Predicting heart failure outcomes by integrating breath-by-breath measurements from cardiopulmonary exercise testing and clinical data through a deep learning survival neural network.

Aims: Mathematical models previously developed to predict outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) generally have limited performance and have yet to integrate complex data derived from cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET), including breath-by-breath data. We aimed to develop and validate a time-to-event prediction model using a deep learning framework using the DeepSurv algorithm to predict outcomes of HF. Methods and results: Inception cohort of 2490 adult patients with high-risk cardiac conditions or HF underwent CPET with breath-by-breath measurements. Potential predictive features included known clinical indicators, standard summary statistics from CPETs, and mathematical features extracted from the breath-by-breath time series of 13 measurements. The primary outcome was a composite of death, heart transplant, or mechanical circulatory support treated as a time-to-event outcomes. Predictive features ranked as most important included many of the features engineered from the breath-by-breath data in addition to traditional clinical risk factors. The prediction model showed excellent performance in predicting the composite outcome with an area under the curve of 0.93 in the training and 0.87 in the validation data sets. Both the predicted vs. actual freedom from the composite outcome and the calibration of the prediction model were excellent. Model performance remained stable in multiple subgroups of patients. Conclusion: Using a combined deep learning and survival algorithm, integrating breath-by-breath data from CPETs resulted in improved predictive accuracy for long-term (up to 10 years) outcomes in HF. DeepSurv opens the door for future prediction models that are both highly performing and can more fully use the large and complex quantity of data generated during the care of patients with HF.

N-Terminal Pro-Brain Type Natriuretic Peptide Predicts Cardiovascular Events Independently of Arterial Stiffness, Assessed By Carotid-to-Femoral Pulse Wave Velocity, in Apparently Healthy Subjects.

AIM: This study aimed to evaluate whether N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and carotid-to-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) carried independent prognostic value in predicting cardiovascular events in apparently healthy individuals beyond traditional risk factors. METHODS: A total of 1,872 participants aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years from the MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease (MONICA) study were included. Traditional risk factors were assessed, including: smoking status; mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure; body mass index; fasting plasma glucose; serum triglycerides; total, high-density, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol; NT-proBNP; and PWV. The principal endpoint that was assessed during 16 years of follow-up was a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The secondary endpoints were cardiovascular mortality (CVM), hospitalisation for coronary artery disease (CAD), and a composite of hospitalisation for heart failure (HF) or atrial fibrillation (AF). RESULTS: At baseline, NT-proBNP was associated with PWV (ß=0.14; p<0.001), but not after adjustment for traditional risk factors (ß=-0.01; p=0.67). In models including traditional risk factors and PWV, NT-proBNP was associated with all four outcomes (HRMACE=1.33, 95% CI 1.16-1.52; HRCVM=2.02, 95% CI 1.65-2.48; HRCAD=1.29, 95% CI 1.07-1.55; and HRHF or AF=1.79, 95% CI 1.40-2.28). In the same model, PWV was only associated with CVM (HRCVM=1.20, 95% CI 1.01-1.41). No interactions between NT-proBNP and PWV were found. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide significantly improved net reclassification (NRI) for MACE (NRI=0.12; p=0.03), CVM (NRI=0.33; p<0.001), and HF or AF (NRI=0.33; p<0.001) beyond traditional risk factors, while PWV did not aid in net reclassification improvement for any endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: In apparently healthy individuals, NT-proBNP and PWV predicted cardiovascular events independently. N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide improved reclassification for the prediction of MACE, CVM, and hospitalisation for HF or AF beyond traditional risk factors, while PWV did not.

Pulmonary Artery Catheter Usage and Impact on Mortality in Patients With Cardiogenic Shock: Results From a Canadian Single-Centre Registry.

BACKGROUND: Hemodynamic assessment for cardiogenic shock (CS) phenotyping in patients has led to renewed interest in the use of pulmonary artery catheters (PACs). METHODS: We included patients admitted with CS from January 2014 to December 2020 and compared clinical outcomes among patients who received PACs and those who did not. The primary outcome was the rate of in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included use of advanced heart failure therapies and coronary intensive care unit (CICU) and hospital lengths of stay. RESULTS: A total of 1043 patients were analysed and 47% received PACs. Patients selected for PAC-guided management were younger and had lower left ventricular function. They also had higher use of vasopressor and inotropes, and 15.2% of them were already supported with temporary mechanical circulatory support (MCS). In-hospital mortality was lower in patients who received PACs (29.3% vs 36.2%; P = 0.02), mainly driven by a reduction in mortality among those in Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) stages D and E CS. Patients who received PACs were more likely to receive temporary MCS with Impella, durable ventricular assist devices (VADs), or orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT) (P < 0.001 for all analyses). CICU and hospital lengths of stay were longer in patients who used PACs. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CS, the use of PACs was associated with lower in-hospital mortality, especially among those in SCAI stages D and E. Patients who received PACs were also more frequently rescued with temporary MCS or received advanced heart failure therapies, such as durable VADs or OHT.

The influence of age and sex on the prognostic importance of traditional cardiovascular risk factors, selected circulating biomarkers and other markers of subclinical cardiovascular damage.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: There is an increasing need for improved risk stratification to better individualize cardiovascular preventive measures. Although age and sex are strong and easily obtained cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), their influence on the prognostic importance of other CVRF, circulating biomarkers and other markers of subclinical cardiovascular damage has not previously been systematically and critically appraised. Therefore, we have revisited the European MORGAM and the Danish MONI10 cohorts. RECENT FINDINGS: Theoretically, the relative risk of many CVRF is expected to be lower in older healthy individuals due to a combination of selection bias by disease, higher absolute risk primarily due to older age, and the fact that the CVRF and markers may primarily influence or reflect early parts of the cardiovascular disease process. This influence of age may vary between sexes, as the cardiovascular disease process is delayed and possibly different in women compared with men. SUMMARY: Adjusted for the remaining Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) CVRF, higher SBP, serum cholesterol, soluble urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor, left ventricular mass index and atherosclerotic plaques were more closely associated with outcomes in individuals younger than 52 years with some sex-specific differences, whereas higher N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and urine albumin/creatine ratio were more closely associated with outcomes in subjects aged 61 or 71 years.

Exploring the incremental utility of circulating biomarkers for robust risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation in European cohorts using regressions and modern machine learning methods.

AIMS: To identify robust circulating predictors for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) using classical regressions and machine learning (ML) techniques within a broad spectrum of candidate variables. METHODS AND RESULTS: In pooled European community cohorts (n = 42 280 individuals), 14 routinely available biomarkers mirroring distinct pathophysiological pathways including lipids, inflammation, renal, and myocardium-specific markers (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], high-sensitivity troponin I [hsTnI]) were examined in relation to incident AF using Cox regressions and distinct ML methods. Of 42 280 individuals (21 843 women [51.7%]; median [interquartile range, IQR] age, 52.2 [42.7, 62.0] years), 1496 (3.5%) developed AF during a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. In multivariable-adjusted Cox-regression analysis, NT-proBNP was the strongest circulating predictor of incident AF [hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation (SD), 1.93 (95% CI, 1.82-2.04); P < 0.001]. Further, hsTnI [HR per SD, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.13-1.22); P < 0.001], cystatin C [HR per SD, 1.16 (95% CI, 1.10-1.23); P < 0.001], and C-reactive protein [HR per SD, 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02-1.14); P = 0.012] correlated positively with incident AF. Applying various ML techniques, a high inter-method consistency of selected candidate variables was observed. NT-proBNP was identified as the blood-based marker with the highest predictive value for incident AF. Relevant clinical predictors were age, the use of antihypertensive medication, and body mass index. CONCLUSION: Using different variable selection procedures including ML methods, NT-proBNP consistently remained the strongest blood-based predictor of incident AF and ranked before classical cardiovascular risk factors. The clinical benefit of these findings for identifying at-risk individuals for targeted AF screening needs to be elucidated and tested prospectively.

Patients with fulminant myocarditis supported with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of short-term mortality and impact of risk factors.

Fulminant myocarditis (FM) may lead to cardiogenic shock requiring veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). Results of effectiveness studies of VA-ECMO have been contradictory. We evaluated the aggregate short-term mortality after VA-ECMO and predictive factors in patients with FM. We systematically searched in electronic databases (February 2022) to identify studies evaluating short-term mortality (defined as mortality at 30 days or in-hospital) after VA-ECMO support for FM. We included studies with 5 or more patients published after 2009. We assessed the quality of the evidence using the QUIPS and GRADE tools. Mortality was pooled using random effect models. We performed meta-regression to explore heterogeneity based on a priori defined factors. We included 54 observational studies encompassing 2388 FM patients supported with VA-ECMO. Median age was 41 years (25th to 75th percentile 37-47), and 50% were female. The pooled short-term mortality was 35% (95% CI 29-40%, I2 = 69%; moderate certainty). By meta-regression, studies with younger populations showed lower mortality. Female sex, receiving a biopsy, cardiac arrest, left ventricular unloading, and earlier recruitment time frame, did not explain heterogeneity. These results remained consistent regardless of continent and the risk of bias category. In individual studies, low pH value, high lactate, absence of functional cardiac recovery on ECMO, increased burden of malignant arrhythmia, high peak coronary markers, and IVIG use were identified as independent predictors of mortality. When conventional therapies have failed, especially in younger patients, cardiopulmonary support with VA-ECMO should be considered in the treatment of severe FM.

Impact of serial measurements of tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion on mortality and morbidity after heart transplantation.

The impact of right ventricular (RV) dysfunction on long-term post-HTx outcomes remains uncertain. We assessed the impact of serial measurements of Tricuspid Annular Plane Systolic Excursion (TAPSE) on post-HTx mortality and morbidity. This two-center retrospective cohort study included consecutive adult HTx recipients (2000-2017). We used multivariable extended hazard regression models to evaluate the association between TAPSE and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), entered as time-dependent variables, and all-cause mortality, cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV), acute cellular rejection (ACR), and chronic kidney disease (CKD). TAPSE was modelled using cubic splines. We included 485 HTx recipients (9461 TAPSE measurements), median (25th- 75th percentile) 19 (10-27) mm; median age was 52 (41-59) years, and 71.3% were male. During a follow-up of 6.7 (3.0-10.8) years, 92 patients died, 225 had ACR >2R, 234 CAV, and 91 CKD. By multivariable analysis, for each 1-mm decrease in patients with a TAPSE value <15mm, mortality increased by 22% (P<.001). For the average HTx recipient with a TAPSE of 15mm, 10mm, and 6mm, 1-year mortality was 3%, 7%, and 17%, and 5-year mortality was 8%, 20%, and 43%, respectively. Reduced TAPSE was significantly associated with increased CAV but notACR and CKD. A decrease in TAPSE below 15mm represents clinically significant graft dysfunction, warranting close monitoring.

Advanced heart failure: guideline-directed medical therapy, diuretics, inotropes, and palliative care.

Heart failure (HF) is a major cause of mortality, hospitalizations, and reduced quality of life and a major burden for the healthcare system. The number of patients that progress to an advanced stage of HF is growing. Only a limited proportion of these patients can undergo heart transplantation or mechanical circulatory support. The purpose of this review is to summarize medical management of patients with advanced HF. First, evidence-based oral treatment must be implemented although it is often not tolerated. New therapeutic options may soon become possible for these patients. The second goal is to lessen the symptomatic burden through both decongestion and haemodynamic improvement. Some new treatments acting on cardiac function may fulfil both these needs. Inotropic agents acting through an increase in intracellular calcium have often increased risk of death. However, in the recent Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac Outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC-HF) trial, omecamtiv mecarbil was safe and effective in the reduction of the primary outcome of cardiovascular death or HF event compared with placebo (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.99; P = 0.03) and its effects were larger in those patients with more severe left ventricular dysfunction. Patients with severe HF who received omecamtiv mecarbil experienced a significant treatment benefit, whereas patients without severe HF did not (P = 0.005 for interaction). Lastly, clinicians should take care of the end of life with an appropriate multidisciplinary approach. Medical treatment of advanced HF therefore remains a major challenge and a wide open area for further research.

Contemporary Drug Treatment of Advanced Heart Failure with Reduced Ejection Fraction.

The introduction of multiple new pharmacological agents over the past three decades in the field of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) has led to reduced rates of mortality and hospitalizations, and consequently the prevalence of HFrEF has increased, and up to 10% of patients progress to more advanced stages, characterized by high rates of mortality, hospitalizations, and poor quality of life. Advanced HFrEF patients often show persistent or progressive signs of severe HF symptoms corresponding to New York Heart Association class III or IV despite being on optimal medical, surgical, and device therapies. However, a subpopulation of patients with advanced HF, those with the most advanced stages of disease, were often insufficiently represented in the major trials demonstrating efficacy and tolerability of the drugs used in HFrEF due to exclusion criteria such as low BP and kidney dysfunction. Consequently, the results of many landmark trials cannot necessarily be transferred to patients with the most advanced stages of HFrEF. Thus, the efficacy and tolerability of guideline-directed medical therapies in patients with the most advanced stages of HFrEF often remain unsettled, and this knowledge is of crucial importance in the planning and timing of consideration for referral for advanced therapies. This review discusses the evidence regarding the use of contemporary drugs in the advanced HFrEF population, covering components such as guideline HFrEF drugs, diuretics, inotropes, and the use of HFrEF drugs in LVAD recipients, and provides suggestions on how to manage guideline-directed therapy in this patient group.

Association between continuous-flow left ventricular assist device infections requiring long-term antibiotic use and post-heart transplant morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIM OF STUDY: There exists controversy regarding the impact of infection in patients with a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) on post-heart transplant outcomes. This study evaluated the association between infections during LVAD support and the risk of early and late post-heart transplant infection, rejection, and mortality in transplant recipients bridged with an LVAD. METHODS: This is a single-center retrospective observational cohort study of consecutive adults supported with a continuous flow LVAD undergoing heart transplant between 2006 and 2019 at the Toronto General Hospital. The grade of LVAD infection was classified as per International Society of Heart and Lung Transplantation guidelines. Patients were divided into three groups: (1) patients with LVAD-specific infection confirmed with positive cultures requiring long-term antibiotic use until the time of transplant; (2) patients with any type of infection in whom antibiotics were stopped at least 1 month before transplant; (3) patients without any infections between LVAD implant and transplant. Logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate early- and late-post transplant outcomes, respectively. RESULTS: We included 75 LVAD recipients: 16 (21%) patients had a chronic LVAD-related infection on suppressive antibiotics, 30 (40%) had a resolved infection, and 29 (39%) had no infections. During a median post-transplant follow-up time of 4 (2 to 7) years, 65 (87%) patients developed infections, 43 (64%) rejections, and 17 (23%) deaths. Both short- and long-term risks of infection, rejection, and mortality did not differ significantly among the groups. CONCLUSION: LVAD patients with infections did not have a significantly higher risk of infection, rejection, or mortality at any time point after transplant.

Age-specific atrial fibrillation incidence, attributable risk factors and risk of stroke and mortality: results from the MORGAM Consortium.

BACKGROUND: The main aim was to examine age-specific risk factor associations with incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and their attributable fraction in a large European cohort. Additionally, we aimed to examine risk of stroke and mortality in relation to new-onset AF across age. METHODS: We used individual-level data (n=66 951, 49.1% men, age range 40-98 years at baseline) from five European cohorts of the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph Consortium. The participants were followed for incident AF for up to 10 years and the association with modifiable risk factors from the baseline examinations (body mass index (BMI), hypertension, diabetes, daily smoking, alcohol consumption and history of stroke and myocardial infarction (MI)) was examined. Additionally, the participants were followed up for incident stroke and all-cause mortality after new-onset AF. RESULTS: AF incidence increased from 0.9 per 1000 person-years at baseline age 40-49 years, to 17.7 at baseline age ≥70 years. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models showed that higher BMI, hypertension, high alcohol consumption and a history of stroke or MI were associated with increased risk of AF across age groups (p<0.05). Between 30% and 40% of the AF risk could be attributed to BMI, hypertension and a history of stroke or MI. New-onset AF was associated with a twofold increase in risk of stroke and death at ages≥70 years (p≤0.001). CONCLUSION: In this large European cohort aged 40 years and above, risk of AF was largely attributed to BMI, high alcohol consumption and a history MI or stroke from middle age. Thus, preventive measures for AF should target risk factors such as obesity and hypertension from early age and continue throughout life.

Predictive Importance of Blood Pressure Characteristics With Increasing Age in Healthy Men and Women: The MORGAM Project.

[Figure: see text].

Sex- and age-related differences in the predictive capability of circulating biomarkers: from the MONICA 10 cohort.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess whether high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), and soluble urokinase plasminogen activator receptor (suPAR) differed in their ability to predict cardiovascular outcomes beyond traditional risk factors in younger and older men and women without known cardiovascular disease. Design. Prospective population-based cohort study of 1951 individuals from the MONItoring of trends and determinants in Cardiovascular disease (MONICA) study, examined 1993-1994. Participants were stratified into four groups based on sex and age. Subjects aged 41 or 51 years were classified as younger; those aged 61 or 71 years were classified as older. The principal endpoint was death from cardiovascular causes. Predictive capabilities of biomarkers were tested using Cox proportional-hazards regression, Harrell's concordance-index, net reclassification improvement, and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Results. Median follow-up was 18.5 years, during which 19/597 younger men, 100/380 older men, 12/607 younger women, and 46/367 older women had died from a cardiovascular cause. NT-proBNP was independently associated with death from cardiovascular causes among all participants (p ≤ .02) except younger women (p = .70), whereas hs-CRP was associated with this endpoint in men (p ≤ .007), and suPAR in older men only (p < .001). None of the biomarkers improved discrimination ability beyond traditional risk factors (p ≥ .07). However, NT-proBNP enhanced reclassification in men and older women. CART-analysis showed that NT-proBNP was generally of greater value among men, and suPAR among women. Conclusions. Hs-CRP, NT-proBNP, and suPAR displayed different associations with cardiovascular death among apparently healthy younger and older men and women.

Exercise Tolerance in Patients Treated With a Durable Left Ventricular Assist Device: Importance of Myocardial Recovery.

The number of patients supported with left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) is growing and support times are increasing. This has led to a greater focus on functional capacity of these patients. LVADs greatly improve heart failure symptoms, but surprisingly, improvement in peak oxygen uptake (pVO2) is small and remains decreased at approximately 50% of normal values. Inadequate increase in cardiac output during exercise is the main responsible factor for the low pVO2 in LVAD recipients. Some patients experience LV recovery during mechanical unloading and these patients have a higher pVO2. Here we review the various components determining exercise cardiac output in LVAD recipients and discuss the potential impact of cardiac recovery on these components. LV recovery may affect several components, leading to improved hemodynamics during exercise and, in turn, physical capacity in patients with advanced heart failure undergoing LVAD implantation.

Predicting the Risk of Right Ventricular Failure in Patients Undergoing Left Ventricular Assist Device Implantation: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Right ventricular failure (RVF) is a cause of major morbidity and mortality after left ventricular assist device (LVAD) implantation. It is, therefore, integral to identify patients who may benefit from biventricular support early post-LVAD implantation. Our objective was to explore the performance of risk prediction models for RVF in adult patients undergoing LVAD implantation. METHODS: A systematic search was performed on Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception until August 2019 for all relevant studies. Performance was assessed by discrimination (via C statistic) and calibration if reported. Study quality was assessed using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool criteria. RESULTS: After reviewing 3878 citations, 25 studies were included, featuring 20 distinctly derived models. Five models were derived from large multicenter cohorts: the European Registry for Patients With Mechanical Circulatory Support, Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support, Kormos, Pittsburgh Bayesian, and Mechanical Circulatory Support Research Network RVF models. Seventeen studies (68%) were conducted in cohorts implanted with continuous-flow LVADs exclusively. The definition of RVF as an outcome was heterogenous among models. Seven derived models (28%) were validated in at least 2 cohorts, reporting limited discrimination (C-statistic range, 0.53-0.65). Calibration was reported in only 3 studies and was variable. CONCLUSIONS: Existing RVF prediction models exhibit heterogeneous derivation and validation methodologies, varying definitions of RVF, and are mostly derived from single centers. Validation studies of these prediction models demonstrate poor-to-modest discrimination. Newer models are derived in cohorts implanted with continuous-flow LVADs exclusively and exhibit modest discrimination. Derivation of enhanced discriminatory models and their validations in multicenter cohorts is needed.

Cardiac Troponin I and Incident Stroke in European Cohorts: Insights From the BiomarCaRE Project.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is a common cause of death and a leading cause of disability and morbidity. Stroke risk assessment remains a challenge, but circulating biomarkers may improve risk prediction. Controversial evidence is available on the predictive ability of troponin concentrations and the risk of stroke in the community. Furthermore, reports on the predictive value of troponin concentrations for different stroke subtypes are scarce. METHODS: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hsTnI) concentrations were assessed in 82 881 individuals (median age, 50.7 years; 49.7% men) free of stroke or myocardial infarction at baseline from 9 prospective European community cohorts. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to determine relative risks, followed by measures of discrimination and reclassification using 10-fold cross-validation to control for overoptimism. Follow-up was based upon linkage with national hospitalization registries and causes of death registries. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 12.7 years, 3033 individuals were diagnosed with incident nonfatal or fatal stroke (n=1654 ischemic strokes, n=612 hemorrhagic strokes, and n=767 indeterminate strokes). In multivariable regression models, hsTnI concentrations were associated with overall stroke (hazard ratio per 1-SD increase, 1.15 [95% CI, 1.10-1.21]), ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.09-1.21]), and hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.01-1.20]). Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical cardiovascular risk factors (C indices, 0.809, 0.840, and 0.736 for overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke, respectively) increased the C index significantly but modestly. In individuals with an intermediate 10-year risk (5%-20%), the net reclassification improvement for overall stroke was 0.038 (P=0.021). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated hsTnI concentrations are associated with an increased risk of incident stroke in the community, irrespective of stroke subtype. Adding hsTnI concentrations to classical risk factors only modestly improved estimation of 10-year risk of stroke in the overall cohort but might be of some value in individuals at an intermediate risk.

Clinical presentation and outcomes in women and men with advanced heart failure.

OBJECTIVE: To examine clinical characteristics and outcomes in women and men referred for advanced heart failure (HF) therapies such as left ventricular assist device (LVAD) or heart transplantation (HTx). Design: A retrospective study of 429 (23% women) consecutive adult HF patients not on inotropic or mechanical circulatory support with left ventricular ejection fraction ≤45% referred for assessment of advanced HF therapies at a single tertiary institution between 2002 and 2016. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were compared in women and men, and all patients underwent right heart catheterization (RHC). Results: At evaluation, women were younger than men (48 ± 13 vs. 51 ± 12 years, p = .02), and less likely to have ischemic cardiomyopathy. There were no significant differences in NYHA class, contemporary HF therapy use, or physical examination findings, except for lower jugular vein distension and body surface area in women. On RHC, women had lower cardiac filling pressures, but similar pulmonary vascular resistance and cardiac index. Peak oxygen uptake from cardiopulmonary exercise testing was similar in both sexes. At total follow-up time, there were 164 deaths (21% vs. 44%, p < .0001), 46 LVADs (3% vs. 13%, p = .005), 110 HTxs (32% vs. 25%, p = .15), and 82 HTxs without requiring LVAD (29% vs. 16%, p = .03) in women and men. The time from RHC to HTx (±LVAD) was significantly shorter in women compared to men. Female sex was significantly associated with higher survival independent of time-trend, age, and comorbidities. Conclusion: At evaluation, hemodynamics were less deranged in women. A higher proportion of women received HTx, their waitlist time was shorter, and survival greater.

Comparison of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in European Population Cohorts for Predicting Atrial Fibrillation and Heart Failure, Their Subsequent Onset, and Death.

Background Differences in risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) are incompletely understood. Aim of this study was to understand whether risk factors and biomarkers show different associations with incident AF and HF and to investigate predictors of subsequent onset and mortality. Methods and Results In N=58 693 individuals free of AF/HF from 5 population-based European cohorts, Cox regressions were used to find predictors for AF, HF, subsequent onset, and mortality. Differences between associations were estimated using bootstrapping. Median follow-up time was 13.8 years, with a mortality of 15.7%. AF and HF occurred in 5.0% and 5.4% of the participants, respectively, with 1.8% showing subsequent onset. Age, male sex, myocardial infarction, body mass index, and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide) showed similar associations with both diseases. Antihypertensive medication and smoking were stronger predictors of HF than AF. Cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein) were associated with HF, but not with AF. No variable was exclusively associated with AF. Population-attributable risks were higher for HF (75.6%) than for AF (30.9%). Age, male sex, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, and NT-proBNP were associated with subsequent onset, which was associated with the highest all-cause mortality risk. Conclusions Common risk factors and biomarkers showed different associations with AF and HF, and explained a higher proportion of HF than AF risk. As the subsequent onset of both diseases was strongly associated with mortality, prevention needs to be rigorously addressed and remains challenging, as conventional risk factors explained only 31% of AF risk.

Does Estimated Pulse Wave Velocity Add Prognostic Information?: MORGAM Prospective Cohort Project.

The Reference Values for Arterial Stiffness Collaboration has derived an equation using age and mean blood pressure to estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV), which predicted cardiovascular events independently of Systematic COoronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and Framingham Risk Score. The study aim was to investigate the independent association between ePWV and clinical outcomes in 107 599 apparently healthy subjects (53% men) aged 19 to 97 years from the MORGAM Project who were included between 1982 and 2002 in 38 cohorts from 11 countries. Using multiple Cox-regression analyses, the predictive value of ePWV was calculated adjusting for country of inclusion and either SCORE, Framingham Risk Score, or traditional cardiovascular risk factors (age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, body mass index [BMI], total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol). Cardiovascular mortality consisted of fatal stroke, fatal myocardial infarction, or coronary death, and the composite cardiovascular end point consisted of stroke, myocardial infarction, or coronary death. Model discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C-statistic. Adjusting for country and logSCORE or Framingham Risk Score, ePWV was associated with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.23 [95% CI 1.20-1.25] per m/s or 1.32 [1.29-1.34]), cardiovascular mortality (1.26 [1.21-1.32] or 1.35 [1.31-1.40]), and composite cardiovascular end point (1.19 [1.16-1.22] or 1.23 [1.20-1.25]; all P<0.001). However, after adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, ePWV was only associated with all-cause mortality (1.15 [1.08-1.22], P<0.001) and not with cardiovascular mortality (0.97 [0.91-1.03]) nor composite cardiovascular end point (1.10 [0.97-1.26]). The areas under the last 3 receiver operator characteristic curves remained unchanged when adding ePWV. Elevated ePWV was associated with subsequent mortality and cardiovascular morbidity independently of systematic coronary risk evaluation and Framingham Risk Score but not independently of traditional cardiovascular risk factors.