Correction: Spatial variation and antecedent sea surface temperature conditions influence Hawaiian intertidal community structure.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0286136.].

Spatial variation and antecedent sea surface temperature conditions influence Hawaiian intertidal community structure.

Global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are increasing, and in Hawai'i, rates of ocean warming are projected to double by the end of the 21st century. However, current nearshore warming trends and their possible impacts on intertidal communities are not well understood. This study represents the first investigation into the possible effects of rising SST on intertidal algal and invertebrate communities across the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). By utilizing citizen-science data coupled with high-resolution, daily SST satellite measurements from 12 intertidal sites across the MHI from 2004-2019, the response of intertidal algal and invertebrate abundance and community diversity to changes in SST was investigated across multiple spatial scales. Results show high rates of SST warming (0.40°C Decade-1) over this study's timeframe, similar to predicted rates of warming for Hawai'i by the end of the 21st century. Changes in abundance and diversity in response to SST were variable among intertidal sites, but differences in antecedent SST among intertidal sites were significantly associated with community dissimilarity. In addition, a statistically significant positive relationship was found between SST and Simpson's diversity index, and a significant relationship was also found between SST and the abundance of six dominant taxa. For five of these six dominant taxa, antecedent SSTs over the 6-12 months preceding sampling were the most influential for describing changes to abundance. The increase in community diversity in response to higher SSTs was best explained by temperatures in the 10 months preceding sampling, and the resultant decreased abundance of dominant turf algae. These results highlight rapidly warming nearshore SSTs in Hawai'i and the longer-term effects of antecedent SSTs as significant drivers of change within Hawaiian intertidal communities. Therefore, we suggest that future research and management should consider the possibility of lagging effects of antecedent SST on intertidal communities in Hawai'i and elsewhere.

Stacked distribution models predict climate-driven loss of variation in leaf phenology at continental scales.

Climate change is having profound effects on species distributions and is likely altering the distribution of genetic variation across landscapes. Maintaining population genetic diversity is essential for the survival of species facing rapid environmental change, and variation loss will further ecological and evolutionary change. We used trait values of spring foliar leaf-out phenology of 400 genotypes from three geographically isolated populations of Populus angustifolia grown under common conditions, in concert with stacked species distribution modeling, to ask: (a) How will climate change alter phenological variation across the P. angustifolia species-range, and within populations; and (b) will the distribution of phenological variation among and within populations converge (become more similar) in future climatic conditions? Models predicted a net loss of phenological variation in future climate scenarios on 20-25% of the landscape across the species' range, with the trailing edge population losing variation on as much as 47% of the landscape. Our models also predicted that population's phenological trait distributions will become more similar over time. This stacked distribution model approach allows for the identification of areas expected to experience the greatest loss of genetically based functional trait variation and areas that may be priorities to conserve as future genetic climate refugia.

Natural soil microbiome variation affects spring foliar phenology with consequences for plant productivity and climate-driven range shifts.

Identifying the potential for natural soil microbial communities to predictably affect complex plant traits is an important frontier in climate change research. Plant phenology varies with environmental and genetic factors, but few studies have examined whether the soil microbiome interacts with plant population differentiation to affect phenology and ecosystem function. We compared soil microbial variation in a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with different soil inoculum treatments in a common garden environment to test how the soil microbiome affects spring foliar phenology and subsequent biomass growth. We hypothesized and show that soil bacterial and fungal communities vary with tree conditioning from different populations and elevations, that this soil community variation influences patterns of foliar phenology and plant growth across populations and elevation gradients, and that transferring lower elevation plant genotypes to higher elevation soil communities delayed foliar phenology, thereby shortening the growing season and reducing annual biomass production. Our findings show the importance of plant-soil interactions that help shape the timing of tree foliar phenology and productivity. These geographic patterns in plant population × microbiome interactions also broaden our understanding of how soil communities impact plant phenotypic variation across key climate change gradients, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.

Climate-driven divergence in plant-microbiome interactions generates range-wide variation in bud break phenology.

Soil microbiomes are rapidly becoming known as an important driver of plant phenotypic variation and may mediate plant responses to environmental factors. However, integrating spatial scales relevant to climate change with plant intraspecific genetic variation and soil microbial ecology is difficult, making studies of broad inference rare. Here we hypothesize and show: 1) the degree to which tree genotypes condition their soil microbiomes varies by population across the geographic distribution of a widespread riparian tree, Populus angustifolia; 2) geographic dissimilarity in soil microbiomes among populations is influenced by both abiotic and biotic environmental variation; and 3) soil microbiomes that vary in response to abiotic and biotic factors can change plant foliar phenology. We show soil microbiomes respond to intraspecific variation at the tree genotype and population level, and geographic variation in soil characteristics and climate. Using a fully reciprocal plant population by soil location feedback experiment, we identified a climate-based soil microbiome effect that advanced and delayed bud break phenology by approximately 10 days. These results demonstrate a landscape-level feedback between tree populations and associated soil microbial communities and suggest soil microbes may play important roles in mediating and buffering bud break phenology with climate warming, with whole ecosystem implications.

Intraspecific trait variation across elevation predicts a widespread tree species' climate niche and range limits.

Global change is widely altering environmental conditions which makes accurately predicting species range limits across natural landscapes critical for conservation and management decisions. If climate pressures along elevation gradients influence the distribution of phenotypic and genetic variation of plant functional traits, then such trait variation may be informative of the selective mechanisms and adaptations that help define climatic niche limits. Using extensive field surveys along 16 elevation transects and a large common garden experiment, we tested whether functional trait variation could predict the climatic niche of a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with a double quantile regression approach. We show that intraspecific variation in plant size, growth, and leaf morphology corresponds with the species' total climate range and certain climatic limits related to temperature and moisture extremes. Moreover, we find evidence of genetic clines and phenotypic plasticity at environmental boundaries, which we use to create geographic predictions of trait variation and maximum values due to climatic constraints across the western US. Overall, our findings show the utility of double quantile regressions for connecting species distributions and climate gradients through trait-based mechanisms. We highlight how new approaches like ours that incorporate genetic variation in functional traits and their response to climate gradients will lead to a better understanding of plant distributions as well as identifying populations anticipated to be maladapted to future environments.

Plant genetic variation drives geographic differences in atmosphere-plant-ecosystem feedbacks.

The objective of this study was to understand how genetic variation in a riparian species, Populus angustifolia, affects mass and energy exchange between the land and atmosphere across ~1,700 km of latitude of the western United States. To examine the potential for large-scale land-atmosphere feedbacks in hydrologic processes driven by geographic differences in plant population traits, we use a physical hydrology model, paired field, and greenhouse observations of plant traits, and stable isotope compositions of soil, stem, and leaf water of P. angustifolia populations. Populations show patterns of local adaptation in traits related to landscape hydrologic functioning-a 47% difference in stomatal density in greenhouse conditions and a 74% difference in stomatal ratio in the field. Trait and stable isotope differences reveal that populations use water differently which is related to historical landscape hydrologic functioning (evapotranspiration and streamflow). Overall, results suggest that populations from landscapes with different hydrologic histories will differ in their ability to maintain favorable water balance with changing atmospheric demands for water, with ecosystem consequences.

Climate-driven reduction of genetic variation in plant phenology alters soil communities and nutrient pools.

We examined the hypothesis that climate-driven evolution of plant traits will influence associated soil microbiomes and ecosystem function across the landscape. Using a foundation tree species, Populus angustifolia, observational and common garden approaches, and a base population genetic collection that spans 17 river systems in the western United States, from AZ to MT, we show that (a) as mean annual temperature (MAT) increases, genetic and phenotypic variation for bud break phenology decline; (b) soil microbiomes, soil nitrogen (N), and soil carbon (C) vary in response to MAT and conditioning by trees; and (c) with losses of genetic variation due to warming, population-level regulation of community and ecosystem functions strengthen. These results demonstrate a relationship between the potential evolutionary response of populations and subsequent shifts in ecosystem function along a large temperature gradient.