Evaluation of PrediXcan for prioritizing GWAS associations and predicting gene expression.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been successful in facilitating the understanding of genetic architecture behind human diseases, but this approach faces many challenges. To identify disease-related loci with modest to weak effect size, GWAS requires very large sample sizes, which can be computational burdensome. In addition, the interpretation of discovered associations remains difficult. PrediXcan was developed to help address these issues. With built in SNP-expression models, PrediXcan is able to predict the expression of genes that are regulated by putative expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs), and these predicted expression levels can then be used to perform gene-based association studies. This approach reduces the multiple testing burden from millions of variants down to several thousand genes. But most importantly, the identified associations can reveal the genes that are under regulation of eQTLs and consequently involved in disease pathogenesis. In this study, two of the most practical functions of PrediXcan were tested: 1) predicting gene expression, and 2) prioritizing GWAS results. We tested the prediction accuracy of PrediXcan by comparing the predicted and observed gene expression levels, and also looked into some potential influential factors and a filter criterion with the aim of improving PrediXcan performance. As for GWAS prioritization, predicted gene expression levels were used to obtain gene-trait associations, and background regions of significant associations were examined to decrease the likelihood of false positives. Our results showed that 1) PrediXcan predicted gene expression levels accurately for some but not all genes; 2) including more putative eQTLs into prediction did not improve the prediction accuracy; and 3) integrating predicted gene expression levels from the two PrediXcan whole blood models did not eliminate false positives. Still, PrediXcan was able to prioritize GWAS associations that were below the genome-wide significance threshold in GWAS, while retaining GWAS significant results. This study suggests several ways to consider PrediXcan's performance that will be of value to eQTL and complex human disease research.

Assessment of whole-genome regression for type II diabetes.

Lifestyle and genetic factors play a large role in the development of Type 2 Diabetes (T2D). Despite the important role of genetic factors, genetic information is not incorporated into the clinical assessment of T2D risk. We assessed and compared Whole Genome Regression methods to predict the T2D status of 5,245 subjects from the Framingham Heart Study. For evaluating each method we constructed the following set of regression models: A clinical baseline model (CBM) which included non-genetic covariates only. CBM was extended by adding the first two marker-derived principal components and 65 SNPs identified by a recent GWAS consortium for T2D (M-65SNPs). Subsequently, it was further extended by adding 249,798 genome-wide SNPs from a high-density array. The Bayesian models used to incorporate genome-wide marker information as predictors were: Bayes A, Bayes Cπ, Bayesian LASSO (BL), and the Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (G-BLUP). Results included estimates of the genetic variance and heritability, genetic scores for T2D, and predictive ability evaluated in a 10-fold cross-validation. The predictive AUC estimates for CBM and M-65SNPs were: 0.668 and 0.684, respectively. We found evidence of contribution of genetic effects in T2D, as reflected in the genomic heritability estimates (0.492±0.066). The highest predictive AUC among the genome-wide marker Bayesian models was 0.681 for the Bayesian LASSO. Overall, the improvement in predictive ability was moderate and did not differ greatly among models that included genetic information. Approximately 58% of the total number of genetic variants was found to contribute to the overall genetic variation, indicating a complex genetic architecture for T2D. Our results suggest that the Bayes Cπ and the G-BLUP models with a large set of genome-wide markers could be used for predicting risk to T2D, as an alternative to using high-density arrays when selected markers from large consortiums for a given complex trait or disease are unavailable.