Flawed conclusions on the Västerbotten Intervention Program by San Sebastian et .al.

An evaluation of Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) was recently conducted by San Sebastian et al. (BMC Public Health 19:202, 2019). Evaluation of health care interventions of this kind require 1) an understanding of both the design and the nature of the intervention, 2) correct definition of the target population, and 3) careful choice of the appropriate evaluation method. In this correspondence, we review the approach used by San Sebastian et al. as relates to these three criteria. Within this framework, we suggest important explanations for why the conclusions drawn by these authors contradict a large body of research on the effectiveness of the VIP.

Prevention of antibiotic resistance - an epidemiological scoping review to identify research categories and knowledge gaps.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics have become the cornerstone for the treatment of infectious diseases and contributed significantly to the dramatic global health development during the last 70 years. Millions of people now survive what were previously life-threatening infections. But antibiotics are finite resources and misuse has led to antibiotic resistance and reduced efficacy within just a few years of introduction of each new antibiotic. The World Health Organization rates antibiotic resistance as a 'global security threat' impacting on global health, food security and development and as important as terrorism and climate change. OBJECTIVES: This paper explores, through a scoping review of the literature published during the past 20 years, the magnitude of peer-reviewed and grey literature that addresses antibiotic resistance and specifically the extent to which "prevention" has been at the core. The ultimate aim is to identify know-do gaps and strategies to prevent ABR. METHODS: The review covers four main data bases, Web of Science, Medline, Scopus and Ebsco searched for 2000-17. The broader research field "antibiotic OR antimicrobial resistance" gave 431,335 hits. Narrowing the search criteria to "Prevention of antibiotic OR antimicrobial resistance" resulted in 1062 remaining titles. Of these, 622 were unique titles. After screening of the 622 titles for relevance, 420 abstracts were read, and of these 282 papers were read in full. An additional 53 references were identified from these papers, and 64 published during 2018 and 2019 were also included. The final scoping review database thus consisted of 399 papers. RESULTS: A thematic structure emerged when categorizing articles in different subject areas, serving as a proxy for interest expressed from the research community. The research area has been an evolving one with about half of the 399 papers published during the past four years of the study period. Epidemiological modelling needs strengthening and there is a need for more and better surveillance systems, especially in lower- and middle-income countries. There is a wealth of information on the local and national uses and misuses of antibiotics. Educational and stewardship programmes basically lack evidence. Several studies address knowledge of the public and prescribers. The lessons for policy are conveyed in many alarming reports from national and international organizations. CONCLUSIONS: Descriptive rather than theoretical ambitions have characterized the literature. If we want to better understand and explain the antibiotic situation from a behavioural perspective, the required approaches are lacking. A framework for an epidemiological causal web behind ABR is suggested and may serve to identify entry points for potential interventions.

Rebuilding research capacity in fragile states: the case of a Somali-Swedish global health initiative.

This paper presents an initiative to revive the previous Somali-Swedish Research Cooperation, which started in 1981 and was cut short by the civil war in Somalia. A programme focusing on research capacity building in the health sector is currently underway through the work of an alliance of three partner groups: six new Somali universities, five Swedish universities, and Somali diaspora professionals. Somali ownership is key to the sustainability of the programme, as is close collaboration with Somali health ministries. The programme aims to develop a model for working collaboratively across regions and cultural barriers within fragile states, with the goal of creating hope and energy. It is based on the conviction that health research has a key role in rebuilding national health services and trusted institutions.

How is Indonesia coping with its epidemic of chronic noncommunicable diseases? A systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) have emerged as a huge global health problem in low- and middle-income countries. The magnitude of the rise of NCDs is particularly visible in Southeast Asia where limited resources have been used to address this rising epidemic, as in the case of Indonesia. Robust evidence to measure growing NCD-related burdens at national and local levels and to aid national discussion on social determinants of health and intra-country inequalities is needed. The aim of this review is (i) to illustrate the burden of risk factors, morbidity, disability, and mortality related to NCDs; (ii) to identify existing policy and community interventions, including disease prevention and management strategies; and (iii) to investigate how and why an inequitable distribution of this burden can be explained in terms of the social determinants of health. METHODS: Our review followed the PRISMA guidelines for identifying, screening, and checking the eligibility and quality of relevant literature. We systematically searched electronic databases and gray literature for English- and Indonesian-language studies published between Jan 1, 2000 and October 1, 2015. We synthesized included studies in the form of a narrative synthesis and where possible meta-analyzed their data. RESULTS: On the basis of deductive qualitative content analysis, 130 included citations were grouped into seven topic areas: risk factors; morbidity; disability; mortality; disease management; interventions and prevention; and social determinants of health. A quantitative synthesis meta-analyzed a subset of studies related to the risk factors smoking, obesity, and hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings echo the urgent need to expand routine risk factor surveillance and outcome monitoring and to integrate these into one national health information system. There is a stringent necessity to reorient and enhance health system responses to offer effective, realistic, and affordable ways to prevent and control NCDs through cost-effective interventions and a more structured approach to the delivery of high-quality primary care and equitable prevention and treatment strategies. Research on social determinants of health and policy-relevant research need to be expanded and strengthened to the extent that a reduction of the total NCD burden and inequalities therein should be treated as related and mutually reinforcing priorities.

Impact of a combined community and primary care prevention strategy on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality: a cohort analysis based on 1 million person-years of follow-up in Västerbotten County, Sweden, during 1990-2006.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of the Västerbotten Intervention Programme (VIP) by comparing all eligible individuals (target group impact) according to the intention-to-treat principle and VIP participants with the general Swedish population. DESIGN: Dynamic cohort study. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: All individuals aged 40, 50 or 60 years, residing in Västerbotten County, Sweden, between 1990 and 2006 (N=101,918) were followed from their first opportunity to participate in the VIP until age 75, study end point or prior death. INTERVENTION: The VIP is a systematic, long-term, county-wide cardiovascular disease (CVD) intervention that is performed within the primary healthcare setting and combines individual and population approaches. The core component is a health dialogue based on a physical examination and a comprehensive questionnaire at the ages of 40, 50 and 60 years. PRIMARY OUTCOMES: All-cause and CVD mortality. RESULTS: For the target group, there were 5646 deaths observed over 1,054,607 person-years. Compared to Sweden at large, the standardised all-cause mortality ratio was 90.6% (95% CI 88.2% to 93.0%): for women 87.9% (95% CI 84.1% to 91.7%) and for men 92.2% (95% CI 89.2% to 95.3%). For CVD, the ratio was 95.0% (95% CI 90.7% to 99.4%): for women 90.4% (95% CI 82.6% to 98.7%) and for men 96.8% (95% CI 91.7 to 102.0). For participants, subject to further impact as well as selection, when compared to Sweden at large, the standardised all-cause mortality ratio was 66.3% (95% CI 63.7% to 69.0%), whereas the CVD ratio was 68.9% (95% CI 64.2% to 73.9%). For the target group as well as for the participants, standardised mortality ratios for all-cause mortality were reduced within all educational strata. CONCLUSIONS: The study suggests that the VIP model of CVD prevention is able to impact on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality when evaluated according to the intention-to-treat principle.

Millennium development goal four and child health inequities in indonesia: a systematic review of the literature.

INTRODUCTION: Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 calls for reducing mortality of children under-five years by two-thirds by 2015. Indonesia is on track to officially meet the MDG 4 targets by 2015 but progress has been far from universal. It has been argued that national level statistics, on which MDG 4 relies, obscure persistent health inequities within the country. Particularly inequities in child health are a major global public health challenge both for achieving MDG 4 in 2015 and beyond. This review aims to map out the situation of MDG 4 with respect to disadvantaged populations in Indonesia applying the Social Determinants of Health (SDH) framework. The specific objectives are to answer: Who are the disadvantaged populations? Where do they live? And why and how is the inequitable distribution of health explained in terms of the SDH framework? METHODS AND FINDINGS: We retrieved studies through a systematic review of peer-reviewed and gray literature published in 1995-2014. The PRISMA-Equity 2012 statement was adapted to guide the methods of this review. The dependent variables were MDG 4-related indicators; the independent variable "disadvantaged populations" was defined by different categories of social differentiation using PROGRESS. Included texts were analyzed following the guidelines for deductive content analysis operationalized on the basis of the SDH framework. We identified 83 studies establishing evidence on more than 40 different determinants hindering an equitable distribution of child health in Indonesia. The most prominent determinants arise from the shortcomings within the rural health care system, the repercussions of food poverty coupled with low health literacy among parents, the impact of low household decision-making power of mothers, and the consequences of high persistent use of traditional birth attendants among ethnic minorities. CONCLUSION: This review calls for enhanced understanding of the determinants and pathways that create, detain, and overcome inequities in child health in resource constraint settings like Indonesia and the promotion of actionable health policy recommendations and tailored investments.

Evaluating reporting heterogeneity in self-rated health among adults aged 50 years and above in India: an anchoring vignettes analytic approach.

OBJECTIVE: To use anchoring vignettes to evaluate reporting heterogeneity (RH) in self-rated mobility and cognition in older adults. METHOD: We analyzed vignettes and self-rated mobility and cognition in 2,558 individuals aged 50 years and above. We tested for assumptions of vignette equivalence (VE) and response consistency (RC). We used a joint hierarchical ordered probit (HOPIT) model to evaluate self-rating responses for RH. RESULTS: The assumption of VE was met except for "learning" vignettes. Higher socioeconomic status (SES) and education significantly lowered thresholds for cognition ratings. After correction for RH, women, lower SES, and older respondents were significantly more likely to report greater difficulty in mobility. The influence of age, SES, and education on thresholds was less apparent for cognition. DISCUSSION: Our study provides strong evidence of RH in self-rated mobility and cognition. We highlight the need to formally test basic assumptions before using vignettes to adjust self-rating responses for RH.

Declaration on mental health in Africa: moving to implementation.

Urgent action is needed to address mental health issues globally. In Africa, where mental health disorders account for a huge burden of disease and disability, and where in general less than 1% of the already small health budgets are spent on these disorders, the need for action is acute and urgent. Members of the World Health Organization, including African countries, have adopted a Comprehensive Mental Health Action Plan. Africa now has an historic opportunity to improve the mental health and wellbeing of its citizens, beginning with provision of basic mental health services and development of national mental health strategic plans (roadmaps). There is need to integrate mental health into primary health care and address stigma and violations of human rights. We advocate for inclusion of mental health into the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals, and for the convening of a special UN General Assembly High Level Meeting on Mental Health within three years.

The development and experience of epidemiological transition theory over four decades: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological transition (ET) theory, first postulated in 1971, has developed alongside changes in population structures over time. However, understandings of mortality transitions and associated epidemiological changes remain poorly defined for public health practitioners. Here, we review the concept and development of ET theory, contextualising this in empirical evidence, which variously supports and contradicts the original theoretical propositions. DESIGN: A Medline literature search covering publications over four decades, from 1971 to 2013, was conducted. Studies were included if they assessed human populations, were original articles, focused on mortality and health or demographic or ET and were in English. The reference lists of the selected articles were checked for additional sources. RESULTS: We found that there were changes in emphasis in the research field over the four decades. There was an increasing tendency to study wide-ranging aspects of the determinants of mortality, including risk factors, lifestyle changes, socio-economics, and macro factors such as climate change. Research on ET has focused increasingly on low- and middle-income countries rather than industrialised countries, despite its origins in industrialised countries. Countries have experienced different levels of progress in ET in terms of time, pace, and underlying mechanisms. Elements of ET are described for many countries, but observed transitions have not always followed pathways described in the original theory. CONCLUSIONS: The classic ET theory largely neglected the critical role of social determinants, being largely a theoretical generalisation of mortality experience in some countries. This review shows increasing interest in ET all over the world but only partial concordance between established theory and empirical evidence. Empirical evidence suggests that some unconsidered aspects of social determinants contributed to deviations from classic theoretical pathways. A better-constructed, revised ET theory, with a stronger basis in evidence, is needed.

Self-rated health: small area large area comparisons amongst older adults at the state, district and sub-district level in India.

We compared prevalence estimates of self-rated health (SRH) derived indirectly using four different small area estimation methods for the Vadu (small) area from the national Study on Global AGEing (SAGE) survey with estimates derived directly from the Vadu SAGE survey. The indirect synthetic estimate for Vadu was 24% whereas the model based estimates were 45.6% and 45.7% with smaller prediction errors and comparable to the direct survey estimate of 50%. The model based techniques were better suited to estimate the prevalence of SRH than the indirect synthetic method. We conclude that a simplified mixed effects regression model can produce valid small area estimates of SRH.

Use of anchoring vignettes to evaluate health reporting behavior amongst adults aged 50 years and above in Africa and Asia--testing assumptions.

BACKGROUND: Comparing self-rating health responses across individuals and cultures is misleading due to different reporting behaviors. Anchoring vignettes is a technique that allows identifying and adjusting self-rating responses for reporting heterogeneity (RH). OBJECTIVE: This article aims to test two crucial assumptions of vignette equivalence (VE) and response consistency (RC) that are required to be met before vignettes can be used to adjust self-rating responses for RH. DESIGN: We used self-ratings, vignettes, and objective measures covering domains of mobility and cognition from the WHO study on global AGEing and adult health, administered to older adults aged 50 years and above from eight low- and middle-income countries in Africa and Asia. For VE, we specified a hierarchical ordered probit (HOPIT) model to test for equality of perceived vignette locations. For RC, we tested for equality of thresholds that are used to rate vignettes with thresholds derived from objective measures and used to rate their own health function. RESULTS: There was evidence of RH in self-rating responses for difficulty in mobility and cognition. Assumptions of VE and RC between countries were violated driven by age, sex, and education. However, within a country context, assumption of VE was met in some countries (mainly in Africa, except Tanzania) and violated in others (mainly in Asia, except India). CONCLUSION: We conclude that violation of assumptions of RC and VE precluded the use of anchoring vignettes to adjust self-rated responses for RH across countries in Asia and Africa.

Accuracy of death certificates of cardiovascular disease in a community intervention in Sweden.

AIM: The aim was to investigate the possibility to evaluate the mortality pattern in a community intervention programme against cardiovascular disease by official death certificates. METHODS: For all deceased in the intervention area (Norsjö), the accuracy of the official death certificates were compared with matched controls in the rest of Västerbotten. The official causes of death were compared with new certificates, based on the last clinical record, issued by three of the authors, and coded by one of the authors, all four accordingly blinded. RESULTS: The degree of agreement between the official underlying causes of death in "cardiovascular disease" (CVD) and the re-evaluated certificates was not found to differ between Norsjö and the rest of Västerbotten. The agreement was 87% and 88% at chapter level, respectively, but only 55% and 55% at 4-digit level, respectively. The reclassification resulted in a 1% decrease of "cardiovascular deaths" in both Norsjö and the rest of Västerbotten. CONCLUSIONS: The disagreements in the reclassification of cause of death were equal but large in both directions. The official death certificates should be used with caution to evaluate CVD in small community intervention programmes, and restricted to the chapter level and total populations.