Development and quality appraisal of a new English breast screening linked data set as part of the age, test threshold, and frequency of mammography screening (ATHENA-M) study.

OBJECTIVES: To build a data set capturing the whole breast cancer screening journey from individual breast cancer screening records to outcomes and assess data quality. METHODS: Routine screening records (invitation, attendance, test results) from all 79 English NHS breast screening centres between January 1, 1988 and March 31, 2018 were linked to cancer registry (cancer characteristics and treatment) and national mortality data. Data quality was assessed using comparability, validity, timeliness, and completeness. RESULTS: Screening records were extracted from 76/79 English breast screening centres, 3/79 were not possible due to software issues. Data linkage was successful from 1997 after introduction of a universal identifier for women (NHS number). Prior to 1997 outcome data are incomplete due to linkage issues, reducing validity. Between January 1, 1997 and March 31, 2018, a total of 11 262 730 women were offered screening of whom 9 371 973 attended at least one appointment, with 139 million person-years of follow-up (a median of 12.4 person years for each woman included) with 73 810 breast cancer deaths and 1 111 139 any-cause deaths. Comparability to reference data sets and internal validity were demonstrated. Data completeness was high for core screening variables (>99%) and main cancer outcomes (>95%). CONCLUSIONS: The ATHENA-M project has created a large high-quality and representative data set of individual women's screening trajectories and outcomes in England from 1997 to 2018, data before 1997 are lower quality. ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE: This is the most complete data set of English breast screening records and outcomes constructed to date, which can be used to evaluate and optimize screening.

The projected impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on breast cancer deaths in England due to the cessation of population screening: a national estimation.

BACKGROUND: Population breast screening services in England were suspended in March 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we estimate the number of breast cancers whose detection may be delayed because of the suspension, and the potential impact on cancer deaths over 10 years. METHODS: We estimated the number and length of screening delays from observed NHS Breast Screening System data. We then estimated additional breast cancer deaths from three routes: asymptomatic tumours progressing to symptomatically diagnosed disease, invasive tumours which remain screen-detected but at a later date, and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) progressing to invasive disease by detection. We took progression rates, prognostic characteristics, and survival rates from published sources. RESULTS: We estimated that 1,489,237 women had screening delayed by around 2-7 months between July 2020 and June 2021, leaving 745,277 outstanding screens. Depending on how quickly this backlog is cleared, around 2500-4100 cancers would shift from screen-detected to symptomatic cancers, resulting in 148-452 additional breast cancer deaths. There would be an additional 164-222 screen-detected tumour deaths, and 71-97 deaths from DCIS that progresses to invasive cancer. CONCLUSIONS: An estimated 148-687 additional breast cancer deaths may occur as a result of the pandemic-related disruptions. The impact depends on how quickly screening services catch up with delays.

Factors associated with mobility outcomes in older people post-ankle fracture: an observational cohort study focussing on peripheral vessel function.

INTRODUCTION: There are increasing numbers of older persons sustaining ankle fractures. This injury often results in a degree of functional limitation, particularly in older patients. There is currently limited research into factors associated with mobility outcomes. DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING: Hospital Trauma Department, UK. PARTICIPANTS: Persons aged 60 years or over who sustained an unstable ankle fracture with no established peripheral arterial disease pre-injury. METHODS: This study investigated the association between ankle-brachial pressure index (ABPI) and extended timed 'up and go' (TUG) measures. Associations between TUG outcomes and age, pre-morbid functional mobility (Olerud-Molander Ankle Score) and fracture severity (number of malleoli injured) were also explored. ANALYSIS: Complete cases (n=76; 84% of cohort) were entered into univariate and multivariate linear regression. RESULTS: No association was found between ABPI and TUG at 6 months in unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Pre-morbid functional mobility (B=-0.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.45 to -0.23, p<0.001) and age (B=0.46, 95% CI 0.25-0.66, p<0.001) were associated with extended TUG values (r2=0.53, p<0.001). Fracture severity was not a significant independent predictor variable. CONCLUSIONS: Peripheral vessel function and fracture severity may have a limited independent influence on mobility outcome after ankle fracture in those patients who do not have established pre-injury peripheral arterial disease. Age and pre-morbid mobility gave an indication of mobility outcome, but a substantial amount of variance remains unexplained. Limitations of this study, including missing data and potential residual confounding, indicate the need for caution in generalising these results. The study provides a basis on which to plan larger studies of the factors associated with mobility outcome after ankle fracture in older populations.

Invitation management initiative to improve uptake of breast cancer screening in an urban UK Primary Care Trust.

OBJECTIVES: In an attempt to improve breast cancer screening uptake and coverage, persistent non-attenders in the Heart of Birmingham Teaching Primary Care Trust were included in an invitation management initiative. METHODS: Persistent non-attenders were identified in routine screening lists. Phone contact was attempted or a home visit was made. If the case was not resolved, a second appointment was made and further phone calls and home visits were attempted. RESULTS: Of 548 persistent non-attenders identified, 228 (42%) declined screening, 171 (31%) attended, 72 (13%) had moved away or died, 11 (2%) were recently screened or under care for other conditions. Sixty-six cases (12%) remained unresolved. Fourteen women opted to be permanently withdrawn from the National Health Service Breast Screening Programme (NHSBSP). Twenty-four women had a negative experience of breast cancer screening (defaulted, recalled for assessment, recalled for technical reasons). No malignancies were found. A total of 1375 phone calls and 230 home visits were attempted. Uptake would have been 62.2% if none of the persistent non-attenders included in the initiative had attended for screening. With the initiative, uptake of breast cancer screening was increased to 65.3%. CONCLUSIONS: Phone calls and home visits resulted in only a moderate increase in breast cancer screening uptake. The initiative encouraged nervous attenders who were reassured about the screening process. However, more women declined screening than were screened and the initiative made it easier for women to request to be permanently withdrawn from the NHSBSP.

Natural history of the common iliac artery in the presence of an abdominal aortic aneurysm.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with an abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) often develop common iliac artery (CIA) aneurysms. We wished to assess the natural history of the CIA in the presence of an AAA and develop a model to predict CIA growth. METHODS: Data were gathered at a single center from 1996 to 2006 in patients undergoing AAA surveillance. Maximum size of AAA and both CIAs at yearly intervals were collected. CIA > 16 mm was defined as being an aneurysm. A mixed effects regression model was generated to predict CIA growth rates. RESULTS: One hundred ninety-one patients with AAA underwent duplex ultrasound on at least two occasions (median, 4; range, 2-11). Average baseline CIA was 12 mm (standard deviation, 5.0); 41% of patients had one CIA over 16 mm. A CIA > 16 mm was more likely to expand (81% vs 53%, P = .0001) particularly in patients with an AAA that expanded (73% vs 43%, P = .0005). A larger AAA was associated with a larger CIA (P = .0341). CIA growth rate was proportional to baseline size. A CIA of 16 mm was predicted to take 10 years to reach 25 mm (156% or 5.6% per annum) or if 23 mm at baseline 10 years to reach 35 mm (152% or 5.2% per annum). Overall, a CIA was predicted to increase in diameter by 5.7% (+/- 0.5%) per annum. CONCLUSION: The CIA in the presence of an AAA expands over time. CIA > 16 mm are more likely to increase. Routine duplex examination of a CIA less than 16 mm may not be necessary when following up AAA. These data may be used to aid planning and intervention during AAA repair.

The West Midlands breast cancer screening status algorithm - methodology and use as an audit tool.

OBJECTIVES: To illustrate the ability of the West Midlands breast screening status algorithm to assign a screening status to women with malignant breast cancer, and its uses as a quality assurance and audit tool. METHODS: Breast cancers diagnosed between the introduction of the National Health Service [NHS] Breast Screening Programme and 31 March 2001 were obtained from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU). Screen-detected tumours were identified via breast screening units, and the remaining cancers were assigned to one of eight screening status categories. Multiple primaries and recurrences were excluded. RESULTS: A screening status was assigned to 14,680 women (96% of the cohort examined), 110 cancers were not registered at the WMCIU and the cohort included 120 screen-detected recurrences. CONCLUSIONS: The West Midlands breast screening status algorithm is a robust simple tool which can be used to derive data to evaluate the efficacy and impact of the NHS Breast Screening Programme.