Antiretroviral Initiation at ≥800 CD4+ Cells/mm3 Associated With Lower Human Immunodeficiency Virus Reservoir Size.

BACKGROUND: Identifying factors that determine the frequency of latently infected CD4+ T cells on antiretroviral therapy (ART) may inform strategies for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) cure. We investigated the role of CD4+ count at ART initiation for HIV persistence on ART. METHODS: Among participants of the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment Study, we enrolled people with HIV (PWH) who initiated ART with CD4+ T-cell counts of 500-599, 600-799, or ≥ 800 cells/mm3. After 36-44 months on ART, the levels of total HIV-DNA, cell-associated unspliced HIV-RNA (CA-US HIV-RNA), and two-long terminal repeat HIV-DNA in CD4+ T cells were quantified and plasma HIV-RNA was measured by single-copy assay. We measured T-cell expression of Human Leucocyte Antigen-DR Isotype (HLA-DR), programmed death-1, and phosphorylated signal transducer and activator of transcription-5 (pSTAT5). Virological and immunological measures were compared across CD4+ strata. RESULTS: We enrolled 146 PWH, 36 in the 500-599, 60 in the 600-799, and 50 in the ≥ 800 CD4 strata. After 36-44 months of ART, total HIV-DNA, plasma HIV-RNA, and HLA-DR expression were significantly lower in PWH with CD4+ T-cell count ≥ 800 cells/mm3 at ART initiation compared with 600-799 or 500-599 cells/mm3. The median level of HIV-DNA after 36-44 months of ART was lower by 75% in participants initiating ART with ≥ 800 vs 500-599 cells/mm3 (median [interquartile range]: 16.3 [7.0-117.6] vs 68.4 [13.7-213.1] copies/million cells, respectively). Higher pSTAT5 expression significantly correlated with lower levels of HIV-DNA and CA-US HIV-RNA. Virological measures were significantly lower in females. CONCLUSIONS: Initiating ART with a CD4+ count ≥ 800 cells/mm3 compared with 600-799 or 500-599 cells/mm3 was associated with achieving a substantially smaller HIV reservoir on ART.

Accelerating development of new shorter TB treatment regimens in anticipation of a resurgence of multi-drug resistant TB due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The WHO 2020 global TB Report estimates that in 2019 there were an estimated 500,000 cases of multi-drug resistant TB (MDR-TB) of which only 186,772 MDR-TB cases were diagnosed, and positive treatment outcomes were achieved in 57% of them. These data highlight the need for accelerating and improving MDR-TB screening, diagnostic, treatment and patient follow-up services. The last decade has seen three new TB drugs being licensed; bedaquiline, delamanid and pretomanid, and combinations these new, existing and repurposed drugs are leading to improved cure rates. The all oral six month WHO regimen for MDR-TB is more tolerable, has higher treatment success rates and lower mortality. However, the unprecedented ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is having major direct and indirect negative impacts on health services overall, including national TB programs and TB services. This adds further to longstanding challenges for tackling MDR-TB such as cost, rollout of diagnostics and drugs, and implementation of latest WHO guidelines for MDR-TB. In light of COVID-19 disruption of TB services, it is anticipated the numbers of MDR-TB cases will rise in 2021 and 2022 and will affect treatment outcomes further. Investing more in development of new TB drugs and shorter MDR-TB treatment regimens is required in anticipation of emerging drug resistance to new TB drug regimens. There is an urgent need for protecting current investments in TB services, sustaining gains being made in TB control and accelerating roll out of TB diagnostic and treatment services.

Accelerating the development of therapeutic strategies for drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Recent progress in the discovery, development and evaluation of new drugs and combination regimens for drug-resistant tuberculosis through greater collaboration between industry, donors and academia provides renewed hope for overcoming the challenges in tuberculosis treatment.

Tuberculosis: progress and advances in development of new drugs, treatment regimens, and host-directed therapies.

Tuberculosis remains the world's leading cause of death from an infectious disease, responsible for an estimated 1 674 000 deaths annually. WHO estimated 600 000 cases of rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis in 2016-of which 490 000 were multidrug resistant (MDR), with less than 50% survival after receiving recommended treatment regimens. Concerted efforts of stakeholders, advocates, and researchers are advancing further development of shorter course, more effective, safer, and better tolerated treatment regimens. We review the developmental pipeline and landscape of new and repurposed tuberculosis drugs, treatment regimens, and host-directed therapies (HDTs) for drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tuberculosis. 14 candidate drugs for drug-susceptible, drug-resistant, and latent tuberculosis are in clinical stages of drug development; nine are novel in phase 1 and 2 trials, and three new drugs are in advanced stages of development for MDR tuberculosis. Specific updates are provided on clinical trials of bedaquiline, delamanid, pretomanid, and other licensed or repurposed drugs that are undergoing investigation, including trials aimed at shortening duration of tuberculosis treatment, improving treatment outcomes and patient adherence, and reducing toxic effects. Ongoing clinical trials for shortening tuberculosis treatment duration, improving treatment outcomes in MDR tuberculosis, and preventing disease in people with latent tuberculosis infection are reviewed. A range of HDTs and immune-based treatments are under investigation as adjunctive therapy for shortening duration of therapy, preventing permanent lung injury, and improving treatment outcomes of MDR tuberculosis. We discuss the HDT development pipeline, ongoing clinical trials, and translational research efforts for adjunct tuberculosis treatment.

No neurocognitive advantage for immediate antiretroviral treatment in adults with greater than 500 CD4+ T-cell counts.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of immediate versus deferred antiretroviral treatment (ART) on neuropsychological test performance in treatment-naive HIV-positive adults with more than 500 CD4 cells/µl. DESIGN: Randomized trial. METHODS: The START parent study randomized participants to commence immediate versus deferred ART until CD4 less than 350 cells/µl. The START Neurology substudy used eight neuropsychological tests, at baseline, months 4, 8, 12 and annually, to compare groups for changes in test performance. Test results were internally standardized to z-scores. The primary outcome was the average of the eight test z-scores (QNPZ-8). Mean changes in QNPZ-8 from baseline were compared by intent-to-treat using longitudinal mixed models. Changes from baseline to specific time points were compared using ANCOVA models. RESULTS: The 592 participants had a median age of 34 years; median baseline CD4 count was 629 cells/µl; the mean follow-up was 3.4 years. ART was used for 94 and 32% of accrued person-years in the immediate and deferred groups, respectively. There was no difference between the immediate and deferred ART groups in QNPZ-8 change through follow-up [-0.018 (95% CI -0.062 to 0.027, P = 0.44)], or at any visit. However, QNPZ-8 scores increased in both arms during the first year, by 0.22 and 0.24, respectively (P < 0.001 for increase from baseline). CONCLUSION: We observed substantial improvement in neurocognitive test performance during the first year in both study arms, underlining the importance of using a control group in studies assessing neurocognitive performance over time. Immediate ART neither benefitted nor harmed neurocognitive performance in individuals with CD4 cell counts above 500 cells/µl.

Circulating miR-122 and miR-200a as biomarkers for fatal liver disease in ART-treated, HIV-1-infected individuals.

Liver disease is one of the main contributors to the increased levels of morbidity and mortality seen in the HIV-1-infected, ART-treated population. Circulating miRNAs, particularly those located inside extracellular vesicles, are seen as promising biomarkers for a number of human disease conditions, including liver-related diseases. Here, we show that serum levels of miR-122 and miR-200a are greater in HIV/HCV co-infected individuals compared to HIV-1 mono-infected individuals. We also show that miR-122 and miR-200a are elevated in ART-treated, HIV-1-infected individuals prior to the development of fatal liver disease, suggesting that these miRNA may have some potential clinical utility as biomarkers. While this study is hypothesis generating, it shows clearly that both miR-122 and miR-200a are promising novel biomarkers for liver disease in the ART-treated, HIV-1-infected population.

Effect of immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy on risk of severe bacterial infections in HIV-positive people with CD4 cell counts of more than 500 cells per µL: secondary outcome results from a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The effects of antiretroviral therapy on risk of severe bacterial infections in people with high CD4 cell counts have not been well described. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of immediate versus deferred ART on the risk of severe bacterial infection in people with high CD4 cell counts in a preplanned analysis of the START trial. METHODS: The START trial was a randomised controlled trial in ART-naive HIV-positive patients with CD4 cell count of more than 500 cells per µL assigned to immediate ART or deferral until their CD4 cell counts were lower than 350 cells per µL. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to model time to severe bacterial infection, which was defined as a composite endpoint of bacterial pneumonia (confirmed by the endpoint review committee), pulmonary or extrapulmonary tuberculosis, or any bacterial infectious disorder of grade 4 severity, that required unscheduled hospital admissions, or caused death. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00867048. FINDINGS: Patients were recruited from April 15, 2009, to Dec 23, 2013. The data cutoff for follow-up was May 26, 2015. Of 4685 HIV-positive people enrolled, 120 had severe bacterial infections (immediate-initiation group n=34, deferred-initiation group n=86; median 2·8 years of follow-up). Immediate ART was associated with a reduced risk of severe bacterial infection compared with deferred ART (hazard ratio [HR] 0·39, 95% CI 0·26-0·57, p<0·0001). In the immediate-initiation group, average neutrophil count over follow-up was 321 cells per µL higher, and average CD4 cell count 194 cells per µL higher than the deferred-initiation group (p<0·0001). In univariable analysis, higher time-updated CD4 cell count (0·78, 0·71-0·85, p=0·0001) was associated with reduced risk of severe bacterial infection. Time-updated neutrophil count was not associated with severe bacterial infection. After adjustment for time-updated factors in multivariable analysis, particularly the CD4 cell count, the HR for immediate-initiation group moved closer to 1 (HR 0·84, 0·50-1·41, p=0·52). These results were consistent when subgroups of the severe bacterial infection composite were analysed separately. INTERPRETATION: Immediate ART reduces the risk of several severe bacterial infections in HIV-positive people with high CD4 cell count. This is partly explained by ART-induced increases in CD4 cell count, but not by increases in neutrophil count. FUNDING: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases National Institutes of Health, Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les Hépatites Virales, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, European AIDS Treatment Network, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research and Medical Research Council, Danish National Research Foundation.

Interleukin 6 Is a Stronger Predictor of Clinical Events Than High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein or D-Dimer During HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND: Interleukin 6 (IL-6), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), and D-dimer levels are linked to adverse outcomes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, but the strength of their associations with different clinical end points warrants investigation. METHODS: Participants receiving standard of care in 2 HIV trials with measured biomarker levels were followed to ascertain all-cause death, non-AIDS-related death, AIDS, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and non-AIDS-defining malignancies. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of each end point for quartiles and log2-transformed IL-6, hsCRP, and D-dimer levels were calculated using Cox models. Marginal models modelling multiple events tested for equal effects of biomarker levels on different end points. RESULTS: Among 4304 participants, there were 157 all-cause deaths, 117 non-AIDS-related deaths, 101 AIDS cases, 121 CVD cases, and 99 non-AIDS-defining malignancies. IL-6 was more strongly associated with most end points, compared with hsCRP. IL-6 appeared to be a stronger predictor than D-dimer for CVD and non-AIDS-defining malignancies, but 95% CIs overlapped. Independent associations of IL-6 were stronger for non-AIDS-related death (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.43-2.04) and all-cause death (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.33-1.84) and similar for CVD (HR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.12-1.62) and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.06-1.61). There was heterogeneity of IL-6 (P < .001) but not hsCRP (P = .15) or D-dimer (P = .20) as a predictor for different end points. CONCLUSIONS: IL-6 is a stronger predictor of fatal events than of CVD and non-AIDS-defining malignancies. Adjuvant antiinflammatory and antithrombotic therapies should be tested in HIV-infected individuals.

Lessons learned: Infrastructure development and financial management for large, publicly funded, international trials.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Randomized clinical trials are widely recognized as essential to address worldwide clinical and public health research questions. However, their size and duration can overwhelm available public and private resources. To remain competitive in international research settings, advocates and practitioners of clinical trials must implement practices that reduce their cost. We identify approaches and practices for large, publicly funded, international trials that reduce cost without compromising data integrity and recommend an approach to cost reporting that permits comparison of clinical trials. METHODS: We describe the organizational and financial characteristics of The International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials, an infectious disease research network that conducts multiple, large, long-term, international trials, and examine challenges associated with simple and streamlined governance and an infrastructure and financial management model that is based on performance, transparency, and accountability. RESULTS: It is possible to reduce costs of participants' follow-up and not compromise clinical trial quality or integrity. The International Network for Strategic Initiatives in Global HIV Trials network has successfully completed three large HIV trials using cost-efficient practices that have not adversely affected investigator enthusiasm, accrual rates, loss-to-follow-up, adherence to the protocol, and completion of data collection. This experience is relevant to the conduct of large, publicly funded trials in other disease areas, particularly trials dependent on international collaborations. CONCLUSION: New approaches, or creative adaption of traditional clinical trial infrastructure and financial management tools, can render large, international clinical trials more cost-efficient by emphasizing structural simplicity, minimal up-front costs, payments for performance, and uniform algorithms and fees-for-service, irrespective of location. However, challenges remain. They include institutional resistance to financial change, growing trial complexity, and the difficulty of sustaining network infrastructure absent stable research work. There is also a need for more central monitoring, improved and harmonized regulations, and a widely applied metric for measuring and comparing cost efficiency in clinical trials. ClinicalTrials.gov is recommended as a location where standardized trial cost information could be made publicly accessible.

Circulating microRNAs in Sera Correlate with Soluble Biomarkers of Immune Activation but Do Not Predict Mortality in ART Treated Individuals with HIV-1 Infection: A Case Control Study.

INTRODUCTION: The use of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) has dramatically reduced HIV-1 associated morbidity and mortality. However, HIV-1 infected individuals have increased rates of morbidity and mortality compared to the non-HIV-1 infected population and this appears to be related to end-organ diseases collectively referred to as Serious Non-AIDS Events (SNAEs). Circulating miRNAs are reported as promising biomarkers for a number of human disease conditions including those that constitute SNAEs. Our study sought to investigate the potential of selected miRNAs in predicting mortality in HIV-1 infected ART treated individuals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A set of miRNAs was chosen based on published associations with human disease conditions that constitute SNAEs. This case: control study compared 126 cases (individuals who died whilst on therapy), and 247 matched controls (individuals who remained alive). Cases and controls were ART treated participants of two pivotal HIV-1 trials. The relative abundance of each miRNA in serum was measured, by RTqPCR. Associations with mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular and malignancy) were assessed by logistic regression analysis. Correlations between miRNAs and CD4+ T cell count, hs-CRP, IL-6 and D-dimer were also assessed. RESULTS: None of the selected miRNAs was associated with all-cause, cardiovascular or malignancy mortality. The levels of three miRNAs (miRs -21, -122 and -200a) correlated with IL-6 while miR-21 also correlated with D-dimer. Additionally, the abundance of miRs -31, -150 and -223, correlated with baseline CD4+ T cell count while the same three miRNAs plus miR-145 correlated with nadir CD4+ T cell count. DISCUSSION: No associations with mortality were found with any circulating miRNA studied. These results cast doubt onto the effectiveness of circulating miRNA as early predictors of mortality or the major underlying diseases that contribute to mortality in participants treated for HIV-1 infection.

Factors Associated With Plasma IL-6 Levels During HIV Infection.

BACKGROUND: Elevated interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels have been linked to cardiovascular disease, cancer and death. Persons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection receiving treatment have higher IL-6 levels, but few data are available on factors associated with circulating IL-6. METHODS: Participants in 3 trials with IL-6 measured at baseline were included (N = 9864). Factors associated with IL-6 were identified by linear regression. Demographic and HIV variables (nadir/entry CD4(+) cell count, HIV RNA level, antiretroviral therapy regimen) were investigated in all 3 trials. In the SMART (Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy) trial, CD4/CD8 ratio, smoking, comorbid conditions, serum lipids, renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]), and educational level were assessed. RESULTS: Demographics associated with higher IL-6 levels were older age and lower education, whereas black race was associated with lower IL-6. Higher HIV RNA levels were associated with higher IL-6 levels, and higher nadir CD4(+) cell counts with lower IL-6 levels. Compared with efavirenz, protease inhibitors were associated with higher and nevirapine with lower IL-6 levels. Smoking and all comorbid conditions were related to higher IL-6. IL-6 levels increased with decreasing eGFR and decreasing serum lipids. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of IL-6 were associated with older age, nonblack race, higher body mass index, lower serum lipid levels, HIV replication, low nadir CD4(+) cell count, protease inhibitor use, comorbid conditions, and decreased eGFR. Multiple factors affect inflammation in HIV and should be considered in studies of IL-6 as a biomarker of clinical outcomes.

Determinants of IL-6 levels during HIV infection.

INTRODUCTION: Elevated IL-6 levels have been linked to increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and death. Compared to the general population, treated HIV+ persons have 50-100% higher IL-6 levels, but few data on the determinants of IL-6 levels during HIV infection currently exist. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Participants in three international HIV trials (SMART, ESPRIT and SILCAAT) with IL-6 plasma levels measured at baseline were included (N=9864). Factors independently associated with log2-transformed IL-6 level were identified by multivariate linear regression; exponentiated estimates corresponding to fold differences (FDs) in IL-6 were calculated. Demographics (age, gender, race, BMI) and HIV-specific variables (nadir and entry CD4 counts, HIV-RNA, use of different ART regimens) were investigated in all three trials. In SMART (N=4498), smoking, comorbidities (CVD, diabetes, hepatitis B/C [HBV/HCV]), HDL-cholesterol, renal function (eGFR) and educational level were also assessed. RESULTS: Demographics associated with higher IL-6 were older age (FD [95% CI]: 1.09 [1.08-1.11] per 10 yr) and higher BMI (1.02 [1.01-1.04] per 5 kg/m(2)), whereas black race was associated with reduced IL-6 (0.96 [0.93-0.99]). As for HIV variables, patients not receiving ART (1.36 [1.29-1.43]) and with higher HIV-RNA (1.24 [1.01-1.52] for >100,000 vs. ≤500 copies/mL) had increased IL-6. Participants taking protease inhibitors (PI) had higher IL-6 (1.14[1.09-1.19]). Higher nadir CD4 count (0.98 [0.97-0.99]/100 cells/µL) was related to lower IL-6. All evaluated comorbidities were related to higher IL-6; FDs in IL-6 were 1.08 [1.04-1.12] for smoking, 1.12 [1.02-1.24] for CVD, 1.07 [1.00-1.16] for diabetes and 1.12 [1.02-1.24] for HBV (1.15 [1.02-1.30]) and 1.53 [1.45-1.62] for HCV. IL-6 increased with decreasing eGFR (0.98 [0.97-1.00]/10 mL/min) and HDL-cholesterol (0.98 [0.96-0.99]/10 mg/mL). Lower education was related to higher IL-6 (1.09 [1.03-1.15] for high school vs. bachelor's degree). CONCLUSIONS: Higher IL-6 levels were associated with older age and non-black race, higher BMI and lower HDL-cholesterol, ongoing HIV replication, low nadir CD4 counts, comorbidities and decreased renal function. This suggests that there are multiple causes of inflammation in treated HIV infection. A possible contribution from PI use was also observed. Contribution from inflammation to explain variation in clinical outcomes for these factors should be investigated.

Factors associated with D-dimer levels in HIV-infected individuals.

BACKGROUND: Higher plasma D-dimer levels are strong predictors of mortality in HIV+ individuals. The factors associated with D-dimer levels during HIV infection, however, remain poorly understood. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, participants in three randomized controlled trials with measured D-dimer levels were included (N = 9,848). Factors associated with D-dimer were identified by linear regression. Covariates investigated were: age, gender, race, body mass index, nadir and baseline CD4+ count, plasma HIV RNA levels, markers of inflammation (C-reactive protein [CRP], interleukin-6 [IL-6]), antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, ART regimens, co-morbidities (hepatitis B/C, diabetes mellitus, prior cardiovascular disease), smoking, renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and cystatin C) and cholesterol. RESULTS: Women from all age groups had higher D-dimer levels than men, though a steeper increase of D-dimer with age occurred in men. Hepatitis B/C co-infection was the only co-morbidity associated with higher D-dimer levels. In this subgroup, the degree of hepatic fibrosis, as demonstrated by higher hyaluronic acid levels, but not viral load of hepatitis viruses, was positively correlated with D-dimer. Other factors independently associated with higher D-dimer levels were black race, higher plasma HIV RNA levels, being off ART at baseline, and increased levels of CRP, IL-6 and cystatin C. In contrast, higher baseline CD4+ counts and higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were negatively correlated with D-dimer levels. CONCLUSIONS: D-dimer levels increase with age in HIV+ men, but are already elevated in women at an early age due to reasons other than a higher burden of concomitant diseases. In hepatitis B/C co-infected individuals, hepatic fibrosis, but not hepatitis viral load, was associated with higher D-dimer levels.

Improved neurocognitive test performance in both arms of the SMART study: impact of practice effect.

We evaluated factors associated with improvement in neurocognitive performance in 258 HIV-infected adults with baseline CD4 lymphocyte counts above 350 cells/mm³ randomized to intermittent, CD4-guided antiretroviral therapy (ART) (128 participants) versus continuous therapy (130) in the Neurology substudy of the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy trial. Participants were enrolled in Australia, North America, Brazil, and Thailand, and neurocognitive performance was assessed by a five-test battery at baseline and month 6. The primary outcome was change in the quantitative neurocognitive performance z score (QNPZ-5), the average of the z scores of the five tests. Associations of the 6-month change in test scores with ART use, CD4 cell counts, HIV RNA levels, and other factors were determined using multiple regression models. At baseline, median age was 40 years, median CD4 cell count was 513 cells/mm³, 88 % had plasma HIV RNA ≤ 400 copies/mL, and mean QNPZ-5 was -0.68. Neurocognitive performance improved in both treatment groups by 6 months; QNPZ-5 scores increased by 0.20 and 0.13 in the intermittent and continuous ART groups, respectively (both P < 0.001 for increase and P = 0.26 for difference). ART was used on average for 3.6 and 5.9 out of the 6 months in the intermittent and continuous ART groups, respectively, but the increase in neurocognitive test scores could not be explained by ART use, changes in CD4, or plasma HIV RNA, which suggests a practice effect. The impact of a practice effect after 6 months emphasizes the need for a control group in HIV studies that measure intervention effects using neurocognitive tests similar to ours.

Haemoglobin and anaemia in the SMART study.

BACKGROUND: Data from randomized trials on the development of anaemia after interruption of therapy are not well-described. METHODS: A total of 2,248 patients from the SMART study were included. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate development of new (≤12 mg/dl for females and ≤14 mg/dl for males) or worsening (≤8 mg/dl if anaemic at randomization) anaemia and Poisson regression analyses to explore the relationship between anaemia and the development of AIDS, death or non-AIDS events. RESULTS: Overall, 759 patients developed new or worsening anaemia: 420/1,106 (38.0%) in the drug conservation (DC) arm and 339/1127 (30.1%) in the viral suppression (VS) arm (P<0.0001). At 4 months after randomization, patients in the DC arm had a significantly increased risk of developing new or worsening anaemia (adjusted relative hazard 1.56, 95% CI 1.28-1.89). Currently anaemic patients had an increased incidence of AIDS (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.31, 95% CI 1.34-3.98), death (adjusted IRR 2.19, 95% CI 1.23-3.87) and non-AIDS events (adjusted IRR 2.98, 95% CI 2.01-4.40) compared to non-anaemic patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who interrupted combination antiretroviral therapy had a higher risk of new or worsening anaemia. Anaemic patients had a higher incidence of AIDS, non-AIDS defining events or deaths, possibly due to deteriorating health and subclinical disease.

Immunodeficiency and the risk of serious clinical endpoints in a well studied cohort of treated HIV-infected patients.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relative predictive value of CD4(+) metrics for serious clinical endpoints. DESIGN: Observational. METHODS: Patients (3012; 20 317 person-years) from control arms of ESPRIT and SILCAAT were followed prospectively. We used Cox regression to identify CD4(+) metrics (latest, baseline and nadir CD4(+) cell count, latest CD4(+)%, time spent with CD4(+) count below certain thresholds and CD4(+) slopes) independently predictive of all-cause mortality, non-AIDS deaths, non-AIDS (cardiovascular, hepatic, renal and non-AIDS malignancy) and AIDS events. Akaike information criteria (AIC) were calculated for each model. Significant metrics (P < 0.05) were then additionally adjusted for latest CD4(+) cell count. RESULTS: Non-AIDS deaths occurred at a higher rate than AIDS deaths [rate ratio: 6.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.1-8.1], and non-AIDS events likewise (rate ratio: 1.72, 95% CI 1.65-1.79). Latest CD4(+) cell count was strongly predictive of lower risk of death (hazard ratio per log2 rise: 0.48, 95% CI 0.43-0.54), with lowest AIC of all metrics. CD4(+) slope over seven visits, after additional adjustment for latest CD4(+) cell count, was the only metric to be an independent predictor for all-cause (hazard ratio for slope <-10 cells/microl per month vs. 0 +/- 10: 3.04, 95% CI 1.98-4.67) and non-AIDS deaths (hazard ratio for slope <-10 cells/microl per month vs. 0 +/- 10: 2.62, 95% CI 1.62-4.22). Latest CD4(+) cell count (per log(2) rise) was the best predictor across all four endpoints and predicted hepatic (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% CI 0.33-0.63) and renal events (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% CI 0.21-0.70), but not cardiovascular events (hazard ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.77-1.43) or non-AIDS cancers (hazard ratio 0.78, 95% CI 0.59-1.03). CONCLUSION: Latest CD4(+) cell count is the best predictor of serious endpoints. CD4(+) slope independently predicts all-cause and non-AIDS deaths.