Environmental predictors for the restoration of a critically endangered coral, Acropora palmata, along the Florida reef tract.

The population decline and lack of natural recovery of multiple coral species along the Florida reef tract have instigated the expanding application of coral restoration and conservation efforts. Few studies, however, have determined the optimal locations for the survival of outplanted coral colonies from restoration nurseries. This study predicts the optimal locations for Acropora palmata colonies along the Florida reef tract using a boosted-regression-tree model to examine the relationships between the occurrence of wild A. palmata and ten environmental variables. Our model results predicted A. palmata was most likely to occur in shallow reef habitats with (i) generally low mean chlorophyll-a concentrations (< 1 mg m-3), (ii) moderate fetch (3 kJ m-2), (iii) salinities between 20 and 37.5 ppt, (iv) temperatures between 20 and 32°C, (vi) low mean concentrations of total nitrogen (0.16 ppm), and (iv) irradiance between 26.5 and 53.5 mol m-2 s-1. The most suitable habitats for A. palmata were disproportionately allocated to reefs in Biscayne Bay, the Upper Keys, the western-lower Florida Keys, the Marquesas, and the Dry Tortugas. The middle Florida Keys had unfavorable environmental conditions for A. palmata habitat. Results from this study inform where A. palmata, outplanted as part of restoration and conservation efforts, would have suitable environmental conditions to persist over time. This study also provides decision-making support for management focused on the conservation and restoration of the endangered species A. palmata along the Florida reef tract.

Closing the gap between existing large-area imaging research and marine conservation needs.

Emerging technology has immense potential to increase the scale and efficiency of marine conservation. One such technology is large-area imaging (LAI), which relies on structure-from-motion photogrammetry to create composite products, including 3-dimensional (3-D) environmental models, that are larger in spatial extent than the individual images used to create them. Use of LAI has become widespread in certain fields of marine science, primarily to measure the 3D structure of benthic ecosystems and track change over time. However, the use of LAI in the field of marine conservation appears limited. We conducted a review of the coral reef literature on the use of LAI to identify research themes and regional trends in applications of this technology. We also surveyed 135 coral reef scientists and conservation practitioners to determine community familiarity with LAI, evaluate barriers practitioners face in using LAI, and identify applications of LAI believed to be most exciting or relevant to coral conservation. Adoption of LAI was limited primarily to researchers at institutions based in advanced economies and was applied infrequently to conservation, although conservation practitioners and survey respondents from emerging economies indicated they expect to use LAI in the future. Our results revealed disconnect between current LAI research topics and conservation priorities identified by practitioners, highlighting the need for more diverse, conservation-relevant research using LAI. We provide recommendations for how early adopters of LAI (typically Global North scientists from well-resourced institutions) can facilitate access to this conservation technology. These recommendations include developing training resources, creating partnerships for data storage and analysis, publishing standard operating procedures for LAI workflows, standardizing methods, developing tools for efficient data extraction from LAI products, and conducting conservation-relevant research using LAI.

Reducción de la brecha entre la investigación actual de imágenes de gran superficie y las necesidades de la conservación marina Resumen Las nuevas tecnologías tienen un enorme potencial para aumentar la escala y la eficiencia de la conservación marina. Una de ellas son las imágenes de gran superficie (IGS), que se basan en la fotogrametría de estructura a partir del movimiento para crear productos compuestos, incluidos modelos ambientales tridimensionales (3D), cuya extensión espacial es mayor que la de las imágenes individuales utilizadas para crearlos. El uso de las IGS se ha generalizado en determinados campos de las ciencias marinas, principalmente para medir la estructura tridimensional de los ecosistemas bentónicos y realizar un seguimiento de los cambios a lo largo del tiempo. Sin embargo, el uso de las IGS en el campo de la conservación marina parece limitado. Realizamos una revisión de la bibliografía sobre el uso de las IGS en los arrecifes de coral para identificar temas de investigación y tendencias regionales en las aplicaciones de esta tecnología. También encuestamos a 135 científicos de arrecifes de coral y profesionales de la conservación para determinar la familiaridad de la comunidad con las IGS, evaluar las barreras a las que se enfrentan los profesionales en el uso de las IGS e identificar sus aplicaciones consideradas como las más interesantes o relevantes para la conservación del coral. La adopción de las IGS se limitó principalmente a los investigadores de las instituciones con sede en las economías avanzadas y se aplicó con poca frecuencia a la conservación, aunque los profesionales de la conservación y los encuestados de las economías emergentes indicaron que esperan utilizar las IGS en el futuro. Nuestros resultados revelaron una desconexión entre los actuales temas de investigación de las IGS y las prioridades de conservación identificadas por los profesionales, lo que subraya la necesidad de una investigación más diversa y relevante para la conservación mediante el uso de las IGS.

Restoration and coral adaptation delay, but do not prevent, climate-driven reef framework erosion of an inshore site in the Florida Keys.

For reef framework to persist, calcium carbonate production by corals and other calcifiers needs to outpace loss due to physical, chemical, and biological erosion. This balance is both delicate and dynamic and is currently threatened by the effects of ocean warming and acidification. Although the protection and recovery of ecosystem functions are at the center of most restoration and conservation programs, decision makers are limited by the lack of predictive tools to forecast habitat persistence under different emission scenarios. To address this, we developed a modelling approach, based on carbonate budgets, that ties species-specific responses to site-specific global change using the latest generation of climate models projections (CMIP6). We applied this model to Cheeca Rocks, an outlier in the Florida Keys in terms of high coral cover, and explored the outcomes of restoration targets scheduled in the coming 20 years at this site by the Mission: Iconic Reefs restoration initiative. Additionally, we examined the potential effects of coral thermal adaptation by increasing the bleaching threshold by 0.25, 0.5, 1 and 2˚C. Regardless of coral adaptative capacity or restoration, net carbonate production at Cheeca Rocks declines heavily once the threshold for the onset of annual severe bleaching is reached. The switch from net accretion to net erosion, however, is significantly delayed by mitigation and adaptation. The maintenance of framework accretion until 2100 and beyond is possible under a decreased emission scenario coupled with thermal adaptation above 0.5˚C. Although restoration initiatives increase reef accretion estimates, Cheeca Rocks will only be able to keep pace with future sea-level rise in a world where anthropogenic CO2 emissions are reduced. Present results, however, attest to the potential of restoration interventions combined with increases in coral thermal tolerance to delay the onset of mass bleaching mortalities, possibly in time for a low-carbon economy to be implemented and complementary mitigation measures to become effective.

Low net carbonate accretion characterizes Florida's coral reef.

Coral reef habitat is created when calcium carbonate production by calcifiers exceeds removal by physical and biological erosion. Carbonate budget surveys provide a means of quantifying the framework-altering actions of diverse assemblages of marine species to determine net carbonate production, a single metric that encapsulates reef habitat persistence. In this study, carbonate budgets were calculated for 723 sites across the Florida Reef Tract (FRT) using benthic cover and parrotfish demographic data from NOAA's National Coral Reef Monitoring Program, as well as high-resolution LiDAR topobathymetry. Results highlight the erosional state of the majority of the study sites, with a trend towards more vulnerable habitat in the northern FRT, especially in the Southeast Florida region (- 0.51 kg CaCO3 m-2 year-1), which is in close proximity to urban centers. Detailed comparison of reef types reveals that mid-channel reefs in the Florida Keys have the highest net carbonate production (0.84 kg CaCO3 m-2 year-1) and indicates that these reefs may be hold-outs for reef development throughout the region. This study reports that Florida reefs, specifically their physical structure, are in a net erosional state. As these reefs lose structure, the ecosystem services they provide will be diminished, signifying the importance of increased protections and management efforts to offset these trends.

Scale dependence of coral reef oases and their environmental correlates.

Identifying relatively intact areas within ecosystems and determining the conditions favoring their existence is necessary for effective management in the context of widespread environmental degradation. In this study, we used 3766 surveys of randomly selected sites in the United States and U.S. Territories to identify the correlates of sites categorized as "oases" (defined as sites with relatively high total coral cover). We used occupancy models to evaluate the influence of 10 environmental predictors on the probability that an area (21.2-km2 cell) would harbor coral oases defined at four spatial extents: cross-basin, basin, region, and subregion. Across all four spatial extents, oases were more likely to occur in habitats with high light attenuation. The influence of the other environmental predictors on the probability of oasis occurrence were less consistent and varied with the scale of observation. Oases were most likely in areas of low human population density, but this effect was evident only at the cross-basin and subregional extents. At the regional and subregional extents oases were more likely where sea-surface temperature was more variable, whereas at the larger spatial extents the opposite was true. By identifying the correlates of oasis occurrence, the model can inform the prioritization of reef areas for management. Areas with biophysical conditions that confer corals with physiological resilience, as well as limited human impacts, likely support coral reef oases across spatial extents. Our approach is widely applicable to the development of conservation strategies to protect biodiversity and ecosystems in an era of magnified human disturbance.