Exogenous and endogenous factors affecting stock market transactions: A Hawkes process analysis of the Tokyo Stock Exchange during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Transactions in financial markets are not evenly spaced but can be concentrated within a short period of time. In this study, we investigated the factors that determine the transaction frequency in financial markets. Specifically, we employed the Hawkes process model to identify exogenous and endogenous forces governing transactions of individual stocks in the Tokyo Stock Exchange during the COVID-19 pandemic. To enhance the accuracy of our analysis, we introduced a novel EM algorithm for the estimation of exogenous and endogenous factors that specifically addresses the interdependence of the values of these factors over time. We detected a substantial change in the transaction frequency in response to policy change announcements. Moreover, there is significant heterogeneity in the transaction frequency among individual stocks. We also found a tendency where stocks with high market capitalization tend to significantly respond to external news, while their excitation relationship between transactions is weak. This suggests the capability of quantifying the market state from the viewpoint of the exogenous and endogenous factors generating transactions for various stocks.

A surge in respiratory syncytial virus infection-related hospitalizations associated with the COVID-19 pandemic: An observational study at pediatric emergency referral hospitals in Tokushima Prefecture.

The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) resulted in implementation of social distancing and other public health measures to control the spread of infection and improve prevention, resulting in a decrease in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and pediatric respiratory tract infection rates. However, there was a rapid and large re-emergence of RSV infection in Japan. Notably, we were faced with a difficult situation wherein there was a shortage of hospital beds. This study aimed to examine the epidemiological patterns of RSV-related hospitalizations among children before and after the COVID-19 pandemic onset at two pediatric emergency referral hospitals covering the entire Tokushima Prefecture. Data were extracted from electronic medical records of children hospitalized with RSV infection between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2021. All patients meeting the eligibility criteria were included in this study. The rates of study outcomes were documented annually during 2018-2021 and compared between the 2018-2020 and 2021 periods. In 2020, there was no RSV infection outbreak. Hospitalizations at the peak week in 2021 were 2.2- and 2.8-fold higher than those in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Hospitalizations in 2021 were concentrated within a short period. In addition, there was a significant increase in hospitalizations among children aged 3-5 months and those older than 24 months. The high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) use rate nearly doubled in 2021. A new pandemic in the future may cause an outbreak of RSV infection that can result in an intensive increase in the number of hospitalizations of pediatric patients requiring respiratory support, especially in infants aged <6 months. There is an urgent need to improve the preparedness of medical systems, particularly in terms of the number of inpatient beds and the immediate availability of HFNC.

Development of two fully automated quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe pretreatment methods for the extraction of psychotropic drugs from whole blood samples.

Quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe extraction strategies are becoming increasingly adopted in various analytical fields to determine drugs in biological specimens. In the present study, we developed two fully automated quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe extraction methods based on acetonitrile salting-out assisted liquid-liquid extraction (method 1) and acetonitrile salting-out assisted liquid-liquid extraction followed by dispersive solid-phase extraction (method 2) using a commercially available automated liquid-liquid extraction system. We applied these methods to the extraction of 14 psychotropic drugs (11 benzodiazepines and carbamazepine, quetiapine, and zolpidem) from whole blood samples. Both methods prior to liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry analysis exhibited high linearity of calibration curves (correlation coefficients, > 0.9997), ppt level detection sensitivities, and satisfactory precisions (< 8.6% relative standard deviation), accuracies (within ± 16% relative error), and matrix effects (81-111%). Method 1 provided higher recovery rates (80-91%) than method 2 (72-86%), whereas method 2 provided higher detection sensitivities (limits of detection, 0.003-0.094 ng/mL) than method 1 (0.025-0.47 ng/mL) owing to the effectiveness of its dispersive solid-phase extraction cleanup step. These fully automated extraction methods realize reliable, labor-saving, user-friendly, and hygienic extraction of target analytes from whole blood samples.

Easily Operable Quantification Method of 21 Plant-Derived Alkaloids in Human Serum by Automatic Sample Preparation and Liquid Chromatography-Tandem Mass Spectrometry.

In this study, we developed an easily operable quantification method for 21 plant-derived alkaloids in human serum by automatic sample preparation and liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. We designed to perform parallel sample preparation by a developed apparatus, which increased sample throughput. We conducted an automatic sample preparation through de-proteinization with 0.1% formic acid in methanol and achieved recovery rates of 89-107% (2.0-14% RSD) for all targeted analytes, demonstrating its high repeatability. The method validation results were satisfactory as follows: the linearity (r 2) of each calibration curve ranged from 0.978 to 1.000; the inter- and intra-day accuracies were 89.0-125% and 82.1-110%, respectively; the inter- and intra-day precisions were below 13% and 10%, respectively. Additionally, the lower limits of detection and quantification were 0.0044-0.047 and 0.013-0.14 ng/mL, respectively. Finally, the developed method was applied to pseudo-protoveratrine A poisoning serum and pseudo-colchicine poisoning serum, which were prepared by diluting acute-poisoning mice serum with human serum. Our method successfully quantitated protoveratrine A (0.15-0.25 ng/mL) and colchicine (4.8-6.0 ng/mL). Thus, our method is essential for prompt clinical treatment and critical care on patient in acute intoxication cases caused by plant-derived alkaloids. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10337-022-04212-5.

Visualizing Social and Behavior Change due to the Outbreak of COVID-19 Using Mobile Phone Location Data.

We visualize the rates of stay-home for residents by region using the difference between day-time and night-time populations to detect residential areas, and then observing the numbers of people leaving residential areas. There are issues with measuring stay-home rates by observing numbers of people visiting downtown areas, such as central urban shopping centers and major train stations. The first is that we cannot eliminate the possibility that people will avoid areas being observed and go to other areas. The second is that for people visiting downtown areas, we cannot know where they reside. These issues can be resolved if we quantify the degree of stay-home using the number of people leaving residential areas. There are significant differences in stay-home levels by region throughout Japan. By this visualization, residents of each region can see whether their level of stay-home is adequate or not, and this can provide incentive toward compliance suited to the residents of the region.

Japan's voluntary lockdown: further evidence based on age-specific mobile location data.

Changes in people's behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic can be regarded as the result of two types of effects: the "intervention effect" (changes resulting from government orders for people to change their behavior) and the "information effect" (voluntary changes in people's behavior based on information about the pandemic). Using age-specific mobile location data, we examine how the intervention and information effects differ across age groups. Our main findings are as follows. First, the age profile of the intervention effect shows that the degree to which people refrained from going out was smaller for older age groups, who are at a higher risk of serious illness and death, than for younger age groups. Second, the age profile of the information effect shows that the degree to which people stayed at home tended to increase with age for weekends and holidays. Thus, while Acemoglu et al. (2020) proposed targeted lockdowns requiring stricter lockdown policies for the oldest group in order to protect those at a high risk of serious illness and death, our findings suggest that Japan's government intervention had a very different effect in that it primarily reduced outings by the young, and what led to the quarantining of older groups at higher risk instead was people's voluntary response to information about the pandemic. Third, the information effect has been on a downward trend since the summer of 2020. It is relatively more pronounced among the young, so that the age profile of the information effect remains upward sloping.

Japan's voluntary lockdown.

Japan's government has taken a number of measures, including declaring a state of emergency, to combat the spread COVID-19. We examine the mechanisms through which the government's policies have led to changes in people's behavior. Using smartphone location data, we construct a daily prefecture-level stay-at-home measure to identify the following two effects: (1) the effect that citizens refrained from going out in line with the government's request, and (2) the effect that government announcements reinforced awareness with regard to the seriousness of the pandemic and people voluntarily refrained from going out. Our main findings are as follows. First, the declaration of the state of emergency reduced the number of people leaving their homes by 8.5% through the first channel, which is of the same order of magnitude as the estimates obtained for lockdowns in the United States. Second, a 1% increase in new infections in a prefecture reduces people's outings in that prefecture by 0.027%. Third, the government's requests are responsible for about one quarter of the decrease in outings in Tokyo, while the remaining three quarters are the result of citizens obtaining new information through government announcements and the daily release of the number of infections. The findings suggest that what mattered for containing the spread of COVID-19 was not strong, legally binding measures but the provision of appropriate information that encouraged people to change their behavior.

Interannual variability of leaf area index of an evergreen conifer stand was affected by carry-over effects from recent climate conditions.

Despite the relevance of leaf area index (LAI) to forest productivity, few studies have focused on the interannual variability of LAI of an evergreen stand and its relationship with stand growth and meteorological factors. We estimated the change in LAI of an evergreen conifer (Chamaecyparis obtusa) stand over 19 years from a dataset using allometric methods. The LAI varied between 7.1 and 8.8 m2 m-2, with a 95% confidence interval of <1.1 m2 m-2 over the 19 years. This LAI range was maintained such that the gradual increase in leaf area (LA) of the largest trees counterbalanced the gradual loss in LA of the smallest trees. Meanwhile, more trees showed a temporary decrease in LA in years with low summer precipitation. The LAI and current-year mean temperature for July and August (TJA) were weakly correlated, whereas the correlation coefficient increased (r = 0.93) when LAI was correlated with the moving average TJA over the previous 6 years, which agreed with the estimated turnover time of canopy foliage. The annual stem biomass growth rate was significantly positively correlated with summer precipitation, but not with LAI. These results will be useful for refining models in studies on forest growth and global climate change.

Increasing canopy photosynthesis in rice can be achieved without a large increase in water use-A model based on free-air CO2 enrichment.

Achieving higher canopy photosynthesis rates is one of the keys to increasing future crop production; however, this typically requires additional water inputs because of increased water loss through the stomata. Lowland rice canopies presently consume a large amount of water, and any further increase in water usage may significantly impact local water resources. This situation is further complicated by changing the environmental conditions such as rising atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2 ]). Here, we modeled and compared evapotranspiration of fully developed rice canopies of a high-yielding rice cultivar (Oryza sativa L. cv. Takanari) with a common cultivar (cv. Koshihikari) under ambient and elevated [CO2 ] (A-CO2 and E-CO2 , respectively) via leaf ecophysiological parameters derived from a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment. Takanari had 4%-5% higher evapotranspiration than Koshihikari under both A-CO2 and E-CO2 , and E-CO2 decreased evapotranspiration of both varieties by 4%-6%. Therefore, if Takanari was cultivated under future [CO2 ] conditions, the cost for water could be maintained at the same level as for cultivating Koshihikari at current [CO2 ] with an increase in canopy photosynthesis by 36%. Sensitivity analyses determined that stomatal conductance was a significant physiological factor responsible for the greater canopy photosynthesis in Takanari over Koshihikari. Takanari had 30%-40% higher stomatal conductance than Koshihikari; however, the presence of high aerodynamic resistance in the natural field and lower canopy temperature of Takanari than Koshihikari resulted in the small difference in evapotranspiration. Despite the small difference in evapotranspiration between varieties, the model simulations showed that Takanari clearly decreased canopy and air temperatures within the planetary boundary layer compared to Koshihikari. Our results indicate that lowland rice varieties characterized by high-stomatal conductance can play a key role in enhancing productivity and moderating heat-induced damage to grain quality in the coming decades, without significantly increasing crop water use.

The gradual evolution of buyer-seller networks and their role in aggregate fluctuations.

Buyer-seller relationships among firms can be regarded as a longitudinal network in which the connectivity pattern evolves as each firm receives productivity shocks. Based on a data set describing the evolution of buyer-seller links among 55,608 firms over a decade and structural equation modeling, we find some evidence that interfirm networks evolve reflecting a firm's local decisions to mitigate adverse effects from neighbor firms through interfirm linkage, while enjoying positive effects from them. As a result, link renewal tends to have a positive impact on the growth rates of firms. We also investigate the role of networks in aggregate fluctuations.

Recurrent Staphylococcus aureus abscess and fatal pneumococcal septicemia due to IRAK-4 deficiency.

We describe the case of an infant with recurrent episodes of staphylococcal skin abscess and subsequent lethal pneumococcal meningitis/septicemia due to interleukin-1 receptor-associated kinase 4 (IRAK-4) deficiency. In this case, systemic signs of inflammatory response were poor and delayed. Among all other reported cases of IRAK-4 deficiency, none involved severe viral or fungal disease, and the range of infecting bacteria was narrow.

Late-maturing cooking rice Sensyuraku has excellent properties, equivalent to sake rice, for high-quality sake brewing.

Low protein content and sufficient grain rigidity are desired properties for the rice used in high-quality sake brewing such as Daiginjo-shu (polishing ratio of the rice, less than 50%). Two kinds of rice, sake rice (SR) and cooking rice (CR), have been used for sake brewing. Compared with those of SR, analyses of CR for high-quality sake brewing using highly polished rice have been limited. Here we described the original screening of late-maturing CR Sensyuraku (SEN) as rice with low protein content and characterization of its properties for high-quality sake brewing. The protein content of SEN was lower than those of SR Gohyakumangoku (GOM) and CR Yukinosei (YUK), and its grain rigidity was higher than that of GOM. The excellent properties of SEN with respect to both water-adsorption and enzyme digestibility were confirmed using a Rapid Visco Analyzer (RVA). Further, we confirmed a clear taste of sake produced from SEN by sensory evaluation. Thus, SEN has excellent properties, equivalent to those of SR, for high-quality sake brewing.

The structure and evolution of buyer-supplier networks.

In this paper, we investigate the structure and evolution of customer-supplier networks in Japan using a unique dataset that contains information on customer and supplier linkages for more than 500,000 incorporated non-financial firms for the five years from 2008 to 2012. We find, first, that the number of customer links is unequal across firms; the customer link distribution has a power-law tail with an exponent of unity (i.e., it follows Zipf's law). We interpret this as implying that competition among firms to acquire new customers yields winners with a large number of customers, as well as losers with fewer customers. We also show that the shortest path length for any pair of firms is, on average, 4.3 links. Second, we find that link switching is relatively rare. Our estimates indicate that the survival rate per year for customer links is 92 percent and for supplier links 93 percent. Third and finally, we find that firm growth rates tend to be more highly correlated the closer two firms are to each other in a customer-supplier network (i.e., the smaller is the shortest path length for the two firms). This suggests that a non-negligible portion of fluctuations in firm growth stems from the propagation of microeconomic shocks - shocks affecting only a particular firm - through customer-supplier chains.

TogoTable: cross-database annotation system using the Resource Description Framework (RDF) data model.

TogoTable (http://togotable.dbcls.jp/) is a web tool that adds user-specified annotations to a table that a user uploads. Annotations are drawn from several biological databases that use the Resource Description Framework (RDF) data model. TogoTable uses database identifiers (IDs) in the table as a query key for searching. RDF data, which form a network called Linked Open Data (LOD), can be searched from SPARQL endpoints using a SPARQL query language. Because TogoTable uses RDF, it can integrate annotations from not only the reference database to which the IDs originally belong, but also externally linked databases via the LOD network. For example, annotations in the Protein Data Bank can be retrieved using GeneID through links provided by the UniProt RDF. Because RDF has been standardized by the World Wide Web Consortium, any database with annotations based on the RDF data model can be easily incorporated into this tool. We believe that TogoTable is a valuable Web tool, particularly for experimental biologists who need to process huge amounts of data such as high-throughput experimental output.

Polishing properties of sake rice Koshitanrei for high-quality sake brewing.

The Japanese high-quality sake Daiginjo-shu is made from highly polished rice (polishing ratio, less than 50%). Here we showed that the sake rice Koshitanrei (KOS) has an excellent polishing property. Rice grains of KOS had the same lined white-core region as the sake rice Yamadanishiki (YAM). The grain rigidity/hardness of KOS was higher than that of the sake rice Gohyakumangoku (GOM). The loss ratio of KOS after high polishing by an industrial polishing machine was lower than that of GOM. Further, a clear taste of sake produced from KOS was confirmed by sensory evaluation.

Why are product prices in online markets not converging?

Why are product prices in online markets dispersed in spite of very small search costs? To address this question, we construct a unique dataset from a Japanese price comparison site, which records price quotes offered by e-retailers as well as customers' clicks on products, which occur when they proceed to purchase the product. The novelty of our approach is that we seek to extract useful information on the source of price dispersion from the shape of price distributions rather than focusing merely on the standard deviation or the coefficient of variation of prices, as previous studies have done. We find that the distribution of prices retailers quote for a particular product at a particular point in time (divided by the lowest price) follows an exponential distribution, showing the presence of substantial price dispersion. For example, 20 percent of all retailers quote prices that are more than 50 percent higher than the lowest price. Next, comparing the probability that customers click on a retailer with a particular rank and the probability that retailers post prices at a particular rank, we show that both decline exponentially with price rank and that the exponents associated with the probabilities are quite close. This suggests that the reason why some retailers set prices at a level substantially higher than the lowest price is that they know that some customers will choose them even at that high price. Based on these findings, we hypothesize that price dispersion in online markets stems from heterogeneity in customers' preferences over retailers; that is, customers choose a set of candidate retailers based on their preferences, which are heterogeneous across customers, and then pick a particular retailer among the candidates based on the price ranking.

High quality topic extraction from business news explains abnormal financial market volatility.

Understanding the mutual relationships between information flows and social activity in society today is one of the cornerstones of the social sciences. In financial economics, the key issue in this regard is understanding and quantifying how news of all possible types (geopolitical, environmental, social, financial, economic, etc.) affects trading and the pricing of firms in organized stock markets. In this article, we seek to address this issue by performing an analysis of more than 24 million news records provided by Thompson Reuters and of their relationship with trading activity for 206 major stocks in the S&P US stock index. We show that the whole landscape of news that affects stock price movements can be automatically summarized via simple regularized regressions between trading activity and news information pieces decomposed, with the help of simple topic modeling techniques, into their "thematic" features. Using these methods, we are able to estimate and quantify the impacts of news on trading. We introduce network-based visualization techniques to represent the whole landscape of news information associated with a basket of stocks. The examination of the words that are representative of the topic distributions confirms that our method is able to extract the significant pieces of information influencing the stock market. Our results show that one of the most puzzling stylized facts in financial economies, namely that at certain times trading volumes appear to be "abnormally large," can be partially explained by the flow of news. In this sense, our results prove that there is no "excess trading," when restricting to times when news is genuinely novel and provides relevant financial information.

Minimal residual disease-based augmented therapy in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a report from the Japanese Childhood Cancer and Leukemia Study Group.

BACKGROUND: The majority of minimal residual disease (MRD)-positive patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) have poor outcomes. The ALL2000 study was performed to evaluate the efficacy of augmented chemotherapy based on MRD-restratification in childhood ALL. PROCEDURE: Between 2000 and 2004, 305 eligible patients with precursor B or T-cell ALL were enrolled in the ALL2000 study. The ALL941-based therapy protocol utilized PCR MRD assays using Immunoglobulin and T-cell receptor gene rearrangements. They were initially stratified into three risk-groups according to leukocyte count and age, and MRD levels were measured at weeks 5 (TP1) and 12 (TP2) for a second stratification. From week 14, patients with MRD levels ≥ 10(-3) received an increase in therapy (one risk group higher), while the remainder continued to receive the initial risk-adapted therapy. RESULTS: The overall 5-year event-free survival (EFS) rate for ALL2000 was 79.7 ± 2.4%. MRD stratification was feasible for 234 of 301 patients (77%) who achieved complete remission. The EFS rate of the MRD stratifiable (MRD) group was 82.5 ± 2.6%, considerably superior to the 74.7 ± 5.7% of MRD non-stratifiable (Non-MRD) group (P = 0.084) and the 74.4 ± 2.1% for ALL 941 (P = 0.012). MRD-positive patients at TP2 showed inferior outcomes as compared with MRD-negative cases, but the difference did not reach a statistically significant level in any risk groups or immunophenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that augmented therapy for MRD-positive patients at TP2 contributed to better outcomes of the ALL2000 study.