Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Nigeria: cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply, but the potential health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness are unknown. METHODS: The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and trans-fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Avoided IHD events and deaths; health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained; and healthcare, policy implementation and net costs were estimated over 10 years and the population's lifetime. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population's lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria.

Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating dietary industrial trans fatty acids in Kenya: cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To model the potential health gains and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory limit of industrial trans fatty acids (iTFA) in Kenyan foods. DESIGN: Multiple cohort proportional multistate life table model, incorporating existing data from the Global Burden of Disease study, pooled analyses of observational studies and peer-reviewed evidence of healthcare and policy implementation costs. SETTING: Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥20 years at baseline (n=50 million). INTERVENTION: A mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) in the Kenyan food supply compared with a base case scenario of maintaining current trans fat intake. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Averted ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events and deaths, health-adjusted life years; healthcare costs; policy implementation costs; net costs; and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: Over the first 10 years, the intervention was estimated to prevent ~1900 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1714; 2148) IHD deaths and ~17 000 (95% UI: 15 475; 19 551) IHD events, and to save ~US$50 million (95% UI: 44; 56). The corresponding estimates over the lifespan of the model population were ~49 000 (95% UI: 43 775; 55 326) IHD deaths prevented, ~113 000 (95% UI: 100 104; 127 969) IHD events prevented and some ~US$300 million (256; 331) saved. Policy implementation costs were estimated as ~US$9 million over the first 10 years and ~US$20 million over the population lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost saving regardless of the time horizon. Findings were robust across multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Findings support policy action for a mandatory iTFA limit as a cost-saving strategy to avert IHD events and deaths in Kenya.

Physical Activity and Depression and Anxiety Disorders: A Systematic Review of Reviews and Assessment of Causality.

Introduction: Globally, depressive and anxiety disorders are the leading contributors to mental ill health. Physical activity reduces symptoms of depression and anxiety and has been proposed as an adjunct treatment therapy for depression and anxiety. Prospective studies suggest that physical activity may reduce the incidence of depression and anxiety. We conducted a systematic review of reviews with the aim to provide a comprehensive overview of available epidemiologic evidence on the strength of the association between physical activity and incident cases of depression and anxiety and to assess the likelihood of these associations being causal. Methods: We searched Embase and PubMed databases for systematic reviews published between January 1, 2000 and March 19, 2020 that reported findings on the strength of association between physical activity and incidence of depression and anxiety. We updated this search to October 15, 2022. Two reviewers independently assessed the methodologic quality of the included reviews using the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews rating scale. We carried out a narrative synthesis of the evidence. We used the Bradford Hill criteria to assess the likelihood of associations being causal. Results: The initial search yielded 770 articles, of which 4 remained for data extraction. Two of the included reviews were scored as high quality, and 2 were scored as low quality. From the 2 included reviews that reported pooled estimates, people with high physical activity levels were found to have a decreased risk of incident depression (adjusted RR=0.83, 95% CI=0.76, 0.90) and reduced odds of developing anxiety (adjusted OR=0.74,95% CI=0.62, 0.88) when compared with those with low physical activity levels. We assessed physical activity to be probably causally related to both depression and anxiety. Discussion: Our evidence is drawn from systematic reviews of observational data. Further high-quality studies, such as randomized control trials, would help to strengthen the evidence base of the associations between physical activity and depression and anxiety. Nonetheless, our findings provide empirical support for the consideration of physical activity in strategies for the prevention of mental ill health.

Physical Activity and Depression and Anxiety Disorders in Australia: A Lifetable Analysis.

Introduction: Mental disorders, in particular, depressive and anxiety disorders, are a leading cause of disability in Australia and globally. Physical activity may reduce the incidence of anxiety and depression, and this supports the inclusion of physical activity in strategies for the prevention of mental ill health. Policy makers need to know the potential impact and cost savings of such strategies. We aimed to quantify the impact of changes in physical activity on the burden of anxiety and depression and healthcare costs in Australia. Methods: We used a proportional multistate lifetable model to estimate the impact of changes in physical activity levels on anxiety and depression burdens for the 2019 Australian population (numbering 24.6 million) over their remaining lifetime. The changes in physical activity were modeled through 3 counterfactual scenarios informed by policy targets: attainment of the Australian Physical Activity Guidelines and achievement of the WHO Global Action Plan on Physical Activity targets of a 10% relative reduction in the prevalence of insufficient physical activity by 2025 and a 15% relative reduction by 2030. Results: If all Australians adhered to the recommended minimum physical activity levels, in 25 years' time, the burden of anxiety could be reduced by up to 6.4% (95% uncertainty intervals=2.5, 10.6), and that of depression could be reduced by 4.4% (95% uncertainty intervals=2.3, 6.5). Over the lifetime of the 2019 Australian population, the gains could add up to 640,592 health-adjusted life years for anxiety (26 health-adjusted life years per 1,000 persons), 523,717 health-adjusted life years for depression (21 health-adjusted life years per 1,000 persons), and healthcare cost savings of 5.4 billion Australian dollars for anxiety (220 Australian dollars per capita) and 5.8 billion for depression (237 Australian dollars per capita). Conclusions: Adherence to the Australian physical activity guidelines and achievement of the 2025 and 2030 global physical activity targets could lead to a substantial reduction of the burden of anxiety and depression. This study provides empirical support for the inclusion of physical activity in strategies for the prevention of mental ill health. Future studies should also assess the size and distribution of the benefits for different socioeconomic and ethnic groups.

The health and economic impact and cost effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya: a stakeholder engaged modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The global increase in mean body mass index has resulted in a substantial increase of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including in many low- and middle-income countries such as Kenya. This paper assesses four interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya to determine their potential health and economic impact and cost effectiveness. METHODS: We reviewed the literature to identify evidence of effect, determine the intervention costs, disease costs and total healthcare costs. We used a proportional multistate life table model to quantify the potential impacts on health conditions and healthcare costs, modelling the 2019 Kenya population over their remaining lifetime. Considering a health system perspective, two interventions were assessed for cost-effectiveness. In addition, we used the Human Capital Approach to estimate productivity gains. RESULTS: Over the lifetime of the 2019 population, impacts were estimated at 203,266 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 163,752 - 249,621) for a 20% tax on sugar-sweetened beverages, 151,718 HALYs (95% UI 55,257 - 250,412) for mandatory kilojoule menu labelling, 3.7 million HALYs (95% UI 2,661,365-4,789,915) for a change in consumption levels related to supermarket food purchase patterns and 13.1 million HALYs (95% UI 11,404,317 - 15,152,341) for a change in national consumption back to the 1975 average levels of energy intake. This translates to 4, 3, 73 and 261 HALYs per 1,000 persons. Lifetime healthcare cost savings were approximately United States Dollar (USD) 0.14 billion (USD 3 per capita), USD 0.08 billion (USD 2 per capita), USD 1.9 billion (USD 38 per capita) and USD 6.2 billion (USD 124 per capita), respectively. Lifetime productivity gains were approximately USD 1.8 billion, USD 1.2 billion, USD 28 billion and USD 92 billion. Both the 20% tax on sugar sweetened beverages and the mandatory kilojoule menu labelling were assessed for cost effectiveness and found dominant (health promoting and cost-saving). CONCLUSION: All interventions evaluated yielded substantive health gains and economic benefits and should be considered for implementation in Kenya.

The Potential Impact of Physical Activity on the Burden of Osteoarthritis and Low Back Pain in Australia: A Systematic Review of Reviews and Life Table Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The objectives were (1) to establish the strength of the association between incident cases of osteoarthritis (OA) and low back pain (LBP), and physical activity (PA) and to assess the likelihood of the associations being causal; and (2) to quantify the impact of PA on the burden of OA and LBP in Australia. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review in EMBASE and PubMed databases from January 01, 2000, to April 28, 2020. We used the Bradford Hill viewpoints to assess causality. We used a proportional multistate life table model to estimate the impact of changes in the PA levels on OA and LBP burdens for the 2019 Australian population (aged ≥ 20 y) over their remaining lifetime. RESULTS: We found that both OA and LBP are possibly causally related to physical inactivity. Assuming causality, our model projected that if the 2025 World Health Organization global target for PA was met, the burden in 25 years' time could be reduced by 70,000 prevalent cases of OA and over 11,000 cases of LBP. Over the lifetime of the current adult population of Australia, the gains could add up to approximately 672,814 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for OA (ie, 27 HALYs per 1000 persons) and 114,042 HALYs for LBP (ie, 5 HALYs per 1000 persons). The HALY gains would be 1.4 times bigger if the 2030 World Health Organization global target for PA was achieved and 11 times bigger if all Australians adhered to the Australian PA guidelines. CONCLUSION: This study provides empirical support for the adoption of PA in strategies for the prevention of OA and back pain.

Estimated Impact of Achieving the Australian National Sodium Reduction Targets on Blood Pressure, Chronic Kidney Disease Burden and Healthcare Costs: A Modelling Study.

Excess sodium intake raises blood pressure which increases the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to estimate the impact of reduced sodium intake on future CKD burden in Australia. A multi-cohort proportional multistate lifetable model was developed to estimate the potential impact on CKD burden and health expenditure if the Australian Suggested Dietary Target (SDT) and the National Preventive Health Strategy 2021-2030 (NPHS) sodium target were achieved. Outcomes were projected to 2030 and over the lifetime of adults alive in 2019. Achieving the SDT and NPHS targets could lower population mean systolic blood pressure by 2.1 mmHg and 1.7 mmHg, respectively. Compared to normal routines, attaining the SDT and NPHS target by 2030 could prevent 59,220 (95% UI, 53,140-65,500) and 49,890 (44,377-55,569) incident CKD events, respectively, while postponing 568 (479-652) and 511 (426-590) CKD deaths, respectively. Over the lifetime, this generated 199,488 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) and AUD 644 million in CKD healthcare savings for the SDT and 170,425 HALYs and AUD 514 million for the NPHS. CKD due to hypertension and CKD due to other/unspecified causes were the principal contributors to the HALY gains. Lowering sodium consumption in Australia could deliver substantial CKD health and economic benefits.

The avoidable disease burden associated with overweight and obesity in Kenya: A modelling study.

Background: Globally, there is a rising burden of non-communicable diseases related to high body mass index (BMI). Estimation of the magnitude of the avoidable disease burden related to high BMI in Kenya could inform priority setting in health. Methods: Using a proportional multistate life table model, we estimated the impact of the elimination of exposure to high BMI (>22·5 kg/m2) on health adjusted life years, health adjusted life expectancy, and burden of 27 obesity-related diseases. Participants were the 2019 Kenyan population modelled over their remaining lifetime. Findings: Elimination of high BMI could save approximately 83·5 million health-adjusted life years and increase the health-adjusted life expectancy by 2·3 (95% UI 2·0-2·8) years for females and 1·0 (95% UI 0·8-1·1) years for males. Over the first 25 years, over 7·4 million new cases of BMI-related diseases could be avoided and approximately half a million BMI related deaths postponed. The cumulative number of new cases of type 2 diabetes could reduce by approximately 1·6 million, cardiovascular diseases by over 1·3 million, chronic kidney disease by 850,473 and cancer would reduce by 55,624 estimated cases. In 2044, an estimated 867,664 prevalent cases of musculoskeletal disease would be prevented. Interpretation: The magnitude of avoidable high BMI-related disease burden in Kenya underscores the need to prioritise the control and prevention of overweight and obesity globally, especially in low- and middle-income settings, where obesity rates are rising rapidly. Reducing population BMI is challenging, but sustained and well-enforced system-wide approaches could be a great starting point. Funding: Mary Njeri Wanjau is supported by the Griffith University International Postgraduate Research Scholarship (GUIPRS) and Griffith University Postgraduate Research Scholarship (GUPRS).

Stakeholder-engaged research: strategies for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: This study was done as part of a larger study that aims to identify the most impactful and cost-effective strategies for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya. Our objective was to involve stakeholders in the identification of the strategies that would be included in our larger study. The results from the stakeholder engagement are analyzed and reported in this paper. DESIGN: This was a qualitative study. A one-day stakeholder workshop that followed a deliberative dialogue process was conducted. PARTICIPANTS: A sample of stakeholders who participate in the national level policymaking process for health in Kenya. OUTCOME MEASURE: Strategies for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya. RESULTS: Out of the twenty-three stakeholders who confirmed attendance, fifteen participants attended the one-day workshop. The stakeholders identified a total of 24 strategies for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya. From the ranking process carried out the top six strategies identified were: a research-based strategy for the identification of the nutritional value of indigenous foods, implementation of health promotion strategies that focus on the creation of healthy environments, physical activity behavior such as gym attendance, jogging, walking, and running at the individual level, implementation of school curricula on nutrition and health promotion, integration of physical education into the new Competency-Based Education policy, and policies that increase use of public transport. CONCLUSION: The stakeholders identified and ranked strategies for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya. This informs future overweight and obesity prevention research and policy in Kenya and similar settings.

Stakeholder perceptions of current practices and challenges in priority setting for non-communicable disease control in Kenya: a qualitative study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the stakeholders' perceptions of current practices and challenges in priority setting for non-communicable disease (NCD) control in Kenya. DESIGN: A qualitative study approach conducted within a 1-day stakeholder workshop that followed a deliberative dialogue process. SETTING: Study was conducted within a 1-day stakeholder workshop that was held in October 2019 in Nairobi, Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: Stakeholders who currently participate in the national level policymaking process for health in Kenya. OUTCOME MEASURE: Priority setting process for NCD control in Kenya. RESULTS: Donor funding was identified as a key factor that informed the priority setting process for NCD control. Misalignment between donors' priorities and the country's priorities for NCD control was seen as a hindrance to the process. It was identified that there was minimal utilisation of context-specific evidence from locally conducted research. Additional factors seen to inform the priority setting process included political leadership, government policies and budget allocation for NCDs, stakeholder engagement, media, people's cultural and religious beliefs. CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need for development aid partners to align their priorities to the specific NCD control priority areas that exist in the countries that they extend aid to. Additionally, context-specific scientific evidence on effective local interventions for NCD control is required to inform areas of priority in Kenya and other low-income and middle-income countries. Further research is needed to develop best practice guidelines and tools for the creation of national-level priority setting frameworks that are responsive to the identified factors that inform the priority setting process for NCD control.

Health promotion at the workplace setting: a protocol for a systematic review of effectiveness and sustainability of current practice in low-income and middle-income countries.

INTRODUCTION: Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing a growing disease burden due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Changing behavioural practices, such as diets high in saturated fat, salt and sugar and sedentary lifestyles, have been associated with the increase in NCDs. Health promotion at the workplace setting is considered effective in the fight against NCDs and has been reported to yield numerous benefits. However, there is a need to generate evidence on the effectiveness and sustainability of workplace health promotion practice specific to LMICs. We aim to synthesise the current literature on workplace health promotion in LMICs focusing on interventions effectiveness and sustainability. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a systematic review of published studies from LMICs up to 31 March 2019. We will search the following databases: EMBASE, MEDLINE, PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest and CINAHL. Two reviewers will independently screen potential articles for inclusion and disagreements will be resolved by consensus. We will appraise the quality and risk of bias of included studies using two tools from the Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions. We will present a narrative overview and assessment of the body of evidence derived from the comprehensive review of the studies. The reported outcomes will be summarised by study design, duration, intensity/frequency of intervention delivery and by the six-priority health promotion action areas set out in the Ottawa Charter. We will conduct a thematic analysis to identify the focus areas of current interventions. This systematic review protocol has been prepared according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta- analyses for Protocols 2015 statement. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study does not require ethics approval. We will disseminate the results of this review through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018110853.