Preliminary analysis of the melanoma multimedia educational program for general practitioners on behalf of the Italian Melanoma Intergroup.

According to the National Oncological Plan 2023-2027 on the importance of multidisciplinary and interactive e-learning training, the Italian Melanoma Intergroup (IMI) has developed MelaMEd (Melanoma Multimedia Education), a national project for general practitioners (GPs) on the prevention and detection of cutaneous melanoma through an online platform and an online course. MelaMEd enables participants to i) recognize skin lesions that require specialist dermatological assessment, ii) select patients at high risk of melanoma and iii) be informed of the diagnosis and treatment pathway of patients with melanoma. A free online platform and online course were developed and launched in June 2022. Before starting the course, enrolled participants fill out a pre-training questionnaire concerning the basic knowledge of the disease and the recognition and management of suspicious lesions. After the course, participants will fill out the same questionnaire again. The online course will end in December 2023. Here we present a preliminary analysis of the pre-training results (January 2023-July 2023). The data have been analyzed descriptively. So far, five healthcare centers have participated in the project for a total of 1320 participants. Of these, 298 compiled the pre-training questionnaire. Forty-seven percent of them were aged <40 years. Respondents were almost divided between GPs (47%) and resident GPs (48%). Among the theoretical questions, the ABCDE rule and ugly duckling sign are well known (96% and 91% of correct answers, respectively), but a lower percentage (68%) of respondents knows the EFG rule for the recognition of nodular melanomas and the statement of Breslow thickness (29%). Regarding the series of clinical images of pigmented skin lesions and their management, the percentages rate of accuracy varied from 33% to 87%: melanoma (5 cases) ranges from 36% to 71%, melanocytic nevi (3 cases) from 33% to 84%, whereas the percentages rate of referral for dermatological evaluation varied from 44% to 99%. Melanoma cases referred to dermatologist ranges from 67% to 99%. This preliminary analysis on pre-train-ing questionnaire mainly showed a lack of knowledge of the two major points of melanoma diagnosis (EFG) and management (Breslow thickness), as well as a low rate of participants. We will compare the proportions of correct answers to the questionnaires before and after the course once available.

Factors affecting treatment decisions for endoscopically resected low- and high-risk malignant colorectal polyps in a screening setting.

INTRODUCTION: The European Guidelines for colorectal cancer screening of 2006 state that only high-risk endoscopically resected malignant colorectal polyps (MCPs), defined as poor/no differentiation or positive resection margins or lymphovascular invasion, require colonic resection. METHODS: A multicentre series of 954 patients with screen-detected MCP (northern Italy, 2005-2016, age 50-69) was studied to identify (1) the factors affecting the choice of colonic resection, and (2) the factors associated with deviation from the European Guidelines for low- and high-risk patients. Data analysis was based on multilevel logistic regression models. RESULTS: Five hundred sixty-four (59.1 %) patients underwent colonic resection. The factors significantly associated with surgical referral included: distal and rectal versus proximal tumour site (inverse association); sessile and flat versus pedunculated morphology (direct association); tumour size (direct); moderate/poor versus good differentiation (direct); adenocarcinoma of not otherwise specified type versus adenocarcinoma with a residual adenoma component (direct); positive versus negative resection margins (direct); lymphovascular invasion (direct); and high-grade versus low-grade/absent tumour budding (direct). In low-risk MCPs, tumour budding encouraged strongly the decision for surgery. In high-risk MCPs, a distal/rectal tumour site encouraged the follow-up option. CONCLUSION: The identification of factors associated with treatment choices other than those currently recommended may help prioritise the clinical questions in the development of future guidelines.

North-south differences in incidence and surveillance of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy.

BACKGROUND: In Italy, the incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma is two-fold higher in the north than in the south. This gradient might be associated with differences in incidence trends and disease surveillance. We compared the time trends in incidence rates, mortality rates, dermatologic office visit rates and skin biopsy rates between the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy) and the Sicily Region (southern Italy). METHODS: The cancer registries of Parma, Modena, Ferrara and Romagna (current population, 2,606,465) and Catania-Messina-Enna, Siracusa and Ragusa (2,775,019) provided incidence and mortality records for the years 2008-2017. The records of outpatient services delivered in public health facilities were obtained from the two Regional Administrations. Trends in rates were assessed with the estimated average annual percent change. North-south differences were expressed as age-standardised rate ratios. RESULTS: In the context of a generalised increasing incidence trend, which was more moderate in the female population of the Sicily Region, the standardised rate ratios were: 5.31 (males) and 5.20 (females) for in situ cutaneous malignant melanoma; 2.10 and 2.07 for invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma, with an excess incidence concentrated in lesions ⩽1.00 mm thick (3.58 and 3.05); 3.00 and 2.44 for dermatologic office visits; and 5.25 and 5.02 for skin biopsies. Mortality was stable in both Regions. CONCLUSIONS: In the Emilia-Romagna Region, as compared with the Sicily Region, a higher incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma -especially of in situ and early invasive cutaneous malignant melanoma- coexisted with a higher level of clinical surveillance. The question of the direction of the cause-effect relationship between increased incidence and increased diagnostic scrutiny remains open.

How many Italian cancer patients are eligible for, and may respond to, Italian Medicines Agency-approved immune checkpoint inhibitors?

INTRODUCTION: This cross-sectional study was aimed at estimating the number of Italian incident cancer patients in 2020 eligible for, and respondent to, immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). METHODS: The study is based on publicly available data: the ICI approved until August 2022 by the Italian Medicines Agency (AIFA) with their specific indications and overall observed responses, rther details can be found in the Online Supplementary Materi cancer incidence estimates at 2020 and observed cancer deaths, and published papers with estimates on the frequency of different cancer stage/histology/markers etc. corresponding to AIFA authorizations. RESULTS: In the analyzed period, a total of seven ICI were authorized in Italy for 20 cancer types. The estimated number of ICI-eligible patients in 2020 was 48,400, 14.3% of those tumors (including skin epitheliomas) that may fit AIFA-indications, and 10.5% of all the incident malignant tumors, including skin epitheliomas. The number of patients who may benefit from ICI therapy was 24,052, 49.7% of the ICI-eligible ones, or 5.2% of the overall estimated incident cancers in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, although the number of ICI-eligible patients is a relatively small proportion of the yearly burden of cancers, about half of them may respond to ICI-treatment.

The descriptive epidemiology of melanoma in Italy has changed - for the better.

A recent research project using data from a total of 40 cancer registries has provided new epidemiologic insights into the results of efforts for melanoma control in Italy between the 1990s and the last decade. In this article, the authors present a summary and a commentary of their findings. Incidence increased significantly throughout the study period in both sexes. However, the rates showed a stabilization or a decrease in men and women aged below 35 years. The risk of disease increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men) while subsequently tending to decline. The trend towards decreasing tumor thickness and increasing survival has continued, but a novel favorable prognostic factor has emerged since 2013 for patients - particularly for males - with thick melanoma, most likely represented by molecular targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Due to this, the survival gap between males and females has been filled out. In the meanwhile, and despite the incidence increase, dermatologists have not lowered their threshold to perform skin biopsy. Skin biopsy rate has increased because of the increasingly greater volume of dermatologic office visits, but the proportion of skin biopsies out of dermatologic office visits has remained constant. In summary, an important breakthrough in melanoma control in Italy has taken place. Effective interventions have been implemented across the full scope of care, which involve many large local populations - virtually the whole national population. The strategies adopted during the last three decades represent a valuable basis for further steps ahead in melanoma control in Italy.

Trends in Net Survival from Vulvar Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Italy (1990-2015).

(1) Objective: In many Western countries, survival from vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) has been stagnating for decades or has increased insufficiently from a clinical perspective. In Italy, previous studies on cancer survival have not taken vulvar cancer into consideration or have pooled patients with vulvar and vaginal cancer. To bridge this knowledge gap, we report the trend in survival from vulvar cancer between 1990 and 2015. (2) Methods: Thirty-eight local cancer registries covering 49% of the national female population contributed the records of 6274 patients. Study endpoints included 1- and 2-year net survival (NS) calculated using the Pohar-Perme estimator and 5-year NS conditional on having survived two years (5|2-year CNS). The significance of survival trends was assessed with the Wald test on the coefficient of the period of diagnosis, entered as a continuous regressor in a Poisson regression model. (3) Results: The median patient age was stable at 76 years. One-year NS decreased from 83.9% in 1990-2001 to 81.9% in 2009-2015 and 2-year NS from 72.2% to 70.5%. Five|2-year CNS increased from 85.7% to 86.7%. These trends were not significant. In the age stratum 70-79 years, a weakly significant decrease in 2-year NS from 71.4% to 65.7% occurred. Multivariate analysis adjusting for age group at diagnosis and geographic area showed an excess risk of death at 5|2-years, of borderline significance, in 2003-2015 versus 1990-2002. (4) Conclusions: One- and 2-year NS and 5|2-year CNS showed no improvements. Current strategies for VSCC control need to be revised both in Italy and at the global level.

Female breast cancer subtypes in the Romagna Unit of the Emilia-Romagna cancer registry, and estimated incident cases by subtypes and age in Italy in 2020.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to estimate the Italian burden of incident breast cancer (BC) by subtypes, according to the distribution of hormonal receptor (HR) status and expression of human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2). METHODS: Female breast cancers incidence in the Romagna Unit of the Emilia-Romagna registry (n. 10,711) were grouped into: HR+ /HER2-, HR+ /HER2+ , HR-/HER2+ , HR-/HER2- and missing, and by age: < 50, 50-69 and 70+ years. Data were compared with other published Italian population-bases series before using them for national estimates. We used national and regional numbers of expected breast cancers published by the Italian network of cancer registries considering the age- and geographic-specific variation of the Italian population. RESULTS: Overall, 70.7% of incident BC cases are expected to be HR+ /HER2-, 8.5% HR+ /HER2+ , 7.5% HR-/HER2-, 4.1% HR-/HER2+ and 9.3% missing. The global ranking is similar across age-groups but with age-specific differences. The proportion of missing was around 3-times lower than in the other Italian published population-based series and similar to the SEER one. In Italy, are estimated 38,841 HR+ /HER2- breast cancer cases, 4665 HR+ /HER2+ , 4098 HR-/HER2-, 2281 HR-/HER2+ , and 5092 not specified. Numbers by age-group were provided. CONCLUSIONS: The present estimates relied on high-quality population-based data and provide a clinically relevant information on the burden of breast cancer subtypes. These data will support the planning of therapy needs for oncologists, decision-makers, and all other stakeholders.

Patient presentation, skin biopsy utilization and cutaneous malignant melanoma incidence and mortality in northern Italy: Trends and correlations.

BACKGROUND: The global increase in incidence of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) occurring in the past decades has been partly attributed to increased diagnostic scrutiny of early lesions, with a potential phenomenon of overdiagnosis. The reported positive linear relation between skin biopsy rate and incidence of early CMM is compatible with this hypothesis. OBJECTIVES: We explored the ecological association between the trends in annual dermatologic office visit rates, skin biopsy rates, incidence rates of in situ and invasive CMM by tumour thickness category, and CMM mortality rates in the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy). METHODS: Four cancer registries covering a population of 2,696,000 provided CMM incidence data for the years 2003-2017. Dermatologic office visit rates and skin biopsy rates were calculated using the Regional outpatient care database. All rates were age-standardized. Trends were described with the estimated average annual per cent change (EAAPC). Correlations were tested with the Spearman correlation coefficient. RESULTS: Incidence increased significantly. The increase was steeper for in situ CMM (EAAPC: men, 10.2; women, 6.9) followed by CMM <0.8 mm thick (9.1; 5.2), but the rates grew significantly for most subgroups of CMMs ≥0.8 mm thick. Mortality decreased significantly among women (-2.3) and non-significantly among men. For dermatologic office visit rate and skin biopsy rate the EAAPC were, respectively, 1.7 and 1.8 for men and 1.2 and 0.9 for women. Annual dermatologic office visit rate correlated with skin biopsy rate in both sexes. However, the proportion of skin biopsies out of dermatologic office visits was constant across the years (range: men, 0.182-0.216; women, 0.157-0.191). CONCLUSIONS: In Italy, the increasing CMM incidence trend is, at least in part, genuine. Overdiagnosis-if any-is due to an increased patient presentation at dermatologic offices and not to a lower dermatologic threshold to perform biopsy.

Applying competing risks analysis to recurrences of primary breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: in time-to-event analysis, competing risks are observed when a subject is at risk of multiple types of events. A competing risk is an event that prevents the event of interest from happening or modifies its chance to occur. OBJECTIVES: the purposes of this article are to provide an overview of competing risks analysis and to illustrate its application to the follow-up of breast cancer patients in order to estimate the risk of disease recurrence. DESIGN: cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: population-based random sample of patients with stage I-III primary female breast cancer diagnosed in 2000-2013, aged 15 years or older, resident in the Forlì health care district (northern Italy), treated surgically and with available information regarding disease laterality. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: subhazard ratio, hazard ratio and cumulative incidence function for loco-regional recurrences and distant metastasis during 10 years of follow-up. METHODS: breast cancer recurrences were evaluated taking into account death from any cause and occurrence of a second primary breast cancer as competing risks. Recent developments in competing risks methodology were used. The results obtained were compared with those from the Cox regression model, in which the competing risks were not accounted for. CONCLUSIONS: estimating the risk of recurrence without accounting for the competing risks resulted in a divergence of the hazard/subhazard functions. Competing risks analysis is preferable when the statistical assumption of independence of end-points may be violated.

Clinical Epidemiology of Microinvasive Cervical Carcinoma in an Italian Population Targeted by a Screening Programme.

(1) Background: This population-based study aimed at identifying the factors associated with the likelihood of detection of stage IA cervical carcinoma-versus the detection of stage IB through IV cervical carcinoma-and the patterns of surgical treatment. (2) Methods: Between 1995-2016, 3750 patients living in the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy) were registered with cervical carcinoma, including 2942 eligible patients (median age, 53). Multivariate analysis was performed using binary logistic regression models. (3) Results: The likelihood of stage IA cervical carcinoma (n = 876, 29.8%) did not change over time, decreased with increasing patient age, and was lower for patients with adenocarcinoma and grade 3-4 disease. Three hundred and fifty (40.0%) patients had a conservative treatment, 317 (36.2%) had hysterectomy, 197 (22.5%) had hysterectomy with lymph node dissection (LND), and 12 (1.4%) had a conservative treatment with LND. The proportion of hysterectomy decreased from 70.6% in 1995-1999 to 46.9% in 2011-2016. The likelihood of hysterectomy increased above the age of 40. Among screening-aged (25-64 years) patients, the likelihood of hysterectomy did not differ between screen-detected and non-screen-detected ones. Hysterectomy was increasingly combined with LND. High tumour grade was the strongest determinant of LND during hysterectomy. (4) Conclusions: This study provided a multifaceted overview of stage IA cervical carcinoma over the last decades.

How a faecal immunochemical test screening programme changes annual colorectal cancer incidence rates: an Italian intention-to-screen study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a biennial faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programme in reducing annual colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence in its dynamic target population. METHODS: The target population included over 1,000,000 persons aged 50-69 living in a region of northern Italy. The average annual response rate to invitation was 51.4%. Each observed annual age-standardised (Europe) rate per 100,000 persons between 2005, the year of introduction of the programme, and 2016 was compared with each expected annual rate as estimated with age-period-cohort (men) and age-period (women) models. RESULTS: For both sexes, the rates observed in 1997-2004 and those expected in 2005-2016 were stable. Observed rates increased in 2005, peaked in 2006 (the first full year of screening), dropped significantly below the expected level in 2009, and continued to decrease until 2013 (the eighth full year), after which no further significant changes occurred. In the pooled years 2013-2016, the observed incidence rate per 100,000 persons was 102.2 [95% CI: 97.4, 107.1] for men, 75.6 [95% CI: 71.6, 79.7] for women and 88.4 [95% CI: 85.3, 91.5] for both sexes combined, with an observed:expected incidence rate ratio of 0.68 [95% CI: 0.65, 0.71], 0.79 [95% CI: 0.76, 0.82] and 0.72 [95% CI: 0.66, 0.81], respectively. DISCUSSION: The study provided multiple consistent proofs of a causal relationship between the introduction of screening and a stable 28% decrease in annual CRC incidence after eight years.

The relative contribution of the decreasing trend in tumour thickness to the 2010s increase in net survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy: a population-based investigation.

BACKGROUND: The long-term increase in survival from cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is generally attributed to the decreasing trend in tumour thickness, the single most important prognostic factor. OBJECTIVES: To determine the relative contribution of decreased tumour thickness to the favourable trend in survival from CMM in Italy. METHODS: Eleven local cancer registries covering a population of 8 056 608 (13.4% of the Italian population in 2010) provided records for people with primary CMM registered between 2003 and 2017. Age-standardized 5-year net survival was calculated. Multivariate analysis of 5-year net survival was undertaken by calculating the relative excess risk (RER) of death. The relative contribution of the decrease in tumour thickness to the RER of death was evaluated using a forward stepwise flexible parametric survival model including the available prognostic factors. RESULTS: Over the study period, tumour thickness was inversely associated with 5-year net survival and multivariate RER in both sexes. The median thickness was 0.90 mm in 2003-2007, 0.85 mm in 2008-2012 and 0.75 mm in 2013-2017 among male patients, and 0.78 mm, 0.77 mm and 0.68 mm among female patients, respectively. The 5-year net survival was 86.8%, 89.2% and 93.2% in male patients, and 91.4%, 92.0% and 93.4% in female patients, respectively. In 2013-2017, male patients exhibited the same survival as female patients despite having thicker lesions. For them, the increasing survival trend was more pronounced with increasing thickness, and the inclusion of thickness in the forward stepwise model made the RER in 2013-2017 vs. 2003-2007 increase from 0.64 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.80] to 0.70 (95% CI 0.57-0.86). This indicates that the thickness trend accounted for less than 20% of the survival increase. For female patients, the results were not significant but, with multiple imputation of missing thickness values, the RER rose from 0.74 (95% CI 0.58-0.93) to 0.82 (95% CI 0.66-1.02) in 2013-2017. CONCLUSIONS: For male patients in particular, decrease in tumour thickness accounted for a small part of the improvement in survival observed in 2013-2017. The introduction of targeted therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors in 2013 is most likely to account for the remaining improvement.

Effects of Attendance to an Organized Fecal Immunochemical Test Screening Program on the Risk of Colorectal Cancer: An Observational Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: This cohort study compared colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality between people who participated in an Italian regional biennial fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening program and people who did not. METHODS: The program started in 2005. The target population included over 1,000,000 people aged 50 to 69 years. The FIT was a one-sample OC-Sensor (Eiken Chemical Co, Tokyo, Japan) (cutoff, ≥20 µg hemoglobin/g feces). The average annual response rate to invitation was 51.4%. The records of people invited up to June 2016 were extracted from the screening data warehouse. Attenders were subjects who responded to the first 2 invitations or to the single invitation sent them before they became ineligible. Non-attenders were subjects who did not respond to any of these invitations. The records were linked with the regional CRC registry. People registered up to December 2016 were identified. Self-selection-adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and incidence-based CRC mortality rate ratios (MRRs) for attenders to non-attenders, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), were calculated. RESULTS: The cohort generated 2,622,131 man-years and 2,887,845 woman-years at risk with 4490 and 3309 CRC cases, respectively. The cohort of attenders was associated with an IRR of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.61-0.69) for men, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.70-0.80) for women and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.66-0.72) for both sexes combined. The self-selection-adjusted IRR was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) for men and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.88) for women. The IRR for stage I, II, III, and IV CRC was 1.35 (95% CI, 1.20-1.50), 0.61 (95% CI, 0.53-0.69), 0.60 (95% CI, 0.53-0.68) and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.24-0.32) for men and 1.64 (95% CI, 1.43-1.89), 0.60 (95% CI, 0.52-0.69), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.63-0.85) and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.30-0.42) for women. The overall incidence-based CRC MRR was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.28-0.37) for men, 0.40 (95% CI, 0.34-0.47) for women and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.31-0.39) for both sexes combined. The adjusted MRR was 0.35 (95% CI, 0.29-0.41) for men and 0.46 (95% CI, 0.37-0.58) for women. CONCLUSIONS: Attendance to a FIT screening program is associated with a CRC incidence reduction of 33% among men and 21% among women, and a CRC mortality reduction of 65% and 54%, respectively.

Five-year annual incidence and clinico-molecular features of breast cancer after the last negative screening mammography at age 68-69.

OBJECTIVE: The European Commission Initiative on Breast Cancer recommendation for triennial screening of women aged 70-74 is based on very weak evidence. A cohort of Italian women who had their last biennial screening mammography at age 68-69 was followed up for 5 years, assumed to represent the interval to another hypothetical screening mammography, in order to determine the annual proportional incidence of interval breast cancer. METHODS: The cohort included 118,370 women. They had their last mammography between 1997 and 2008. Incident breast cancers were identified by record-linking the cohort with the regional breast cancer registry. The expected incidence in the age range 65-74 was estimated with an age-period-cohort model. The number of interval cancers was divided by the expected number to obtain their proportional incidence. RESULTS: Overall, there were 298,658 woman-years at risk with 371 interval cancers versus 988.8 expected. In the first, second, third, fourth, and fifth interval year, the proportional incidence was 0.09 (95% confidence interval, 0.06-0.13), 0.32 (0.25-0.39), 0.60 (0.49-0.73), 0.75 (0.60-0.92), and 0.81 (0.60-1.07), respectively. Between the second and the fifth year, tumour stage and molecular subtype did not change significantly. CONCLUSION: Though not supported by these findings, the proposal of triennial screening for women aged 70-74 merits further research, because the 95% confidence interval of the third-year proportional incidence of interval cancer included 0.50-the maximum limit considered acceptable for women aged 50-69. KEY POINTS: • The third-year incidence of breast cancer relative to the expected one was 0.60 (95% confidence interval, 0.49-0.73). • Between the second and the fifth year, tumour stage and molecular subtype did not change significantly (p >0.10). • The proposal of a 3-year screening interval at age 70-74 merits further evaluation.

Mid-term trends and recent birth-cohort-dependent changes in incidence rates of cutaneous malignant melanoma in Italy.

In Oceania, North America and north-western Europe, after decades of increase, cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) rates began to stabilise or decline before 2000. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the reversal of the incidence trend is extending to southern Europe. To obtain a formal confirmation, this nationwide study from Italy investigated the incidence trends by birth cohort. Twenty-one local cancer registries covering a population of 15 814 455 provided incidence data for primary CMM registered between 1994 and 2013. Trends in age-standardised rates were analysed using joinpoint regression models and age-period-cohort models. Age-standardised incidence showed a consistent increase throughout the period (estimated annual percent change, 3.6 [95% confidence interval, 3.2-4.0] among men and 2.5 [2.0-3.1] among women). This pattern was confirmed by a sensitivity analysis with removal of low-risk populations of southern Italy. The rates, however, showed a stabilisation or a decrease in men and women aged below 35. Using the cohort of 1949-the median cohort with respect to the number of cases for both genders-as a reference, the incidence rate ratio increased for successive cohorts born until 1973 (women) and 1975 (men), and subsequently tended to decline. For the most recent cohorts in both genders, the risk of disease returned to the level of the cohort of 1949. The changes observed in the latest generations can be interpreted as the earliest manifestations of a birth-cohort-dependent incidence decrease. Our study adds to previous data indicating that the reversal of the long-term upward incidence trend of CMM is extending to southern Europe.

Melanoma survival with Classification and Regression Trees Analysis: a complement for the communication of prognosis to patients.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic factors in cutaneous melanoma are commonly evaluated by the Cox proportional hazard model. However, the interpretation of the effect of multiple variables is not straightforward. Classification and Regression Trees Analysis (CART), which allows a more friendly data evaluation, could be a valid integration of the message from Cox model. METHODS: The CART algorithm splits up data, creating a "tree" of groups of patients with different profiles for the risk of death. Results are easy to interpret in clinical practice. A total of 2692 patients with invasive cutaneous melanoma registered in Romagna (northern Italy) between 1993-2012 and followed-up until the end of 2013 were included. The Cox model and CART analysis were applied to sex, patient age, histological subtype, Breslow's tumor thickness, ulceration, site of disease, and Clark level. RESULTS: The CART analysis identified 15 categories which were collapsed into five classes with statistically different survival. The best prognostic group (10-year observed survival, 99.1%) included subjects with Breslow thickness ≤0.78 mm and age 16-81 years. The worst prognostic group (10-year observed survival, 35.8%) comprised subjects with thickness ≥3.75 mm and age 16-96 years. According to the Cox model, patient age, histological subtype, Breslow thickness, ulceration, and site of disease had a significant independent prognostic value. CONCLUSIONS: CART and Cox models provided consistent results. CART seemed friendlier in its interpretation and it could facilitate the communication of risk.

Incidence of interval breast cancer among women aged 45-49 in an organised mammography screening setting.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the proportional incidence (PI) of first- and second-year interval breast cancer among women aged 45-49. METHODS: In the Emilia-Romagna Region (northern Italy), women aged 45-49 are invited to mammography screening annually, and women aged 50-74 biennially. For younger ones, the proportional incidence of interval cancer in the first and unique interval year was calculated using standard methods. For the second, hypothetical year, it was estimated using two different estimates of the ratio between the second- and the first-year proportional incidence observed among women aged 50-54. Overall, 567,151 negative mammography records were used. RESULTS: In the first interval year, the observed proportional incidence of interval cancer among women aged 45-49 was 0.27 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.22-0.33), within the European limit considered desirable for women aged 50-69 (<0.30). In the second, hypothetical interval year, the estimated proportional incidence ranged from 0.61 (95% CI, 0.43-0.86) to 0.48 (95% CI, 0.31-0.76) depending on whether the estimate was based on data from the pre-digital or digital era, respectively. CONCLUSION: The more up-to-date estimate of 0.48, slightly below the maximum limit considered acceptable for women aged 50-69 (<0.50), suggests that a screening interval of two years may also be an acceptable option for women aged 45-49.

Results of Compliant Participation in Five Rounds of Fecal Immunochemical Test Screening for Colorectal Cancer.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We investigated the magnitude and temporal patterns of the decreasing trend in main performance measures of fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) observed in second and subsequent rounds. METHODS: We followed up 494,187 participants from the first round of a regional biennial FIT screening program in Italy (cut-off value for positivity, 20 µg hemoglobin/g feces) for 5 total rounds (2005-2016). At each round, only compliant participants were eligible. Performance measures from the first, third, fourth, and fifth rounds were compared with those from the second round (the first incidence round) using rate ratios from multivariate Poisson regression models and relative risk ratios from multinomial logistic regression models. RESULTS: Between the second and the third rounds, a significant 20% to 30% decrease was found in the proportion of men with a positive FIT result (from 5.2% to 4.3%) and in detection rates of advanced adenoma (from 13.4 to 10.2 per 1000), CRC (from 1.7 to 1.4 per 1000), and advanced neoplasia (from 15.1 to 11.6 per 1000). Positive predictive values (PPVs) decreased by 10% or less between the second and third rounds. Detection rates and PPVs for adenoma stabilized by the fourth and fifth rounds. The PPVs for advanced adenoma, CRC, and advanced neoplasia decreased slightly in men and women by the fourth and fifth rounds. The detection rate of proximal colon cancer stabilized after the second round, whereas the detection rate of distal colon cancer decreased until the fourth round in men (from 0.7 to 0.3 per 1000), and the fifth round in women. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the notion that FIT screening prevents progression of a subset of advanced adenomas. Screening intensity could be modulated based on results from previous rounds, with a risk-based strategy.

Incidence trends of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma in Italy from 1990 to 2015.

OBJECTIVE: The incidence of vulvar squamous cell carcinoma has increased for decades in most Western countries - a trend virtually restricted to women aged <50 or 60 years. In southern Europe, conversely, the trends have been insufficiently studied. This article reports a study from Italy. METHOD: Thirty-eight local cancer registries, currently covering 15,274,070 women, equivalent to 49.2% of the Italian national female population, participated. Invasive cancers registered between 1990 and 2015 with an International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd revision, topography code C51 and morphology codes compatible with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (n = 6294) were eligible. Incidence trends were analysed using joinpoint regression models, with calculation of the estimated annual percent change (EAPC), and age-period-cohort models. RESULTS: Total incidence showed a regular and significant decreasing trend (EAPC, -0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI), -1.43 to -0.48). This was entirely accounted for by women aged ≥60 years (EAPC, -1.34; 95% CI, -1.86 to -0.81). For younger women, the EAPC between 1990 and 2012 was 1.20 (95% CI, 0.34 to 2.06) with a non-significant acceleration thereafter. This pattern did not vary substantially in a sensitivity analysis for the effect of geographic area and duration of the registry. The age-period-cohort analysis revealed a risk decrease in cohorts born between 1905 and 1940 and a new increase in cohorts born since 1945. CONCLUSIONS: The decreasing trend observed among older women and the resulting decrease in total rate are at variance with reports from most Western countries. Age-period-cohort analysis confirmed a decreasing trend for earliest birth cohorts and an opposite one for recent ones.

Proportional incidence of interval colorectal cancer in a large population-based faecal immunochemical test screening programme.

BACKGROUND: The European guidelines for quality assurance in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommend that interval cancer rate be expressed as a proportion of background incidence rate. AIM: To determine the crude and adjusted proportional incidence of interval CRC in an Italian regional two-yearly faecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programme. METHODS: The programme (year of implementation, 2005) is targeted at over 1,000,000 people aged 50-69 years. The test is a one-sample OC-Sensor (Eiken Chemical Co., Tokyo, Japan). The study covered one-third of the regional area. Excerpts of 434,295 eligible negative FIT records dated 2005-2012 from 193,193 subjects were retrieved from the regional CRC screening data warehouse. By 31 December 2013, the cohort accumulated 198,302 man-years and 235,370 woman-years. Interval CRCs were identified by record-linkage with the local population-based cancer registry. Their number was divided by the expected number, estimated with age-period-cohort models, to obtain the proportional incidence. RESULTS: The proportional incidence of interval CRC for men and women was, respectively, 0.06 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.04-0.09) and 0.17 (95% CI, 0.13-0.23) in the first interval year, and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.16-0.26) and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.22-0.36) in the second year. CONCLUSIONS: The results were acceptable and in line with previous studies.