Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features.

In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial (NCT04505722), estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were determined from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19. In this set of prespecified analyses, we show that in Latin America, VE was significantly lower against Lambda vs. Reference and against Lambda vs. non-Lambda [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-insert at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20); significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 antibody-epitope escape scores and 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccinee sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against the most distant viruses.

Quantifying how single dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy depends on Spike sequence features.

It is of interest to pinpoint SARS-CoV-2 sequence features defining vaccine resistance. In the ENSEMBLE randomized, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial, estimated single-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine efficacy (VE) was 56% against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. SARS-CoV-2 Spike sequences were measured from 484 vaccine and 1,067 placebo recipients who acquired COVID-19 during the trial. In Latin America, where Spike diversity was greatest, VE was significantly lower against Lambda than against Reference and against all non-Lambda variants [family-wise error rate (FWER) p < 0.05]. VE also differed by residue match vs. mismatch to the vaccine-strain residue at 16 amino acid positions (4 FWER p < 0.05; 12 q-value ≤ 0.20). VE significantly decreased with physicochemical-weighted Hamming distance to the vaccine-strain sequence for Spike, receptor-binding domain, N-terminal domain, and S1 (FWER p < 0.001); differed (FWER ≤ 0.05) by distance to the vaccine strain measured by 9 different antibody-epitope escape scores and by 4 NTD neutralization-impacting features; and decreased (p = 0.011) with neutralization resistance level to vaccine recipient sera. VE against severe-critical COVID-19 was stable across most sequence features but lower against viruses with greatest distances. These results help map antigenic specificity of in vivo vaccine protection.

Modifiers of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy: Results from four COVID-19 prevention network efficacy trials.

Questions remain regarding the effect of baseline host and exposure factors on vaccine efficacy (VE) across pathogens and vaccine platforms. We report placebo-controlled data from four Phase 3 COVID-19 trials during the early period of the pandemic. This was a cross-protocol analysis of four randomized, placebo-controlled efficacy trials (Moderna/mRNA1273, AstraZeneca/AZD1222, Janssen/Ad26.COV2.S, and Novavax/NVX-CoV2373) using a harmonized design. Trials were conducted in the United States and international sites in adults ≥ 18 years of age. VE was assessed for symptomatic and severe COVID-19. We analyzed 114,480 participants from both placebo and vaccine arms, enrolled July 2020 to February 2021, with follow up through July 2021. VE against symptomatic COVID-19 showed little heterogeneity across baseline socio-demographic, clinical or exposure characteristics, in either univariate or multivariate analysis, regardless of vaccine platform. Similarly, VE against severe COVID-19 in the single trial (Janssen) with sufficient endpoints for analysis showed little evidence of heterogeneity. COVID-19 VE is not influenced by baseline host or exposure characteristics across efficacy trials of different vaccine platforms and countries when well matched to circulating virus strains. This supports use of these vaccines, regardless of platform type, as effective tools in the near term for reducing symptomatic and severe COVID-19, particularly for older individuals and those with common co-morbidities during major variant shifts. Clinical trial registration numbers: NCT04470427, NCT04516746, NCT04505722, and NCT04611802.

Immune correlates analysis of the ENSEMBLE single Ad26.COV2.S dose vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (<2.7 IU50 ml-1) and increased to 89% (78%, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50 ml-1. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titre curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported the ID50 titre as a correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of a booster regimen of Ad26.COV2.S vaccine against COVID-19 (ENSEMBLE2): results of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of effective vaccines against COVID-19, booster vaccinations are needed to maintain vaccine-induced protection against variant strains and breakthrough infections. This study aimed to investigate the efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine (Janssen) as primary vaccination plus a booster dose. METHODS: ENSEMBLE2 is a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial including crossover vaccination after emergency authorisation of COVID-19 vaccines. Adults aged at least 18 years without previous COVID-19 vaccination at public and private medical practices and hospitals in Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, France, Germany, the Philippines, South Africa, Spain, the UK, and the USA were randomly assigned 1:1 via a computer algorithm to receive intramuscularly administered Ad26.COV2.S as a primary dose plus a booster dose at 2 months or two placebo injections 2 months apart. The primary endpoint was vaccine efficacy against the first occurrence of molecularly confirmed moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 with onset at least 14 days after booster vaccination, which was assessed in participants who received two doses of vaccine or placebo, were negative for SARS-CoV-2 by PCR at baseline and on serology at baseline and day 71, had no major protocol deviations, and were at risk of COVID-19 (ie, had no PCR-positive result or discontinued the study before day 71). Safety was assessed in all participants; reactogenicity, in terms of solicited local and systemic adverse events, was assessed as a secondary endpoint in a safety subset (approximately 6000 randomly selected participants). The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04614948, and is ongoing. FINDINGS: Enrolment began on Nov 16, 2020, and the primary analysis data cutoff was June 25, 2021. From 34 571 participants screened, the double-blind phase enrolled 31 300 participants, 14 492 of whom received two doses (7484 in the Ad26.COV2.S group and 7008 in the placebo group) and 11 639 of whom were eligible for inclusion in the assessment of the primary endpoint (6024 in the Ad26.COV2.S group and 5615 in the placebo group). The median (IQR) follow-up post-booster vaccination was 36·0 (15·0-62·0) days. Vaccine efficacy was 75·2% (adjusted 95% CI 54·6-87·3) against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 (14 cases in the Ad26.COV2.S group and 52 cases in the placebo group). Most cases were due to the variants alpha (B.1.1.7) and mu (B.1.621); endpoints for the primary analysis accrued from Nov 16, 2020, to June 25, 2021, before the global dominance of delta (B.1.617.2) or omicron (B.1.1.529). The booster vaccine exhibited an acceptable safety profile. The overall frequencies of solicited local and systemic adverse events (evaluated in the safety subset, n=6067) were higher among vaccine recipients than placebo recipients after the primary and booster doses. The frequency of solicited adverse events in the Ad26.COV2.S group were similar following the primary and booster vaccinations (local adverse events, 1676 [55·6%] of 3015 vs 896 [57·5%] of 1559, respectively; systemic adverse events, 1764 [58·5%] of 3015 vs 821 [52·7%] of 1559, respectively). Solicited adverse events were transient and mostly grade 1-2 in severity. INTERPRETATION: A homologous Ad26.COV2.S booster administered 2 months after primary single-dose vaccination in adults had an acceptable safety profile and was efficacious against moderate to severe-critical COVID-19. Studies assessing efficacy against newer variants and with longer follow-up are needed. FUNDING: Janssen Research & Development.

Immune Correlates Analysis of a Single Ad26.COV2.S Dose in the ENSEMBLE COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial.

Anti-spike IgG binding antibody, anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibody, and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements four weeks post-vaccination were assessed as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 outcomes through 83 days post-vaccination and as correlates of protection following a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine in the placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international, randomized efficacy trial. Each marker had evidence as a correlate of risk and of protection, with strongest evidence for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titer. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; p=0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43, 72%) at nonquantifiable ID50 (< 2.7 IU50/ml) and rose to 89% (78, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50/ml. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titer curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported consistency of the ID50 titer correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Final Analysis of Efficacy and Safety of Single-Dose Ad26.COV2.S.

BACKGROUND: The Ad26.COV2.S vaccine was highly effective against severe-critical coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), hospitalization, and death in the primary phase 3 efficacy analysis. METHODS: We conducted the final analysis in the double-blind phase of our multinational, randomized, placebo-controlled trial, in which adults were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive single-dose Ad26.COV2.S (5×1010 viral particles) or placebo. The primary end points were vaccine efficacy against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 with onset at least 14 days after administration and at least 28 days after administration in the per-protocol population. Safety and key secondary and exploratory end points were also assessed. RESULTS: Median follow-up in this analysis was 4 months; 8940 participants had at least 6 months of follow-up. In the per-protocol population (39,185 participants), vaccine efficacy against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 at least 14 days after administration was 56.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 51.3 to 60.8; 484 cases in the vaccine group vs. 1067 in the placebo group); at least 28 days after administration, vaccine efficacy was 52.9% (95% CI, 47.1 to 58.1; 433 cases in the vaccine group vs. 883 in the placebo group). Efficacy in the United States, primarily against the reference strain (B.1.D614G) and the B.1.1.7 (alpha) variant, was 69.7% (95% CI, 60.7 to 76.9); efficacy was reduced elsewhere against the P.1 (gamma), C.37 (lambda), and B.1.621 (mu) variants. Efficacy was 74.6% (95% CI, 64.7 to 82.1) against severe-critical Covid-19 (with only 4 severe-critical cases caused by the B.1.617.2 [delta] variant), 75.6% (95% CI, 54.3 to 88.0) against Covid-19 leading to medical intervention (including hospitalization), and 82.8% (95% CI, 40.5 to 96.8) against Covid-19-related death, with protection lasting 6 months or longer. Efficacy against any severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was 41.7% (95% CI, 36.3 to 46.7). Ad26.COV2.S was associated with mainly mild-to-moderate adverse events, and no new safety concerns were identified. CONCLUSIONS: A single dose of Ad26.COV2.S provided 52.9% protection against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19. Protection varied according to variant; higher protection was observed against severe Covid-19, medical intervention, and death than against other end points and lasted for 6 months or longer. (Funded by Janssen Research and Development and others; ENSEMBLE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04505722.).

Prevention of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in Healthy Adults by a Single Immunization of Ad26.RSV.preF in a Human Challenge Study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a significant cause of severe lower respiratory tract disease in children and older adults, but has no approved vaccine. This study assessed the potential of Ad26.RSV.preF to protect against RSV infection and disease in an RSV human challenge model. METHODS: In this double-blind, placebo-controlled study, healthy adults aged 18-50 years were randomized 1:1 to receive 1 × 1011 vp Ad26.RSV.preF or placebo intramuscularly. Twenty-eight days postimmunization, volunteers were challenged intranasally with RSV-A (Memphis 37b). Assessments included viral load (VL), RSV infections, clinical symptom score (CSS), safety, and immunogenicity. RESULTS: Postchallenge, VL, RSV infections, and disease severity were lower in Ad26.RSV.preF (n = 27) vs placebo (n = 26) recipients: median VL area under the curve (AUC) quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction: 0.0 vs 236.0 (P = .012; predefined primary endpoint); median VL-AUC quantitative culture: 0.0 vs 109; RSV infections 11 (40.7%) vs 17 (65.4%); median RSV AUC-CSS 35 vs 167, respectively. From baseline to 28 days postimmunization, geometric mean fold increases in RSV A2 neutralizing antibody titers of 5.8 and 0.9 were observed in Ad26.RSV.preF and placebo, respectively. Ad26.RSV.preF was well tolerated. CONCLUSIONS: Ad26.RSV.preF demonstrated protection from RSV infection through immunization in a human challenge model, and therefore could potentially protect against natural RSV infection and disease. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT03334695; CR108398, 2017-003194-33 (EudraCT); VAC18193RSV2002.

Efficient, doubly robust estimation of the effect of dose switching for switchers in a randomized clinical trial.

Motivated by a clinical trial conducted by Janssen Pharmaceutica in which a flexible dosing regimen is compared to placebo, we evaluate how switchers in the treatment arm (i.e., patients who were switched to the higher dose) would have fared had they been kept on the low dose. This is done in order to understand whether flexible dosing is potentially beneficial for them. Simply comparing these patients' responses with those of patients who stayed on the low dose does not likely entail a satisfactory evaluation because the latter patients are usually in a better health condition. Because the available information in the considered trial is too limited to enable a reliable adjustment, we will instead transport data from a fixed dosing trial that has been conducted concurrently on the same target, albeit not in an identical patient population. In particular, we propose an estimator that relies on an outcome model, a model for switching, and a propensity score model for the association between study and patient characteristics. The proposed estimator is asymptotically unbiased if either the outcome or the propensity score model is correctly specified, and efficient (under the semiparametric model where the randomization probabilities are known and independent of baseline covariates) when all models are correctly specified. The proposed method for transporting information from an external study is more broadly applicable in studies where a classical confounding adjustment is not possible due to near positivity violation (e.g., studies where switching takes place in a (near) deterministic manner). Monte Carlo simulations and application to the motivating study demonstrate adequate performance.

A Deferred-Vaccination Design to Assess Durability of COVID-19 Vaccine Effect After the Placebo Group Is Vaccinated.

Multiple candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials, and several have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. At some point after demonstration of substantial efficacy, placebo recipients should be offered the efficacious vaccine from their trial, which will occur before longer-term efficacy and safety are known. The absence of a placebo group could compromise assessment of longer-term vaccine effects. However, by continuing follow-up after vaccination of the placebo group, this study shows that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be mathematically derived by assuming that the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the original placebo recipients after their vaccination. Although this derivation provides less precise estimates than would be obtained by a standard trial where the placebo group remains unvaccinated, this proposed approach allows estimation of longer-term effect, including durability of vaccine efficacy and whether the vaccine eventually becomes harmful for some. Deferred vaccination, if done open-label, may lead to riskier behavior in the unblinded original vaccine group, confounding estimates of long-term vaccine efficacy. Hence, deferred vaccination via blinded crossover, where the vaccine group receives placebo and vice versa, would be the preferred way to assess vaccine durability and potential delayed harm. Deferred vaccination allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain them on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunologic and clinical effectiveness over time.

Safety and Efficacy of Single-Dose Ad26.COV2.S Vaccine against Covid-19.

BACKGROUND: The Ad26.COV2.S vaccine is a recombinant, replication-incompetent human adenovirus type 26 vector encoding full-length severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spike protein in a prefusion-stabilized conformation. METHODS: In an international, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned adult participants in a 1:1 ratio to receive a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S (5×1010 viral particles) or placebo. The primary end points were vaccine efficacy against moderate to severe-critical coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) with an onset at least 14 days and at least 28 days after administration among participants in the per-protocol population who had tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: The per-protocol population included 19,630 SARS-CoV-2-negative participants who received Ad26.COV2.S and 19,691 who received placebo. Ad26.COV2.S protected against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 with onset at least 14 days after administration (116 cases in the vaccine group vs. 348 in the placebo group; efficacy, 66.9%; adjusted 95% confidence interval [CI], 59.0 to 73.4) and at least 28 days after administration (66 vs. 193 cases; efficacy, 66.1%; adjusted 95% CI, 55.0 to 74.8). Vaccine efficacy was higher against severe-critical Covid-19 (76.7% [adjusted 95% CI, 54.6 to 89.1] for onset at ≥14 days and 85.4% [adjusted 95% CI, 54.2 to 96.9] for onset at ≥28 days). Despite 86 of 91 cases (94.5%) in South Africa with sequenced virus having the 20H/501Y.V2 variant, vaccine efficacy was 52.0% and 64.0% against moderate to severe-critical Covid-19 with onset at least 14 days and at least 28 days after administration, respectively, and efficacy against severe-critical Covid-19 was 73.1% and 81.7%, respectively. Reactogenicity was higher with Ad26.COV2.S than with placebo but was generally mild to moderate and transient. The incidence of serious adverse events was balanced between the two groups. Three deaths occurred in the vaccine group (none were Covid-19-related), and 16 in the placebo group (5 were Covid-19-related). CONCLUSIONS: A single dose of Ad26.COV2.S protected against symptomatic Covid-19 and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection and was effective against severe-critical disease, including hospitalization and death. Safety appeared to be similar to that in other phase 3 trials of Covid-19 vaccines. (Funded by Janssen Research and Development and others; ENSEMBLE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04505722.).

A novel estimand to adjust for rescue treatment in randomized clinical trials.

The interpretation of randomized clinical trial results is often complicated by intercurrent events. For instance, rescue medication is sometimes given to patients in response to worsening of their disease, either in addition to the randomized treatment or in its place. The use of such medication complicates the interpretation of the intention-to-treat analysis. In view of this, we propose a novel estimand defined as the intention-to-treat effect that would have been observed, had patients on the active arm been switched to rescue medication if and only if they would have been switched when randomized to control. This enables us to disentangle the treatment effect from the effect of rescue medication on a patient's outcome, while tempering the strong extrapolations that are typically needed when inferring what the intention-to-treat effect would have been in the absence of rescue medication. We propose a novel inverse probability weighting method for estimating this effect in settings where the decision to initiate rescue medication is made at one prespecified time point. This estimator relies on specific untestable assumptions, in view of which we propose a sensitivity analysis. We use the method for the analysis of a clinical trial conducted by Janssen Pharmaceuticals, in which patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus can switch to rescue medication for ethical reasons. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that the proposed estimator is unbiased in moderate sample sizes.

Clinical Endpoints for Evaluating Efficacy in COVID-19 Vaccine Trials.

Several vaccine candidates to protect against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection or coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have entered or will soon enter large-scale, phase 3, placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials. To facilitate harmonized evaluation and comparison of the efficacy of these vaccines, a general set of clinical endpoints is proposed, along with considerations to guide the selection of the primary endpoints on the basis of clinical and statistical reasoning. The plausibility that vaccine protection against symptomatic COVID-19 could be accompanied by a shift toward more SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic is highlighted, as well as the potential implications of such a shift.

Nonhuman primate to human immunobridging to infer the protective effect of an Ebola virus vaccine candidate.

It has been proven challenging to conduct traditional efficacy trials for Ebola virus (EBOV) vaccines. In the absence of efficacy data, immunobridging is an approach to infer the likelihood of a vaccine protective effect, by translating vaccine immunogenicity in humans to a protective effect, using the relationship between vaccine immunogenicity and the desired outcome in a suitable animal model. We here propose to infer the protective effect of the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen with an 8-week interval in humans by immunobridging. Immunogenicity and protective efficacy data were obtained for Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimens using a fully lethal EBOV Kikwit challenge model in cynomolgus monkeys (nonhuman primates [NHP]). The association between EBOV neutralizing antibodies, glycoprotein (GP)-binding antibodies, and GP-reactive T cells and survival in NHP was assessed by logistic regression analysis. Binding antibodies against the EBOV surface GP were identified as the immune parameter with the strongest correlation to survival post EBOV challenge, and used to infer the predicted protective effect of the vaccine in humans using published data from phase I studies. The human vaccine-elicited EBOV GP-binding antibody levels are in a range associated with significant protection against mortality in NHP. Based on this immunobridging analysis, the EBOV GP-specific-binding antibody levels elicited by the Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo vaccine regimen in humans will likely provide protection against EBOV disease.

Assessing Durability of Vaccine Effect Following Blinded Crossover in COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Trials.

BACKGROUND: Several candidate vaccines to prevent COVID-19 disease have entered large-scale phase 3 placebo-controlled randomized clinical trials and some have demonstrated substantial short-term efficacy. Efficacious vaccines should, at some point, be offered to placebo participants, which will occur before long-term efficacy and safety are known. METHODS: Following vaccination of the placebo group, we show that placebo-controlled vaccine efficacy can be derived by assuming the benefit of vaccination over time has the same profile for the original vaccine recipients and the placebo crossovers. This reconstruction allows estimation of both vaccine durability and potential vaccine-associated enhanced disease. RESULTS: Post-crossover estimates of vaccine efficacy can provide insights about durability, identify waning efficacy, and identify late enhancement of disease, but are less reliable estimates than those obtained by a standard trial where the placebo cohort is maintained. As vaccine efficacy estimates for post-crossover periods depend on prior vaccine efficacy estimates, longer pre-crossover periods with higher case counts provide better estimates of late vaccine efficacy. Further, open-label crossover may lead to riskier behavior in the immediate crossover period for the unblinded vaccine arm, confounding vaccine efficacy estimates for all post-crossover periods. CONCLUSIONS: We advocate blinded crossover and continued follow-up of trial participants to best assess vaccine durability and potential delayed enhancement of disease. This approach allows placebo recipients timely access to the vaccine when it would no longer be proper to maintain participants on placebo, yet still allows important insights about immunological and clinical effectiveness over time.

Improving interim decisions in randomized trials by exploiting information on short-term endpoints and prognostic baseline covariates.

Conditional power calculations are frequently used to guide the decision whether or not to stop a trial for futility or to modify planned sample size. These ignore the information in short-term endpoints and baseline covariates, and thereby do not make fully efficient use of the information in the data. We therefore propose an interim decision procedure based on the conditional power approach which exploits the information contained in baseline covariates and short-term endpoints. We will realize this by considering the estimation of the treatment effect at the interim analysis as a missing data problem. This problem is addressed by employing specific prediction models for the long-term endpoint which enable the incorporation of baseline covariates and multiple short-term endpoints. We show that the proposed procedure leads to an efficiency gain and a reduced sample size, without compromising the Type I error rate of the procedure, even when the adopted prediction models are misspecified. In particular, implementing our proposal in the conditional power approach enables earlier decisions relative to standard approaches, whilst controlling the probability of an incorrect decision. This time gain results in a lower expected number of recruited patients in case of stopping for futility, such that fewer patients receive the futile regimen. We explain how these methods can be used in adaptive designs with unblinded sample size re-assessment based on the inverse normal P-value combination method to control Type I error. We support the proposal by Monte Carlo simulations based on data from a real clinical trial.

Evaluating futility of a binary clinical endpoint using early read-outs.

Interim analyses are routinely used to monitor accumulating data in clinical trials. When the objective of the interim analysis is to stop the trial if the trial is deemed futile, it must ideally be conducted as early as possible. In trials where the clinical endpoint of interest is only observed after a long follow-up, many enrolled patients may therefore have no information on the primary endpoint available at the time of the interim analysis. To facilitate earlier decision-making, one may incorporate early response data that are predictive for the primary endpoint (eg, an assessment of the primary endpoint at an earlier time) in the interim analysis. Most attention so far has been given to the development of interim test statistics that include such short-term endpoints, but not to decision procedures. Existing tests moreover perform poorly when the information is scarce, eg, due to rare events, when the cohort of patients with observed primary endpoint data is small, or when the short-term endpoint is a strong but imperfect predictor. In view of this, we develop an interim decision procedure based on the conditional power approach that utilizes the short-term and long-term binary endpoints in a framework that is expected to provide reliable inferences, even when the primary endpoint is only available for a few patients, and has the added advantage that it allows the use of historical information. The operational characteristics of the proposed procedure are evaluated for the phase III clinical trial that motivated this approach, using simulation studies.

Evaluation of six months sputum culture conversion as a surrogate endpoint in a multidrug resistant-tuberculosis trial.

The emergence of multidrug resistant-tuberculosis (MDR-TB), defined as Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains with in vitro resistance to at least isoniazid and rifampicin, has necessitated evaluation and validation of appropriate surrogate endpoints for treatment response in drug trials for MDR-TB. The trial that has demonstrated efficacy of bedaquiline, a diarylquinoline that inhibits mycobacterial ATP synthase, possesses the requisite features to conduct this evaluation. Approval of bedaquiline for use in MDR-TB was based primarily on the results of the controlled C208 Stage II study (ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00449644) including 160 patients randomized 1:1 to receive bedaquiline or placebo for 24 weeks when added to an 18-24-month preferred five-drug background regimen. Since randomization in C208 Stage II was preserved until study end, the trial results allow for the investigation of the complex relationship between sustained durable outcome with either Week 8 or Week 24 culture conversion as putative surrogate endpoints. The relationship between Week 120 outcome with Week 8 or Week 24 culture conversion was investigated using a descriptive analysis and with a recently developed statistical methodology for surrogate endpoint evaluation using methods of causal inference. The results demonstrate that sputum culture conversion at 24 weeks is more reliable than sputum culture conversion at 8 weeks when assessing the outcome of adding one new drug to a MDR-TB regimen.

Virology analysis in HCV genotype 1-infected patients treated with the combination of simeprevir and TMC647055/ritonavir, with and without ribavirin, and JNJ-56914845.

BACKGROUND: In study TMC647055HPC2001, a 3-direct-acting-antiviral (DAA) regimen combining NS3/4A protease inhibitor simeprevir (SMV), non-nucleoside NS5B inhibitor TMC647055/ritonavir (RTV) and NS5A inhibitor JNJ-56914845 resulted in high sustained virologic response 12 weeks after actual end of treatment (SVR12) in chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 1-infected patients. SVR12 rates were generally lower in the 2-DAA regimen SMV + TMC647055/RTV with or without ribavirin. The objective of this study was to identify and characterise pre-existing and emerging resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in patients enrolled in study TMC647055HPC2001. METHODS: HCV population sequencing analyses were performed on baseline isolates from all patients (n = 90) and post-baseline isolates from patients with virologic failure (n = 22). In addition, deep sequencing and phenotypic analyses were performed on selected baseline and post-baseline isolates. RESULTS: The majority of patients with virologic failure had emerging RAVs to all study drugs at the time of failure: in all 22 patients SMV RAVs emerged at NS3 positions 80, 155, 156 and/or 168, consistent with the known SMV resistance profile. Emerging TMC647055 RAVs at NS5B position 495 were detected in the majority of patients (16/22), and all 5 patients who failed the 3-DAA regimen had emerging JNJ-56914845 RAVs at NS5A positions 30 and/or 31. While at the end of study emerging SMV and TMC647055 RAVs were no longer observed by population sequencing in 40% (8/20) and 62.5% (10/16) of patients with follow-up data available, respectively, emerging JNJ-56914845 RAVs were still detected in all (5/5) patients. CONCLUSIONS: Virologic failure in the 2- and 3-DAA combinations was, in the majority of patients, associated with the emergence of RAVs to all study drugs. While emerging SMV and TMC647055 RAVs became undetectable during follow-up, JNJ-56914845 RAVs in NS5A were still observed at end of study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT01724086 (date of registration: September 26, 2012).