Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines.

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

Bird populations most exposed to climate change are less sensitive to climatic variation.

The phenology of many species shows strong sensitivity to climate change; however, with few large scale intra-specific studies it is unclear how such sensitivity varies over a species' range. We document large intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity to temperature using laying date information from 67 populations of two co-familial European songbirds, the great tit (Parus major) and blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), covering a large part of their breeding range. Populations inhabiting deciduous habitats showed stronger phenological sensitivity than those in evergreen and mixed habitats. However, populations with higher sensitivity tended to have experienced less rapid change in climate over the past decades, such that populations with high phenological sensitivity will not necessarily exhibit the strongest phenological advancement. Our results show that to effectively assess the impact of climate change on phenology across a species' range it will be necessary to account for intra-specific variation in phenological sensitivity, climate change exposure, and the ecological characteristics of a population.

Effects of ambient temperatures on evolutionary potential of reproductive timing in boreal passerines.

Many populations need to adapt to changing environmental conditions, such as warming climate. Changing conditions generate directional selection for traits critical for fitness. For evolutionary responses to occur, these traits need to be heritable. However, changes in environmental conditions can alter the amount of heritable variation a population expresses, making predictions about expected responses difficult. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of ambient temperatures on evolutionary potential and strength of natural selection on the timing of reproduction in two passerine birds breeding in boreal forests. Long-term data on individually marked Willow Tits Poecile montanus (1975-2018) and Great Tits Parus major (1969-2018) were analysed with random regression animal models to assess if spring temperatures affect the expressed amount of additive genetic variation (VA ) and heritability (h2 ) in the timing of breeding. We assessed if ambient temperatures of different seasons influenced the direction and strength of selection on breeding time. We also evaluated if the strength of selection covaried with evolutionary potential. Levels of VA or h2 expressed in laying date were unaffected by spring temperatures in both study species. Selection for earlier breeding was found in the Willow Tit, but not in the Great Tit. In the Willow Tit, selection for earlier breeding was more intense when the temperatures of following autumns and winters were low. Different measures of evolutionary potential did not covary strongly with the strength of selection in either species. We conclude that there is no or little evidence that climate warming would either constrain or promote evolutionary potential in timing of breeding through changes in amount of genetic variance expressed in boreal Willow and Great Tits. However, selection on the timing of breeding, a life-history event taking place in springtime, is regulated by temperatures of autumns and winters. Rapid warming of these periods have thus potential to reduce the rate of expected evolutionary response in reproductive timing.

From feces to data: A metabarcoding method for analyzing consumed and available prey in a bird-insect food web.

Diets play a key role in understanding trophic interactions. Knowing the actual structure of food webs contributes greatly to our understanding of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The research of prey preferences of different predators requires knowledge not only of the prey consumed, but also of what is available. In this study, we applied DNA metabarcoding to analyze the diet of 4 bird species (willow tits Poecile montanus, Siberian tits Poecile cinctus, great tits Parus major and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus) by using the feces of nestlings. The availability of their assumed prey (Lepidoptera) was determined from feces of larvae (frass) collected from the main foraging habitat, birch (Betula spp.) canopy. We identified 53 prey species from the nestling feces, of which 11 (21%) were also detected from the frass samples (eight lepidopterans). Approximately 80% of identified prey species in the nestling feces represented lepidopterans, which is in line with the earlier studies on the parids' diet. A subsequent laboratory experiment showed a threshold for fecal sample size and the barcoding success, suggesting that the smallest frass samples do not contain enough larval DNA to be detected by high-throughput sequencing. To summarize, we apply metabarcoding for the first time in a combined approach to identify available prey (through frass) and consumed prey (via nestling feces), expanding the scope and precision for future dietary studies on insectivorous birds.

Different Ultimate Factors Define Timing of Breeding in Two Related Species.

Correct reproductive timing is crucial for fitness. Breeding phenology even in similar species can differ due to different selective pressures on the timing of reproduction. These selection pressures define species' responses to warming springs. The temporal match-mismatch hypothesis suggests that timing of breeding in animals is selected to match with food availability (synchrony). Alternatively, time-dependent breeding success (the date hypothesis) can result from other seasonally deteriorating ecological conditions such as intra- or interspecific competition or predation. We studied the effects of two ultimate factors on the timing of breeding, synchrony and other time-dependent factors (time-dependence), in sympatric populations of two related forest-dwelling passerine species, the great tit (Parus major) and the willow tit (Poecile montanus) by modelling recruitment with long-term capture-recapture data. We hypothesized that these two factors have different relevance for fitness in these species. We found that local recruitment in both species showed quadratic relationships with both time-dependence and synchrony. However, the importance of these factors was markedly different between the studied species. Caterpillar food played a predominant role in predicting the timing of breeding of the great tit. In contrast, for the willow tit time-dependence modelled as timing in relation to conspecifics was more important for local recruitment than synchrony. High caterpillar biomass experienced during the pre- and post-fledging periods increased local recruitment of both species. These contrasting results confirm that these species experience different selective pressures upon the timing of breeding, and hence responses to climate change may differ. Detailed information about life-history strategies is required to understand the effects of climate change, even in closely related taxa. The temporal match-mismatch hypothesis should be extended to consider subsequent critical periods when food needs to be abundantly available.

Different Seasonal Patterns in Song System Volume in Willow Tits and Great Tits.

In most species of seasonally breeding songbirds studied to date, the brain areas that control singing (i.e. the song control system, SCS) are larger during the breeding season than at other times of the year. In the family of titmice and chickadees (Paridae), one species, the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), shows the typical pattern of seasonal changes, while another species, the black-capped chickadee (Poecile atricapillus), shows, at best, very reduced seasonal changes in the SCS. To test whether this pattern holds up in the two Parid lineages to which these two species belong, and to rule out that the differences in seasonal patterns observed were due to differences in geography or laboratory, we compared the seasonal patterns in two song system nuclei volumes (HVC and Area X) in willow tits (Poecile montanus), closely related to black-capped chickadees, and in great tits (Parus major), more closely related to blue tits, from the same area around Oulu, Finland. Both species had larger gonads in spring than during the rest of the year. Great tit males had a larger HVC in spring than at other times of the year, but their Area X did not change in size. Willow tits showed no seasonal change in HVC or Area X size, despite having much larger gonads in spring than the great tits. Our findings suggest that the song system of willow tits and their relatives may be involved in learning and producing nonsong social vocalizations. Since these vocalizations are used year-round, there may be a year-round demand on the song system. The great tit and blue tit HVC may change seasonally because the demand is only placed on the song system during the breeding season, since they only produce learned vocalizations during this time. We suggest that changes were not observed in Area X because its main role is in song learning, and there is evidence that great tits do not learn new songs after their first year of life. Further study is required to determine whether our hypothesis about the role of the song system in the learned, nonsong vocalizations of the willow tit and chickadee is correct, and to test our hypothesis about the role of Area X in the great tit song system.

The relevance of food peak architecture in trophic interactions.

Phenological shifts and associated changes in the temporal match between trophic levels have been a major focus of the study of ecological consequences of climate change. Previously, the food peak has been thought to respond as an entity to warming temperatures. However, food peak architecture, that is, timings and abundances of prey species and the level of synchrony between them, determines the timing and shape of the food peak. We demonstrate this with a case example of three passerine prey species and their predator. We explored temporal trends in the timing, height, width, and peakedness of prey availabilities and explained their variation with food peak architecture and ambient temperatures of prebreeding and breeding seasons. We found a temporal match between the predator's breeding schedule and food availability. Temporal trends in the timing of the food peak or in the synchrony between the prey species were not found. However, the food peak has become wider and more peaked over time. With more peaked food availabilities, predator's breeding success will depend more on the temporal match between its breeding schedule and the food peak, ultimately affecting the timing of breeding in the predator population. The height and width of the food peak depended on the abundances and breeding season lengths of individual prey species and their reciprocal synchronies. Peakednesses of separate prey species' availability distributions alone explained the peakedness of the food peak. Timing and quantity of food production were associated with temperatures of various time periods with variable relevance in different prey species. Alternating abundances of early and late breeding prey species caused high annual fluctuation in the timing of the food peak. Interestingly, the food peak may become later even when prey species' schedules are advanced. Climate warming can thus produce unexpected changes in the food availabilities, intervening in trophic interactions.

Larval melanism in a geometrid moth: promoted neither by a thermal nor seasonal adaptation but desiccating environments.

Spatiotemporal variation in the degree of melanism is often considered in the context of thermal adaptation, melanism being advantageous under suboptimal thermal conditions. Yet, other mutually nonexclusive explanations exist. Analysis of geographical patterns combined with laboratory experiments on the mechanisms of morph induction helps to unveil the adaptive value of particular cases of polyphenism. In the context of the thermal melanism hypothesis and seasonal adaptations, we explored an array of environmental factors that may affect the expression and performance of nonmelanic vs. melanic larval morphs in different latitudinal populations of the facultatively bivoltine moth Chiasmia clathrata (Lepidoptera: Geometridae). Geographical variation in larval coloration was independent of average temperatures experienced by the populations in the wild. The melanic morph was, however, more abundant in dry than in mesic habitats. In the laboratory, the melanic morph was induced especially under a high level of incident radiation but also at relatively high temperatures, but independently of photoperiod. Melanic larvae had higher growth rates and shorter development times than the nonmelanic ones when both temperature and the level of incident radiation were high. Our results that melanism is induced and advantageous in warm desiccating conditions contradict the thermal melanism hypothesis for this species. Neither has melanism evolved to compensate time constraints due to forthcoming autumn. Instead, larvae solve seasonal variation in the time available for growth by an elevated growth rate and a shortened larval period in the face of autumnal photoperiods. The phenotypic response to the level of incident radiation and a lack of adaptive adjustment of larval growth trajectories in univoltine populations underpin the role of deterministic environmental variation in the evolution of irreversible adaptive plasticity and seasonal polyphenism.

Does the temporal mismatch hypothesis match in boreal populations?

The temporal mismatch hypothesis suggests that fitness is related to the degree of temporal synchrony between the energetic needs of the offspring and their food supply. The hypothesis has been a basis in studying the influence of climate warming on nature. This study enhances the knowledge on prevalence of temporal mismatches and their consequences in boreal populations, and questions the role of the temporal mismatch hypothesis as the principal explanation for the evolution of timing of breeding. To test this, we examined if synchrony with caterpillar prey or timing of breeding per se better explains reproductive output in North European parid populations. We compared responses of temperate-origin species, the great tit (Parus major) and the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), and a boreal species, the willow tit (Poecile montanus). We found that phenologies of caterpillars and great tits, but not of blue tits, have advanced during the past decades. Phenologies correlated with spring temperatures that may function as cues about the timing of the food peak for great and blue tits. The breeding of great and blue tits and their caterpillar food remained synchronous. Synchrony explained breeding success better than timing of breeding alone. However, the synchrony effect arose only in certain conditions, such as with high caterpillar abundances or high breeding densities. Breeding before good synchrony seems advantageous at high latitudes, especially in the willow tit. Thus, the temporal mismatch hypothesis appears insufficient in explaining the evolution of timing of breeding.