Analysis of user interactions with a digital health wallet for enabling care continuity in the context of an ongoing pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The onset of COVID-19 and related policy responses made it difficult to study interactive health informatics solutions in clinical study settings. Instrumented log and event data from interactive systems capture temporal details that can be used to generate insights about care continuity during ongoing pandemics. OBJECTIVE: To investigate user interactions with a digital health wallet (DHW) system for addressing care continuity challenges in chronic disease management in the context of an ongoing pandemic. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed user interaction log data generated by clinicians, nurses, and patients from the deployment of a DHW in a feasibility study conducted during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. We used the Hamming distance from Information Theory to quantify deviations of usage patterns extracted from the events data from predetermined workflow sequences supported by the platform. RESULTS: Nurses interacted with all the user interface elements relevant to triage. Clinicians interacted with only 43% of elements relevant to consultation, while patients interacted with 67% of the relevant user interface elements. Nurses and clinicians deviated from the predetermined workflow sequences by 42% and 36%, respectively. Most deviations pertained to users going back to previous steps in their usage workflow. CONCLUSIONS: User interaction log analysis is a valuable alternative method for generating and quantifying user experiences in the context of ongoing pandemics. However, researchers should mitigate the potential disruptions of the actual use of the studied technologies as well as use multiple approaches to investigate user experiences of health technology during pandemics.

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on essential health services: a comparison of interrupted time series analysis using Prophet and Poisson regression models.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) altered healthcare utilization patterns. However, there is a dearth of literature comparing methods for quantifying the extent to which the pandemic disrupted healthcare service provision in sub-Saharan African countries. OBJECTIVE: To compare interrupted time series analysis using Prophet and Poisson regression models in evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on essential health services. METHODS: We used reported data from Uganda's Health Management Information System from February 2018 to December 2020. We compared Prophet and Poisson models in evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on new clinic visits, diabetes clinic visits, and in-hospital deliveries between March 2020 to December 2020 and across the Central, Eastern, Northern, and Western regions of Uganda. RESULTS: The models generated similar estimates of the impact of COVID-19 in 10 of the 12 outcome-region pairs evaluated. Both models estimated declines in new clinic visits in the Central, Northern, and Western regions, and an increase in the Eastern Region. Both models estimated declines in diabetes clinic visits in the Central and Western regions, with no significant changes in the Eastern and Northern regions. For in-hospital deliveries, the models estimated a decline in the Western Region, no changes in the Central Region, and had different estimates in the Eastern and Northern regions. CONCLUSIONS: The Prophet and Poisson models are useful in quantifying the impact of interruptions on essential health services during pandemics but may result in different measures of effect. Rigor and multimethod triangulation are necessary to study the true effect of pandemics on essential health services.

Detection of Anomalous Patterns Associated with the Impact of Medications on 30-Day Hospital Readmission Rates in Diabetes Care.

Improving quality of care in diabetes requires a good understanding of variations in diabetes outcomes and related interventions. However, little is known about the impact of diabetes interventions on outcome measures at the subpopulation-level. In this study, we developed methods that combine causal inference techniques with subset scanning techniques to study the heterogeneous effects of treatments on binary health outcomes. We analyzed a diabetes dataset consisting of 70,000 initial inpatient encounters to investigate the anomalous patterns associated with the impact of 4 anti-diabetic medication classes on 30-day readmission in diabetes. We discovered anomalous subpopulations where the likelihood of readmission was up to 1.8 times higher than that of the overall population suggesting subpopulation-level heterogeneity. Identifying such subpopulations may lead to a better understanding of the heterogeneous effects of treatments and improve targeted intervention planning.

AI-assisted tracking of worldwide non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19.

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has transformed almost every facet of human society throughout the world. Against an emerging, highly transmissible disease, governments worldwide have implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to slow the spread of the virus. Examples of such interventions include community actions, such as school closures or restrictions on mass gatherings, individual actions including mask wearing and self-quarantine, and environmental actions such as cleaning public facilities. We present the Worldwide Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Tracker for COVID-19 (WNTRAC), a comprehensive dataset consisting of over 6,000 NPIs implemented worldwide since the start of the pandemic. WNTRAC covers NPIs implemented across 261 countries and territories, and classifies NPIs into a taxonomy of 16 NPI types. NPIs are automatically extracted daily from Wikipedia articles using natural language processing techniques and then manually validated to ensure accuracy and veracity. We hope that the dataset will prove valuable for policymakers, public health leaders, and researchers in modeling and analysis efforts to control the spread of COVID-19.

Addressing Care Continuity and Quality Challenges in the Management of Hypertension: Case Study of the Private Health Care Sector in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is a major risk factor of cardiovascular disease and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally. In Kenya, the rise of hypertension strains an already stretched health care system that has traditionally focused on the management of infectious diseases. Health care provision in this country remains fragmented, and little is known about the role of health information technology in care coordination. Furthermore, there is a dearth of literature on the experiences, challenges, and solutions for improving the management of hypertension and other noncommunicable diseases in the Kenyan private health care sector. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to assess stakeholders' perspectives on the challenges associated with the management of hypertension in the Kenyan private health care sector and to derive recommendations for the design and functionality of a digital health solution for addressing the care continuity and quality challenges in the management of hypertension. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative case study. We collected data using in-depth interviews with 18 care providers and 8 business leads, and direct observations at 18 private health care institutions in Nairobi, Kenya. We analyzed the data thematically to identify the key challenges and recommendations for technology-enabled solutions to support the management of hypertension in the Kenyan private health sector. We subsequently used the generated insights to derive and describe the design and range of functions of a digital health wallet platform for enabling care quality and continuity. RESULTS: The management of hypertension in the Kenyan private health care sector is characterized by challenges such as high cost of care, limited health care literacy, lack of self-management support, ineffective referral systems, inadequate care provider training, and inadequate regulation. Care providers lack the tools needed to understand their patients' care histories and effectively coordinate efforts to deliver high-quality hypertension care. The proposed digital health platform was designed to support hypertension care coordination and continuity through clinical workflow orchestration, decision support, and patient-mediated data sharing with privacy preservation, auditability, and trust enabled by blockchain technology. CONCLUSIONS: The Kenyan private health care sector faces key challenges that require significant policy, organizational, and infrastructural changes to ensure care quality and continuity in the management of hypertension. Digital health data interoperability solutions are needed to improve hypertension care coordination in the sector. Additional studies should investigate how patients can control the sharing of their data while ensuring that care providers have a holistic view of the patient during any encounter.

A Framework for Inferring Epidemiological Model Parameters using Bayesian Nonparametrics.

The use of epidemiological models for decision-making has been prominent during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work presents the application of nonparametric Bayesian techniques for inferring epidemiological model parameters based on available data sets published during the pandemic, towards enabling predictions under uncertainty during emerging pandemics. We present a methodology and framework that allows epidemiological model drivers to be integrated as input into the model calibration process. We demonstrate our methodology using the stringency index and mobility data for COVID-19 on an SEIRD compartmental model for selected US states. Our results directly compare the use of Bayesian nonparametrics for model predictions based on best parameter estimates with results of inference of parameter values across the US states. The proposed methodology provides a framework for What-If analysis and sequential decision-making methods for disease intervention planning and is demonstrated for COVID-19, while also applicable to other infectious disease models.

Data-Driven Sequential Uptake Pattern Discovery for Family Planning Studies.

Family planning is a crucial component of sustainable global development and is essential for achieving universal health coverage. Specifically, contraceptive use improves the health of women and children in several ways, including reducing maternal mortality risks, increasing child survival rates through birth spacing, and improving the nutritional status of both mother and children. This paper presents a data-driven approach to study the dynamics of contraceptive use and discontinuation in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. We aim to provide policymakers with discriminating contraceptive use patterns under different discontinuation reasons, contraceptive uptake distributions, and transition information across contraceptive types. We used Demographic Health Survey (DHS) Calendar data from five SSA countries. One recurrent pattern found was that continuous usage of injectables resulted in discontinuation due to health concerns in four out of five countries studied. This type of temporal analysis can aid intervention development to support sustainable development goals in Family Planning.

Identifying Factors Associated with Neonatal Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa using Machine Learning.

This study aimed at identifying the factors associated with neonatal mortality. We analyzed the Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets from 10 Sub-Saharan countries. For each survey, we trained machine learning models to identify women who had experienced a neonatal death within the 5 years prior to the survey being administered. We then inspected the models by visualizing the features that were important for each model, and how, on average, changing the values of the features affected the risk of neonatal mortality. We confirmed the known positive correlation between birth frequency and neonatal mortality and identified an unexpected negative correlation between household size and neonatal mortality. We further established that mothers living in smaller households have a higher risk of neonatal mortality compared to mothers living in larger households; and that factors such as the age and gender of the head of the household may influence the association between household size and neonatal mortality.

Enhancing Guideline-Based Prescribing and Personalized Medication Scheduling.

Poor communication of medication administration instructions is a preventable cause of medication nonadherence. The Universal Medication Schedule (UMS) framework improves adherence by providing a simplified set of dose timing rules. However, this framework does not readily generalize to individuals with varying daily routines. We propose a point-of-care solution for enhancing guideline-based electronic prescribing and personalizing dose schedules. We describe a JSON-based approach to encode and execute standard treatment guidelines to support electronic prescribing as well as an algorithm for optimizing medication administration schedules based on a patient's daily routine. We evaluated the structure and accuracy of our JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) formalism focusing on Kenya's hypertension treatment guidelines. Our experiments compare the medication schedules generated by our algorithm with those generated by pharmacists. Our findings show that treatment guidelines can be efficiently represented and executed using the JSON formalism, and that different medication administration schedules can be generated automatically and optimized for patients' daily routines.