Does gambling expenditure have any effect on crime?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Australians spend more per capita on gambling than any other country in the world. Electronic gaming machines (EGM) expenditure accounts for almost 90% of this expenditure. No study to date has conducted a rigorous longitudinal analysis of the relationship between gambling expenditure and crime. This study aimed to estimate the short- and long-run relationship between gambling expenditure and crime. DESIGN: Longitudinal analysis using panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling. SETTING AND CASES: Recorded property and violent crimes committed in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, between 28 December 2015 and 5 January 2020. MEASUREMENTS: Monthly gross EGM expenditure profit, broken down by Local Government Area (LGA). Monthly recorded rates of assault, break enter and steal (dwelling), break enter and steal (non-dwelling), break enter and steal (total), motor vehicle theft, stealing from a motor vehicle, stealing from a retail store, stealing from the person, stealing (total) and fraud. FINDINGS: Each 10% increase in gambling expenditure in NSW is associated with annual: 7.4% increase in assaults, 10.5% increase in break and enter (dwelling) offences; 10.3% increase in break and enter (non-dwelling) offences; 11% increase in motor vehicle theft offences; 8.2% increase in stealing from motor vehicle offences; and 7.4% increase in fraud offences. CONCLUSION: Electronic gaming expenditure appears to be positively associated with property and violent crime in New South Wales, Australia.

Who would try (or use more) cannabis if it were legal?

INTRODUCTION: This study sought to determine: (i) whether decriminalisation of cannabis use would increase the proportion who would try the drug; and (ii) the proportion who would use more cannabis; and (iii) explore their characteristics. METHODS: Australian National Drug Strategy Household surveys were used to address (i)-(iii). Significant independent predictors of (i) and (ii) were identified using logistic regression. RESULTS: An estimated 4.2% of the population aged 14 and over (n = 882 708) who have never tried cannabis before would try it, if use of the drug were made legal, while 2.6% of the population aged 14 and over (537 000) would use more cannabis if its use were made legal. Respondents were more likely to say they would try cannabis if they were male, younger or suffered from a mild, moderate and/or severe level of psychological stress. Respondents were more likely to say they would use more cannabis if they were male, younger, psychologically stressed and not currently frequent users of the drug. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Decriminalisation of cannabis use is likely to result in an increase in consumption of the drug among young people with mental health problems. If cannabis use is decriminalised, Australian State and Territory Governments should make provision for a possible increase in demand for drug treatment and for public education on the risks associated with frequent/prolonged cannabis use.

The impact of the COVID-19, social distancing, and movement restrictions on crime in NSW, Australia.

The spread of COVID-19 has prompted Governments around the world to impose draconian restrictions on business activity, public transport, and public freedom of movement. The effect of these restrictions appears to vary from country to country and, in some cases, from one area to another within a country. This paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 restrictions imposed in New South Wales (NSW) by the State Government. We examine week-to-week changes in 13 categories of crime (and four aggregated categories) from 2 January 2017 to 28 June 2020. Rather than using the pre-intervention data to make a forecast and then comparing that with what is actually observed, we use a Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) approach to model the entire time series. Our results are broadly in accord with those of other studies, but we find no effect of the lockdown (upward or downward) on domestic assault. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40163-021-00160-x.

Sertraline hydrochloride for reducing impulsive behaviour in male, repeat-violent offenders (ReINVEST): protocol for a phase IV, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomised clinical trial.

INTRODUCTION: Considerable evidence supports an association between poor impulse control (impulsivity) and violent crime. Furthermore, impulsivity and aggression has been associated with reduced levels of serotonergic activity in the brain. Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) are a class of anti-depressants that aim to regulate brain serotonin concentrations. Several small studies in psychiatric populations have administered SSRIs to impulsive--aggressive individuals, resulting in reduced impulsivity, anger, aggression and depression. However, no clinical trial has been undertaken in a criminal justice population. This protocol describes the design and implementation of the first systematic study of the potential benefits of SSRIs in impulsive---violent offenders who are at high risk of reoffending. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A randomised, double-blinded, multicentre trial to test the clinical efficacy of an SSRI, sertraline hydrochloride, compared with placebo on recidivism and behavioural measures (including impulsivity, anger, aggression, depression and self-reported offending) over 12 months. 460 participants with histories of violence and screening positive for impulsivity are recruited at several local courts and correctional service offices in New South Wales, Australia. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. Possible implications of the effectiveness of this pharmacological intervention include economic benefits of reducing prison costs and societal benefits of improving safety. This study has received ethical approval from the University of New South Wales, Aboriginal Health & Medical Research Council, Corrective Services NSW and the NSW Justice Health and Forensic Mental Health Network. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ACTRN12613000442707.

The Australian ready-to-drink beverages tax missed its target age group.

BACKGROUND: During 2008 and 2009, the Australian Government increased the tax on ready-to-drink alcoholic beverages by 70% to discourage drinking among adolescents. METHODS: To evaluate the tax, we use the difference-in-difference and comparative interrupted time series estimators, where age is used to define the control and treatment groups. This methodology is applied to the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. RESULTS: We show that the tax did not affect the alcohol consumption of those aged under 25 (the tax targeted age group) but substantially reduced drinking among those aged 25-69, reducing their average daily consumption of standard drinks by 8.9% from 2010 to 2018. CONCLUSION: The age group under 25 did not respond to the tax likely because of product substitution. Alcohol price policy may need to acknowledge complex substitute/complement relationships between beverages and consider a floor price on alcohol or a uniform volumetric tax per standard drink.