Correlating Reiff scores with clinical, functional, and prognostic factors: characterizing noncystic fibrosis bronchiectasis severity: validation from a nationwide multicenter study in Taiwan.

BACKGROUND: Our study aimed to confirm a simplified radiological scoring system, derived from a modified Reiff score, to evaluate its relationship with clinical symptoms and predictive outcomes in Taiwanese patients with noncystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (NCFB). METHODS: This extensive multicenter retrospective study, performed in Taiwan, concentrated on patients diagnosed with NCFB verified through high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) scans. We not only compared the clinical features of various types of bronchiectasis (cylindrical, varicose, and cystic). Furthermore, we established relationships between the severity of clinical factors, including symptom scores, pulmonary function, pseudomonas aeruginosa colonization, exacerbation and admission rates, and HRCT parameters using modified Reiff scores. RESULTS: Data from 2,753 patients were classified based on HRCT patterns (cylindrical, varicose, and cystic) and severity, assessed by modified Reiff scores (mild, moderate, and severe). With increasing HRCT severity, a significant correlation was found with decreased forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1) (p < 0.001), heightened clinical symptoms (p < 0.001), elevated pathogen colonization (pseudomonas aeruginosa) (p < 0.001), and an increased annual hospitalization rate (p < 0.001). In the following multivariate analysis, elderly age, pseudomonas aeruginosa pneumonia, and hospitalizations per year emerged as the only independent predictors of mortality. CONCLUSION: Based on our large cohort study, the simplified CT scoring system (Reiff score) can serve as a useful adjunct to clinical factors in predicting disease severity and prognosis among Taiwanese patients with NCFB.

MCL1 inhibition: a promising approach to augment the efficacy of sorafenib in NSCLC through ferroptosis induction.

Ferroptosis, an iron-dependent form of regulated cell death, plays a crucial role in modulating the therapeutic response in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Studies have identified the signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3) and myeloid cell leukemia-1 (MCL1) as potential targets for sorafenib, which exhibits activities in inducing ferroptosis. However, the role of STAT3-MCL1 axis in sorafenib-induced ferroptosis in NSCLC is still unclear. This study provided evidence that ferroptosis is a critical driver of sorafenib-induced cell death in NSCLC, supported by the accumulation of lipid peroxidation products, indicative of oxidative stress-induced cell death. Additionally, both in vitro and in vivo experiments showed that ferroptosis contributed to a significant portion of the anti-cancer effects elicited by sorafenib in NSCLC. The noticeable accumulation of lipid peroxidation products in sorafenib-treated mice underscored the significance of ferroptosis as a contributing factor to the therapeutic response of sorafenib in NSCLC. Furthermore, we identified the involvement of the STAT3/MCL1 axis in sorafenib-induced antitumor activity in NSCLC. Mechanistically, sorafenib inhibited endogenous STAT3 activation and downregulated MCL1 protein expression, consequently unleashing the ferroptosis driver BECN1 from the BECN1-MCL1 complex. Conversely, there is an augmented association of BECN1 with the catalytic subunit of system Xc-, SLC7A11, whose activity to import cystine and alleviate lipid peroxidation is hindered upon its binding with BECN1. Notably, we found that MCL1 upregulation correlated with ferroptosis resistance in NSCLC upon sorafenib treatment. Our findings highlight the importance of sorafenib-triggered ferroptosis in NSCLC and offer a novel strategy to treat advanced NSCLC patients: by downregulating MCL1 and, in turn, predispose NSCLC cells to ferroptosis.

Study on red blood cell distribution width in children with severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia.

Background: This study aimed to investigate the clinical value of the red blood cell distribution width (RDW) in severe Mycoplasma pneumoniae pneumonia (MPP). Methods: A total of 185 children with diagnosed severe MPP were included. The patients' case records and laboratory examination data were analyzed retrospectively. The children were grouped into quartiles based on RDW. Results: Univariate analysis revealed that RDW was significantly correlated with the Pediatric Risk of Mortality (PRISM) III score, Sepsis-Related Organ Failure Assessment score, incidence of invasive intubation and 30-day in-hospital mortality. After adjustment for the severity of illness, multivariate analysis revealed that the PRISM III score and RDW were factors independently associated with 30-day in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: This study revealed that RDW could be correlated with the long-term prognosis and severity of severe MPP.

The influence of prior use of inhaled corticosteroids on COVID-19 outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

The influence of inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) on COVID-19 outcomes remains uncertain. To address this, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis, analyzing 30 studies, to investigate the impact of ICS on patients with COVID-19. Our study focused on various outcomes, including mortality risk, hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), mechanical ventilation (MV) utilization, and length of hospital stay. Additionally, we conducted a subgroup analysis to assess the effect of ICS on patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma. Our findings suggest that the prior use of ICS did not lead to significant differences in mortality risk, ICU admission, hospitalization, or MV utilization between individuals who had used ICS previously and those who had not. However, in the subgroup analysis of patients with COPD, prior ICS use was associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to non-users (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.90-1.00). Overall, while the use of ICS did not significantly affect COVID-19 outcomes in general, it may have beneficial effects specifically for patients with COPD. Nevertheless, more research is needed to establish a definitive conclusion on the role of ICS in COVID-19 treatment. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42021279429.

Recommended assessment and management of sleep disordered breathing in patients with atrial fibrillation, hypertension and heart failure: Taiwan Society of Cardiology/Taiwan Society of sleep Medicine/Taiwan Society of pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine joint consensus statement.

Sleep disordered breathing (SDB) is highly prevalent and may be linked to cardiovascular disease in a bidirectional manner. The Taiwan Society of Cardiology, Taiwan Society of Sleep Medicine and Taiwan Society of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine established a task force of experts to evaluate the evidence regarding the assessment and management of SDB in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), hypertension and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The GRADE process was used to assess the evidence associated with 15 formulated questions. The task force developed recommendations and determined strength (Strong, Weak) and direction (For, Against) based on the quality of evidence, balance of benefits and harms, patient values and preferences, and resource use. The resulting 11 recommendations are intended to guide clinicians in determining which the specific patient-care strategy should be utilized by clinicians based on the needs of individual patients.

P2 purinergic receptors regulate the progression of colorectal cancer.

More and more studies have revealed that P2 purinergic receptors play a key role in the progression of colorectal cancer (CRC). P2X and P2Y purinergic receptors can be used as promoters and regulators of CRC and play a dual role in the progression of CRC. CRC microenvironment is rich in ATP and its cleavage products (ADP, AMP, Ado), which act as activators of P2X and P2Y purinergic receptors. The activation of P2X and P2Y purinergic receptors regulates the progression of CRC mainly by regulating the function of immune cells and mediating different signal pathways. In this paper, we focus on the specific mechanisms and functional roles of P2X7, P2Y12, and P2Y2 receptors in the growth and progression of CRC. The antagonistic effects of these selective antagonists of P2X purinergic receptors on the growth, invasion, and metastasis of CRC were further discussed. Moreover, different studies have reported that P2X7 receptor can be used as an effective predictor of patients with CRC. All these indicate that P2 purinergic receptors are a key regulator of CRC. Therefore, antagonizing P2 purinergic receptors may be an innovative treatment for CRC.

Assessing the cardiovascular events and clinical outcomes of COVID-19 on patients with primary aldosteronism.

BACKGROUND: Primary Aldosteronism (PA) is a common subtype of hypertension that increases the risk of adverse cardiovascular and kidney events. The impact of COVID-19 on patients with PA is not well understood. This study aimed to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on patients with PA and compare their outcomes with hypertensive patients with essential hypertension. METHODS: A cohort study was conducted using data from the Trinetx platform, including 9,817,307 participants enrolled between January 1, 2020, and July 31, 2022. The study group consisted of participants who tested positive for PCR SARS-CoV-2. The primary outcome was critical care and all-cause mortality, while the secondary outcomes were major adverse cardiac events (MACE) or major adverse kidney events (MAKE). The study included 4814 patients with PA and 4814 hypertensive controls. RESULTS: Patients with PA had a higher risk of critical outcomes than the hypertensive control group (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.14, p = 0.001). Moreover, they had higher risks of MACE (aHR 1.32, p < 0.001) and MAKE (aHR 1.36, p < 0.001) for up to 180 days after COVID-19. The analysis of the aHR as a horizon plot after discharge showed that patients with pre-existing PA and COVID-19 had the highest risk of critical outcomes at 7 months (aHR = 1.21), MACE (aHR = 1.35) at 9 months, and MAKE (aHR = 1.47) at 10 months compared to those with EH. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the cardiovascular impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on individuals with PA. The findings underscore the increased risk of mortality, critical care, MACE, and MAKE among patients with PA and COVID-19. The study highlights the need for continued optimization of strategies for follow-up care for patients with PA after SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Dipeptidyl peptidase IV inhibitors and the risk of mycobacterial pulmonary infections in type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) is a risk factor for mycobacterial pulmonary infections (MPI), including tuberculosis (TB) and nontuberculous mycobacterial lung disease (NTM-LD). Dipeptidyl peptidase IV inhibitor (DPP4i), a common DM medication, has an immune-modulation effect that raises concerns about developing MPI. However, there is scarce research on the topic. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in a tertiary-referral center in Taiwan from 2009 to 2016. Patients with type 2 DM who were receiving any DM medication were enrolled. TB and NTM-LD were defined by microbiological criteria. We analyzed the risk of MPI in DPP4i users using Cox proportional hazard regression with adjusted inverse probability of treatment weighting. RESULTS: A total of 9963 patients were included. Among them, 3931 were classified as DPP4i users, and 6032 patients were DPP4i nonusers. DPP4i users had no increase in incidences of MPI (604 vs. 768 per 100,000 person-years, p = 0.776), NTM-LD (174 vs. 255 per 100,000 person-years, p = 0.228), and TB (542 vs. 449 per 100,000 person-years, p = 0.663) relative to those of DPP4i nonusers. After adjustment, the adjusted hazard ratios for MPI (aHR: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.79-1.45), TB (aHR: 1.15, 95% CI: 0.81-1.64) and NTM-LD (aHR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.49-1.47) were not significantly increased relative to those of nonusers. The subgroup analysis also showed that DPP4i use did not increase the risk of MPI in different DM severities and comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: According to our large cohort study, DPP4i use is safe for patients with type 2 DM and might not increase the risk of MPI.

Targeting pathogenic macrophages by the application of SHP-1 agonists reduces inflammation and alleviates pulmonary fibrosis.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a progressive fibrotic disorder with no cure that is characterized by deterioration of lung function. Current FDA-approved drugs for IPF delay the decline in lung function, but neither reverse fibrosis nor significantly improve overall survival. SHP-1 deficiency results in hyperactive alveolar macrophages accumulating in the lung, which contribute to the induction of pulmonary fibrosis. Herein, we investigated whether employing a SHP-1 agonist ameliorates pulmonary fibrosis in a bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis murine model. Histological examination and micro-computed tomography images showed that SHP-1 agonist treatment alleviates bleomycin-induced pulmonary fibrosis. Reduced alveolar hemorrhage, lung inflammation, and collagen deposition, as well as enhanced alveolar space, lung capacity, and improved overall survival were observed in mice administered the SHP-1 agonist. The percentage of macrophages collected from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid and circulating monocytes in bleomycin-instilled mice were also significantly reduced by SHP-1 agonist treatment, suggesting that the SHP-1 agonist may alleviate pulmonary fibrosis by targeting macrophages and reshaping the immunofibrotic niche. In human monocyte-derived macrophages, SHP-1 agonist treatment downregulated CSF1R expression and inactivated STAT3/NFκB signaling, culminating in inhibited macrophage survival and perturbed macrophage polarization. The expression of pro-fibrotic markers (e.g., MRC1, CD200R1, and FN1) by IL4/IL13-induced M2 macrophages that rely on CSF1R signaling for their fate-determination was restricted by SHP-1 agonist treatment. While M2-derived medium promoted the expression of fibroblast-to-myofibroblast transition markers (e.g., ACTA2 and COL3A1), the application of SHP-1 agonist reversed the transition in a dose-dependent manner. Our report indicates that pharmacological activation of SHP-1 ameliorates pulmonary fibrosis via suppression of CSF1R signaling in macrophages, reduction of pathogenic macrophages, and the inhibition of fibroblast-to-myofibroblast transition. Our study thus identifies SHP-1 as a druggable target for the treatment of IPF, and suggests that the SHP-1 agonist may be developed as an anti-pulmonary fibrosis medication that both suppresses inflammation and restrains fibroblast-to-myofibroblast transition.

P2Y12 receptor involved in the development of chronic nociceptive pain as a sensory information mediator.

Direct or indirect damage to the nervous system (such as inflammation or tumor invasion) can lead to dysfunction and pain. The generation of pain is mainly reflected in the activation of glial cells and the abnormal discharge of sensory neurons, which transmit stronger sensory information to the center. P2Y12 receptor plays important roles in physiological and pathophysiological processes including inflammation and pain. P2Y12 receptor involved in the occurrence of pain as a sensory information mediator, which enhances the activation of microglia and the synaptic plasticity of primary sensory neurons, and reaches the higher center through the ascending conduction pathway (mainly spinothalamic tract) to produce pain. While the application of P2Y12 receptor antagonists (PBS-0739, AR-C69931MX and MRS2359) have better antagonistic activity and produce analgesic pharmacological properties. Therefore, in this article, we discussed the role of the P2Y12 receptor in different chronic pains and its use as a pharmacological target for pain relief.

Premorbid use of selective beta-blockers improves sepsis incidence and course: Human cohort and animal model studies.

Introduction: Beta-blockers are widely prescribed to manage hypertension and cardiovascular diseases and have been suggested as an attractive therapy to improve the prognosis of sepsis. Herein, we investigated the potential benefits of premorbid selective beta-blocker use in sepsis with a real-world database and explored the underlying mechanism by in vivo and in vitro experiments. Methods: A total of 64,070 sepsis patients and 64,070 matched controls who were prescribed at least one anti-hypertensive drug for more than 300 days within 1 year were selected for the nested case-control study. Female C57BL/6 J mice and THP-1 cells stimulated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) were used for studying systemic responses during sepsis to validate our clinical findings. Results: The risk of sepsis was lower in current selective beta-blocker users than in non-users (adjusted OR (aOR), 0.842; 95% CI, 0.755-0.939), and in recent users than in non-users (aOR, 0.773; 95% CI, 0.737-0.810). A mean daily dose of ≥0.5 DDD was associated with a lower risk of sepsis (aOR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.676-0.725). Metoprolol, atenolol, and bisoprolol users had lower risk of sepsis than non-users. In a LPS-induced sepsis mouse model, mice pre-fed with atenolol had significantly reduced mortality. While atenolol had some mild effects on LPS-induced release of inflammatory cytokines in septic mice, it significantly reduced serum soluble PD-L1 levels. Notably, atenolol treatment reversed the negative correlation of sPD-L1 with inflammatory cytokines in septic mice. Moreover, atenolol markedly downregulated the PD-L1 expression on LPS-stimulated THP-1 monocytes/macrophages via targeting ROS-induced NF-κB and STAT3 activation. Conclusion: Atenolol pretreatment can reduce sepsis mortality in mice, and in vivo and in vitro studies of PD-L1 expression suggest a role for atenolol in the modulation of immune homeostasis. These findings may contribute to the reduced incidence of sepsis in hypertensive patients with premorbid treatment with selective beta-blockers, especially atenolol.

The association between inhaled corticosteroid and the risks of SARS-COV-2 infection: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The effect of inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) on the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-COV-2) infection is unclear. METHODS: We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical studies that assessed the association between the use of ICS and the risk of SARS-COV-2 infection. PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Cochrane Library and Google Scholar were searched to January 1st, 2023. ROBINS-I was used to assess risk of bias of included studies. The outcome of interest was the risk of SARS-COV-2 infection in patients and odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated using Comprehensive Meta-analysis software version 3. RESULTS: Twelve studies involving seven observational cohort studies, three case-control studies, and two cross-sectional studies were included in this meta-analysis. Overall, compared to non-ICS use, the pooled odds ratio (OR) of the risk of SARS-COV-2 infection was 0.997 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.664-1.499; p = 0.987) for patients with ICS use. Subgroup analyses demonstrated no statistical significance in the increased risk of SARS-COV-2 infection in patients with ICS monotherapy or in combination with bronchodilators (pooled OR=1.408; 95% CI=0.693-2.858; p = 0.344 in ICS monotherapy, and pooled OR=1.225; 95% CI=0.533-2.815; p = 0.633 in ICS combination, respectively). In addition, no significant association was observed between ICS use and the risk of SARS-COV-2 infection for patients with COPD (pooled OR=0.715; 95% CI=0.415-1.230; p = 0.225) and asthma (pooled OR=1.081; 95% CI=0.970-1.206; p = 0.160). CONCLUSIONS: The use of ICS, either monotherapy or in combination with bronchodilators, does not have impact on the risk of SARS-COV-2 infection.

Transcription factor 21 accelerates vascular calcification in mice by activating the IL-6/STAT3 signaling pathway and the interplay between VSMCs and ECs.

Vascular calcification is caused by the deposition of calcium salts in the intimal or tunica media layer of the aorta, which increases the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. However, the mechanisms underlying vascular calcification are not fully clarified. Recently it has been shown that transcription factor 21 (TCF21) is highly expressed in human and mouse atherosclerotic plaques. In this study we investigated the role of TCF21 in vascular calcification and the underlying mechanisms. In carotid artery atherosclerotic plaques collected from 6 patients, we found that TCF21 expression was upregulated in calcific areas. We further demonstrated TCF21 expression was increased in an in vitro vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) osteogenesis model. TCF21 overexpression promoted osteogenic differentiation of VSMC, whereas TCF21 knockdown in VSMC attenuated the calcification. Similar results were observed in ex vivo mouse thoracic aorta rings. Previous reports showed that TCF21 bound to myocardin (MYOCD) to inhibit the transcriptional activity of serum response factor (SRF)-MYOCD complex. We found that SRF overexpression significantly attenuated TCF21-induced VSMC and aortic ring calcification. Overexpression of SRF, but not MYOCD, reversed TCF21-inhibited expression of contractile genes SMA and SM22. More importantly, under high inorganic phosphate (3 mM) condition, SRF overexpression reduced TCF21-induced expression of calcification-related genes (BMP2 and RUNX2) as well as vascular calcification. Moreover, TCF21 overexpression enhanced IL-6 expression and downstream STAT3 activation to facilitate vascular calcification. Both LPS and STAT3 could induce TCF21 expression, suggesting that the inflammation and TCF21 might form a positive feedback loop to amplify the activation of IL-6/STAT3 signaling pathway. On the other hand, TCF21 induced production of inflammatory cytokines IL-1ß and IL-6 in endothelial cells (ECs) to promote VSMC osteogenesis. In EC-specific TCF21 knockout (TCF21ECKO) mice, VD3 and nicotine-induced vascular calcification was significantly reduced. Our results suggest that TCF21 aggravates vascular calcification by activating IL-6/STAT3 signaling and interplay between VSMC and EC, which provides new insights into the pathogenesis of vascular calcification. TCF21 enhances vascular calcification by activating the IL-6-STAT3 signaling pathway. TCF21 inhibition may be a new potential therapeutic strategy for the prevention and treatment of vascular calcification.

Nickel/Copper Cooperative Catalysis Decarbonylative Heteroarylation of Aryl Anhydrides with Benzoxazoles via C-O/C-H Coupling.

A new strategy for the synthesis of 2-arylbenzoxazole derivatives via nickel-/copper-catalyzed decarbonylative heteroarylation of aryl anhydrides via C-O/C-H coupling has been developed. The reaction is promoted by a user-friendly, inexpensive, and air- and moisture-stable Ni precatalyst. A variety of 2-arylbenzoxazole derivatives have been successfully synthesized and have good functional group tolerance in this process, which afforded products in moderate-to-excellent yields.

Liver X receptor agonists exert antitumor effects against hepatocellular carcinoma via inducing REPS2 expression.

Recent studies show that liver X receptor (LXR) agonists exert significant antitumor effects in a variety of tumor cell lines including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). But the molecular mechanisms underlying LXR antitumor activity are not fully understood. In this study we investigated the effect of LXR agonist T0901317 (T317) on HCC development and its relationship with RalA binding protein 1 (RALBP1)-associated EPS domain containing 2 (REPS2)/epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) signaling axis. We showed that T317 (0.1-0.5 µM) dose-dependently increased REPS2 expression in normal hepatocytes (BNLCL.2 and LO2) and HCC cells (HepG2 and Huh-7). Using promoter activity assay and chromatin immunoprecipitation (CHIP) assay we demonstrated that T317 enhanced REPS2 expression at the transcriptional level via promoting the binding of LXR protein to the LXR-response element (LXRE) in the REPS2 promoter region. We showed that the inhibitory effect of T317 on the proliferation and migration of HCC cells was closely related to REPS2. Moreover, we revealed that T317 (400 nM) increased expression of REPS2 in HepG2 cells, thus inhibiting epidermal growth factor (EGF)-mediated endocytosis of EGFR as well as the downstream activation of AKT/NF-κB, p38MAPK, and ERK1/2 signaling pathways. Clinical data analysis revealed that REPS2 expression levels were inversely correlated with the development of HCC and reduced REPS2 expression associated with poor prognosis, suggesting that REPS2 might be involved in the development of HCC. In conclusion, this study provides new insights into the potential mechanisms of LXR agonist-inhibited HCC.

SHP-1/STAT3-Signaling-Axis-Regulated Coupling between BECN1 and SLC7A11 Contributes to Sorafenib-Induced Ferroptosis in Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

Ferroptosis is a type of iron-dependent cell death pertaining to an excess of lipid peroxidation. It has been suggested that sorafenib-an anti-angiogenic medication for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC)-induces ferroptosis, but the underlying mechanism for this remains largely unknown. We employed siRNA-mediated gene silencing to investigate the role of Src homology region 2 domain-containing phosphatase-1 (SHP-1), following sorafenib treatment, in cystine/glutamate-antiporter-system-Xc--regulated cystine uptake. Co-immunoprecipitation was also performed to examine the interactions between MCL1, beclin 1 (BECN1), and solute carrier family 7 member 11 (SLC7A11), which functions as the catalytic subunit of system Xc-. The results of this study showed that sorafenib enhanced the activity of SHP-1, dephosphorylated STAT3, downregulated the expression of MCL1 and, consequently, reduced the association between MCL1 and BECN1. In contrast, increased binding between BECN1 and SLC7A11 was observed following sorafenib treatment. The elevated interaction between BECN1 and SLC7A11 inhibited the activity of system Xc-, whereas BECN1 silencing restored cystine intake and protected cells from ferroptosis. Notably, ectopic expression of MCL1 uncoupled BECN1 from SLC7A11 and rescued cell viability by attenuating lipid peroxidation. The results revealed that ferroptosis could be induced in HCC via SHP-1/STAT3-mediated downregulation of MCL1 and subsequent inhibition of SLC7A11 by increased BECN1 binding.

A Robust Design-Based Expert System for Feature Selection and COVID-19 Pandemic Prediction in Japan.

Expert systems are frequently used to make predictions in various areas. However, the practical robustness of expert systems is not as good as expected, mainly due to the fact that finding an ideal system configuration from a specific dataset is a challenging task. Therefore, how to optimize an expert system has become an important issue of research. In this paper, a new method called the robust design-based expert system is proposed to bridge this gap. The technical process of this system consists of data initialization, configuration generation, a genetic algorithm (GA) framework for feature selection, and a robust mechanism that helps the system find a configuration with the highest robustness. The system will finally obtain a set of features, which can be used to predict a pandemic based on given data. The robust mechanism can increase the efficiency of the system. The configuration for training is optimized by means of a genetic algorithm (GA) and the Taguchi method. The effectiveness of the proposed system in predicting epidemic trends is examined using a real COVID-19 dataset from Japan. For this dataset, the average prediction accuracy was 60%. Additionally, 10 representative features were also selected, resulting in a selection rate of 67% with a reduction rate of 33%. The critical features for predicting the epidemic trend of COVID-19 were also obtained, including new confirmed cases, ICU patients, people vaccinated, population, population density, hospital beds per thousand, middle age, aged 70 or older, and GDP per capital. The main contribution of this paper is two-fold: Firstly, this paper has bridged the gap between the pandemic research and expert systems with robust predictive performance. Secondly, this paper proposes a feature selection method for extracting representative variables and predicting the epidemic trend of a pandemic disease. The prediction results indicate that the system is valuable to healthcare authorities and can help governments get hold of the epidemic trend and strategize their use of healthcare resources.

The Clinical Efficacy and Safety of Anti-Viral Agents for Non-Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials.

This network meta-analysis compared the clinical efficacy and safety of anti-viral agents for the prevention of disease progression among non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, ClinicalTrials.gov and the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform were searched from their inception to 28 May 2022. Only randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that investigated the clinical efficacy of anti-viral agents for non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19 were included. Three RCTs involving 4241 patients were included. Overall, anti-viral agents were associated with a significantly lower risk of COVID-19 related hospitalization or death compared with the placebo (OR, 0.23; 95% CI: 0.06-0.96; p = 0.04). Compared with the placebo, patients receiving nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir had the lowest risk of hospitalization or death (OR, 0.12; 95% CI: 0.06-0.24), followed by remdesivir (OR, 0.13; 95% CI: 0.03-0.57) and then molnupiravir (OR, 0.67; 95% CI: 0.46-0.99). The rank probability for each treatment calculated using the P-score revealed that nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir was the best anti-viral treatment, followed by remdesivir and then molnupiravir. Finally, anti-viral agents were not associated with an increased risk of adverse events compared with the placebo. For non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19 who are at risk of disease progression, the currently recommended three anti-viral agents, nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir, molnupiravir and remdesivir, should continue to be recommended for the prevention of disease progression. Among them, oral nirmatrelvir plus ritonavir and intravenous remdesivir seem to be the better choice, followed by molnupiravir, as determined by this network meta-analysis. Additionally, these three anti-viral agents were shown to be as tolerable as the placebo in this clinical setting.