RESUMO
Background: Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is essential for the minimally invasive management of biliary and pancreatic disorders. Under certain indications, performing ERCP without delay during the weekend can be important for improving outcomes. Objectives: To compare the outcomes of ERCP performed on weekends and holidays with those of regular weekday ERCPs. Design: Propensity score match analysis of the data from the Hungarian ERCP Registry. Methods: A total of 116 ERCPs were performed during weekends or holidays, and 3144 during weekday working hours. The analyses were performed on 1:2 propensity-matched groups (116 weekend and 232 weekday cases). Results: Weekend ERCPs were mostly performed for acute cholangitis and acute biliary pancreatitis (70% of cases), whereas in the weekday group, only 32% of cases were performed for these indications. No significant difference was found between weekday and weekend ERCPs in terms of the rates of successful (91.38% vs 93.1%, p = 0.565) and difficult (33.62% vs 36.64%, p = 0.511) biliary cannulations. We found no significant differences in the number of adverse events (bleeding, post-ERCP pancreatitis, and 30-day mortality) in ERCPs performed during weekends or weekdays. Moreover, no significant differences in the aforementioned outcomes were detected between the propensity-matched groups. Conclusion: In this propensity-matched study, no significant differences were found in the outcomes of weekend and weekday ERCPs.
RESUMO
Long-term data on ustekinumab in real-life Crohn's disease patients are still missing, though randomized controlled trials demonstrated it as a favorable therapeutic option. We aimed to evaluate ustekinumab's clinical efficacy, drug sustainability, and safety in a prospective, nationwide, multicenter Crohn's disease patient cohort with a three-year follow-up. Crohn's disease patients on ustekinumab treatment were consecutively enrolled from 9 Hungarian Inflammatory Bowel Disease centers between January 2019 and May 2020. Patient and disease characteristics, treatment history, clinical disease activity (Harvey Bradshaw Index (HBI)), biomarkers, and endoscopic activity (Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease (SES-CD)) were collected for three-years' time. A total of 148 patients were included with an overall 48.9% of complex behavior of the Crohn's disease and 97.2% of previous anti-TNF exposure. The pre-induction remission rates were 12.2% (HBI), and 5.1% (SES-CD). Clinical remission rates (HBI) were 52.2%, 55.6%, and 50.9%, whereas criteria of an endoscopic remission were fulfilled in 14.3%, 27.5%, and 35.3% of the subjects at the end of the first, second, and third year, respectively. Dose intensification was high with 84.0% of the patients on an 8-weekly and 29.9% on a 4-weekly regimen at the end of year 3. Drug sustainability was 76.9% during the follow-up period with no serious adverse events observed. Ustekinumab in the long-term is an effective, sustainable, and safe therapeutic option for Crohn's disease patients with severe disease phenotype and high previous anti-TNF biological failure, requiring frequent dose intensifications.
Assuntos
Doença de Crohn , Ustekinumab , Humanos , Doença de Crohn/tratamento farmacológico , Ustekinumab/uso terapêutico , Ustekinumab/efeitos adversos , Masculino , Feminino , Adulto , Resultado do Tratamento , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Prospectivos , Seguimentos , Indução de Remissão , HungriaRESUMO
Concomitant medications may alter the effect of biological therapy in inflammatory bowel disease. The aim was to investigate the effect of proton pump inhibitors on remission rates in patients with inflammatory bowel disease treated with the gut-selective vedolizumab. Patients from the Hungarian nationwide, multicenter vedolizumab cohort were selected for post hoc analysis. Primary outcomes were the assessment of clinical response and endoscopic and clinical remission at weeks 14 and 54. Secondary outcomes were the evaluation of the combined effect of concomitant steroid therapy and other factors, such as smoking, on remission. A total of 108 patients were identified with proton pump inhibitor data from 240 patients in the original cohort. Patients on steroids without proton pump inhibitors were more likely to have a clinical response at week 14 than patients on concomitant PPI (95% vs. 67%, p = 0.005). Non-smokers with IBD treated with VDZ were more likely to develop a clinical response at week 14 than smokers, particularly those not receiving PPI compared with patients on co-administered PPI therapy (81% vs. 53%, p = 0.041, and 92% vs. 74%, p = 0.029, respectively). We found that the use of PPIs in patients treated with VDZ may impair the achievement of response in certain subgroups. Unnecessary PPI prescriptions should be avoided.
RESUMO
There are several overlapping clinical practice guidelines in acute pancreatitis (AP), however, none of them contains suggestions on patient discharge. The Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group (HPSG) has recently developed a laboratory data and symptom-based discharge protocol which needs to be validated. (1) A survey was conducted involving all members of the International Association of Pancreatology (IAP) to understand the characteristics of international discharge protocols. (2) We investigated the safety and effectiveness of the HPSG-discharge protocol. According to our international survey, 87.5% (49/56) of the centres had no discharge protocol. Patients discharged based on protocols have a significantly shorter median length of hospitalization (LOH) (7 (5;10) days vs. 8 (5;12) days) p < 0.001), and a lower rate of readmission due to recurrent AP episodes (p = 0.005). There was no difference in median discharge CRP level among the international cohorts (p = 0.586). HPSG-protocol resulted in the shortest LOH (6 (5;9) days) and highest median CRP (35.40 (13.78; 68.40) mg/l). Safety was confirmed by the low rate of readmittance (n = 35; 5%). Discharge protocol is necessary in AP. The discharge protocol used in this study is the first clinically proven protocol. Developing and testifying further protocols are needed to better standardize patients' care.
Assuntos
Pancreatite , Alta do Paciente , Humanos , Pancreatite/terapia , Doença Aguda , Hospitalização , Estudos de CoortesRESUMO
BACKGROUND: There is a noteworthy overlap between the clinical picture of biliary acute pancreatitis (AP) and the 2018 Tokyo guidelines currently used for the diagnosis of cholangitis (AC) and cholecystitis (CC). This can lead to significant antibiotic and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) overuse. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the on-admission prevalence of AC/CC according to the 2018 Tokyo guidelines (TG18) in a cohort of biliary AP patients, and its association with antibiotic use, ERCP and clinically relevant endpoints. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group's prospective multicenter registry of 2195 AP cases. We grouped and compared biliary cases (n = 944) based on the on-admission fulfillment of definite AC/CC according to TG18. Aside from antibiotic use, we evaluated mortality, AC/CC/AP severity, ERCP performance and length of hospitalization. We also conducted a literature review discussing each criteria of the TG18 in the context of AP. RESULTS: 27.8% of biliary AP cases fulfilled TG18 for both AC and CC, 22.5% for CC only and 20.8% for AC only. Antibiotic use was high (77.4%). About 2/3 of the AC/CC cases were mild, around 10% severe. Mortality was below 1% in mild and moderate AC/CC patients, but considerably higher in severe cases (12.8% and 21.2% in AC and CC). ERCP was performed in 89.3% of AC cases, common bile duct stones were found in 41.1%. CONCLUSION: Around 70% of biliary AP patients fulfilled the TG18 for AC/CC, associated with a high rate of antibiotic use. Mortality in presumed mild or moderate AC/CC is low. Each of the laboratory and clinical criteria are commonly fulfilled in biliary AP, single imaging findings are also unspecific-AP specific diagnostic criteria are needed, as the prevalence of AC/CC are likely greatly overestimated. Randomized trials testing antibiotic use are also warranted.
Assuntos
Pancreatite , Humanos , Doença Aguda , Antibacterianos/efeitos adversos , Pancreatite/diagnóstico , Pancreatite/epidemiologia , Pancreatite/etiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Tóquio/epidemiologia , Guias como AssuntoRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The in-hospital survival of patients suffering from acute pancreatitis (AP) is 95% to 98%. However, there is growing evidence that patients discharged after AP may be at risk of serious morbidity and mortality. Here, we aimed to investigate the risk, causes, and predictors of the most severe consequence of the post-AP period: mortality. METHODS: A total of 2613 well-characterized patients from 25 centers were included and followed by the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group between 2012 and 2021. A general and a hospital-based population was used as the control group. RESULTS: After an AP episode, patients have an approximately threefold higher incidence rate of mortality than the general population (0.0404 vs 0.0130 person-years). First-year mortality after discharge was almost double than in-hospital mortality (5.5% vs 3.5%), with 3.0% occurring in the first 90-day period. Age, comorbidities, and severity were the most significant independent risk factors for death following AP. Furthermore, multivariate analysis identified creatinine, glucose, and pleural fluid on admission as independent risk factors associated with post-discharge mortality. In the first 90-day period, cardiac failure and AP-related sepsis were among the main causes of death following discharge, and cancer-related cachexia and non-AP-related infection were the key causes in the later phase. CONCLUSION: Almost as many patients in our cohort died in the first 90-day period after discharge as during their hospital stay. Evaluation of cardiovascular status, follow-up of local complications, and cachexia-preventing oncological care should be an essential part of post-AP patient care. Future study protocols in AP must include at least a 90-day follow-up period after discharge.
Assuntos
Pancreatite , Humanos , Pancreatite/epidemiologia , Alta do Paciente , Doença Aguda , Assistência ao Convalescente , Caquexia , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
In developed countries, diseases of the gallbladder and the biliary tract count as some of the most frequent gastrointestinal disorders. The inflammation of the gallbladder/biliary tree is a potentially severe, even lethal condition that requires rapid diagnosis and early multidisciplinary approach to be treated. Although the frequency of these diseases is high, the treatment is not unified in Hungary yet. The aim of the evidence-based recommendation is to clarify the diagnostic criteria and severity grading of these diseases and to highlight the indications and rules of proper application of the numerous available therapeutic interventions. The recent guideline is based on the consensus of the Board members of the Endoscopic Section of the Hungarian Gastroenterology Society in contribution with renown experts of surgery, infectology as well as interventional radiology and it counts as a clear and easy applicable guide during the all-day healthcare practice. Our guidelines are based on Tokyo guidelines established on the basis of the consensus reached in the International Consensus Meeting held in Tokyo which were revised in 2013 (TG13) and in 2018 (TG18). Orv Hetil. 2023; 164(20): 770-787.
Assuntos
Colangite , Colecistite Aguda , Colecistite , Humanos , Colecistite Aguda/diagnóstico , Colecistite Aguda/terapia , Doença Aguda , Colangite/diagnóstico , Colangite/terapia , TóquioRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Few data are available on subjective disease control and perception of adverse events (AEs) during switching from original anti-TNF agents to biosimilars. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Hungarian patients with inflammatory bowel disease were interviewed after a mandatory non-medical switch from an infliximab (IFX) originator to a biosimilar GP1111 or from an adalimumab (ADA) originator to a biosimilar GP2017. Drug choice was based on patient's and physician's decision. Subjective efficacy was measured using a 10-point scale, and AEs were assessed. Difference in efficacy before and after the switch was compared within and between the drugs. RESULTS: Seventy-three ADA and 106 IFX switching patients were interviewed. Subjective efficacy of IFX biosimilar was rated lower compared to IFX originator (8.72 ± 1.68 vs. 7.77 ± 2.34; p = 0.001). The ADA biosimilar was rated higher than its originator (9.02 ± 1.61 vs. 8.42 ± 1.93; p = 0.017). Patients receiving ADA biosimilar were more satisfied with the new treatment compared to IFX (p = 0.032). The incidence of new AEs was 85% in the ADA and 55% in the IFX group (1.79 vs. 0.93 AEs per patient, respectively, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Subjective efficacy of switching to a biosimilar was proven in case of ADA, while reduced efficacy was experienced with IFX biosimilar. Perception of AEs was high and varied between biosimilars.
Assuntos
Medicamentos Biossimilares , Doenças Inflamatórias Intestinais , Humanos , Infliximab/efeitos adversos , Medicamentos Biossimilares/efeitos adversos , Adalimumab/efeitos adversos , Autorrelato , Inibidores do Fator de Necrose Tumoral/uso terapêutico , Doenças Inflamatórias Intestinais/tratamento farmacológico , Resultado do Tratamento , Fármacos Gastrointestinais/efeitos adversosRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a proven risk factor for acute pancreatitis (AP). However, NAFLD has recently been redefined as metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). In this post hoc analysis, we quantified the effect of MAFLD on the outcomes of AP. METHODS: We identified our patients from the multicentric, prospective International Acute Pancreatitis Registry of the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group. Next, we compared AP patients with and without MAFLD and the individual components of MAFLD regarding in-hospital mortality and AP severity based on the revised Atlanta classification. Lastly, we calculated odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: MAFLD had a high prevalence in AP, 39% (801/2053). MAFLD increased the odds of moderate-to-severe AP (OR = 1.43, CI: 1.09-1.89). However, the odds of in-hospital mortality (OR = 0.89, CI: 0.42-1.89) and severe AP (OR = 1.70, CI: 0.97-3.01) were not higher in the MAFLD group. Out of the three diagnostic criteria of MAFLD, the highest odds of severe AP was in the group based on metabolic risk abnormalities (OR = 2.68, CI: 1.39-5.09). In addition, the presence of one, two, and three diagnostic criteria dose-dependently increased the odds of moderate-to-severe AP (OR = 1.23, CI: 0.88-1.70, OR = 1.38, CI: 0.93-2.04, and OR = 3.04, CI: 1.63-5.70, respectively) and severe AP (OR = 1.13, CI: 0.54-2.27, OR = 2.08, CI: 0.97-4.35, and OR = 4.76, CI: 1.50-15.4, respectively). Furthermore, in patients with alcohol abuse and aged ≥60 years, the effect of MAFLD became insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: MAFLD is associated with AP severity, which varies based on the components of its diagnostic criteria. Furthermore, MAFLD shows a dose-dependent effect on the outcomes of AP.
Assuntos
Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica , Pancreatite , Humanos , Pancreatite/diagnóstico , Pancreatite/epidemiologia , Pancreatite/etiologia , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/complicações , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/diagnóstico , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/epidemiologia , Doença Aguda , Estudos Prospectivos , Sistema de RegistrosRESUMO
Gastric cancer is the fifth most common cause of cancer related deaths worldwide. Despite advancement in endoscopic techniques, the majority of the cases are diagnosed at late stage, when the curative treatment options are very limited. The early gastric cancer (EGC) on the other side is potentially curable, and in selected cases endoscopic resection techniques offer similar survival rates then surgical resection. The detection of EGC is endoscopically challenging and requires high quality examination. Recent data show that close to 10% of the gastric cancer cases had a previous negative endoscopy. This highlights the urgent need to improve the quality of the endoscopy services, what can be achieved by increasing the awareness of gastroenterologists and continuously monitoring the key performance indicators of upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Newer endoscopic imaging techniques are also becoming commonly available to aid the detection of gastric premalignant lesions and EGC. High-definition endoscopy with image enhancement techniques is preferred over white light endoscopy to recognize these lesions, and they are also useful to determine the invasion depth of EGC. The endoscopic optical characterization of lesions is necessary for the selection of proper resection method and decide whether endoscopic resection techniques can be considered. Artificial intelligence systems aid the detection of EGC and can help to determine the depth of invasion. Endoscopic mucosal resection and endoscopic submucosal dissection requires centralized care and tertiary referral centers with appropriate expertise to ensure proper patient selection, high success rate and low adverse event rate. Appropriately scheduled endoscopic surveillance of high-risk patients, premalignant lesions and after resection of EGC is also important in the early detection and successful treatment of gastric cancer.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Endoscopic biliary stent placement is a minimally invasive intervention for patients with biliary strictures. Stent patency and function time are crucial factors. Suprapapillary versus transpapillary stent positioning may contribute to stent function time, so a meta-analysis was performed in this comparison. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was conducted in the CENTRAL, Embase, and MEDLINE databases to find data on suprapapillary stent placement compared to the transpapillary method via endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography in cases of biliary stenosis of any etiology and any stent type until December 2020. We carried out a meta-analysis focusing on the following outcomes: stent patency, stent migration, rate of cholangitis and pancreatitis, and other reported complications. RESULTS: Three prospective and ten retrospective studies involving 1028 patients were included. Suprapapillary stent placement appeared to be superior to transpapillary stent positioning in patency (weighted mean difference = 50.23 days, 95% CI: 8.56, 91.98; p = 0.0.018). In a subgroup analysis of malignant indications, suprapapillary positioning showed a lower rate of cholangitis (OR: 0.34, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.93; p = 0.036). Another subgroup analysis investigating metal stents in a suprapapillary position resulted in a lower rate of pancreatitis (OR: 0.16, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.95; p = 0.043) compared to transpapillary stent placement. There was no difference in stent migration rates between the two groups (OR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.17, 2.72; p = 0.577). CONCLUSIONS: Based on our results, suprapapillary biliary stenting has longer stent patency. Moreover, the stent migration rate did not differ between the suprapapillary and transpapillary groups.
RESUMO
Introduction: COVID19 significantly affects endoscopic labs' workflow. Endoscopic examinations are considered high-risk for virus transmission. Objectives: To determine impact of COVID19 pandemic on Hungarian endoscopic labs' workflow and on infection risk of endoscopic staff. Method: A nation-wide, cross-sectional online questionnaire was sent to heads of endoscopic labs in Hungary. The average number (with 95% confidence intervals) of upper and lower gastrointestinal endoscopies performed in 2020 was compared to that in 2019. The number of SARS-CoV-2-infected endoscopic staff members and the source of infection was also investigated. Results: Completion rate was 30% (33/111). Neither the number of upper (1.593 [7431.514] vs. 1.129 [1.0202.166], p = 0.053), nor that of lower gastrointestinal endoscopies (1.181 [8231.538] vs. 871 [5911.150], p = 0.072) decreased in 2020, but both upper and lower gastrointestinal endoscopies' number decreased by 80% during peak phases. Separate examination room was available in 12% of institutes. Appropriate quality personal protective equipment (PPE) was available during the first and second peak phase in 70% and 82%, respectively. Infection risk stratification by questionnaire and PCR testing was routinely performed in 85% and 42%, respectively. Employee number decreased by 33% and 26% for physicians, and by 19% and 21% for assistants during peak phases, mainly due to age restrictions and COVID care assignments. 32% of assistants and 41% of physicians were infected (associated with inappropriate PPE use in 16% and 18%, respectively). Conclusion: Peak phases' restrictions increase endoscopic workload afterwards. Despite PPE availability, 15% of employees' COVID infection resulted from inappropriate PPE use in pre-vaccination era.
Assuntos
COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , Pandemias , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Equipamento de Proteção IndividualRESUMO
Background: In pediatric acute pancreatitis (AP), a family history of pancreatic diseases is prognostic for earlier onset of recurrent AP (ARP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP). No evidence supports the same association in adult-onset pancreatitis. Age-specific reasons for familial aggregation are also unclear. We aimed to examine the prognostic role of pancreatic family history for ARP/CP and observe possible underlying mechanisms. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of the Hungarian Pancreatic Study Group's (HPSG) multicenter, international, prospective registry of patients with AP, both children and adults. We compared the positive family history and the negative family history of pancreatic diseases, in different age groups, and analyzed trends of accompanying factors. Chi-square and Fisher exact tests were used. Results: We found a higher rate of ARP/CP in the positive pancreatic family history group (33.7 vs. 25.9%, p = 0.018), peaking at 6-17 years. Idiopathic AP peaked in childhood in the positive family history group (75% 0-5 years) and was consistently 20-35% in the negative group. A higher rate of alcohol consumption/smoking was found in the positive groups at 12-17 years (62.5 vs. 15.8%, p = 0.013) and 18-29 years (90.9 vs. 58.1%, p = 0.049). The prevalence of diabetes and hyperlipidemia steadily rose with age in both groups. Conclusion: Positive family history most likely signifies genetic background in early childhood. During adolescence and early adulthood, alcohol consumption and smoking emerge-clinicians should be aware and turn to intervention in such cases. Contrary to current viewpoints, positive pancreatic family history is not a prognostic factor for ARP and CP in adults, so it should not be regarded that way.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Decades of debate surround the use of intraoperative cholangiography (IOC) during cholecystectomy. To the present day, the role of IOC is controversial as regards decreasing the rate of bile duct injury (BDI). We aimed to review and analyse the available literature on the benefits of IOC during cholecystectomy. METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed until 19 October 2020 in five databases using the following search keys: cholangiogra* and cholecystectomy. The primary outcomes were BDI and retained stone rate. To investigate the differences between the groups (routine IOC vs selective IOC and IOC vs no IOC), we calculated weighted mean differences (WMD) for continuous outcomes and relative risks (RR) for dichotomous outcomes, with 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Of the 19,863 articles, 38 were selected and 32 were included in the quantitative synthesis. Routine IOC showed no superiority compared to selective IOC in decreasing BDI (RR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.66; 1.24). Comparing IOC and no IOC, no statistically significant differences were found in the case of BDI, retained stone rate, readmission rate, and length of hospital stay. We found an increased risk of conversion rate to open surgery in the no IOC group (RR = 0.64, CI 0.51; 0.78). The operation time was significantly longer in the IOC group compared to the no IOC group (WMD = 11.25 min, 95% CI 6.57; 15.93). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that IOC may not be indicated in every case, however, the evidence is very uncertain. Further good quality research is required to address this question.
Assuntos
Doenças dos Ductos Biliares , Colecistectomia Laparoscópica , Doenças dos Ductos Biliares/cirurgia , Colangiografia , Colecistectomia , Colecistectomia Laparoscópica/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Cuidados Intraoperatórios , Tempo de InternaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a potentially severe or even fatal inflammation of the pancreas. Early identification of patients at high risk for developing a severe course of the disease is crucial for preventing organ failure and death. Most of the former predictive scores require many parameters or at least 24 h to predict the severity; therefore, the early therapeutic window is often missed. METHODS: The early achievable severity index (EASY) is a multicentre, multinational, prospective and observational study (ISRCTN10525246). The predictions were made using machine learning models. We used the scikit-learn, xgboost and catboost Python packages for modelling. We evaluated our models using fourfold cross-validation, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the ROC curve (AUC), and accuracy metrics were calculated on the union of the test sets of the cross-validation. The most critical factors and their contribution to the prediction were identified using a modern tool of explainable artificial intelligence called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). RESULTS: The prediction model was based on an international cohort of 1184 patients and a validation cohort of 3543 patients. The best performing model was an XGBoost classifier with an average AUC score of 0.81 ± 0.033 and an accuracy of 89.1%, and the model improved with experience. The six most influential features were the respiratory rate, body temperature, abdominal muscular reflex, gender, age and glucose level. Using the XGBoost machine learning algorithm for prediction, the SHAP values for the explanation and the bootstrapping method to estimate confidence, we developed a free and easy-to-use web application in the Streamlit Python-based framework (http://easy-app.org/). CONCLUSIONS: The EASY prediction score is a practical tool for identifying patients at high risk for severe AP within hours of hospital admission. The web application is available for clinicians and contributes to the improvement of the model.
Assuntos
Inteligência Artificial , Pancreatite , Doença Aguda , Humanos , Pancreatite/diagnóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
Pancreatic necrosis is a consistent prognostic factor in acute pancreatitis (AP). However, the clinical scores currently in use are either too complicated or require data that are unavailable on admission or lack sufficient predictive value. We therefore aimed to develop a tool to aid in necrosis prediction. The XGBoost machine learning algorithm processed data from 2387 patients with AP. The confidence of the model was estimated by a bootstrapping method and interpreted via the 10th and the 90th percentiles of the prediction scores. Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values were calculated to quantify the contribution of each variable provided. Finally, the model was implemented as an online application using the Streamlit Python-based framework. The XGBoost classifier provided an AUC value of 0.757. Glucose, C-reactive protein, alkaline phosphatase, gender and total white blood cell count have the most impact on prediction based on the SHAP values. The relationship between the size of the training dataset and model performance shows that prediction performance can be improved. This study combines necrosis prediction and artificial intelligence. The predictive potential of this model is comparable to the current clinical scoring systems and has several advantages over them.
Assuntos
Inteligência Artificial , Pancreatite Necrosante Aguda , Doença Aguda , Humanos , Necrose , Pancreatite Necrosante Aguda/diagnóstico , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
Although excessive alcohol consumption is by far the most frequent cause of recurrent acute pancreatitis (AP) cases, specific therapy is still not well established to prevent recurrence. Generally, psychological therapy (e.g., brief intervention (BI)) is the cornerstone of cessation programs; however, it is not yet widely used in everyday practice. We conducted a post-hoc analysis of a prospectively collected database. Patients suffering from alcohol-induced AP between 2016 and 2021 received 30 min BI by a physician. Patient-reported alcohol consumption, serum gamma-glutamyl-transferase (GGT) level, and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) of red blood cells were collected on admission and at the 1-month follow-up visit to monitor patients' drinking habits. Ninety-nine patients with alcohol-induced AP were enrolled in the study (mean age: 50 ± 11, 89% male). A significant decrease was detected both in mean GGT value (294 ± 251 U/L vs. 103 ± 113 U/L, p < 0.001) and in MCV level (93.7 ± 5.3 U/L vs. 92.1 ± 5.1 U/L, p < 0.001) in patients with elevated on-admission GGT levels. Notably, 79% of the patients (78/99) reported alcohol abstinence at the 1-month control visit. Brief intervention is an effective tool to reduce alcohol consumption and to prevent recurrent AP. Longitudinal randomized clinical studies are needed to identify the adequate structure and frequency of BIs in alcohol-induced AP.
Assuntos
Alcoolismo , Pancreatite , Doença Aguda , Adulto , Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas/efeitos adversos , Alcoolismo/complicações , Feminino , Hospitais , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pancreatite/etiologia , Pancreatite/prevenção & controle , Educação de Pacientes como Assunto , gama-GlutamiltransferaseRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Noninvasive ventilation (NIV) is beneficial in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but its effectiveness in pneumonia-associated respiratory failure is still controversial. In the current meta-analysis, we aimed to investigate whether the use of NIV before intubation in pneumonia improves the mortality and intubation rates of respiratory failure as compared to no use of NIV in adults. METHODS: We searched three databases from inception to December 2019. We included studies, in which pneumonia patients were randomized initially into either NIV-treated or non-NIV-treated groups. Five full-text publications, including 121 patients, reported eligible data for statistical analysis. RESULTS: With NIV the overall hospital mortality rate seemed lower in patients with pneumonia-associated respiratory failure, but this was not significant [odds ratio (OR) = 0.39; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13-1.14; P = 0.085]. In the intensive care unit, the mortality was significantly lower when NIV was applied compared to no NIV treatment (OR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.07-0.75; P = 0.015). NIV also decreased mortality compared to no NIV in patient groups, which did not exclude patients with COPD (OR = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.08-0.74; P = 0.013). The need for intubation was significantly reduced in NIV-treated patients (OR = 0.22; 95% CI: 0.09-0.53; P = 0.001), which effect was more prominent in pneumonia patient groups not excluding patients with pre-existing COPD (OR = 0.13; 95% CI: 0.03-0.46; P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: NIV markedly decreases the death rate in the intensive care unit and reduces the need for intubation in patients with pneumonia-associated respiratory failure. The beneficial effects of NIV seem more pronounced in populations that include patients with COPD. Our findings suggest that NIV should be considered in the therapeutic guidelines of pneumonia, given that future clinical trials confirm the results of our meta-analysis. AVAILABILITY OF DATA AND MATERIALS: All data and materials generated during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.