Do trials reduce uncertainty? Assessing impact through cumulative meta-analysis of neonatal RCTs.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of the latest randomized controlled trial (RCT) to each systematic review (SR) in Cochrane Neonatal Reviews. STUDY DESIGN: We selected meta-analyses reporting the typical point estimate of the risk ratio for the primary outcome of the latest study (n=130), mortality (n=128) and the mean difference for the primary outcome (n=44). We employed cumulative meta-analysis to determine the typical estimate after each trial was added, and then performed multivariable logistic regression to determine factors predictive of study impact. RESULTS: For the stated primary outcome, 18% of latest RCTs failed to narrow the confidence interval (CI), and 55% failed to decrease the CI by ⩾20%. Only 8% changed the typical estimate directionality, and 11% caused a change to or from significance. Latest RCTs did not change the typical estimate in 18% of cases, and only 41% changed the typical estimate by at least 10%. The ability to narrow the CI by >20% was negatively associated with the number of previously published RCTs (odds ratio 0.707). Similar results were found in analysis of typical estimates for the outcomes of mortality and mean difference. CONCLUSION: Across a broad range of clinical questions, the latest RCT failed to substantially narrow the CI of the typical estimate, to move the effect estimate or to change its statistical significance in a majority of cases. Investigators and grant peer review committees should consider prioritizing less-studied topics or requiring formal consideration of optimal information size based on extant evidence in power calculations.

A randomized trial of maintenance interferon following high-dose chemotherapy in multiple myeloma: long-term follow-up results.

High-dose chemotherapy (melphalan) with autologous marrow stem cell support (AMSCS) results in high response rates in multiple myeloma (MM), with up to 50% of patients achieving complete remission. However, these remissions are generally not durable. As the cytokine interferon alpha has been shown to prolong partial response following conventional chemotherapy, this trial was conducted to evaluate its role following high-dose chemotherapy. 85 patients were randomly assigned to maintenance treatment with interferon alpha, 3 x 10(6) units/m2 subcutaneously three times weekly until relapse or no further treatment following recovery from high-dose chemotherapy (melphalan 140-200 mg/m2 or busulphan 16 mg/kg) combined with AMSCS. At 5.8 years following the accrual of the last patient in this trial, 38 patients had died, 17 in the interferon arm and 21 in the control arm. The median progression-free survival (PFS) in the 42 patients randomized to interferon alpha was 46 months versus 27 months in the controls. Both overall survival and PFS, which were highly significant at median follow-up of 52 months, have now ceased to be significant, because most patients have ultimately succumbed to their disease. Interferon was tolerated by the majority of patients with very good compliance. Toxicity consisted mainly of flu-like symptoms and malaise which were usually self-limiting. The results of such a pilot study should be carefully interpreted and the benefits of interferon should be confirmed in larger multicentre studies in the setting of minimal residual disease following autologous transplantation.

Establishing ambulatory chemotherapy at home.

The use of infusional ambulatory chemotherapy is increasing. Careful patient selection and a structured programme of teaching and home support is required. Continuous ambulatory chemotherapy can improve clinical outcomes and provide both psychological and financial benefits.

Outcome assessment of a population-based group of 195 unselected myeloma patients under 70 years of age offered intensive treatment.

A single centre series of 195 consecutive newly diagnosed untreated myeloma patients under 70 years, seen between September 1986 and March 1994, were analysed to assess the impact of current intensive treatment methods upon remission rate, response rate and subsequent outcome. They were predominantly an unselected population based group of patients (other than by age) that could be used by purchasers of health care as a model for outcome assessment. All patients were scheduled to receive a care plan which included a sequential package of treatment consisting initially of courses of infusional chemotherapy using vincristine, adriamycin and methyl prednisolone (VAMP) and 90 of these also received cyclophosphamide (C-VAMP). Thirty-eight patients received verapamil in addition to C-VAMP(V-C-VAMP). After VAMP all patients were planned to receive high-dose treatment with melphalan and an autograft (marrow or blood) and 112 received this treatment; a further 29 patients received modified high-dose treatment with melphalan alone (23) or busulfan (6) and 54 (28%) did not proceed to high-dose treatment because of refusal, resistant disease, poor performance or treatment-related death. The patients who received melphalan or busulfan alone instead of high-dose melphalan/autografts did so because of increasing age (P = 0.001) and a raised creatinine (P = 0.05). The complete remission rate was 53% for the whole group and 74% for those receiving high-dose melphalan and an autograft. From July 1988, the sequential therapy package included continuous three times weekly interferon (IFN) after high-dose treatment as maintenance therapy, initially as part of a controlled randomised trial and then for all suitable patients. Fifty-seven patients received IFN. The median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) from first treatment for the whole group of 195 patients is 4.5 years and 25 months, respectively. The 112 patients receiving the melphalan autografts fared significantly better than the rest of the patients with OS and PFS (from high-dose treatment) of 6.6 years and 27 months, respectively (P < 0.005), and the 57 patients also receiving IFN have a OS yet to reach a median at 8 years and a PFS of 44 months, significantly better than non IFN high-dose patients (P < 0.0036). However, although we showed benefit for selected patients in studies and trials (particularly with IFN) during the 8-year period of the series, this did not translate into overall PFS benefit in our study for unselected cohorts of patients for 1986-1988 (64 patients) 1989-1992 (100 patients) and 1992-1994 (34 patients) in spite of progressive increases in the proportion of patients receiving IFN (respectively 6, 35 and 58%). This is likely to be due to the dilution of benefit to specific patients by the overall number of patients involved. Outcome data from unselected patients are now expected by purchasers and presented in this way, help qualify the activity impact of advances made from research trials for the treatment of population-based cancer problems.

A comparison of vincristine and doxorubicin infusional chemotherapy with methylprednisolone (VAMP) with the addition of weekly cyclophosphamide (C-VAMP) as induction treatment followed by autografting in previously untreated myeloma.

In a sequential nonrandomized study, 204 consecutive unselected patients aged < 70 years received induction chemotherapy with infusional vincristine and adriamycin with oral methyl prednisolone (VAMP: n = 75) or with additional cyclophosphamide, C-VAMP (n = 129). 38/129 C-VAMP patients also received verapamil during induction as part of a controlled trial with the aim to overcome drug resistance. A median of five courses (range 1-11) of chemotherapy were required before maximal response was attained and this was similar in both groups. An over-all response rate of 71% was noted at the end of induction. The complete remission (CR) rate with C-VAMP was 24%, which was significantly higher (P = 0.04) than the CR rate with VAMP alone (8%). The addition of verapamil did not alter the response rate of C-VAMP. Compliance to VAMP was overall 83% and not affected by the addition of cyclophosphamide. The proportion of patients going on to receive high-dose chemotherapy and an autograft was the same for VAMP and C-VAMP treated patients (71%). The median overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) for the whole group were 4.4 years and 2.0 years and no difference in outcome was observed between the different treatment groups. Therefore the addition of weekly cyclophosphamide to VAMP induction therapy has significantly improved the response rates of previously untreated myeloma patients. C-VAMP was not more toxic and did not compromise the chances of receiving an autograft. Verapamil was without influence on any parameters in this study.

High-dose chemotherapy and autologous bone marrow transplant in relapsed Hodgkin's disease--a pragmatic prognostic index.

High-dose chemotherapy with autologous bone marrow transplantation is used in the treatment of relapsed or high-risk Hodgkin's disease. As prospective randomised studies have proved difficult to accrue to, current recommendations are based on the reports of large series of prospectively collected data. We have looked at the outcome of 89 patients treated in this way at a single institution and have developed an index to predict outcome. Of 89 patients, with a median age of 29 years (range 15-51 years), eight patients were in first complete remission/partial remission (CR/PR), 17 in second or later CR, 37 were responding relapses, 13 resistant relapses, 11 primary refractory and three untested relapses. Combinations of melphalan, BCNU and etoposide were given in all cases except in ten patients who received melphalan alone. The median follow-up was 43 months (range 6-77 months). A total of 24 patients were in CR at the time of autologous bone marrow transplantation (ABMT), 33 achieved CR with ABMT, 16 PR, to give a response rate to ABMT of 49/65 = 74% (95% CI 60-83%) with a CR rate of 51% (CI 36-62%). In a Cox's multivariate analysis the most important factors in predicting outcome after ABMT were response to treatment before entry, number of previous treatments and previous chemosensitivity. Using these factors we devised a prognostic index which reliably selects a group of patients (65%) with at least a 70% chance of being progression free from 1 year onwards. Patients who have never achieved a CR and have received three or more chemotherapy regimens do not benefit from high-dose chemotherapy as used in this study.

Comparison of interferon tolerance after autologous bone marrow or peripheral blood stem cell transplants for myeloma patients who have responded to induction therapy.

Interferon (INF) has been incorporated as part of maintenance therapy after high dose treatment in order to make remissions more durable. In this study we have compared peripheral blood stem cell transplant (PBSCT) versus autologous bone marrow transplant (ABMT) with respect to INF tolerance. Thirty nine PBSCT patients have been compared to 37 ABMT patients for INF tolerance. This is followed by a comparison of 15 PBSCT patients versus 21 ABMT patients for engraftment details, response and survival. INF was started at a median of 61 days in the PBSCT and 58 days in the ABMT patients (P = NS). It was well tolerated in both groups without a significant difference in toxicity in the two arms. Engraftment was more rapid in the PBSCT patients with platelet recovery being significantly faster. Response and survival showed a favourable trend for ABMT patients though statistical significance was not reached and the cost of PBSCT was 12% cheaper. We were thus able to conclude that PBSCT grafts were as durable and could tolerate INF just as well as ABMT. Engraftment was more rapid and the procedure of PBSCT was also cheaper. Further studies with a larger group of patients will be required before comments on the efficacy of treatment can be made.

Kinetics of paraprotein clearance after autografting for multiple myeloma.

The kinetics of paraprotein clearance after autografting for multiple myeloma have not been described. We studied 33 myeloma patients in plateau phase with detectable paraprotein (3-34 milligrams, median 10 milligrams) at the time of ABMT who received melphalan (200 mg/m2) and methylprednisolone (1.5 g x 5) for conditioning. Fifteen patients received interferon-alpha post-transplant as part of a randomized study. Twenty-four of 33 (72.7%) patients eventually cleared the paraprotein at a median of 47 days (range 5-783) post-transplant. The probability of clearance was lower (46.7 vs 94.4%, P = 0.004) and the time taken to clear paraprotein longer (142 vs 29 days, P = 0.003) in patients with a higher level (> 10 milligrams) at the time of the transplant. However, clearance occurred within 6 months in 23 of 24 (95.8%) patients who ultimately cleared the paraprotein. Interferon-alpha did not influence the clearance of paraprotein. We conclude that after autografting for myeloma, the time taken to clear paraprotein is longer and the probability of clearance lower with higher levels at the time of ABMT, and most patients who eventually clear the paraprotein do so within 6 months. Because the probability of clearing paraprotein (and thus attaining remission) in patients with detectable paraprotein 6 months post-transplant is low, a decision about further treatment may be made at this point.

Maintenance therapy for remission in myeloma with Intron A following high-dose melphalan and either an autologous bone marrow transplantation or peripheral stem cell rescue.

Eighty-four patients with myeloma were randomized to receive maintenance Intron A (Schering-Plough, Suffolk, UK), 3 mega units/m2 s.c. three times weekly or no treatment following induction therapy with cyclophosphomide, vincristine, doxorubicin, methyl prednisolone (C-VAMP), consolidated with high-dose melphalan (HDM) 200 mg/m2 + autologous bone marrow transplantation (ABMT). The patients have been followed up for a median of 52 months. Overall, median progression-free survival (PFS) from HDM was 27 months in the control group and 46 months in the Intron A group (< 0.025). For the 65 patients who achieved complete remission (CR) with HDM, there was a significant prolongation of remission (p = 0.02) for those who received Intron A and 49% of these patients remained in remission four years after high-dose treatment. However, for partial responders (PR) and nonresponders to HDM there was no significant prolongation of PFS. Overall, survival was also significantly better for the Intron A group, with 5 deaths versus 14 deaths in the control group (p = 0.006). Subsequently, 54 consecutive patients received the same HDM followed by rescue with peripheral blood stem cells after induction chemotherapy which included C-VAMP. Intron A was started in 45 of these patients at a median of 62 days which was comparable to the ABMT arm. The overall response rate in these patients was 79.62% (43/54-CR+PR) and the probability of survival at 18 months was 74.2% by the Kaplan Meier method.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

High-dose melphalan and autologous bone marrow transplantation as consolidation in previously untreated myeloma.

PURPOSE: We report the results of intensive chemotherapy with high-dose melphalan (HDM) following conventional-dose cytoreductive chemotherapy in previously untreated patients with myeloma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: From 1986 to 1991, 53 previously untreated patients with myeloma received HDM 200 mg/m2 plus methylprednisolone 1.5 g daily (MP) for 5 days with autologous bone marrow transplantation (ABMT) after cytoreductive chemotherapy. RESULTS: At the time of HDM administration, responses to induction therapy were complete remission (CR) in nine patients, partial remission (PR) in 38, and no response (NR) in six. Following HDM, all but one patient responded, with 40 patients achieving a CR (75%). There was one treatment-related death following HDM. The median time to reach a WBC count more than 1,000/microL and platelet count more than 25,000/microL was 19 days (range, 13 to 30) and 24 days (range, 15 to 55), respectively. The median duration of response has not been reached at 20 months, and it is significantly longer for patients in CR than for those in PR (P < .025). Currently, with a median follow-up duration of 31 months (range, 6 to 58), 12 patients are dead and 40 are alive, and the estimated probability of survival at 54 months is 63%. Multivariate analysis found hemoglobin (Hb) more than 10 g/dL (P = .012), and stage A disease (P = .001) at diagnosis to be favorable indicators for survival. CONCLUSION: Myeloma patients who are able to receive HDM plus ABMT following conventional chemotherapy achieve a high proportion of CRs, which may be associated with prolonged survival.

High-dose melphalan for multiple myeloma: long-term follow-up data.

PURPOSE: To present long-term follow-up data of patients with myeloma treated with high-dose melphalan HDM, including an assessment of prognostic factors. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Between November 1981 and April 1986, 63 previously untreated patients with multiple myeloma received HDM 140 mg/m2 without autologous bone marrow transplantation. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 82% (51 of 62), with 32% (20 of 62) patients entering complete remission (CR). The median duration of response was 18 months, and six patients remain alive and free from disease progression at 60+ to 84+ months. Improvements in quality of life associated with remission were immediate in terms of pain grade (89% of patients) and performance status (92%), and later in terms of bone healing (29%). Currently, at a median follow-up duration of 74 months (range, 63 to 100) since HDM, 23 patients are alive with a median survival duration of 47 months, and 35% of patients are expected to be alive at 9 years. Apart from early-stage disease, no factors were found to predict long-term survival. No second malignancies or other late side effects have been recorded. CONCLUSION: Single-agent HDM without autologous bone marrow transplantation is a feasible therapeutic option in myeloma, and is associated with a high objective response rate, relatively long remission durations, and good symptom control.

Repeat administration of high dose melphalan in relapsed myeloma.

At a median time of 20 months following high dose melphalan for myeloma, 29 patients relapsed and were treated with induction chemotherapy to maximum response followed by a second course of high dose melphalan. The majority (90%) of patients received 200 mg m-2 with an autologous bone marrow transplant. Sixteen (55%) patients achieved complete remission and 11 (38%) a partial response. The median duration of remission was 17 (4-42) months. The median survival has not been reached, with 50% of patients alive at 58+ months after presentation. The period of neutropenia was similar during both first and second high dose procedures, but the duration of thrombocytopenia was longer in patients receiving melphalan for a second time (median 22 (16-56) days and 41 (18-69) days respectively). There was one treatment-related death due to thrombocytopenic haemorrhage. Repeated administration of high dose melphalan is a feasible approach for patients with relapsed myeloma.

Pharmacokinetics of high dose methylprednisolone and use in hematological malignancies.

The pharmacokinetics of oral and intravenous high dose methylprednisolone (Solu-medrone, Upjohn) were compared in patients with hematological malignancies. The aim of the study was to determine the oral bioavailability of high dose methylprednisolone and to establish whether this is a feasible and more convenient route of administration. The plasma pharmacokinetics were described by a one-compartment open model with peak plasma levels of 6.9 +/- 2.5 micrograms/ml. Total area under the plasma concentration versus time curve was similar by either route. Mean relative oral bioavailability was generally high (91 +/- 27 per cent). Retrospective analysis of 34 patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), non-Hodgkin's and Hodgkin's lymphoma treated with high dose methylprednisolone showed 11 responses including two complete remissions among nine patients with CLL. There was significant improvement in platelet counts in thrombocytopenic patients and treatment was well tolerated and toxicity was relatively low. High dose methylprednisolone may therefore be a useful palliative treatment for hematological malignancies, particularly where marrow suppression is a problem.

Application of a sensitive immunoassay to the study of DNA adducts formed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of patients undergoing high-dose melphalan therapy.

The levels of DNA adducts formed in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of 13 patients undergoing high-dose melphalan therapy were determined 0-24 h after drug administration using a modification of a previously described immunoassay. This assay was validated for DNA extracted from drug-treated cells. Adduct levels in normal mononuclear blood cells 1 h after drug administration correlated well (r = 0.846) with drug dose (expressed as mg/m2) and with area under the curve for plasma levels of melphalan during the first h (r = 0.842). 1 patient sustained a high degree of toxic side-effects from the melphalan treatment and showed a high level of adducts. Plasma cell leukaemia tumour cells from another patient showed a level of adducts approximately six times higher than those in the normal blood cells of the other patients. The levels of DNA adducts in normal peripheral blood mononuclear cells did not change markedly between 1 and 24 h after drug administration.

High-dose busulfan in patients with myeloma.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the use of high-dose busulfan (HDB) with autologous bone marrow transplantation (ABMT) in patients with myeloma. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Fifteen patients received HDB (16 mg/kg), eight of whom received high-dose melphalan (HDM) but had experienced a short remission or progression-free interval. Two patients had received HDM on two previous occasions, one had no response to low-dose melphalan, and four had impaired renal function (edathamil clearance < 40 mL/min). All patients received induction chemotherapy before HDB. RESULTS: Two patients were in complete remission (CR) after induction chemotherapy before HDB. Of the remaining 13 patients, four (31%) achieved CR and two (15%) achieved a partial remission for an overall response rate of 46%. There were three treatment-related deaths, but the toxicity was otherwise predictable and manageable. CONCLUSIONS: In heavily pretreated patients, HDB results in a relatively high response rate. It can also be used safely in patients with renal impairment who are not suitable for HDM.

High-dose chemotherapy and autologous bone marrow transplantation for relapsed and refractory Hodgkin's disease.

The results of high-dose chemotherapy with melphalan or melphalan (carmustine) etoposide for 66 consecutive patients with relapsed or resistant Hodgkin's disease are described. 55 patients were evaluable for response and 22% of these achieved complete remission and 59% partial remission. The actuarial survival at 2 years was 45% and the principal factors determining survival were the sensitivity of the disease to therapy given before high-dose chemotherapy and the type of treatment received. Intensive chemotherapy with autologous bone marrow transplantation can produce long-term survivors among patients for whom long-term survival would otherwise be improbable. However, this treatment remains toxic with an uncertain place in management.

A randomised phase II study of carmustine alone or in combination with tumour necrosis factor in patients with advanced melanoma.

Laboratory data suggest a synergistic interaction between carmustine (BCNU) and tumour necrosis factor (TNF) in melanoma. We therefore studied the activity of 200 mg/m2 BCNU given alone or in combination with 88 micrograms/m2 recombinant human TNF-alpha (rhTNF alpha) as a daily i.v. infusion for 5 days at 48-day intervals to patients with metastatic melanoma. In this randomised phase II trial, the rate of response to BCNU alone was 20% [95% confidence interval (CI), 2%-38%], and this was not improved by the addition of TNF (response rate, 10.5%; 95% CI, 1.3%-33%). Toxicity was higher in the combination arm, and there was no difference in survival.

Gut protection by cyclophosphamide "priming" in patients receiving high-dose melphalan--effect of drug scheduling.

A "priming" injection of cyclophosphamide (400 mg/m2 given i.v. on day -7) has been shown to reduce intestinal permeability and thus gut toxicity in patients receiving high-dose melphalan. To determine the optimal timing for this injection, patients receiving 200 mg/m2 melphalan with an autologous bone marrow transplant were randomly assigned to receive cyclophosphamide at 5, 7 or 9 days before the melphalan. The median percentage of [51Cr]-ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid excretion was similar (9.1% vs 7.1% vs 7.7%, respectively), with equivalent duration of WHO grade 2-4 mucositis and diarrhoea being recorded for each group. Thus, the timing of the cyclophosphamide prime is not critical, and the priming injection may be given between 5 and 9 days prior to high-dose melphalan.

Decrease in clonogenic tumour cells in bone marrow aspirates from multiple myeloma patients due to the incorporation of cyclophosphamide into treatment with vincristine, adriamycin and methyl prednisolone.

A study of 32 patients receiving cyclophosphamide (CY) and verapamil (VER) in addition to the drug combination vincristine, adriamycin and methyl prednisolone (VAMP) was made in which the clinical response and growth of clonogenic myeloma cells (MY-CFUc) from bone marrow aspirates were compared. At presentation, MY-CFUc were grown from 72 per cent (23/32) of the patients. After treatment with CY-VAMP or VERCY-VAMP, MY-CFUc were grown from 25 per cent (8/32) of patients of whom only 50 per cent responded clinically. The overall clinical response rate for patients receiving CY-VAMP and VERCY-VAMP was 64 per cent (9/14) and 72 per cent (13/18) respectively of whom 14 per cent in each group achieved complete remission. There was no concomitant increase in normal tissue toxicity as measured by granulocyte-macrophage colony (GM-CFUc) formation. Comparison of these data with our previous study of patients receiving VAMP alone, suggests that the addition of CY to the regimen may increase the tumour cell kill. Further clinical studies will determine whether there is a significant increase in the complete remission rate.