Trends in smoking initiation and cessation over a century in two Australian cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Historical data on smoking can enhance our comprehension of the effectiveness of past tobacco control policies and play a key role in developing targeted public health interventions. This study was undertaken to assess trends in smoking initiation and cessation in Australia for the period 1910-2005. METHODS: Rates of smoking initiation and cessation were calculated for participants in two population-based cohorts, the Busselton Health Study and the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study. The effects of time trends, gender and age group were evaluated. RESULTS: Of the 29,971 participants, 56.8% ever smoked. In males, over the period 1910-1999, the rate of smoking initiation in young adolescents remained high with a peak in the 1970s; in older adolescents it peaked in the 1940s and then declined; in young adults it showed a steady decline. In females, the rate of smoking initiation in young adolescents rose sharply in the 1960s and peaked in the 1970s, in older adolescents it increased throughout the period, and in young adults it declined after 1970. In the period 1930-2005, 27.3% of 9,605 people aged 36-50 years who smoked ceased smoking. Rates of cessation in this age group increased throughout but decreased in males after 1990 and plateaued around 2000 in females. CONCLUSION: Our findings show substantial variation in the efficacy of tobacco control policies across age groups, with a notable lack of success among the younger population.

BMI trajectories from infancy to 18 years and mental health in emerging adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Studies exploring early life-course BMI trajectories and subsequent mental health outcomes are limited but may provide important insights for early intervention. We investigated associations between BMI trajectories from 0 to 18 years and mental health outcomes in emerging adulthood. METHODS: Data were obtained from 434 participants in the Melbourne Atopy Cohort Study (MACS). Anthropometric data were collected across 26 timepoints from infancy to age 25 and group-based trajectory modelling was used to develop BMI trajectories from 0.1 to 18 years. Moderate-to-severe psychological distress (MSPD) and likely depression were assessed at age 18 and 25 years. Associations between BMI trajectories and mental health at 25 years and change in mental health between 18 and 25 years were estimated using logistic regression. History of asthma, hay fever or eczema were independently examined as potential effect modifiers. RESULTS: Five BMI trajectories were identified from 1 month to 18 years. When compared to the stable average BMI trajectory, we found an increased risk of MSPD (OR = 2.97; 95%CI: 1.09,8.06) and likely depression (3.56; 1.39,9.12) at age 25 in the average increasing-to-high trajectory. This group also had a greater likelihood of new-onset depression (4.82; 1.54,15.0) from 18 to 25 years of age. LIMITATIONS: MACS participants are not representative of the general population and mental health data was not available before 18 years of age. CONCLUSION: Excessive weight gain across the childhood transition was associated with poorer mental health in emerging adulthood, highlighting the importance of monitoring growth to allow for early identification and stratification of individuals at risk of poor mental health.

Childhood infections, asthma and allergy trajectories, and chronic rhinosinusitis in middle age: A prospective cohort study across six decades.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence on the early life risk factors of adult CRS, and the history of asthma and allergies across the life course, is limited. AIM: To investigate relationships between respiratory infective/allergic conditions in childhood, and asthma and allergies across the life course and CRS in middle age. METHODS: Data were from the population-based Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) cohort, first studied in 1968 when aged 6-7 years (n = 8583) and serially followed into middle age (n = 3609). Using a well-accepted epidemiological definition, participants were assigned a CRS-severity subtype at age 53: no sinusitis/CRS (reference); past doctor diagnosis only; current symptoms without doctor diagnosis; and doctor-diagnosed CRS with current symptoms. Relationships with infective/allergic respiratory illnesses at age 7, and previously published asthma-allergy trajectories from 7 to 53 years, were examined using multinominal regression. RESULTS: In middle age, 5.8% reported current CRS symptoms with 2.5% doctor-diagnosed. Childhood conditions associated with symptomatic doctor-diagnosed CRS included frequent head colds (multinomial odds ratio [mOR] = 2.04 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.24, 3.37)), frequent tonsillitis (mOR = 1.61 [95% CI: 1.00, 2.59]) and current childhood asthma (mOR = 2.23 [95% CI: 1.25, 3.98]). Life course trajectories that featured late-onset or persistent asthma and allergies were associated with all CRS subtypes in middle age; early-onset persistent asthma and allergies (mOR = 6.74, 95% CI: 2.76, 16.4); late-onset asthma allergies (mOR = 15.9, 95% CI: 8.06, 31.4), and late-onset hayfever (mOR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.51, 6.06) were associated with symptomatic doctor-diagnosed CRS. CONCLUSION: Current asthma, frequent head colds and tonsillitis at age 7 could signal a susceptible child who is at higher risk for CRS in mid-adult life and who might benefit from closer monitoring and/or proactive management. Concurrent asthma and allergies were strongly associated and are potential treatable traits of adult CRS.

Chronic Bronchitis in Children and Adults: Definitions, Pathophysiology, Prevalence, Risk Factors, and Consequences.

The complex nature of chronic bronchitis (CB) and changing definitions have contributed to challenges in understanding its aetiology and burden. In children, CB is characterised by persistent airway inflammation often linked to bacterial infections and is therefore termed "protracted bacterial bronchitis" (PBB). Longitudinal studies suggest that CB in childhood persists into adulthood in a subgroup. It can also be associated with future chronic respiratory diseases including asthma, bronchiectasis, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Adult CB is traditionally associated with smoking, occupational exposures, and lower socioeconomic status. The interplay between risk factors, childhood CB, adult CB, and other chronic respiratory diseases is intricate, requiring comprehensive longitudinal studies for a clearer understanding of the natural history of CB across the lifespan. Such longitudinal studies have been scarce to date given the logistic challenges of maintaining them over time. In this review, we summarise current evidence on the evolution of the definitions, pathophysiology, risk factors, and consequences of childhood and adulthood chronic bronchitis.

Can We Use Lung Function Thresholds and Respiratory Symptoms to Identify Pre-Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease? A Prospective, Population-based Cohort Study.

Rationale: The term "pre-chronic obstructive pulmonary disease" ("pre-COPD") refers to individuals at high risk of developing COPD who do not meet conventional spirometric criteria for airflow obstruction. New approaches to identifying these individuals are needed, particularly in younger populations. Objectives: To determine whether lung function thresholds and respiratory symptoms can be used to identify individuals at risk of developing COPD. Methods: The Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study comprises a population-based cohort first studied in 1968 (at age 7 yr). Respiratory symptoms, pre- and post-bronchodilator (BD) spirometry, diffusing capacity, and static lung volumes were measured in a subgroup at age 45, and the incidence of COPD was assessed at age 53. For each lung function measure, z-scores were calculated using Global Lung Function Initiative references. The optimal threshold for best discrimination of COPD incidence was determined by the unweighted Youden index. Measurements and Main Results: Among 801 participants who did not have COPD at age 45, the optimal threshold for COPD incidence by age 53 was pre-BD FEV1/FVC z-score less than -1.264, corresponding to the lowest 10th percentile. Those below this threshold had a 36-fold increased risk of developing COPD over an 8-year follow-up period (risk ratio, 35.8; 95% confidence interval, 8.88 to 144), corresponding to a risk difference of 16.4% (95% confidence interval, 3.7 to 67.4). The sensitivity was 88%, and the specificity was 87%. Positive and negative likelihood ratios were 6.79 and 0.14, respectively. Respiratory symptoms, post-BD spirometry, diffusing capacity, and static lung volumes did not improve on the classification achieved by pre-BD FEV1/FVC alone. Conclusions: This is the first study, to our knowledge, to evaluate the discriminatory accuracy of spirometry, diffusing capacity, and static lung volume thresholds for COPD incidence in middle-aged adults. Our findings support the inclusion of pre-BD spirometry in the physiological definition of pre-COPD and indicate that pre-BD FEV1/FVC at the 10th percentile accurately identifies individuals at high risk of developing COPD in community-based settings.

Associations of early life and childhood risk factors with obstructive sleep apnoea in middle-age.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Early-life risk factors for obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA) are poorly described, yet this knowledge may be critical to inform preventive strategies. We conducted the first study to investigate the association between early-life risk factors and OSA in middle-aged adults. METHODS: Data were from population-based Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study cohort (n = 3550) followed from 1st to 6th decades of life. Potentially relevant childhood exposures were available from a parent-completed survey at age 7-years, along with previously characterized risk factor profiles. Information on the primary outcome, probable OSA (based on a STOP-Bang questionnaire cut-off ≥5), were collected when participants were 53 years old. Associations were examined using logistic regression adjusting for potential confounders. Analyses were repeated using the Berlin questionnaire. RESULTS: Maternal asthma (OR = 1.5; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), maternal smoking (OR = 1.2; 1.05, 1.5), childhood pleurisy/pneumonia (OR = 1.3; 1.04, 1.7) and frequent bronchitis (OR = 1.2; 1.01, 1.5) were associated with probable OSA. The risk-factor profiles of 'parental smoking' and 'frequent asthma and bronchitis' were also associated with probable OSA (OR = 1.3; 1.01, 1.6 and OR = 1.3; 1.01-1.9, respectively). Similar associations were found for Berlin questionnaire-defined OSA. CONCLUSIONS: We found novel temporal associations of maternal asthma, parental smoking and frequent lower respiratory tract infections before the age of 7 years with adult OSA. While determination of their pathophysiological and any causal pathways require further research, these may be useful to flag the risk of OSA within clinical practice and create awareness and vigilance among at-risk groups.

Association of novel adult cough subclasses with clinical characteristics and lung function across six decades of life in a prospective, community-based cohort in Australia: an analysis of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS).

BACKGROUND: Cough is a common yet heterogeneous condition. Little is known about the characteristics and course of cough in general populations. We aimed to investigate cough subclasses, their characteristics from childhood across six decades of life, and potential treatable traits in a community-based cohort. METHODS: For our analysis of the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS), a prospective, community-based cohort study that began on Feb 23, 1968, and has so far followed up participants in Tasmania, Australia, at intervals of 10 years from a mean age of 7 years to a mean age of 53 years, we used data collected as part of the TAHS to distinguish cough subclasses among current coughers at age 53 years. For this analysis, participants who answered Yes to at least one cough-related question via self-report questionnaire were defined as current coughers and included in a latent class analysis of cough symptoms; participants who answered No to all nine cough-related questions were defined as non-coughers and excluded from this analysis. Two groups of longitudinal features were assessed from age 7 years to age 53 years: previously established longitudinal trajectories of FEV1, forced vital capacity [FVC], FEV1/FVC ratio, asthma, and allergies-identified via group-based trajectory analysis or latent class analysis-and symptoms at different timepoints, including asthma, current productive cough, ever chronic productive cough, current smoking, and second-hand smoking. FINDINGS: Of 8583 participants included at baseline in the TAHS, 6128 (71·4%) were traced and invited to participate in a follow-up between Sept 3, 2012, and Nov 8, 2016; 3609 (58·9%) of these 6128 returned the cough questionnaire. The mean age of participants in this analysis was 53 years (SD 1·0). 2213 (61·3%) of 3609 participants were defined as current coughers and 1396 (38·7%) were categorised as non-coughers and excluded from the latent class analysis. 1148 (51·9%) of 2213 participants in this analysis were female and 1065 (48·1%) were male. Six distinct cough subclasses were identified: 206 (9·3%) of 2213 participants had minimal cough, 1189 (53·7%) had cough with colds only, 305 (13·8%) had cough with allergies, 213 (9·6%) had intermittent productive cough, 147 (6·6%) had chronic dry cough, and 153 (6·9%) had chronic productive cough. Compared with people with minimal cough, and in contrast to other cough subclasses, people in the chronic productive cough and intermittent productive cough subclasses had worse lung function trajectories (FEV1 persistent low trajectory 2·9%, 6·4%, and 16·1%; p=0·0011, p<0·0001; FEV1/FVC early low-rapid decline trajectory 2·9%, 12·1%, and 13·0%; p=0·012, p=0·0007) and a higher prevalence of cough (age 53 years 0·0%, 32·4% [26·1-38·7], and 50·3% [42·5-58·2]) and asthma (age 53 years 6·3% [3·7-10·6], 26·9% [21·3-33·3], and 41·7% [24·1-49·7]) from age 7 years to age 53 years. INTERPRETATION: We identified potential treatable traits for six cough subclasses (eg, asthma, allergies, and active and passive smoking for productive cough). The required management of productive cough in primary care (eg, routine spirometry) might differ from that of dry cough if our findings are supported by other studies. Future population-based studies could apply our framework to address the heterogeneity and complexity of cough in the community. FUNDING: The National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, The University of Melbourne, Clifford Craig Medical Research Trust of Tasmania, Victorian Asthma Foundation, Queensland Asthma Foundation, Tasmanian Asthma Foundation, The Royal Hobart Hospital Research Foundation, the Helen MacPherson Smith Trust, GlaxoSmithKline, and the China Scholarship Council.

Inhaled corticosteroids with combination inhaled long-acting beta2-agonists and long-acting muscarinic antagonists for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

BACKGROUND: Management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) commonly involves a combination of long-acting bronchodilators including beta2-agonists (LABA) and muscarinic antagonists (LAMA). LABA and LAMA bronchodilators are now available in single-combination inhalers. In individuals with persistent symptoms or frequent exacerbations, inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) are also used with combination LABA and LAMA inhalers. However, the benefits and risks of adding ICS to combination LABA/LAMA inhalers as a triple therapy remain unclear. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of adding an ICS to combination LABA/LAMA inhalers for the treatment of stable COPD. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Airways Group Register of Trials, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and Embase up to 30 November 2022. We also searched ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO ICTRP up to 30 November 2022. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included parallel-group randomised controlled trials of three weeks' duration or longer that compared the treatment of stable COPD with ICS in addition to combination LABA/LAMA inhalers against combination LABA/LAMA inhalers alone. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard Cochrane methodological procedures. The primary outcomes were acute exacerbations of COPD, respiratory health-related quality of life, pneumonia and other serious adverse events. The secondary outcomes were symptom scores, lung function, physical capacity, and mortality. We used GRADE to assess certainty of evidence for studies that contributed data to our prespecified outcomes. MAIN RESULTS: Four studies with a total of 15,412 participants met the inclusion criteria. The mean age of study participants ranged from 64.4 to 65.3 years; the proportion of female participants ranged from 28% to 40%. Most participants had symptomatic COPD (COPD Assessment Test Score ≥ 10) with severe to very severe airflow limitation (forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) < 50% predicted) and one or more moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbations in the last 12 months. Trial medications differed amongst studies. The duration of follow-up was 52 weeks in three studies and 24 weeks in one study. We assessed the risk of selection, performance, and detection bias to be low in the included studies; one study was at high risk of attrition bias, and one study was at high risk of reporting bias. Triple therapy may reduce rates of moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbations compared to combination LABA/LAMA inhalers (rate ratio (RR) 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.67 to 0.81; n = 15,397; low-certainty evidence). Subgroup analysis stratifying by blood eosinophil counts showed there may be a greater reduction in rate of moderate-to-severe COPD exacerbations with triple therapy in participants with high-eosinophils (RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.75) compared to low-eosinophils (RR 0.87, 95% CI 0.81 to 0.93) (test for subgroup differences: P < 0.01) (high/low cut-offs: 150 eosinophils/µL in three studies; 200 eosinophils/µL in one study). However, moderate-to-substantial heterogeneity was observed in both high- and low-eosinophil subgroups. These subgroup analyses are observational by nature and thus results should be interpreted with caution. Triple therapy may be associated with reduced rates of severe COPD exacerbations (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.84; n = 14,131; low-certainty evidence). Triple therapy improved health-related quality of life assessed using the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) by the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) threshold (4-point decrease) (35.3% versus 42.4%, odds ratio (OR) 1.35, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.45; n = 14,070; high-certainty evidence). Triple therapy may result in fewer symptoms measured using the Transition Dyspnoea Index (TDI) (OR 1.33, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.57; n = 3044; moderate-certainty evidence) and improved lung function as measured by change in trough FEV1 (mean difference 38.68 mL, 95% CI 22.58 to 54.77; n = 11,352; low-certainty evidence). However, these benefits fell below MCID thresholds for TDI (1-unit decrease) and trough FEV1 (100 mL), respectively. Triple therapy is probably associated with a higher risk of pneumonia as a serious adverse event compared to combination LABA/LAMA inhalers (3.3% versus 1.9%, OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.18; n = 15,412; moderate-certainty evidence). In contrast, all-cause serious adverse events may be similar between groups (19.7% versus 19.7%, OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.03; n = 15,412; low-certainty evidence). All-cause mortality may be lower with triple therapy (1.4% versus 2.0%, OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.54 to 0.90; n = 15,397; low-certainty evidence). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: The available evidence suggests that triple therapy may reduce rates of COPD exacerbations (low-certainty evidence) and results in an improvement in health-related quality of life (high-certainty evidence) compared to combination LABA/LAMA inhalers, but probably confers an increased pneumonia risk as a serious adverse event (moderate-certainty evidence). Triple therapy probably improves respiratory symptoms and may improve lung function (moderate- and low-certainty evidence, respectively); however, these benefits do not appear to be clinically significant. Triple therapy may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality compared to combination LABA/LAMA inhalers (low-certainty evidence). The certainty of the evidence was downgraded most frequently for inconsistency or indirectness. Across the four included studies, there were important differences in inclusion criteria, trial medications, and duration of follow-up. Investigation of heterogeneity was limited due to the small number of included studies. We found limited data on the effects of triple therapy compared to combination LABA/LAMA inhalers in patients with mild-moderate COPD and those without a recent exacerbation history.

Exploration of associations between occupational exposures and current adult eczema.

OBJECTIVES: There is a scarcity of evidence on occupational exposures that may increase eczema in adults. We aimed to investigate potential associations between occupational exposures and eczema in middle-aged adults. METHODS: A lifetime work history calendar was collected from the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study participants when they were at age 53. Their work history was collated with the occupational asthma-specific job exposure matrix to define ever-exposure and cumulative exposure unit-years since no eczema job exposure matrix is available. Eczema was determined using the report of flexural rash that was coming and going for at least 6 months in the last 12 months. Skin prick tests were used to further subgroup eczema and atopic eczema (AE) or non-AE (NAE). Logistic and multinomial regression models were used to investigate the associations. RESULTS: Eczema prevalence was 9.1%. Current occupational exposure to animals (adjusted OR, aOR=3.06 (95% CI 1.43 to 6.58)), storage mites (aOR=2.96 (95% CI 1.38 to 6.34)) and endotoxin (aOR=1.95 (95% CI 1.04 to 3.64)) were associated with increased risk of current eczema. Furthermore, increased odds of NAE were associated with current exposure to animals (aOR=5.60 (95% CI 1.45 to 21.7)) and storage mites (aOR=5.63 (95% CI 1.45 to 21.9)). Current exposures to isocyanates (aOR=5.27 (95% CI 1.17 to 23.7)) and acrylates (aOR=8.41 (95% CI 1.60 to 44.3)) were associated with AE. There was no evidence of associations between cumulative exposures and eczema prevalence. Cumulative exposure to metalworking fluids (aOR=1.10 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.22)) was associated with NAE and acrylates (aOR=1.24 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.46)) with AE. CONCLUSIONS: In this exploratory assessment, multiple occupational exposures were associated with current eczema in middle-aged adults. Raising awareness and limiting these exposures during an individual's productive working life will likely have various health benefits, including reducing eczema prevalence.

Long-term exposure to low concentrations of air pollution and decline in lung function in people with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: Evidence from Australia.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the association between ambient air pollution and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in areas with lower levels of exposure. We aimed to investigate the impact of air pollution on lung function and rapid progression of IPF in Australia. METHODS: Participants were recruited from the Australian IPF Registry (n = 570). The impact of air pollution on changes in lung function was assessed using linear mixed models and Cox regression was used to investigate the association with rapid progression. RESULTS: Median (25th-75th percentiles) annual fine particulate matter (<2.5 µm, PM2.5 ) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) were 6.8 (5.7, 7.9) µg/m3 and 6.7 (4.9, 8.2) ppb, respectively. Compared to living more than 100 m from a major road, living within 100 m was associated with a 1.3% predicted/year (95% confidence interval [CI] -2.4 to -0.3) faster annual decline in diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLco). Each interquartile range (IQR) of 2.2 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a 0.9% predicted/year (95% CI -1.6 to -0.3) faster annual decline in DLco, while there was no association observed with NO2 . There was also no association between air pollution and rapid progression of IPF. CONCLUSION: Living near a major road and increased PM2.5 were both associated with an increased rate of annual decline in DLco. This study adds to the evidence supporting the negative effects of air pollution on lung function decline in people with IPF living at low-level concentrations of exposure.

Undiagnosed and 'overdiagnosed' COPD using postbronchodilator spirometry in primary healthcare settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) being a major global cause of mortality and hospitalisation, it is often undiagnosed or inaccurately diagnosed in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE: To systematically synthesise all peer-reviewed papers from primary healthcare settings that have reported data on: (1) undiagnosed COPD, that is, patients with respiratory symptoms and postbronchodilator airflow obstruction consistent with COPD, without a formal clinician's diagnosis of COPD either documented in health records or reported by patients and (2) 'overdiagnosed COPD', that is, clinician's diagnosis without postbronchodilator airflow obstruction. METHODS: Studies investigating these diagnostic metrics in patients from primary healthcare clinics (according to predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria) were sourced from Medline and Embase and assessed for bias (Johanna Briggs Institute tools for prevalence studies and case series). Meta-analyses of studies of adequate sample size used random effect modelling stratified by risk factor categories. RESULTS: Of 26 eligible articles, 21 cross-sectional studies investigated 3959 cases of spirometry-defined COPD (with or without symptoms), and 5 peer-reviewed COPD case series investigated 7381 patients. The prevalence of spirometry-confirmed COPD without a diagnosis documented in their health records was 14%-26% in studies of symptomatic smokers (N=3). 1 in 4 patients taking inhaled therapies (25% (95% CI 22% to 28%), N=2) and 1 in 6 smokers irrespective of symptoms (16% (95% CI 14% to 18%), N=6) fulfilled diagnostic spirometry criteria but did not report receiving a COPD-related diagnosis. In an adequately powered series of COPD cases documented in primary healthcare records (N=4), only between 50% and 75% of subjects had any airflow obstruction on postbronchodilator spirometry performed by study researchers, therefore, COPD was clinically 'overdiagnosed' in 25%-50% of subjects. DISCUSSION: Although data were heterogeneous and of modest quality, undiagnosed COPD was common in primary healthcare, especially for symptomatic smokers and patients treated with inhaled therapies. In contrast, frequent COPD 'overdiagnosis' may represent treatment of asthma/reversible component or another medical diagnosis. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42022295832.

Longitudinal Asthma Phenotypes from Childhood to Middle-Age: A Population-based Cohort Study.

Rationale: Asthma is a heterogeneous condition, and longitudinal phenotyping may provide new insights into the origins and outcomes of the disease. Objectives: We aimed to characterize the longitudinal phenotypes of asthma between the first and sixth decades of life in a population-based cohort study. Methods: Respiratory questionnaires were collected at seven time points in the TAHS (Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study) when participants were aged 7, 13, 18, 32, 43, 50, and 53 years. Current-asthma and ever-asthma status was determined at each time point, and group-based trajectory modeling was used to characterize distinct longitudinal phenotypes. Linear and logistic regression models were fitted to investigate associations of the longitudinal phenotypes with childhood factors and adult outcomes. Measurements and Main Results: Of 8,583 original participants, 1,506 had reported ever asthma. Five longitudinal asthma phenotypes were identified: early-onset adolescent-remitting (40%), early-onset adult-remitting (11%), early-onset persistent (9%), late-onset remitting (13%), and late-onset persistent (27%). All phenotypes were associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease at age 53 years, except for late-onset remitting asthma (odds ratios: early-onset adolescent-remitting, 2.00 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.13-3.56]; early-onset adult-remitting, 3.61 [95% CI, 1.30-10.02]; early-onset persistent, 8.73 [95% CI, 4.10-18.55]; and late-onset persistent, 6.69 [95% CI, 3.81-11.73]). Late-onset persistent asthma was associated with the greatest comorbidity at age 53 years, with increased risk of mental health disorders and cardiovascular risk factors. Conclusions: Five longitudinal asthma phenotypes were identified between the first and sixth decades of life, including two novel remitting phenotypes. We found differential effects of these phenotypes on risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and nonrespiratory comorbidities in middle age.

Life course BMI trajectories from childhood to mid-adulthood are differentially associated with anxiety and depression outcomes in middle age.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a risk factor for multimorbidity, including depression and possibly anxiety. However, it is currently unclear how patterns of change in BMI over the life course differentially influence the magnitude in risk of depression and anxiety in mid-adulthood. We aimed to examine associations between BMI trajectories from childhood to adulthood and the risk of depression and anxiety in middle age. METHODS: In the Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (n = 2416), five distinct BMI trajectories were previously defined from age 5 to 45 years using group-based modelling. At age 53, current depression and anxiety were assessed using the Patient Health Questionnaire and the Generalized Anxiety Disorder scale, respectively. Logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders estimated associations between BMI trajectories and these outcomes. RESULTS: Those belonging to the child average-increasing (OR = 2.24; 95%CI: 1.24, 4.06) and persistently high (OR = 2.64; 1.26, 5.52) trajectories were more likely to have depression in middle age, compared to the persistently average trajectory. However, the odds of experiencing greater severity of depressive symptoms was highest in the child average-increasing group (OR = 2.36; 1.59, 3.49). Despite finding no evidence of association between BMI trajectories and current anxiety, we observed less severe symptoms in the child high-decreasing trajectory (OR = 0.68; 0.51, 0.91). CONCLUSION: We found an increased risk of depression in middle age among individuals with a persistently high BMI from childhood to mid-adulthood and individuals with an average BMI in childhood which then increased consistently throughout adulthood. Encouragingly, resolving childhood adiposity by adulthood was associated with lesser anxiety symptoms. Taken together, these findings highlight the need to target mental health screening and treatment towards high-risk BMI trajectory groups and the importance of early interventions to prevent and resolve excess weight.

The influence of immortal time bias in observational studies examining associations of antifibrotic therapy with survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: A simulation study.

Background: Immortal time bias (ITB) has been overlooked in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We aimed to identify the presence of ITB in observational studies examining associations between antifibrotic therapy and survival in patients with IPF and illustrate how ITB may affect effect size estimates of those associations. Methods: Immortal time bias was identified in observational studies using the ITB Study Assessment Checklist. We used a simulation study to illustrate how ITB may affect effect size estimates of antifibrotic therapy on survival in patients with IPF based on four statistical techniques including time-fixed, exclusion, time-dependent and landmark methods. Results: Of the 16 included IPF studies, ITB was detected in 14 studies, while there were insufficient data for assessment in two others. Our simulation study showed that use of time-fixed [hazard ratio (HR) 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-0.64] and exclusion methods (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.67-0.92) overestimated the effectiveness of antifibrotic therapy on survival in simulated subjects with IPF, in comparison of the time-dependent method (HR 0.93, 95% CI 0.79-1.09). The influence of ITB was mitigated using the 1 year landmark method (HR 0.69, 95% CI 0.58-0.81), compared to the time-fixed method. Conclusion: The effectiveness of antifibrotic therapy on survival in IPF can be overestimated in observational studies, if ITB is mishandled. This study adds to the evidence for addressing the influence of ITB in IPF and provides several recommendations to minimize ITB. Identifying the presence of ITB should be routinely considered in future IPF studies, with the time-dependent method being an optimal approach to minimize ITB.

Mapping EQ5D utilities from forced vital capacity and diffusing capacity in fibrotic interstitial lung disease.

OBJECTIVES: Fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) includes a large group of conditions that lead to scarring of the lungs. The lack of available 5-level EuroQol 5D (EQ5D) data has limited the ability to conduct economic evaluations in ILD. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a mapping algorithm that predicts EQ5D utilities from commonly collected pulmonary function measurements (forced vital capacity [FVC] and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide [DLCO]) in fibrotic ILDs. METHODS: EQ5D utility and pulmonary function measurements from the Canadian Registry for Pulmonary Fibrosis were included. Ordinary least squares (OLS), beta regression, two-part, and tobit models were used to map EQ5D utilities from FVC or DLCO. Model performance was assessed by comparing the predicted and observed utilities. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to test how well models performed across different patient characteristics. The models were then externally validated in the Australian Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Registry. RESULTS: The OLS model performed as well as other more complex models (root mean squared error: 0.17 for FVC and 0.16 for DLCO). As with the other models, the OLS algorithm performed well across the different subgroups (except for EQ5D utilities < 0.5) and in the external validation cohort. CONCLUSION: We developed a mapping algorithm that predicts EQ5D utilities from FVC and DLCO, with the intent that this algorithm can be applied to clinical trial populations and real-world cohorts that have not prioritized collection of health-related utilities. The mapping algorithm can be used in future economic evaluations of potential ILD therapies.

The relative contribution of co-morbidities to health-related quality of life of people with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis using the Assessment of Quality of Life-8-Dimension multi-attribute utility instrument.

PURPOSE: Little is known about the impact of co-morbidities on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) for people with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). We aimed to investigate the relative contribution of co-morbidities to HRQoL of people with IPF. METHODS: N = 157 participants were recruited from the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR). Health state utilities (HSUs), and the super-dimensions of physical and psychosocial scores were measured using the Assessment of Quality of Life-8-Dimensions (AQoL-8D). The impact of co-morbidities on HRQoL was investigated using linear regression and general dominance analyses. RESULTS: A higher number of co-morbidities was associated with lower HSUs (p trend = 0.002). Co-morbidities explained 9.1% of the variance of HSUs, 16.0% of physical super-dimensional scores, and 4.2% of psychosocial super-dimensional scores. Arthritis was associated with a significant reduction on HSUs (ß = - 0.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.16 to - 0.02), largely driven by reduced scores on the physical super-dimension (ß = - 0.13, 95% CI - 0.20 to - 0.06). Heart diseases were associated with a significant reduction on HSUs (ß = - 0.09, 95% CI - 0.16 to - 0.02), driven by reduced scores on physical (ß = - 0.09, 95% CI - 0.16 to - 0.02) and psychosocial (ß = -0.10, 95% CI - 0.17 to - 0.02) super-dimensions. CONCLUSIONS: Co-morbidities significantly impact HRQoL of people with IPF, with markedly negative impacts on their HSUs and physical health. A more holistic approach to the care of people with IPF is important as better management of these co-morbidities could lead to improved HRQoL in people with IPF.

Epidemiology of eczema in South-Eastern Australia.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Eczema is a common chronic debilitating skin condition in childhood. Data on the epidemiology and natural history of eczema across the life course are lacking. This analysis aimed to describe these epidemiological features in Australian children and adults. METHODS: Data collected on eczema from four Australian cohort studies were analysed: namely HealthNuts, Melbourne Atopic Cohort Study (MACS), Tasmanian Longitudinal Health Study (TAHS) and the Australian arm of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey (ECRHS). RESULTS: Among children aged under 6 years, 28.8%-35.6% have ever-had eczema, and 16.7%-26.6% had 'current eczema'. Among those aged 6-12 years, 14.6%-24.7% had 'current eczema' with 12.0%-18.5% of those at ages of 6 and 10 years classified as having moderate-to-severe eczema according to the Scoring of Atopic Dermatitis (SCORAD) index. In adults, the prevalence of 'eczema ever' ranged between 13.8% and 48.4%. The 12-month period prevalence of eczema was 15.1% at age 18, while current eczema was 8.5% at an average age of 51, and 8.8% at an average age 53 years. Eczema was more common among young boys, but this difference became non-significant for older children and early adolescents. In contrast, eczema was more common for adult women than men. CONCLUSIONS: Eczema is common both in children and adults. The proportion of severe eczema in children was substantial.

Assessment of health-related quality of life in Australian patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a comparison of the EQ-5D-5L and the AQoL-8D.

PURPOSE: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and debilitating chronic lung disease with a high symptom burden, which has a substantial impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Our study aimed to assess the suitability of the EuroQol five-dimension (EQ-5D-5L) and the Assessment of Quality of Life- eight-dimension (AQoL-8D) questionnaires in measuring HRQoL as health state utility values (HSUVs) in an Australian IPF cohort. METHODS: Data for estimation of health state utility values (HSUVs) were collected from participants of the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR) using self-administered surveys which included the EQ-5D-5L and the AQoL-8D. Data on lung function and disease specific HRQoL instruments were collected from the AIPFR. Performance of the two instruments was evaluated based on questionnaire practicality, agreement between the two instruments and test performance (internal and construct validity). RESULTS: Overall completion rates for the EQ-5D-5L and AQoL-8D were 96% and 85%, respectively. Mean (median) HSUVs were 0.65 (0.70) and 0.69 (0.72) for the EQ-5D-5L and AQoL-8D, respectively. There was reasonable agreement between the two instruments based on the Bland-Altman plot mean difference (-0.04) and intraclass correlation coefficient (0.84), however there were some fundamental differences. A larger range of values was observed with the EQ-5D-5L (-0.57-1.00 vs 0.16-1.00). The EQ-5D-5L had a greater divergent sensitivity and efficacy in relation to assessing HSUVs between clinical groupings. The AQoL-8D ,however, had a higher sensitivity to measure psychosocial aspects of HRQoL in IPF. CONCLUSION: The EQ-5D-5L demonstrated superior performance when compared to AQoL-8D in persons with IPF. This may be attributable to the high symptom burden which is physically debilitating to which the EQ-5D-5L may be more sensitive.