Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan.

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop's yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha-1) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.

Nitrogen and plant population change radiation capture and utilization capacity of sunflower in semi-arid environment.

The combination of nitrogen and plant population expresses the spatial distribution of crop plants. The spatial distribution influences canopy structure and development, radiation capture, accumulated intercepted radiation (Sa), radiation use efficiency (RUE), and subsequently dry matter production. We hypothesized that the sunflower crop at higher plant populations and nitrogen (N) rates would achieve early canopy cover, capture more radiant energy, utilize radiation energy more efficiently, and ultimately increase economic yield. To investigate the above hypothesis, we examined the influences of leaf area index (LAI) at different plant populations (83,333, 66,666, and 55,555 plants ha-1) and N rates (90, 120, and 150 kg ha-1) on radiation interception (Fi), photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) accumulation (Sa), total dry matter (TDM), achene yield (AY), and RUE of sunflower. The experimental work was conducted during 2012 and 2013 on sandy loam soil in Punjab, Pakistan. The sunflower crop captured more than 96% of incident radiant energy (mean of all treatments), 98% with a higher plant population (83,333 plants ha-1), and 97% with higher N application (150 kg ha-1) at the fifth harvest (60 days after sowing) during both study years. The plant population of 83,333 plants ha-1 with 150 kg N ha-1 ominously promoted crop, RUE, and finally productivity of sunflower (AY and TDM). Sunflower canopy (LAI) showed a very close and strong association with Fi (R 2 = 0.99 in both years), PAR (R 2 = 0.74 and 0.79 in 2012 and 2013, respectively), TDM (R 2 = 0.97 in 2012 and 0.91 in 2013), AY (R 2 = 0.95 in both years), RUE for TDM (RUETDM) (R 2 = 0.63 and 0.71 in 2012 and 2013, respectively), and RUE for AY (RUEAY) (R 2 = 0.88 and 0.87 in 2012 and 2013, respectively). Similarly, AY (R 2 = 0.73 in 2012 and 0.79 in 2013) and TDM (R 2 = 0.75 in 2012 and 0.84 in 2013) indicated significant dependence on PAR accumulation of sunflower. High temperature during the flowering stage in 2013 shortened the crop maturity duration, which reduced the LAI, leaf area duration (LAD), crop growth rate (CGR), TDM, AY, Fi, Sa, and RUE of sunflower. Our results clearly revealed that RUE was enhanced as plant population and N application rates were increased and biomass assimilation in semi-arid environments varied with radiation capture capacity of sunflower.