Family Size and Parental Wealth: The Role of Family Transfers in Europe.

As baby boomers enter retirement, an increasing portion of the population in Europe will rely on wealth as a source of financial security. We address two research questions: what is the association between family size, i.e. the number of children, and wealth for adults who are preparing for or have entered retirement and does the generosity of family transfers moderate that association? Data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) are used to estimate the relationship between family size and the total household net worth of men and women between ages 50-65, born 1939-1967 from 14 European countries. We use logistic and linear regression modelling to investigate the probability of zero or negative wealth and net worth percentile rank. We find that adults with four or more children are more likely to be in debt and have less wealth than childless adults. In contrast, adults with two and three children have more wealth. We provide evidence that the generosity of family transfers ameliorates the negative association between larger family sizes and wealth, but may exacerbate wealth inequality by benefiting two and three child families most.

Family demographic processes and in-work poverty: A systematic review.

This article reviews ever published quantitative evidence on in-work poverty and family demographic processes in OECD and EU-28 countries. Despite the increasing attention to in-work poverty in Europe and beyond, a comprehensive and critical review on how family demographic processes shape in-work poverty risks is still missing. In this systematic review, we first provide a quantitative review of results from analyses that estimated the association between in-work poverty and parental home leaving, union formation, marriage, parenthood, and dissolution of non-marital and marital unions. This allows us to formulate tentative conclusions about whether and in which direction family demographic processes are associated with in-work poverty. Second, we discuss in detail conceptual and methodological advances in in-work poverty research, such as longitudinal analytical designs or attempts to make in-work poverty research more sensitive to policy context, gender, and the life course. Our review highlights theoretical and methodological challenges for future studies linking in-work poverty and family demography.

Gender and race differences in pathways out of in-work poverty in the US.

Research on in-work poverty has focused on the probability of being employed while living in an impoverished household, but no studies have investigated pathways of labor market attachment and economic vulnerability following in-work poverty. We use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to establish a typology of employment pathways out of in-work poverty and to estimate differences by gender and race. By using the Sequence Analysis Multistate Model procedure, we identify five distinct pathways characterized by varying degrees of labor market attachment, economic vulnerability, and volatility. White men are most likely exit in-work poverty into stable employment outside of poverty, while Black men and women often experience recurrent spells of in-work poverty. Gender and race differences persist even after controlling for labor market and family demographic characteristics. Our results indicate that work-related anti-poverty strategies must be coupled with adequately high wages and employment protection legislation to effectively raise working households out of poverty.

Genome-Wide Heritability Estimates for Family Life Course Complexity.

Sequence analysis is an established method used to study the complexity of family life courses. Although individual and societal characteristics have been linked with the complexity of family trajectories, social scientists have neglected the potential role of genetic factors in explaining variation in family transitions and events across the life course. We estimate the genetic contribution to sequence complexity and a wide range of family demographic behaviors using genomic relatedness-based, restricted maximum likelihood models with data from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study. This innovative methodological approach allows us to provide the first estimates of the heritability of composite life course outcomes-that is, sequence complexity. We demonstrate that a number of family demographic indicators (e.g., the age at first birth and first marriage) are heritable and provide evidence that composite metrics can be influenced by genetic factors. For example, our results show that 11% of the total variation in the complexity of differentiated family sequences is attributable to genetic influences. Moreover, we test whether this genetic contribution varies by social environment as indexed by birth cohort over a period of rapid changes in family norms during the twentieth century. Interestingly, we find evidence that the complexity of fertility and differentiated family trajectories decreased across cohorts, but we find no evidence that the heritability of the complexity of partnership trajectories changed across cohorts. Therefore, our results do not substantiate claims that lower normative constraints on family demographic behavior increase the role of genes.

Family size and economic wellbeing following divorce: The United States in comparative perspective.

Studies have documented the negative association between divorce and women's economic wellbeing in several countries. Less is known about whether the effects of divorce on women's economic wellbeing, and their persistency, vary by family size. We present the first comprehensive assessment of how the short-term and medium-term economic consequences of divorce vary by family size. Using data from the US (PSID) and between-within random-effects models, we estimate changes in women's gross household income up to six years following divorce, stratified by the number of children in the household in the year of divorce. We add a comparative perspective using a harmonized set of socio-economic panel surveys from Australia (HILDA), Germany (GSOEP), and the UK (BHPS). Our findings demonstrate that the household incomes of women with three or more children decrease most drastically in the US, Germany, and the UK. In these countries, divorce widens the economic gap between child-rich households and those with no or few children. While childless women's incomes do not recover in the medium-term, incomes of mothers in Germany, the UK, and to a lesser extent the US partially recuperate. We demonstrate that differences in labor market attachment, and not remarriage, partially account for the family size differences we observe.

Early Family Life Course Standardization in Sweden: The Role of Compositional Change.

The diversity of early family life courses is thought to have increased, although empirical evidence is mixed. Less standardized family formation is attributed to compositional changes in educational attainment, labour market participation, and childhood living conditions. I investigate whether and why family trajectories have become more or less standardized across birth cohorts in Sweden. I combine sequence metrics with Oaxaca-Blinder decompositions to assess the compositional shifts that drive changes in family formation standardization. Family trajectories of individuals born in 1952, 1962, and 1972 from age 18 to 35 are reconstructed using Swedish register data. My results demonstrate that early family formation has become more standardized across birth cohorts. Further, compositional differences between birth cohorts partially account for this standardization, especially for women. For example, higher levels of educational attainment are associated with family formation standardization. This substantiates arguments that family formation may re-standardize following the second demographic transition.

Using sequence analysis to test if human life histories are coherent strategies.

Life history theory, a prominent ecological model in biology, is widely used in the human sciences to make predictions about human behaviour. However, its principal assumptions have not been empirically tested. We address this gap with three research questions: (1) do humans exhibit coherent life history strategies; (2) do individuals adopt strategies along a slow-fast continuum; and (3) are socioeconomic circumstances during childhood associated with the pace of the life history strategy that an individual adopts? Data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study is used to reconstruct the life histories of US women including information on puberty, fertility, menopause and death. We introduce a novel methodological approach to evolutionary anthropology, sequence analysis, to assess if human life histories are coherent strategies and how these strategies are patterned. In subsequent analyses we used multinomial logistic regressions to test whether childhood socioeconomic status predicts the life history patterns women follow. Results provide little evidence that humans follow coherent life-history strategies; Wisconsin women are clustered by the number of children they have but not by ages at life events. Socioeconomic status does not predict which cluster women fall into, suggesting that less well-off women do not have higher fertility, as predicted.

Family Trajectories Across Time and Space: Increasing Complexity in Family Life Courses in Europe?

Family life courses are thought to have become more complex in Europe. This study uses SHARELIFE data from 14 European countries to analyze the family life courses of individuals born in 1924-1956 from ages 15 to 50. A new methodological approach, combining complexity metrics developed in sequence analysis with cross-classified multilevel modeling, is used to simultaneously quantify the proportions of variance attributable to birth cohort and country differences. This approach allows the direct comparison of changing levels of family trajectory differentiation across birth cohorts with cross-national variation, which provides a benchmark against which temporal change may be evaluated. The results demonstrate that family trajectories have indeed become more differentiated but that change over time is minor compared with substantial cross-national variation. Further, cross-national differences in family trajectory differentiation correspond with differences in dominant family life course patterns. With regard to debates surrounding the second demographic transition thesis and the comparative life course literature, the results indicate that the degree of change over time tends to be overstated relative to large cross-national differences.