Personalizing progressive changes to brain structure in Alzheimer's disease using normative modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Neuroanatomical normative modeling captures individual variability in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here we used normative modeling to track individuals' disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with AD. METHODS: Cortical and subcortical normative models were generated using healthy controls (n ≈ 58k). These models were used to calculate regional z scores in 3233 T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging time-series scans from 1181 participants. Regions with z scores < -1.96 were classified as outliers mapped on the brain and summarized by total outlier count (tOC). RESULTS: tOC increased in AD and in people with MCI who converted to AD and also correlated with multiple non-imaging markers. Moreover, a higher annual rate of change in tOC increased the risk of progression from MCI to AD. Brain outlier maps identified the hippocampus as having the highest rate of change. DISCUSSION: Individual patients' atrophy rates can be tracked by using regional outlier maps and tOC. HIGHLIGHTS: Neuroanatomical normative modeling was applied to serial Alzheimer's disease (AD) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data for the first time. Deviation from the norm (outliers) of cortical thickness or brain volume was computed in 3233 scans. The number of brain-structure outliers increased over time in people with AD. Patterns of change in outliers varied markedly between individual patients with AD. People with mild cognitive impairment whose outliers increased over time had a higher risk of progression from AD.

Alzheimer's disease heterogeneity revealed by neuroanatomical normative modeling.

INTRODUCTION: Overlooking the heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease (AD) may lead to diagnostic delays and failures. Neuroanatomical normative modeling captures individual brain variation and may inform our understanding of individual differences in AD-related atrophy. METHODS: We applied neuroanatomical normative modeling to magnetic resonance imaging from a real-world clinical cohort with confirmed AD (n = 86). Regional cortical thickness was compared to a healthy reference cohort (n = 33,072) and the number of outlying regions was summed (total outlier count) and mapped at individual- and group-levels. RESULTS: The superior temporal sulcus contained the highest proportion of outliers (60%). Elsewhere, overlap between patient atrophy patterns was low. Mean total outlier count was higher in patients who were non-amnestic, at more advanced disease stages, and without depressive symptoms. Amyloid burden was negatively associated with outlier count. DISCUSSION: Brain atrophy in AD is highly heterogeneous and neuroanatomical normative modeling can be used to explore anatomo-clinical correlations in individual patients.

Personalising Alzheimer's Disease progression using brain atrophy markers.

INTRODUCTION: Neuroanatomical normative modelling can capture individual variability in Alzheimer's Disease (AD). We used neuroanatomical normative modelling to track individuals' disease progression in people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and patients with AD. METHODS: Cortical thickness and subcortical volume neuroanatomical normative models were generated using healthy controls (n~58k). These models were used to calculate regional Z-scores in 4361 T1-weighted MRI time-series scans. Regions with Z-scores <-1.96 were classified as outliers and mapped on the brain, and also summarised by total outlier count (tOC). RESULTS: Rate of change in tOC increased in AD and in people with MCI who converted to AD and correlated with multiple non-imaging markers. Moreover, a higher annual rate of change in tOC increased the risk of MCI progression to AD. Brain Z-score maps showed that the hippocampus had the highest rate of atrophy change. CONCLUSIONS: Individual-level atrophy rates can be tracked by using regional outlier maps and tOC.

Revealing Individual Neuroanatomical Heterogeneity in Alzheimer Disease Using Neuroanatomical Normative Modeling.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Alzheimer disease (AD) is highly heterogeneous, with marked individual differences in clinical presentation and neurobiology. To explore this, we used neuroanatomical normative modeling to index regional patterns of variability in cortical thickness. We aimed to characterize individual differences and outliers in cortical thickness in patients with AD, people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and controls. Furthermore, we assessed the relationships between cortical thickness heterogeneity and cognitive function, ß-amyloid, phosphorylated-tau, and ApoE genotype. Finally, we examined whether cortical thickness heterogeneity was predictive of conversion from MCI to AD. METHODS: Cortical thickness measurements across 148 brain regions were obtained from T1-weighted MRI scans from 62 sites of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. AD was determined by clinical and neuropsychological examination with no comorbidities present. Participants with MCI had reported memory complaints, and controls were cognitively normal. A neuroanatomical normative model indexed cortical thickness distributions using a separate healthy reference data set (n = 33,072), which used hierarchical Bayesian regression to predict cortical thickness per region using age and sex, while adjusting for site noise. Z-scores per region were calculated, resulting in a Z-score brain map per participant. Regions with Z-scores <-1.96 were classified as outliers. RESULTS: Patients with AD (n = 206) had a median of 12 outlier regions (out of a possible 148), with the highest proportion of outliers (47%) in the parahippocampal gyrus. For 62 regions, over 90% of these patients had cortical thicknesses within the normal range. Patients with AD had more outlier regions than people with MCI (n = 662) or controls (n = 159) (F(2, 1,022) = 95.39, p = 2.0 × 10-16). They were also more dissimilar to each other than people with MCI or controls (F(2, 1,024) = 209.42, p = 2.2 × 10-16). A greater number of outlier regions were associated with worse cognitive function, CSF protein concentrations, and an increased risk of converting from MCI to AD within 3 years (hazard ratio 1.028, 95% CI 1.016-1.039, p = 1.8 × 10-16). DISCUSSION: Individualized normative maps of cortical thickness highlight the heterogeneous effect of AD on the brain. Regional outlier estimates have the potential to be a marker of disease and could be used to track an individual's disease progression or treatment response in clinical trials.

The normative modeling framework for computational psychiatry.

Normative modeling is an emerging and innovative framework for mapping individual differences at the level of a single subject or observation in relation to a reference model. It involves charting centiles of variation across a population in terms of mappings between biology and behavior, which can then be used to make statistical inferences at the level of the individual. The fields of computational psychiatry and clinical neuroscience have been slow to transition away from patient versus 'healthy' control analytic approaches, probably owing to a lack of tools designed to properly model biological heterogeneity of mental disorders. Normative modeling provides a solution to address this issue and moves analysis away from case-control comparisons that rely on potentially noisy clinical labels. Here we define a standardized protocol to guide users through, from start to finish, normative modeling analysis using the Predictive Clinical Neuroscience toolkit (PCNtoolkit). We describe the input data selection process, provide intuition behind the various modeling choices and conclude by demonstrating several examples of downstream analyses that the normative model may facilitate, such as stratification of high-risk individuals, subtyping and behavioral predictive modeling. The protocol takes ~1-3 h to complete.

Charting brain growth and aging at high spatial precision.

Defining reference models for population variation, and the ability to study individual deviations is essential for understanding inter-individual variability and its relation to the onset and progression of medical conditions. In this work, we assembled a reference cohort of neuroimaging data from 82 sites (N=58,836; ages 2-100) and used normative modeling to characterize lifespan trajectories of cortical thickness and subcortical volume. Models are validated against a manually quality checked subset (N=24,354) and we provide an interface for transferring to new data sources. We showcase the clinical value by applying the models to a transdiagnostic psychiatric sample (N=1985), showing they can be used to quantify variability underlying multiple disorders whilst also refining case-control inferences. These models will be augmented with additional samples and imaging modalities as they become available. This provides a common reference platform to bind results from different studies and ultimately paves the way for personalized clinical decision-making.

Beyond the average patient: how neuroimaging models can address heterogeneity in dementia.

Dementia is a highly heterogeneous condition, with pronounced individual differences in age of onset, clinical presentation, progression rates and neuropathological hallmarks, even within a specific diagnostic group. However, the most common statistical designs used in dementia research studies and clinical trials overlook this heterogeneity, instead relying on comparisons of group average differences (e.g. patient versus control or treatment versus placebo), implicitly assuming within-group homogeneity. This one-size-fits-all approach potentially limits our understanding of dementia aetiology, hindering the identification of effective treatments. Neuroimaging has enabled the characterization of the average neuroanatomical substrates of dementias; however, the increasing availability of large open neuroimaging datasets provides the opportunity to examine patterns of neuroanatomical variability in individual patients. In this update, we outline the causes and consequences of heterogeneity in dementia and discuss recent research that aims to tackle heterogeneity directly, rather than assuming that dementia affects everyone in the same way. We introduce spatial normative modelling as an emerging data-driven technique, which can be applied to dementia data to model neuroanatomical variation, capturing individualized neurobiological 'fingerprints'. Such methods have the potential to detect clinically relevant subtypes, track an individual's disease progression or evaluate treatment responses, with the goal of moving towards precision medicine for dementia.

TwinsUK: The UK Adult Twin Registry Update.

TwinsUK is the largest cohort of community-dwelling adult twins in the UK. The registry comprises over 14,000 volunteer twins (14,838 including mixed, single and triplets); it is predominantly female (82%) and middle-aged (mean age 59). In addition, over 1800 parents and siblings of twins are registered volunteers. During the last 27 years, TwinsUK has collected numerous questionnaire responses, physical/cognitive measures and biological measures on over 8500 subjects. Data were collected alongside four comprehensive phenotyping clinical visits to the Department of Twin Research and Genetic Epidemiology, King's College London. Such collection methods have resulted in very detailed longitudinal clinical, biochemical, behavioral, dietary and socioeconomic cohort characterization; it provides a multidisciplinary platform for the study of complex disease during the adult life course, including the process of healthy aging. The major strength of TwinsUK is the availability of several 'omic' technologies for a range of sample types from participants, which includes genomewide scans of single-nucleotide variants, next-generation sequencing, metabolomic profiles, microbiomics, exome sequencing, epigenetic markers, gene expression arrays, RNA sequencing and telomere length measures. TwinsUK facilitates and actively encourages sharing the 'TwinsUK' resource with the scientific community - interested researchers may request data via the TwinsUK website (http://twinsuk.ac.uk/resources-for-researchers/access-our-data/) for their own use or future collaboration with the study team. In addition, further cohort data collection is planned via the Wellcome Open Research gateway (https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/gateways). The current article presents an up-to-date report on the application of technological advances, new study procedures in the cohort and future direction of TwinsUK.

An Investigation Into Physical Frailty as a Link Between the Gut Microbiome and Cognitive Health.

The preservation of cognitive abilities with aging is a priority both for individuals and nations given the aging populations of many countries. Recently the gut microbiome has been identified as a new territory to explore in relation to cognition. Experiments using rodents have identified a link between the gut microbiome and cognitive function, particularly that low microbial diversity leads to poor cognition function. Similar studies in humans could identify novel targets to encourage healthy cognition in an aging population. Here, we investigate the association of gut microbiota and cognitive function in a human cohort considering the influence of physical frailty. We analyzed 16S rRNA gene sequence data, derived from fecal samples obtained from 1,551 individuals over the age of 40. Cognitive data was collected using four cognitive tests: verbal fluency (n = 1,368), Deary-Liewald Reaction Time Test (DLRT; n = 873), Mini Mental State Examination (recall; n = 1,374) and Paired Associates Learning from the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB-PAL; n = 405). We use mixed effects models to identify associations with alpha diversity, operational taxonomic units (OTUs) and taxa and performed further analyses adjusting for physical frailty. We then repeated the analyses in a subset of individuals with dietary data, also excluding those using medications shown to influence gut microbiome composition. DLRT and verbal fluency were negatively associated with alpha diversity of the gut microbiota (False-Discovery Rate, FDR, p < 0.05). However, when considering frailty as a covariate, only associations between the DLRT and diversity measures remained. Repeating analyses excluding Proton pump inhibitor (PPI) and antibiotic users and accounting for diet, we similarly observe significant negative associations between the DLRT and alpha diversity measures and a further negative association between DLRT and the abundance of the order Burkholderiales that remains significant after adjusting for host frailty. This highlights the importance of considering concurrent differences in physical health in studies of cognitive performance and suggests that physical health has a relatively larger association with the gut microbiome. However, the frailty independent cognitive-gut microbiota associations that were observed might represent important targets for further research, with potential for use in diagnostic surveillance in cognitive aging and interventions to improve vitality.

Multi-OMICS analyses of frailty and chronic widespread musculoskeletal pain suggest involvement of shared neurological pathways.

Chronic widespread musculoskeletal pain (CWP) and frailty are prevalent conditions in older people. We have shown previously that interindividual variation in frailty and CWP is genetically determined. We also reported an association of frailty and CWP caused by shared genetic and common environmental factors. The aim of this study was to use omic approaches to identify molecular genetic factors underlying the heritability of frailty and its genetic correlation with CWP. Frailty was quantified through the Rockwood Frailty Index (FI) as a proportion of deficits from 33 binary health deficit questions in 3626 female twins. Common widespread pain was assessed using a screening questionnaire. OMICS analysis included 305 metabolites and whole-genome (>2.5 × 10 SNPs) and epigenome (∼1 × 10 MeDIP-seq regions) assessments performed on fasting blood samples. Using family-based statistical analyses, including path analysis, we examined how FI scores were related to molecular genetic factors and to CWP, taking into account known risk factors such as fat mass and smoking. Frailty Index was significantly correlated with 51 metabolites after correction for multiple testing, with 20 metabolites having P-values between 2.1 × 10 and 4.0 × 10. Three metabolites (uridine, C-glycosyl tryptophan, and N-acetyl glycine) were statistically independent and thought to exert a direct effect on FI. Epiandrosterone sulphate, previously shown to be highly inversely associated with CWP, was found to exert an indirect influence on FI. Bioinformatics analysis of genome-wide association study and EWAS showed that FI and its covariation with CWP was through genomic regions involved in neurological pathways. Neurological pathway involvement accounts for the associated conditions of aging CWP and FI.

Gut microbiota associations with common diseases and prescription medications in a population-based cohort.

The human gut microbiome has been associated with many health factors but variability between studies limits exploration of effects between them. Gut microbiota profiles are available for >2700 members of the deeply phenotyped TwinsUK cohort, providing a uniform platform for such comparisons. Here, we present gut microbiota association analyses for 38 common diseases and 51 medications within the cohort. We describe several novel associations, highlight associations common across multiple diseases, and determine which diseases and medications have the greatest association with the gut microbiota. These results provide a reference for future studies of the gut microbiome and its role in human health.

Shared genetic influence on frailty and chronic widespread pain: a study from TwinsUK.

Introduction: frailty is an increased vulnerability to adverse health outcomes, across multiple physiological systems, with both environmental and genetic drivers. The two most commonly used measures are Rockwood's frailty index (FI) and Fried's frailty phenotype (FP). Material and methods: the present study included 3626 individuals from the TwinsUK Adult Twin Registry. We used the classical twin model to determine whether FI and FP share the same latent aetiological factors. We also investigated the relationship between frailty and chronic widespread musculoskeletal pain (CWP), another holistic age-related condition with significant clinical impact. Results: FP and FI shared underlying genetic and environmental aetiology. CWP was associated with both frailty measures, and health deficits appeared to mediate the relationship between phenotypic frailty and pain. Latent genetic factors underpinning CWP were shared with frailty. While frailty was increased in the twins reporting pain, co-twin regression analysis indicated that the relationship between CWP and frailty is reduced after accounting for shared genetic and environmental factors. Conclusions: both measures of frailty tap the same root causes, thus this work helps unify frailty research. We confirmed a strong association between CWP and frailty, and showed a large and significant shared genetic aetiology of both phenomena. Our findings argue against pain being a significant causative factor in the development of frailty, favouring common causation. This study highlights the need to manage CWP in frail individuals and undertake a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment in individuals presenting with CWP. Finally, the search for genetic factors underpinning CWP and frailty could be aided by integrating measures of pain and frailty.

Generalised Anxiety Disorder--A Twin Study of Genetic Architecture, Genome-Wide Association and Differential Gene Expression.

Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD) is a common anxiety-related diagnosis, affecting approximately 5% of the adult population. One characteristic of GAD is a high degree of anxiety sensitivity (AS), a personality trait which describes the fear of arousal-related sensations. Here we present a genome-wide association study of AS using a cohort of 730 MZ and DZ female twins. The GWAS showed a significant association for a variant within the RBFOX1 gene. A heritability analysis of the same cohort also confirmed a significant genetic component with h2 of 0.42. Additionally, a subset of the cohort (25 MZ twins discordant for AS) was studied for evidence of differential expression using RNA-seq data. Significant differential expression of two exons with the ITM2B gene within the discordant MZ subset was observed, a finding that was replicated in an independent cohort. While previous research has shown that anxiety has a high comorbidity with a variety of psychiatric and neurodegenerative disorders, our analysis suggests a novel etiology specific to AS.