Tobacco packaging littering behaviours among Australian adults who smoke: findings from cross-sectional and observational studies to inform the implementation of cigarette pack inserts.

BACKGROUND: Cigarette pack inserts are small cards that highlight the benefits of quitting and promote use of smoking cessation support. With evidence from Canada that they increase self-efficacy to quit, quit attempts and sustained cessation, inserts are set to be introduced into tobacco packs sold in Australia. Some people have expressed concern that the introduction of inserts may create more litter if incorrectly disposed of on pack-opening. METHODS: We used a cross-sectional survey to assess self-reported pack-opening location and waste disposal behaviours of people who smoke to determine the potential for littering to occur when tobacco packs are first opened. We also visited a sample of supermarkets, convenience stores and tobacconists located throughout Melbourne, Australia, to discreetly collect observational data regarding pack-opening and waste disposal behaviours at the point of purchase. RESULTS: Among participants in the cross-sectional study (N=369), the majority reported that they opened their most recent tobacco pack at home (70.9%) where there is little potential for littering, and this proportion was higher among those who smoke daily (78.6%) and men (74.3%). Self-reported behaviours that could result in littering were rare; 1.0% reported that they left tobacco packaging where they believed it would be collected for disposal. Of the 128 individuals observed at the point of purchase across 46 stores, 96.9% did not open the tobacco product immediately after purchase. One incident of littering was observed (0.8%). CONCLUSION: The introduction of cigarette pack inserts in Australia is unlikely to create a substantial amount of additional litter.

Tobacco Constituents, Flavorants, and Paper Permeability of Factory-Made and Roll-Your-Own Cigarettes on the Australian Market.

INTRODUCTION: Roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco is a popular choice in Australia, with some people who smoke finding these products more attractive than factory-made cigarettes (FMC). Differences in visual and tactile properties and in the feel and taste of the smoke may contribute to this attractiveness. These differences may be driven by variation in tobacco constituents and wrapping paper permeability. However, to date, there has been no comparison of RYO and FMC products on the Australian market. AIMS AND METHODS: Chemical constituents, pH, flavorants, and paper permeability were compared in unburned RYO tobacco and tobacco from FMC. RYO and FMC products from matched brands were compared, as were products from the most popular FMC and RYO brands on the Australian market in 2018. RESULTS: RYO tobacco had higher moisture and humectant content (glycerol and propylene glycol) than FMC tobacco. RYO tobacco also had higher amounts of total and reducing sugars and lower nicotine when comparing the most popular brands. RYO papers were less permeable than FMC papers. Both RYO and FMC tobacco contained many chemicals identified as flavorants, including fourteen with known potential health risks. For most measured constituents and flavorants, RYO tobaccos had more in common with other RYO than FMC, with the commonalities remaining even when matched brands were compared. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of moisture, humectants, and sugars in Australian RYO tobacco compared to FMC may be increasing attractiveness of RYO by reducing the harsh taste of the smoke and increasing the moist feel of the tobacco. IMPLICATIONS: While price is the main factor driving the use of RYO tobacco, some people who smoke find these products more attractive. This study has shown that Australian RYO tobacco contains higher amounts of glycerol, propylene glycol, and sugars than FMC. These chemicals may be improving the taste of the tobacco, as well as creating a moist feel that is falsely perceived as indicating that the tobacco is "fresh" and "less chemically." Ironically, it may be that higher amounts of some added chemicals in RYO contribute to false perceptions of a more natural and less harmful product.

Public support for policies to phase out the retail sale of cigarettes in Australia: results from a nationally representative survey.

BACKGROUND: There is growing international interest in a goal once considered unthinkable: phasing out the retail sales of smoked tobacco products. In this study, we examined public support for phasing out sales and specific measures for moving towards a phase-out among a nationally representative sample of Australian adults. METHODS: In December 2019, we used a probability-based online panel, Life in Australia™, to survey n=1939 Australian adults (n=1874 included in analyses due to missing data). RESULTS: Almost two-thirds of respondents thought it would be 'a good thing' if there came a time when it was no longer legal to sell cigarettes in shops in Australia and only 16.7% thought it would be 'a bad thing'. After the concept of a phase-out was defined as removing a product from the Australian market over a set period, such as 5 years, but still allowing purchases online from overseas companies, 50.7% indicated support for such a phase-out and 61.8% thought it should happen within 10 years. Support was greater for specific measures such as licensing tobacco retailers (75.3%) and restricting sales to places children cannot enter (76.3%). Support tended to be consistent across demographic subgroups but was stronger among never and former smokers than among current smokers. CONCLUSIONS: There has been little public discussion in Australia about the goal of 1 day phasing out the retail sale of cigarettes. It is notable that such policies are reasonably well supported by the Australian public, with only minority opposition.

Optimising tobacco control campaigns within a changing media landscape and among priority populations.

Reviews published over the past decade confirm tobacco control campaigns can be effective for influencing adult and youth tobacco use behaviours, with strengthening evidence for high cost-effectiveness. Evidence is also accumulating for positive campaign effects on interpersonal discussions, social norms and policy support that can help motivate and sustain quitting and reduce uptake. Research needs over the next decade centre on the rapidly changing media environment and the equity of campaign effects among high smoking prevalence communities. The field needs specific evidence on: how to measure total campaign reach and frequency across the diverse range of media platforms and channels; the optimum mix of traditional, digital and social media to achieve behaviour change, especially among high smoking prevalence communities; the relative reach and impact of the wide variety of integrated, digital and social media message delivery methods; the relative effectiveness of messages that aim to build capacity to quit and optimum methods for combining motivational and capacity-building messages, especially for high prevalence groups who face additional barriers to staying quit; the ongoing effectiveness of traditional versus new versions of messages highlighting tobacco industry practices; the influence of e-cigarette use on tobacco control campaign effects; and the effectiveness of different types of campaigns aiming to prevent e-cigarette uptake and motivate e-cigarette cessation. Research is also needed to investigate the potential for campaigns to influence the public's understanding and support for endgame tobacco control policies and for campaign elements that may influence the social and environmental contexts surrounding smokers that support and maintain behaviour change.

Evidence of cushioning of tobacco tax increases in large retailers in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco companies may attempt to minimise the impact of tobacco tax increases on consumers by gradually passing on the price rise over several months. This study examined whether there was evidence of large Australian tobacco retailers engaging in this practice (known as cushioning) over a period including both routine indexation and large annual tobacco excise increases. METHODS: Advertised prices of nine factory-made cigarette (FMC) and nine roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) products were recorded from two stores monthly from December 2016 to December 2019. Per cent change in price from the previous month was analysed for FMC and RYO products, controlling for year, month, tobacco company and supermarket chain. RESULTS: Significant main effects of month were observed for FMC and RYO products (both p<0.001). Large, significant average increases in per cent change in price were observed in September for FMC (6.51%) and RYO (11.45%) products, the month of the annual excise increase and prices also significantly increased in October (FMC: 3.01%; RYO: 1.91%). Significant increases were also observed in the months after the March annual routine indexation: by 1.10% in May for FMC products and by 1.09% in April for RYO products. CONCLUSION: This study has demonstrated evidence of cushioning of tax increases of FMC and RYO products in large Australian supermarkets. The monthly per cent change in price significantly increased several months after routine excise indexation and in the 2 months following a large annual excise increase. Further research with a larger sample of products and stores is needed to confirm these findings.

Understanding the effectiveness of advertisements about the long-term harms of alcohol and low-risk drinking guidelines: A mediation analysis.

RATIONALE: Many people overestimate the amount of alcohol that increases their risk of harm and so may not perceive any need to change their drinking behaviour. Several countries have developed low-risk drinking guidelines, yet awareness of these guidelines remains low. Furthermore, mass media campaigns about alcohol-related harms may have limited impact if people do not perceive their current consumption as potentially harmful. Integrating drinking guidelines into media campaigns about alcohol's harms can concurrently provide drinkers with information about low-risk drinking levels and compelling reasons to comply. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to build understanding of the effectiveness of messages about the long-term harms of drinking and low-risk drinking guidelines, by testing the mediating effects of estimates of harmful drinking levels and attitudes towards drinking alcohol on subsequent intentions and behaviours. METHOD: In an online experiment conducted in 2016, n = 1156 Australian adult monthly drinkers were randomly assigned to view advertisements for non-alcohol products (NON-ALC; control), advertisements featuring long-term harms of alcohol (LTH), or LTH advertisements plus a guideline message (LTH + G). Immediately following exposure, we measured estimates of harmful drinking levels and attitudes towards drinking alcohol. One week later, we measured intentions to drink less and behavioural compliance with the guideline. RESULTS: Compared to NON-ALC advertisements, exposure to LTH + G advertisements increased (i) the proportion of respondents who correctly estimated harmful drinking levels, which in turn, strengthened intentions to drink less (42% of the total effect was mediated), and (ii) negative attitudes, which in turn, also increased intentions to drink less (35% mediated) and behavioural compliance (24% mediated). Compared to NON-ALC, LTH advertisements increased negative attitudes, which in turn strengthened intentions to drink less (53% mediated). CONCLUSIONS: When paired with effective alcohol harm reduction television advertisements, messages promoting low-risk drinking guidelines can increase drinkers' intentions to reduce their alcohol consumption and compliance with low-risk drinking guidelines.

Are anti-smoking social norms associated with tobacco control mass media campaigns, tax and policy changes? Findings from an Australian serial cross-sectional population study of smokers.

BACKGROUND: Anti-smoking social norms are associated with subsequent quitting behaviours. We examined if exposure to tobacco control advertisements and policy changes predict subjective (perceived disapproval of smoking among close family and friends) and internalised injunctive norms (embarrassed about telling others you are a smoker). METHODS: A serial cross-sectional population survey of Australian adult smokers (n=6649; 2012 to 2015). Logistic regression analyses examined associations of social norms with exposure to different types of tobacco control advertisements, tax increases and other tobacco control policies, adjusting for key demographic, smoking and media exposure covariates. Interaction analyses examined differences by age and socioeconomic status (SES). RESULTS: Greater past month exposure to predominantly fear-evoking advertisements was associated with increased odds of perceiving disapproval (per 1000 gross rating points: adjusted OR (AOR) 2.69, 95% CI: 1.34 to 5.39), while exposure to advertisements evoking multiple negative emotions (fear, guilt, sadness) reduced perceived disapproval (AOR 0.61, 95% CI: 0.42 to 0.87). Increased perceived disapproval was also associated with anticipation (AOR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.88), and implementation of a series of annual 12.5% tobacco tax rises (AOR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.94). Associations were consistent across age and SES. There were no associations nor subgroup interactions between advertisement exposure or policy changes and feeling embarrassed about telling others you are a smoker. CONCLUSION: Smokers' perceptions of family and friends' disapproval of their smoking was more common after exposure to fear-evoking tobacco control campaigns and after large tobacco tax increases were announced and implemented.

Australian smokers' experiences and perceptions of recessed and firm filter cigarettes.

BACKGROUND: While cigarette filter modifications have long been used to increase product appeal and assuage health concerns, tighter marketing restrictions, including plain packaging, have further spurred the growth of filter variants. We explored and assessed experiences and perceptions of smokers who had tried and/or currently use recessed filter cigarettes (RFCs) and firm filter cigarettes (FFCs). METHOD: In November 2018, we undertook eight exploratory focus groups of Australian adult factory-made cigarette smokers (total n=56). In July 2019, we surveyed 999 smokers aged 18-69 years to quantify ever and current use of these products and associated beliefs and sensory experiences. RESULTS: Focus group and survey findings were consistent. Among 988 smokers who had at least tried factory-made cigarettes, 28.9% had tried FFCs and 11.1% currently smoked these, while 36.4% had tried RFCs and 7.5% currently smoked these. Smokers in both studies believed these filters may reduce harm and that FFCs increase appeal. In the survey, 58.9% of RFC triers agreed these hide the filter's brown stain and 48.9% agreed that RFCs keep harmful substances away from the mouth. Similarly, 58.4% of FFC triers agreed these trap more harmful substances than standard filters. Relative to standard filter cigarettes, more smokers experienced FFCs and RFCs as feeling clean (p=0.03) and more current FFC users experienced these as feeling smooth (p=0.01). CONCLUSION: RFCs and FFCs undermine plain packaging legislation, which aims to reduce appeal and minimise misperceptions about the relative harms of different tobacco products. Like other filter modifications, these filter variants should be disallowed.

Comparing responses to public health and industry-funded alcohol harm reduction advertisements: an experimental study.

OBJECTIVES: Conduct a head-to-head experimental test of responses to alcohol harm reduction advertisements developed by alcohol industry Social Aspects/Public Relations Organisations (SAPROs) versus those developed by public health (PH) agencies. We hypothesised that, on average, SAPRO advertisements would be less effective at generating motivation (H1) and intentions to reduce alcohol consumption (H2) but more effective at generating positive perceptions of people who drink (H3). DESIGN: Online experiment with random assignment to condition. PARTICIPANTS: 2923 Australian adult weekly drinkers (49% high-risk drinkers) recruited from an opt-in online panel. INTERVENTIONS: Participants viewed 3 of 83 advertisements developed by PH agencies (n=2174) or 3 of 28 advertisements developed by SAPROs (n=749). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Participants reported their motivation to reduce the amount of alcohol consumed; behave responsibly and/or not get drunk; and limit their drinking around/never supply to minors, as well as intentions to avoid drinking alcohol completely; reduce the number of drinking occasions; and reduce the amount of alcohol consumed per occasion. Participants also reported their perceptions of people who drink alcohol on six success-related items and four fun-related items. RESULTS: Compared with drinkers exposed to PH advertisements, those exposed to SAPRO advertisements reported lower motivation to reduce the amount of alcohol consumed (ß=-0.091, 95% CI -0.171 to -0.010), and lower odds of intending to avoid alcohol completely (OR=0.77, 0.63 to 0.94) and to reduce the amount of alcohol consumed per occasion (OR=0.82, 0.69 to 0.97). SAPRO advertisements generated more favourable fun-related perceptions of drinkers (ß=0.095, 0.013 to 0.177). CONCLUSIONS: The alcohol harm reduction advertisements produced by alcohol industry SAPROs that were tested in this study were not as effective at generating motivation and intentions to reduce alcohol consumption as those developed by PH organisations. These findings raise questions as to whether SAPROs should play a role in alcohol harm reduction efforts.

Pathways to a cancer-free future: a protocol for modelled evaluations to minimise the future burden of colorectal cancer in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: With almost 50% of cases preventable and the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in place, colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prime candidate for investment to reduce the cancer burden. The challenge is determining effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality and their implementation through policy and practice. Pathways-Bowel is a multistage programme that aims to identify best-value investment in CRC control by integrating expert and end-user engagement; relevant evidence; modelled interventions to guide future investment; and policy-driven implementation of interventions using evidence-based methods. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Pathways-Bowel is an iterative work programme incorporating a calibrated and validated CRC natural history model for Australia (Policy1-Bowel) and assessing the health and cost outcomes and resource use of targeted interventions. Experts help identify and prioritise modelled evaluations of changing trends and interventions and critically assess results to advise on their real-world applicability. Where appropriate the results are used to support public policy change and make the case for optimal investment in specific CRC control interventions. Fourteen high-priority evaluations have been modelled or planned, including evaluations of CRC outcomes from the changing prevalence of modifiable exposures, including smoking and body fatness; potential benefits of daily aspirin intake as chemoprevention; increasing CRC incidence in people aged <50 years; increasing screening participation in the general and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; alternative screening technologies and modalities; and changes to follow-up surveillance protocols. Pathways-Bowel is a unique, comprehensive approach to evaluating CRC control; no prior body of work has assessed the relative benefits of a variety of interventions across CRC development and progression to produce a list of best-value investments. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval was not required as human participants were not involved. Findings are reported in a series of papers in peer-reviewed journals and presented at fora to engage the community and policymakers.

Smoking prevalence following tobacco tax increases in Australia between 2001 and 2017: an interrupted time-series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Building on substantial tobacco control action over the previous decade, Australia increased the taxes on tobacco by 25% without forewarning on April 30, 2010. Australia then became one of a few countries to pre-announce a series of increases in tobacco taxes, with annual 12·5% increases starting from December, 2013. We aimed to examine the effects of both tax increases on smoking prevalence. METHODS: By use of survey data from Australians aged 14 years and older in five capital cities, we did an interrupted time-series analysis to model the monthly prevalence of smoking (overall, of factory-made cigarettes [FMC], and of roll-your-own tobacco [RYO]), in the total sample and stratified by socioeconomic status subgroups. We measured outcomes in May, 2001-April, 2010; May, 2010-November, 2013; and December, 2013-April, 2017. FINDINGS: The 25% tax increase was associated with immediate (-0·745 percentage points; 95% CI -1·378 to -0·112) and sustained reductions in prevalence (monthly trend -0·023 percentage points; -0·044 to -0·003), which were driven by reductions in the prevalence of smoking of FMC. The prevalence of smoking of RYO increased between May, 2010, and November, 2013, after the 25% tax increase. At the start of the pre-announced annual 12·5% increases, we observed an immediate reduction in smoking (-0·997 percentage points; -1·632 to -0·362), followed by decreasing overall prevalence (monthly trend -0·044 percentage points; -0·063 to -0·026) due to ongoing decreases in the prevalence of FMC smoking and a cessation of increases in the prevalence of smoking of RYO. Immediate decreases in smoking and changing trends in the prevalence of smoking of RYO were most evident among groups with a lower socioeconomic status. INTERPRETATION: Large tax increases are effective in reducing smoking prevalence, both as a single increase without forewarning and as a pre-announced series of increases. However, taxes on tobacco are best structured to apply equally to FMC and RYO products. Tobacco control policies should prohibit price marketing that otherwise erodes the full impact of such tax increases. FUNDING: Cancer Council Victoria.

Long-term impact of plain packaging of cigarettes with larger graphic health warnings: findings from cross-sectional surveys of Australian adolescents between 2011 and 2017.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the long-term impact of plain packaging (PP) of cigarettes with larger graphic health warnings (HW) introduced in December 2012 on adolescents' relevant tobacco-related perceptions. METHODS: Cross-sectional school-based surveys of 12 to 17 year olds in 2011 (n=4413), 2013 (n=4423), 2014 (n=4576) and 2017 (n=4266). Students rated the character of four popular cigarette brands, indicated their agreement regarding brand differences in smoking ease, quitting, addictiveness, harmfulness and pack attractiveness and positive/negative perceptions of pack image. The frequency of students reading, attending to, thinking and talking about HW was assessed. Responses of students seeing cigarette packs in the previous 6 months (2011: 63%; 2013: 67%, 2014: 56%, 2017: 56%) were examined. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence declined from 2011 to 2017. Among students who had recently seen packs, cigarette packs were rated less positively and more negatively in 2017 than in 2011 (p<0.001) with ratings similar between 2013 and 2017. Positive character ratings for each brand reduced between 2011 and 2013 (ps<0.05) with further reductions between 2013 and 2017 (ps<0.05). Fewer students agreed, and more were uncertain, that brands differed in their smoking ease, addictiveness, harmfulness and pack attractiveness in 2017 than 2011. The frequency of students reading, attending, talking or thinking about HW did not change between 2011 and 2017. CONCLUSIONS: PP's initial impact in reducing adolescent's positive perceptions of cigarette packs and brand differences continued in the following years with tobacco packaging less appealing to young people in 2017 than 2011 and students more uncertain about brand differences.

Increasing bowel cancer screening participation: integrating population-wide, primary care and more targeted approaches.

OBJECTIVES: Participation in the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) is suboptimal. Given the program's enormous potential to save lives, Cancer Council Victoria has prioritised increased screening participation as part of its strategic plan. This paper describes the implementation, and evaluation where available, of Cancer Council Victoria programs to increase participation, supported by a mix of own organisation and Victorian state health department funding. Type of programs: At the population level, Cancer Council Victoria has delivered television-led mass media campaigns to motivate age-eligible individuals to complete and return their NBCSP kit. It has also delivered targeted awareness and education programs for underscreened populations including Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, people from culturally and linguistically diverse communities, and groups experiencing social disadvantage. Programs involving general practice have also been trialled to improve the knowledge and confidence of general practitioners (GPs) to discuss bowel screening with their patients, and to implement identification, reminder and follow-up systems to improve bowel screening participation. RESULTS: There is strong evidence to support the use of mass media public health campaigns, which have resulted in significant increases in screening kit return rates. Targeted education sessions with underscreened communities have led to increases in knowledge about bowel cancer screening, confidence to do the test and intention to participate in the NBCSP in communities where these sessions have been trialled. Early findings suggest that GP endorsement strategies are welcomed by patients and are an effective way to encourage NBCSP participation. System changes using patient information systems may be more challenging, given the inconsistent entry of NBCSP data. LESSONS LEARNT: Our work to date demonstrates that there is a strong case for regular, widespread mass media strategies to increase NBCSP participation. There is also evidence to support more tailored, complementary approaches with dedicated education programs for underscreened groups, and active and sustained engagement with underscreened communities and primary care providers to overcome personal, cultural and systems barriers to screening. Improved data capture capabilities are needed to better implement and evaluate the impact of future strategies to improve NBCSP participation.

Are Australians ready for warning labels, marketing bans and sugary drink taxes? Two cross-sectional surveys measuring support for policy responses to sugar-sweetened beverages.

OBJECTIVE: To assess public support for 10 potential policy initiatives to reduce sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. DESIGN: A 2014 historical data set, which employed a face-to-face survey in one Australian state (study 1), provided the basis for comparison with our 2017 nationally representative, cross-sectional, computer-assisted telephone interviewing population survey (study 2). PARTICIPANTS: Study 1: South Australians, 15+ years (n=2732); study 2: Australians, 18+ years (n=3430). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: levels of support for SSB-specific policy initiatives. For the 2017 national study (study 2), demographic characteristics, body mass index, knowledge of potential harms caused by consuming SSBs and SSB consumption were included in multivariable regression analyses. RESULTS: In 2017, all 10 potential policy initiatives received majority support (60%-88% either 'somewhat' or 'strongly' in favour). Initiatives with educative elements or focused on children received high support (>70%), with highest support observed for text warning labels on drink containers (88%) and government campaigns warning of adverse health effects (87%). Higher support was observed for SSB tax paired with using funds for obesity prevention (77%) than a stand-alone tax (60%). Support for policy initiatives was generally greater among those who believed SSB daily consumption could cause health problems in adults (4%-18% absolute difference) and/or in children (8%-26% absolute difference) and lower among SSB high consumers (7+ drinks per week; 9%-29% absolute difference). State-specific data comparison indicated increased support from 2014 to 2017 for taxation (42%vs55%; χ2=15.7, p<0.001) and graphic health warnings (52%vs68%; χ2=23.4. p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: There is strong public support for government action, particularly regulatory and educational interventions, to reduce SSB consumption, which appears to have increased since 2014. The findings suggest that framing policies as protecting children, presenting taxation of SSBs in conjunction with other obesity prevention initiatives and education focused on the harms associated with SSB consumption will increase support.

Hardening or softening? An observational study of changes to the prevalence of hardening indicators in Victoria, Australia, 2001-2016.

BACKGROUND: The hardening hypothesis predicts that as smoking prevalence declines, remaining smokers will be more heavily addicted to nicotine and/or less interested in quitting. We tested this hypothesis in a population exposed to a comprehensive tobacco control programme over a 16-year period. METHODS: Annual cross-sectional surveys randomly sampled adults (aged 26+) in the state of Victoria, Australia, between 2001 and 2016. Until 2010, participants were recruited through random digit dialling to landline telephones; from 2011, sampling frames also included mobile phones. Logistic regressions assessed changes over time in the prevalence of smoking and each hardening indicator; additional models examined interactions by sex, age, education and socioeconomic status. RESULTS: Smoking prevalence declined significantly between 2001 and 2016 (20.1%-13.0%), as did the prevalence of seven hardening indicators: daily smoking, heavy consumption, no quit attempt in the past 5 years or past 12 months, no intention to quit in the next 6 months or next 30 days, and happiness to keep smoking. In addition, the proportion of smokers defined as 'hardcore' decreased from 17.2% to 9.1%. On the whole, hardening indicators decreased to a similar extent among demographic subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: These results are inconsistent with the hardening hypothesis. Rather, they suggest that a comprehensive tobacco control programme that combines provision of cessation support to individual smokers with implementation of population-level interventions to drive all smokers towards quitting, can successfully reduce both smoking prevalence and levels of dependence and desire to keep smoking among the remaining population of smokers.

Impact of a mass media campaign on participation rates in a National Bowel Cancer Screening Program: a field experiment.

OBJECTIVES AND DESIGN: This field experiment aimed to compare bowel cancer screening participation rates prior to, during and after a mass media campaign promoting screening, and the extent to which a higher intensity campaign in one state led to higher screening rates compared with another state that received lower intensity campaign exposure. INTERVENTION: An 8-week television-led mass media campaign was launched in selected regions of Australia in mid-2014 to promote Australia's National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) that posts out immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) kits to the homes of age-eligible people. The campaign used paid 30-second television advertising in the entire state of Queensland but not at all in Western Australia. Other supportive campaign elements had national exposure, including print, 4-minute television advertorials, digital and online advertising. OUTCOME MEASURES: Monthly kit return and invite data from NBCSP (January 2012 to December 2014). Return rates were determined as completed kits returned for analysis out of the number of people invited to do the iFOBT test in the current and past 3 months in each state. RESULTS: Analyses adjusted for seasonality and the influence of other national campaigns. The number of kits returned for analysis increased in Queensland (adjusted rate ratio 20%, 95% CI 1.06% to 1.35%, p<0.01) during the months of the campaign and up to 2 months after broadcast, but only showed a tendency to increase in Western Australia (adjusted rate ratio 11%, 95% CI 0.99% to 1.24%, p=0.087). CONCLUSIONS: The higher intensity 8-week television-led campaign in Queensland increased the rate of kits returned for analysis in Queensland, whereas there were marginal effects for the low intensity campaign elements in Western Australia. The low levels of participation in Australia's NBCSP could be increased by national mass media campaigns, especially those led by higher intensity paid television advertising.

Who uses rollies? Trends in product offerings, price and use of roll-your-own tobacco in Australia.

OBJECTIVE: We examined the roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco product market in Australia from 2001 to 2016. Trends in use of RYO tobacco among Australian adults were examined for 2004-2016. METHODS: Changes in brand availability, pouch sizes and lowest priced products were noted from trade magazines. Prevalence of smoking of RYO and factory-made (FM) cigarettes among those 18 years and older was obtained from five consecutive waves of a large (n>21 000) nationally representative triennial survey from 2004 to 2016. Trends in cigarette use were examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Changes in the Australian RYO market from 2001 to 2016 included a doubling in the number of brands, progressively smaller pouch sizes with smaller increases in price than in traditional RYO and comparable FM products. While use of FM cigarettes declined between 2004 and 2016, the proportion of adults exclusively using RYO tobacco linearly increased with each survey wave (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.05, p<0.001), from 1.2% in 2004 to 1.7% in 2016. Exclusive RYO use among current smokers increased more among females than males, and young adults compared with those aged 30 years or older, but did not differ by socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to substantial declines in FM cigarette use, exclusive use of RYO cigarettes increased in Australians since 2004, particularly among females and young adults. This has corresponded to a period of substantial changes to the RYO market, including progressively smaller and relatively more affordable products. Policy action to reduce price-related marketing and correct consumer misinformation about RYO tobacco are urgently required.

Indexation of Tobacco Excise and Customs Duty and Smoking Prevalence Among Australian Adults, 2001-2010: A Serial Cross-sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: Australia's excise and customs duty on tobacco has been automatically increased biannually since 1984. Increases in duty on par with inflation ensured that tobacco stayed at least as costly as other goods. This would be expected to maintain, rather than drive down, smoking prevalence. We examined the association between smoking prevalence and duty over a 10-year period. METHODS: Using monthly data from five Australian capital cities, collected from March 2001 to March 2010 among Australians aged at least 18 years, multiple linear regression modeled associations between smoking prevalence and the two components (duty and non-duty) of the recommended retail price of an average packet of cigarettes, adjusting for policy covariates. RESULTS: Prevalence declined from 23.6% in March 2001 to 17.0% in March 2010 [absolute difference 6.6%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 6.5 to 6.8]. Duty increased from $0.2026 to $0.2622 per cigarette over the same period. In the adjusted model, a 1-cent increase in the duty component of price was not associated with changes in prevalence (0.019; 95% CI = -0.035 to 0.028). Increased non-duty component of price was associated with a decline in prevalence (-0.027; 95% CI = -0.052 to -0.002). This effect was stronger when changes in income were controlled for. CONCLUSIONS: In line with expectations, inflation-adjusted duty was not associated with changes in smoking prevalence, but it may have prevented upward pressure on prevalence that increasing affordability could have exerted. Frequent increases in duty greater than the growth in both wages and goods would more effectively reduce smoking than regular indexation. IMPLICATIONS: Few countries inflation-adjusted excise duty to ensure that tobacco products do not become more affordable; however, Australia experienced a decade of inflation adjustment alone, enabling the impact of this policy to be studied. This study shows that inflation-adjusted duty likely did prevent tobacco becoming more affordable and that indexation was associated with declines in smoking when tobacco companies over-shifted the duty rises (ie, increased price over and above duty rises).The study also suggests that frequent increases in taxation that exceed both wage growth and increases in costliness of other goods are needed to prompt increased rates of quitting.

Anti-smoking social norms are associated with increased cessation behaviours among lower and higher socioeconomic status smokers: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Social denormalisation of smoking can provide an environment that helps smokers to quit. This study examined which of three measures of anti-smoking social norms have the greatest influence on quitting-related cognitions and behaviours, and if this influence differs according to socioeconomic status (SES). METHODS: The Victorian Tracking Survey measured social norms among 1,348 (n(weighted) = 1,373) Australian adult smokers (aged 18-59) between 2012 and 2014, who were followed-up one week later. Weighted logistic regression analyses examined prospective associations of baseline subjective (family and friends' disapproval of smoking), injunctive (feeling embarrassed about being a smoker) and descriptive norms (living with someone who tried to quit in the past 12 months), with quitting-related cognitions and behaviours at follow-up. Data were weighted to account for telephony status (landline or mobile phone), sex and age. Analyses were adjusted for demographic characteristics, addiction level, tobacco control policies and quitting-related outcomes measured at baseline. Differences in associations between lower and higher SES smokers (based on educational attainment and area-based disadvantage) were examined through interaction terms and stratified analyses. RESULTS: Sixty-four percent of participants (n(weighted) = 872) perceived disapproval from family and friends, 31% (n(weighted) = 419) felt embarrassed to be a smoker, and 11% (n(weighted) = 155) lived with a recent quitter. All three norms were associated with having set a firm date to quit in the next month and with engaging in smoking limiting behaviours. Embarrassment was also associated with an increased likelihood of talking about quitting and with making a quit attempt. Associations were mostly comparable for lower and higher SES smokers, with no significant negative rebound effects overall or among subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate close others' disapproval and feelings of embarrassment most strongly motivate smokers to try to quit. If tobacco control policies or media campaigns further denormalise smoking, there should be no reason for concern that such denormalisation undermines cessation behaviours.