.2 ETFA, 16p13.3 RHBDF1, 16p13.3 LMF1, 17p13.1 TP53, 20q13.33 RTEL, and 20q13.33 GMEB2 (P < .05). We also replicated the previously reported sex difference at 8q24.21 CCDC26 (P = .0024) with the association being nominally significant for both sexes (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Our study supports a stronger female risk association for the region 8q24.21 CCDC26 and highlights the importance of analyzing glioma GWAS by sex. A better understanding of sex differences could provide biological insight into the cause of glioma with implications for prevention, risk prediction and treatment.