A dynamical computational model of theta generation in hippocampal circuits to study theta-gamma oscillations during neurostimulation.

Neurostimulation of the hippocampal formation has shown promising results for modulating memory but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. In particular, the effects on hippocampal theta-nested gamma oscillations and theta phase reset, which are both crucial for memory processes, are unknown. Moreover, these effects cannot be investigated using current computational models, which consider theta oscillations with a fixed amplitude and phase velocity. Here, we developed a novel computational model that includes the medial septum, represented as a set of abstract Kuramoto oscillators producing a dynamical theta rhythm with phase reset, and the hippocampal formation, composed of biophysically realistic neurons and able to generate theta-nested gamma oscillations under theta drive. We showed that, for theta inputs just below the threshold to induce self-sustained theta-nested gamma oscillations, a single stimulation pulse could switch the network behavior from non-oscillatory to a state producing sustained oscillations. Next, we demonstrated that, for a weaker theta input, pulse train stimulation at the theta frequency could transiently restore seemingly physiological oscillations. Importantly, the presence of phase reset influenced whether these two effects depended on the phase at which stimulation onset was delivered, which has practical implications for designing neurostimulation protocols that are triggered by the phase of ongoing theta oscillations. This novel model opens new avenues for studying the effects of neurostimulation on the hippocampal formation. Furthermore, our hybrid approach that combines different levels of abstraction could be extended in future work to other neural circuits that produce dynamical brain rhythms.

Scattered tree death contributes to substantial forest loss in California.

In recent years, large-scale tree mortality events linked to global change have occurred around the world. Current forest monitoring methods are crucial for identifying mortality hotspots, but systematic assessments of isolated or scattered dead trees over large areas are needed to reduce uncertainty on the actual extent of tree mortality. Here, we mapped individual dead trees in California using sub-meter resolution aerial photographs from 2020 and deep learning-based dead tree detection. We identified 91.4 million dead trees over 27.8 million hectares of vegetated areas (16.7-24.7% underestimation bias when compared to field data). Among these, a total of 19.5 million dead trees appeared isolated, and 60% of all dead trees occurred in small groups ( ≤ 3 dead trees within a 30 × 30 m grid), which is largely undetected by other state-level monitoring methods. The widespread mortality of individual trees impacts the carbon budget and sequestration capacity of California forests and can be considered a threat to forest health and a fuel source for future wildfires.

Thresholds for persistent leaf photochemical damage predict plant drought resilience in a tropical rainforest.

Water stress can cause declines in plant function that persist after rehydration. Recent work has defined 'resilience' traits characterizing leaf resistance to persistent damage from drought, but whether these traits predict resilience in whole-plant function is unknown. It is also unknown whether the coordination between resilience and 'resistance' - the ability to maintain function during drought - observed globally occurs within ecosystems. For eight rainforest species, we dehydrated and subsequently rehydrated leaves, and measured water stress thresholds for declines in rehydration capacity and maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv /Fm ). We tested correlations with embolism resistance and dry season water potentials (ΨMD ), and calculated safety margins for damage (ΨMD - thresholds) and tested correlations with drought resilience in sap flow and growth. Ψ thresholds for persistent declines in Fv /Fm , indicating resilience, were positively correlated with ΨMD and thresholds for leaf vein embolism. Safety margins for persistent declines in Fv /Fm , but not rehydration capacity, were positively correlated with drought resilience in sap flow. Correlations between resistance and resilience suggest that species' differences in performance during drought are perpetuated after drought, potentially accelerating shifts in forest composition. Resilience to photochemical damage emerged as a promising functional trait to characterize whole-plant drought resilience.

Neuroprosthetics: from sensorimotor to cognitive disorders.

Neuroprosthetics is a multidisciplinary field at the interface between neurosciences and biomedical engineering, which aims at replacing or modulating parts of the nervous system that get disrupted in neurological disorders or after injury. Although neuroprostheses have steadily evolved over the past 60 years in the field of sensory and motor disorders, their application to higher-order cognitive functions is still at a relatively preliminary stage. Nevertheless, a recent series of proof-of-concept studies suggest that electrical neuromodulation strategies might also be useful in alleviating some cognitive and memory deficits, in particular in the context of dementia. Here, we review the evolution of neuroprosthetics from sensorimotor to cognitive disorders, highlighting important common principles such as the need for neuroprosthetic systems that enable multisite bidirectional interactions with the nervous system.

Mapping threatened canga ecosystems in the Brazilian savanna using U-Net deep learning segmentation and Sentinel-2 images: a first step toward conservation planning / Mapeamento de ecossistemas de canga ameaçados no Cerrado brasileiro utilizando deep learning segmentação U-Net e imagens Sentinel-2: um primeiro passo para o planejamento de conservação

Abstract Canga ecosystems are iron-rich habitats and pose a challenge for conservation and environmental governance in Brazil. They support high levels of biodiversity and endemism and, at the same time, have suffered intense losses and degradation due to large-scale iron ore mining. The Peixe Bravo River Valley in the Brazilian savanna is one of the last natural canga areas that has yet to face the irreversible impacts of mining. However, there are vast gaps in data on the vegetation cover, location, spatial distribution, and area of occurrence of this ecosystem. Therefore, more information is needed on the appropriate scale, without which it is difficult to establish conservation planning and strategies to prevent, mitigate or compensate for impacts on canga ecosystems. In this study, we provide the first map of canga ecosystems in Brazil using the U-Net deep learning model and Sentinel-2 images. In addition, we estimate the degree of direct threat faced by ecosystems due to the spatial overlap of the mapped cangas and the location of mining concession areas for iron ore exploitation. The deep learning algorithm identified and segmented 762 canga patches (overall accuracy of 98.5%) in an area of 30,000 ha in the Peixe Bravo River Valley, demonstrating the high predictive power of the mapping approach. We conclude that the direct threat to canga ecosystems is high since 99.6% of the observed canga patches are included in mining concession areas. We also highlight that the knowledge acquired about the distribution of cangas through the application of an effective method of artificial intelligence and the use of open-source satellite images is especially important for supporting conservation strategies and environmental public policies.

Resumo Os ecossistemas de Canga, habitats com elevadas concentrações de ferro, são um desafio para conservação e governança ambiental no Brasil. Eles sustentam uma alta biodiversidade e endemismo, e sofreram intensas perdas e degradações de áreas naturais devido à mineração de ferro em larga escala. O Vale do Rio Peixe Bravo, localizado no Cerrado brasileiro, é uma das últimas regiões com ecossistemas de canga que ainda não sofreu impactos irreversíveis da mineração. Mas ainda há ausência de dados sobre a cobertura vegetal, localização, distribuição geográfica e a área de ocorrência desse ecossistema. Portanto, a ausência de informações em escala adequada dificulta o planejamento em conservação e as estratégias para prevenir, mitigar ou compensar os impactos nos ecossistemas de canga. Neste estudo, nós fornecemos o primeiro mapa de ecossistemas de canga no Brasil elaborado a partir de deep learning segmentação U-Net e imagens de satélite Sentinel-2. Além disso, nós estimamos o grau de ameaça direta dos ecossistemas devido a sobreposição espacial das manchas de cangas preditas e a localização dos títulos de concessão minerária para exploração do minério de ferro. O algoritmo de aprendizado profundo identificou 762 manchas de canga (acurácia acima de 98,5%) em uma área de 30.000 ha no Vale do Rio Peixe Bravo, demonstrando o alto poder preditivo do método de mapeamento. Nós estimamos que há um alto grau de ameaça direta aos ecossistemas de canga, uma vez que 99,6% das manchas de cangas preditas estão incluídas em áreas de concessão de mineração. Nós também destacamos que o conhecimento adquirido sobre a distribuição das cangas por meio da aplicação de um método eficaz de inteligência artificial e do uso de imagens de satélite de código aberto é especialmente importante para apoiar estratégias de conservação e políticas públicas ambientais.

The neurons that restore walking after paralysis.

A spinal cord injury interrupts pathways from the brain and brainstem that project to the lumbar spinal cord, leading to paralysis. Here we show that spatiotemporal epidural electrical stimulation (EES) of the lumbar spinal cord1-3 applied during neurorehabilitation4,5 (EESREHAB) restored walking in nine individuals with chronic spinal cord injury. This recovery involved a reduction in neuronal activity in the lumbar spinal cord of humans during walking. We hypothesized that this unexpected reduction reflects activity-dependent selection of specific neuronal subpopulations that become essential for a patient to walk after spinal cord injury. To identify these putative neurons, we modelled the technological and therapeutic features underlying EESREHAB in mice. We applied single-nucleus RNA sequencing6-9 and spatial transcriptomics10,11 to the spinal cords of these mice to chart a spatially resolved molecular atlas of recovery from paralysis. We then employed cell type12,13 and spatial prioritization to identify the neurons involved in the recovery of walking. A single population of excitatory interneurons nested within intermediate laminae emerged. Although these neurons are not required for walking before spinal cord injury, we demonstrate that they are essential for the recovery of walking with EES following spinal cord injury. Augmenting the activity of these neurons phenocopied the recovery of walking enabled by EESREHAB, whereas ablating them prevented the recovery of walking that occurs spontaneously after moderate spinal cord injury. We thus identified a recovery-organizing neuronal subpopulation that is necessary and sufficient to regain walking after paralysis. Moreover, our methodology establishes a framework for using molecular cartography to identify the neurons that produce complex behaviours.

The flowering of Atlantic Forest Pleroma trees.

Mapping the spatial distribution of a plant is a current challenge in ecology. Here, a convolutional neural network (CNN) and 33,798 Sentinel-2 satellite images were used to detect and map forest stands dominated by trees of the genus Pleroma by their magenta-to-deep-purple blossoms in the entire Brazilian Atlantic Forest domain, from June 2016 to July 2020. The Pleroma genus, known for its pioneer behaviour, was detected in an area representing 10.8% of the Atlantic Forest, associated negatively with temperature and positively with elevation, slope, tree cover and precipitation. The detection of another genus by the model, 18% of all the detections contained only pink blooming Handroanthus trees, highlighted that botanical identification from space must be taken with caution, particularly outside the known distribution range of the species. The Pleroma blossom seasonality occurred over a period of ~5-6 months centered on the March equinox and populations with distinct blossom timings were found. Our results indicate that in the Atlantic Forest, the remaining natural forest is less diverse than expected but is at least recovering from degradation. Our study suggests a method to produce ecological-domain scale maps of tree genera and species based on their blossoms that could be used for tree studies and biodiversity assessments.

MRI-Compatible and Conformal Electrocorticography Grids for Translational Research.

Intraoperative electrocorticography (ECoG) captures neural information from the surface of the cerebral cortex during surgeries such as resections for intractable epilepsy and tumors. Current clinical ECoG grids come in evenly spaced, millimeter-sized electrodes embedded in silicone rubber. Their mechanical rigidity and fixed electrode spatial resolution are common shortcomings reported by the surgical teams. Here, advances in soft neurotechnology are leveraged to manufacture conformable subdural, thin-film ECoG grids, and evaluate their suitability for translational research. Soft grids with 0.2 to 10 mm electrode pitch and diameter are embedded in 150 µm silicone membranes. The soft grids are compatible with surgical handling and can be folded to safely interface hidden cerebral surface such as the Sylvian fold in human cadaveric models. It is found that the thin-film conductor grids do not generate diagnostic-impeding imaging artefacts (<1 mm) nor adverse local heating within a standard 3T clinical magnetic resonance imaging scanner. Next, the ability of the soft grids to record subdural neural activity in minipigs acutely and two weeks postimplantation is validated. Taken together, these results suggest a promising future alternative to current stiff electrodes and may enable the future adoption of soft ECoG grids in translational research and ultimately in clinical settings.

Neuroprosthetic baroreflex controls haemodynamics after spinal cord injury.

Spinal cord injury (SCI) induces haemodynamic instability that threatens survival1-3, impairs neurological recovery4,5, increases the risk of cardiovascular disease6,7, and reduces quality of life8,9. Haemodynamic instability in this context is due to the interruption of supraspinal efferent commands to sympathetic circuits located in the spinal cord10, which prevents the natural baroreflex from controlling these circuits to adjust peripheral vascular resistance. Epidural electrical stimulation (EES) of the spinal cord has been shown to compensate for interrupted supraspinal commands to motor circuits below the injury11, and restored walking after paralysis12. Here, we leveraged these concepts to develop EES protocols that restored haemodynamic stability after SCI. We established a preclinical model that enabled us to dissect the topology and dynamics of the sympathetic circuits, and to understand how EES can engage these circuits. We incorporated these spatial and temporal features into stimulation protocols to conceive a clinical-grade biomimetic haemodynamic regulator that operates in a closed loop. This 'neuroprosthetic baroreflex' controlled haemodynamics for extended periods of time in rodents, non-human primates and humans, after both acute and chronic SCI. We will now conduct clinical trials to turn the neuroprosthetic baroreflex into a commonly available therapy for people with SCI.

Large-scale variations in the dynamics of Amazon forest canopy gaps from airborne lidar data and opportunities for tree mortality estimates.

We report large-scale estimates of Amazonian gap dynamics using a novel approach with large datasets of airborne light detection and ranging (lidar), including five multi-temporal and 610 single-date lidar datasets. Specifically, we (1) compared the fixed height and relative height methods for gap delineation and established a relationship between static and dynamic gaps (newly created gaps); (2) explored potential environmental/climate drivers explaining gap occurrence using generalized linear models; and (3) cross-related our findings to mortality estimates from 181 field plots. Our findings suggest that static gaps are significantly correlated to dynamic gaps and can inform about structural changes in the forest canopy. Moreover, the relative height outperformed the fixed height method for gap delineation. Well-defined and consistent spatial patterns of dynamic gaps were found over the Amazon, while also revealing the dynamics of areas never sampled in the field. The predominant pattern indicates 20-35% higher gap dynamics at the west and southeast than at the central-east and north. These estimates were notably consistent with field mortality patterns, but they showed 60% lower magnitude likely due to the predominant detection of the broken/uprooted mode of death. While topographic predictors did not explain gap occurrence, the water deficit, soil fertility, forest flooding and degradation were key drivers of gap variability at the regional scale. These findings highlight the importance of lidar in providing opportunities for large-scale gap dynamics and tree mortality monitoring over the Amazon.

Mapping Atlantic rainforest degradation and regeneration history with indicator species using convolutional network.

The Atlantic rainforest of Brazil is one of the global terrestrial hotspots of biodiversity. Despite having undergone large scale deforestation, forest cover has shown signs of increases in the last decades. Here, to understand the degradation and regeneration history of Atlantic rainforest remnants near São Paulo, we combine a unique dataset of very high resolution images from Worldview-2 and Worldview-3 (0.5 and 0.3m spatial resolution, respectively), georeferenced aerial photographs from 1962 and use a deep learning method called U-net to map (i) the forest cover and changes and (ii) two pioneer tree species, Cecropia hololeuca and Tibouchina pulchra. For Tibouchina pulchra, all the individuals were mapped in February, when the trees undergo mass-flowering with purple and pink blossoms. Additionally, elevation data at 30m spatial resolution from NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) and annual mean climate variables (Terraclimate datasets at ∼ 4km of spatial resolution) were used to analyse the forest and species distributions. We found that natural forests are currently more frequently found on south-facing slopes, likely because of geomorphology and past land use, and that Tibouchina is restricted to the wetter part of the region (southern part), which annually receives at least 1600 mm of precipitation. Tibouchina pulchra was found to clearly indicate forest regeneration as almost all individuals were found within or adjacent to forests regrown after 1962. By contrast, Cecropia hololeuca was found to indicate older disturbed forests, with all individuals almost exclusively found in forest fragments already present in 1962. At the regional scale, using the dominance maps of both species, we show that at least 4.3% of the current region's natural forests have regrown after 1962 (Tibouchina dominated, ∼ 4757 ha) and that ∼ 9% of the old natural forests have experienced significant disturbance (Cecropia dominated).

Temperature rising would slow down tropical forest dynamic in the Guiana Shield.

Increasing evidence shows that the functioning of the tropical forest biome is intimately related to the climate variability with some variables such as annual precipitation, temperature or seasonal water stress identified as key drivers of ecosystem dynamics. How tropical tree communities will respond to the future climate change is hard to predict primarily because several demographic processes act together to shape the forest ecosystem general behavior. To overcome this limitation, we used a joint individual-based model to simulate, over the next century, a tropical forest community experiencing the climate change expected in the Guiana Shield. The model is climate dependent: temperature, precipitation and water stress are used as predictors of the joint growth and mortality rates. We ran simulations for the next century using predictions of the IPCC 5AR, building three different climate scenarios (optimistic RCP2.6, intermediate, pessimistic RCP8.5) and a control (current climate). The basal area, above-ground fresh biomass, quadratic diameter, tree growth and mortality rates were then computed as summary statistics to characterize the resulting forest ecosystem. Whatever the scenario, all ecosystem process and structure variables exhibited decreasing values as compared to the control. A sensitivity analysis identified the temperature as the strongest climate driver of this behavior, highlighting a possible temperature-driven drop of 40% in average forest growth. This conclusion is alarming, as temperature rises have been consensually predicted by all climate scenarios of the IPCC 5AR. Our study highlights the potential slow-down danger that tropical forests will face in the Guiana Shield during the next century.

Electrical spinal cord stimulation must preserve proprioception to enable locomotion in humans with spinal cord injury.

Epidural electrical stimulation (EES) of the spinal cord restores locomotion in animal models of spinal cord injury but is less effective in humans. Here we hypothesized that this interspecies discrepancy is due to interference between EES and proprioceptive information in humans. Computational simulations and preclinical and clinical experiments reveal that EES blocks a significant amount of proprioceptive input in humans, but not in rats. This transient deafferentation prevents modulation of reciprocal inhibitory networks involved in locomotion and reduces or abolishes the conscious perception of leg position. Consequently, continuous EES can only facilitate locomotion within a narrow range of stimulation parameters and is unable to provide meaningful locomotor improvements in humans without rehabilitation. Simulations showed that burst stimulation and spatiotemporal stimulation profiles mitigate the cancellation of proprioceptive information, enabling robust control over motor neuron activity. This demonstrates the importance of stimulation protocols that preserve proprioceptive information to facilitate walking with EES.

Targeted neurotechnology restores walking in humans with spinal cord injury.

Spinal cord injury leads to severe locomotor deficits or even complete leg paralysis. Here we introduce targeted spinal cord stimulation neurotechnologies that enabled voluntary control of walking in individuals who had sustained a spinal cord injury more than four years ago and presented with permanent motor deficits or complete paralysis despite extensive rehabilitation. Using an implanted pulse generator with real-time triggering capabilities, we delivered trains of spatially selective stimulation to the lumbosacral spinal cord with timing that coincided with the intended movement. Within one week, this spatiotemporal stimulation had re-established adaptive control of paralysed muscles during overground walking. Locomotor performance improved during rehabilitation. After a few months, participants regained voluntary control over previously paralysed muscles without stimulation and could walk or cycle in ecological settings during spatiotemporal stimulation. These results establish a technological framework for improving neurological recovery and supporting the activities of daily living after spinal cord injury.

Long-term functionality of a soft electrode array for epidural spinal cord stimulation in a minipig model.

Long-term biointegration of man-made neural interfaces is influenced by the mechanical properties of the implant materials. Substantial experimental work currently aims at replacing conventional hard implant materials with soft alternatives that can favour a lower immune response. Here we assess the performance of a soft electrode array implanted in the spinal epidural space of a minipig model for a period of 6 months. The electrode array includes platinum-silicone electrode contacts and elastic thin-film gold interconnects embedded in silicone. textbfIn-vivo electrode impedance and voltage transients were monitored over time. Following implantation, epidural stimulation produced muscle-specific evoked potentials and visible muscle contractions. Over time, postoperative and stimulation induced changes in electrode impedance were observed. Such trends provide a basis for future technological improvements aiming at ensuring the stability of soft implantable electrodes for neural interfacing.

Vulnerability of Amazonian forests to repeated droughts.

Extreme droughts have been recurrent in the Amazon over the past decades, causing socio-economic and environmental impacts. Here, we investigate the vulnerability of Amazonian forests, both undisturbed and human-modified, to repeated droughts. We defined vulnerability as a measure of (i) exposure, which is the degree to which these ecosystems were exposed to droughts, and (ii) its sensitivity, measured as the degree to which the drought has affected remote sensing-derived forest greenness. The exposure was calculated by assessing the meteorological drought, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD), which is related to vegetation water stress, from 1981 to 2016. The sensitivity was assessed based on the enhanced vegetation index anomalies (AEVI), derived from the newly available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC) product, from 2003 to 2016, which is indicative of forest's photosynthetic capacity. We estimated that 46% of the Brazilian Amazon biome was under severe to extreme drought in 2015/2016 as measured by the SPI, compared with 16% and 8% for the 2009/2010 and 2004/2005 droughts, respectively. The most recent drought (2015/2016) affected the largest area since the drought of 1981. Droughts tend to increase the variance of the photosynthetic capacity of Amazonian forests as based on the minimum and maximum AEVI analysis. However, the area showing a reduction in photosynthetic capacity prevails in the signal, reaching more than 400 000 km2 of forests, four orders of magnitude larger than areas with AEVI enhancement. Moreover, the intensity of the negative AEVI steadily increased from 2005 to 2016. These results indicate that during the analysed period drought impacts were being exacerbated through time. Forests in the twenty-first century are becoming more vulnerable to droughts, with larger areas intensively and negatively responding to water shortage in the region.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Configuration of electrical spinal cord stimulation through real-time processing of gait kinematics.

Epidural electrical stimulation (EES) of the spinal cord and real-time processing of gait kinematics are powerful methods for the study of locomotion and the improvement of motor control after injury or in neurological disorders. Here, we describe equipment and surgical procedures that can be used to acquire chronic electromyographic (EMG) recordings from leg muscles and to implant targeted spinal cord stimulation systems that remain stable up to several months after implantation in rats and nonhuman primates. We also detail how to exploit these implants to configure electrical spinal cord stimulation policies that allow control over the degree of extension and flexion of each leg during locomotion. This protocol uses real-time processing of gait kinematics and locomotor performance, and can be configured within a few days. Once configured, stimulation bursts are delivered over specific spinal cord locations with precise timing that reproduces the natural spatiotemporal activation of motoneurons during locomotion. These protocols can also be easily adapted for the safe implantation of systems in the vicinity of the spinal cord and to conduct experiments involving real-time movement feedback and closed-loop controllers.

21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions.

Tropical carbon emissions are largely derived from direct forest clearing processes. Yet, emissions from drought-induced forest fires are, usually, not included in national-level carbon emission inventories. Here we examine Brazilian Amazon drought impacts on fire incidence and associated forest fire carbon emissions over the period 2003-2015. We show that despite a 76% decline in deforestation rates over the past 13 years, fire incidence increased by 36% during the 2015 drought compared to the preceding 12 years. The 2015 drought had the largest ever ratio of active fire counts to deforestation, with active fires occurring over an area of 799,293 km2. Gross emissions from forest fires (989 ± 504 Tg CO2 year-1) alone are more than half as great as those from old-growth forest deforestation during drought years. We conclude that carbon emission inventories intended for accounting and developing policies need to take account of substantial forest fire emissions not associated to the deforestation process.

Climatic and anthropogenic drivers of northern Amazon fires during the 2015-2016 El Niño event.

The strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event that occurred in 2015-2016 caused extreme drought in the northern Brazilian Amazon, especially in the state of Roraima, increasing fire occurrence. Here we map the extent of precipitation and fire anomalies and quantify the effects of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on fire occurrence during the 2015-2016 dry season (from December 2015 to March 2016) in the state of Roraima. To achieve these objectives we first estimated the spatial pattern of precipitation anomalies, based on long-term data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission), and the fire anomaly, based on MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active fire detections during the referred period. Then, we integrated climatic and anthropogenic drivers in a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model to quantify fire probability, assessing (1) the model accuracy during the 2015-2016 and the 2016-2017 dry seasons; (2) the relative importance of each predictor variable on the model predictive performance; and (3) the response curves, showing how each environmental variable affects the fire probability. Approximately 59% (132,900 km2 ) of the study area was exposed to precipitation anomalies ≤-1 standard deviation (SD) in January and ~48% (~106,800 km2 ) in March. About 38% (86,200 km2 ) of the study area experienced fire anomalies ≥1 SD in at least one month between December 2015 and March 2016. The distance to roads and the direct ENSO effect on fire occurrence were the two most influential variables on model predictive performance. Despite the improvement of governmental actions of fire prevention and firefighting in Roraima since the last intense ENSO event (1997-1998), we show that fire still gets out of control in the state during extreme drought events. Our results indicate that if no prevention actions are undertaken, future road network expansion and a climate-induced increase in water stress will amplify fire occurrence in the northern Amazon, even in its humid dense forests. As an additional outcome of our analysis, we conclude that the model and the data we used may help to guide on-the-ground fire-prevention actions and firefighting planning and therefore minimize fire-related ecosystems degradation, economic losses and carbon emissions in Roraima.

Climate drivers of the Amazon forest greening.

Our limited understanding of the climate controls on tropical forest seasonality is one of the biggest sources of uncertainty in modeling climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. Combining leaf production, litterfall and climate observations from satellite and ground data in the Amazon forest, we show that seasonal variation in leaf production is largely triggered by climate signals, specifically, insolation increase (70.4% of the total area) and precipitation increase (29.6%). Increase of insolation drives leaf growth in the absence of water limitation. For these non-water-limited forests, the simultaneous leaf flush occurs in a sufficient proportion of the trees to be observed from space. While tropical cycles are generally defined in terms of dry or wet season, we show that for a large part of Amazonia the increase in insolation triggers the visible progress of leaf growth, just like during spring in temperate forests. The dependence of leaf growth initiation on climate seasonality may result in a higher sensitivity of these ecosystems to changes in climate than previously thought.