Damage to tropical forests caused by cyclones is driven by wind speed but mediated by topographical exposure and tree characteristics.

Each year, an average of 45 tropical cyclones affect coastal areas and potentially impact forests. The proportion of the most intense cyclones has increased over the past four decades and is predicted to continue to do so. Yet, it remains uncertain how topographical exposure and tree characteristics can mediate the damage caused by increasing wind speed. Here, we compiled empirical data on the damage caused by 11 cyclones occurring over the past 40 years, from 74 forest plots representing tropical regions worldwide, encompassing field data for 22,176 trees and 815 species. We reconstructed the wind structure of those tropical cyclones to estimate the maximum sustained wind speed (MSW) and wind direction at the studied plots. Then, we used a causal inference framework combined with Bayesian generalised linear mixed models to understand and quantify the causal effects of MSW, topographical exposure to wind (EXP), tree size (DBH) and species wood density (ρ) on the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, and on the probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level. The probability of snapping or uprooting at the tree level and, hence, the proportion of damaged trees at the community level, increased with increasing MSW, and with increasing EXP accentuating the damaging effects of cyclones, in particular at higher wind speeds. Higher ρ decreased the probability of snapping and to a lesser extent of uprooting. Larger trees tended to have lower probabilities of snapping but increased probabilities of uprooting. Importantly, the effect of ρ decreasing the probabilities of snapping was more marked for smaller than larger trees and was further accentuated at higher MSW. Our work emphasises how local topography, tree size and species wood density together mediate cyclone damage to tropical forests, facilitating better predictions of the impacts of such disturbances in an increasingly windier world.

Rarity patterns of woody plant species are associated with life form and diversification rates in Pacific islands forests.

PREMISE: Rarity is a complex and central concept in ecology and conservation biology. Yet, it is still poorly understood why some species are rare and others common. Here, we aimed to understand the drivers of species rarity patterns in woody plant communities. METHODS: We analyzed the local abundance and landscape frequency of 121 woody plant species across 238 plots on American Samoa and Hawaiian islands. We first assessed whether taxonomy, life form (shrub, small tree, large tree), and dispersal syndrome (dispersed by animals or by other means) are associated with the rarity of species. We then analyzed phylogenetic patterns in plant rarity and tested whether rarity patterns are associated with species evolutionary distinctiveness and the number of species within genera and families. RESULTS: Large trees were less abundant but more frequent than shrub species. Animal-dispersed species tended to be less abundant than species dispersed by other means, while species frequency was not associated with dispersal syndromes. Relative frequency in Hawai'i exhibited a more robust phylogenetic signal than did abundance. Both evolutionary distinctiveness and taxa species richness were significantly associated with the frequency of shrub species in Hawai'i. CONCLUSIONS: Life form appears consistently associated with the rarity of species. High diversification rate is probably a key factor explaining landscape-scale rarity of native species on isolated archipelagos like Hawai'i. At the landscape scale, rarity appears to be inversely associated with evolutionary distinctiveness, but at the local scale, species abundance may be not associated with evolutionary distinctiveness.

Coordinated intensification to reconcile the 'zero hunger' and 'life on land' Sustainable Development Goals.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encourage nations to substantially increase food production to achieve zero hunger (SDG 2) while preserving life on land (SDG 15). A key question is how to reconcile these potentially competing goals spatially. We use integer linear programming to develop an 'integrated land use planning framework' that identifies the optimal allocation of 17 crops under different hypothetical conservation targets while meeting agricultural demands by 2030. Intensifying existing cropland to maximum yield before allocating new cropland would reduce land requirement by 43% versus cropland expansion without intensification. Even with yield gap closure, tropical and sub-tropical crops still require expansion, primarily allocated to Venezuela, eastern Brazil, Congo Basin, Myanmar and Indonesia. Enforcement of protected areas, via avoiding conversion in 75% of Key Biodiversity Areas and 65% of intact areas, is vital to attain biodiversity targets but bears large opportunity costs, with agricultural rents dropping from $4.1 to $2.8 trillion. Although nationally constrained forest conservation efforts would earn 9% less agricultural rents compared to globally coordinated conservation solutions, they were also able to reduce intact habitat and forest loss (43% and 35% reduction). Our results demonstrate that careful choice of the allocation of future cropland expansion, could dramatically reduce-but not eliminate-the tradeoffs between the SDGs for food production and land biodiversity conservation.

Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the Philippines.

Southeast Asian forests are dominated by the tree family Dipterocarpaceae, whose abundance and diversity are key to maintaining the structure and function of tropical forests. Like most biodiversity, dipterocarps are threatened by deforestation and climate change, so it is crucial to understand the potential impacts of these threats on current and future dipterocarp distributions. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) for 19 species of dipterocarps in the Philippines, which were projected onto current and two 2070 representative concentration pathway (RCP) climate scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Current land cover was incorporated as a post-hoc correction to restrict projections onto intact habitats. Land cover correction alone reduced current species distributions by a median 67%, and within protected areas by 37%. After land cover correction, climate change reduced distributions by a median 16% (RCP 4.5) and 27% (RCP 8.5) at the national level, with similar losses in protected areas. There was a detectable upward elevation shift of species distributions, consisting of suitable habitat losses below 300 m and gains above 600 m. Species-rich stable areas of continued habitat suitability (i.e., climate macrorefugia) fell largely outside current delineations of protected areas, indicating a need to improve protected area planning. This study highlights how SDMs can provide projections that can inform protected area planning in the tropics.

Availability of orchid mycorrhizal fungi on roadside trees in a tropical urban landscape.

Urban expansion threatens biodiversity worldwide, therefore urban spaces need to be amenable to biodiversity conservation. On trees in urban environments, natural colonisation and successful translocation of epiphytic orchids are necessary to enhance urban biodiversity, and depend on the availability of compatible orchid mycorrhizal fungi (OMF). However, the extent of OMF presence and distribution, as well as niche requirements for the OMF, remain poorly studied. To identify and quantify OMF on urban trees as well as assess their suitability for native epiphytic orchids, we conducted high-throughput sequencing on tree bark and orchid root samples. OMF were detected at 60% of the study sites on 16% of 270 bark samples (from stem, fork, and branch microsites within each tree). OMF presence and richness on bark samples were related to multiple biophysical factors; in general, humus presence and precipitation levels were positively predictive of OMF presence and richness. We found Ceratobasidiaceae- and Serendipitaceae-associated OMF both on bark and within roots. Orchid species also showed differing mycorrhizal specificity. Sites associated with fungal genera Ceratobasidium, Rhizoctonia, and Serendipita were considered suitable habitats for seven orchid species. The results suggest that urban trees support OMF and are therefore suitable for native orchid species; however, OMF availability are largely constrained by biophysical factors. To maximise the likelihood of translocation success and consequent natural establishment, we propose that (micro)sites are screened for compatible OMF prior to any intervention.

A general framework for propagule dispersal in mangroves.

Dispersal allows species to shift their distributions in response to changing climate conditions. As a result, dispersal is considered a key process contributing to a species' long-term persistence. For many passive dispersers, fluid dynamics of wind and water fuel these movements and different species have developed remarkable adaptations for utilizing this energy to reach and colonize suitable habitats. The seafaring propagules (fruits and seeds) of mangroves represent an excellent example of such passive dispersal. Mangroves are halophytic woody plants that grow in the intertidal zones along tropical and subtropical shorelines and produce hydrochorous propagules with high dispersal potential. This results in exceptionally large coastal ranges across vast expanses of ocean and allows species to shift geographically and track the conditions to which they are adapted. This is particularly relevant given the challenges presented by rapid sea-level rise, higher frequency and intensity of storms, and changes in regional precipitation and temperature regimes. However, despite its importance, the underlying drivers of mangrove dispersal have typically been studied in isolation, and a conceptual synthesis of mangrove oceanic dispersal across spatial scales is lacking. Here, we review current knowledge on mangrove propagule dispersal across the various stages of the dispersal process. Using a general framework, we outline the mechanisms and ecological processes that are known to modulate the spatial patterns of mangrove dispersal. We show that important dispersal factors remain understudied and that adequate empirical data on the determinants of dispersal are missing for most mangrove species. This review particularly aims to provide a baseline for developing future research agendas and field campaigns, filling current knowledge gaps and increasing our understanding of the processes that shape global mangrove distributions.

Germination niches and seed persistence of tropical epiphytic orchids in an urban landscape.

Urbanisation has contributed to significant biodiversity loss, yet, urban areas can facilitate biodiversity conservation. For instance, there is evidence of urban trees supporting natural establishments of orchids, the most species-rich plant family on Earth. However, the germination niches-which include both suitable biophysical conditions and orchid mycorrhizal fungus/fungi (OMF)-are not sufficiently known for most species, especially tropical epiphytic orchids. The fate of their dispersed seeds is poorly understood as well. We conducted fungal baiting and seed sowing experiments, next-generation sequencing, generalised linear models, and seed viability tests to detect and identify potential OMF, investigate biophysical factors that influenced OMF availability and orchid germination, and assess seed longevity. Ceratobasidiaceae- and Serendipitaceae-associated OMF were successfully detected in three of four orchid species. In general, orchid species and humus presence had significant effects on OMF availability. Orchid species and temperature were predictive of germination. Post-experiment viability tests revealed that one orchid species, Grammatophyllum speciosum Blume, may produce long-lived seeds. The results suggest that urban trees can support OMF and orchid germination, but both processes are limited by biophysical factors. This study also indicates the possibility of seed persistence among epiphytic species. As orchid germination niches are complex and tend to be unique to individual species, we do not encourage generalisations. In contrast, species-specific information can help formulate useful recommendations towards conservation.

Dramatic cropland expansion in Myanmar following political reforms threatens biodiversity.

Effective conservation planning needs to consider the threats of cropland expansion to biodiversity. We used Myanmar as a case study to devise a modeling framework to identify which Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) are most vulnerable to cropland expansion in a context of increasingly resolved armed conflict. We studied 13 major crops with the potential to expand into KBAs. We used mixed-effects models and an agricultural versus forest rent framework to model current land use and conversion of forests to cropland for each crop. We found that the current cropland distribution is explained by higher agricultural value, lower transportation costs and lower elevation. We also found that protected areas and socio-political instability are effective in slowing down deforestation with conflicts in Myanmar damaging farmland and displacing farmers elsewhere. Under plausible economic development and socio-political stability scenarios, the models forecast 48.5% of land to be converted. We identified export crops such as maize, and pigeon pea as key deforestation drivers. This cropland expansion would pose a major threat to Myanmar's freshwater KBAs. We highlight the importance of considering rapid land-use transitions in the tropics to devise robust conservation plans.

Political transition and emergent forest-conservation issues in Myanmar.

Political and economic transitions have had substantial impacts on forest conservation. Where transitions are underway or anticipated, historical precedent and methods for systematically assessing future trends should be used to anticipate likely threats to forest conservation and design appropriate and prescient policy measures to counteract them. Myanmar is transitioning from an authoritarian, centralized state with a highly regulated economy to a more decentralized and economically liberal democracy and is working to end a long-running civil war. With these transitions in mind, we used a horizon-scanning approach to assess the 40 emerging issues most affecting Myanmar's forests, including internal conflict, land-tenure insecurity, large-scale agricultural development, demise of state timber enterprises, shortfalls in government revenue and capacity, and opening of new deforestation frontiers with new roads, mines, and hydroelectric dams. Averting these threats will require, for example, overhauling governance models, building capacity, improving infrastructure- and energy-project planning, and reforming land-tenure and environmental-protection laws. Although challenges to conservation in Myanmar are daunting, the political transition offers an opportunity for conservationists and researchers to help shape a future that enhances Myanmar's social, economic, and environmental potential while learning and applying lessons from other countries. Our approach and results are relevant to other countries undergoing similar transitions.

Untangling the proximate causes and underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Myanmar.

Political transitions often trigger substantial environmental changes. In particular, deforestation can result from the complex interplay among the components of a system-actors, institutions, and existing policies-adapting to new opportunities. A dynamic conceptual map of system components is particularly useful for systems in which multiple actors, each with different worldviews and motivations, may be simultaneously trying to alter different facets of the system, unaware of the impacts on other components. In Myanmar, a global biodiversity hotspot with the largest forest area in mainland Southeast Asia, ongoing political and economic reforms are likely to change the dynamics of deforestation drivers. A fundamental conceptual map of these dynamics is therefore a prerequisite for interventions to reduce deforestation. We used a system-dynamics approach and causal-network analysis to determine the proximate causes and underlying drivers of forest loss and degradation in Myanmar from 1995 to 2016 and to articulate the linkages among them. Proximate causes included infrastructure development, timber extraction, and agricultural expansion. These were stimulated primarily by formal agricultural, logging, mining, and hydropower concessions and economic investment and social issues relating to civil war and land tenure. Reform of land laws, the link between natural resource extraction and civil war, and the allocation of agricultural concessions will influence the extent of future forest loss and degradation in Myanmar. The causal-network analysis identified priority areas for policy interventions, for example, creating a public registry of land-concession holders to deter corruption in concession allocation. We recommend application of this analytical approach to other countries, particularly those undergoing political transition, to inform policy interventions to reduce forest loss and degradation.

Global economic trade-offs between wild nature and tropical agriculture.

Global demands for agricultural and forestry products provide economic incentives for deforestation across the tropics. Much of this deforestation occurs with a lack of information on the spatial distribution of benefits and costs of deforestation. To inform global sustainable land-use policies, we combine geographic information systems (GIS) with a meta-analysis of ecosystem services (ES) studies to perform a spatially explicit analysis of the trade-offs between agricultural benefits, carbon emissions, and losses of multiple ecosystem services because of tropical deforestation from 2000 to 2012. Even though the value of ecosystem services presents large inherent uncertainties, we find a pattern supporting the argument that the externalities of destroying tropical forests are greater than the current direct economic benefits derived from agriculture in all cases bar one: when yield and rent potentials of high-value crops could be realized in the future. Our analysis identifies the Atlantic Forest, areas around the Gulf of Guinea, and Thailand as areas where agricultural conversion appears economically efficient, indicating a major impediment to the long-term financial sustainability of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) schemes in those countries. By contrast, Latin America, insular Southeast Asia, and Madagascar present areas with low agricultural rents (ARs) and high values in carbon stocks and ES, suggesting that they are economically viable conservation targets. Our study helps identify optimal areas for conservation and agriculture together with their associated uncertainties, which could enhance the efficiency and sustainability of pantropical land-use policies and help direct future research efforts.

Very small relict populations suggest high extinction debt of gingers in primary forest fragments of a tropical city.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Tropical plant communities in fragmented forests are likely to experience an extinction debt, i.e., the habitat cannot support as many species as are present due to reduced habitat size and connectivity. There are few estimates of the number of species that represent extinction debt, and the number of extinctions over time has rarely been recorded. We recorded population sizes to assess threats and extinctions in gingers (sensu Zingiberales) in fragmented rainforest in Singapore, ca. 200 yr after fragmentation began. METHODS: We surveyed extant diversity and population sizes of gingers and used the results to estimate species survival. We critically assessed historic specimens to estimate initial extinctions and extinctions realized in present habitats. KEY RESULTS: We recorded 23 species, including five species previously presumed nationally extinct and four species omitted from the national checklist. The revised extinction rate is much lower than previously reported (12 vs. 37%). Most gingers have very small populations or miniscule ranges, implying that extinction debt has not been paid off. CONCLUSIONS: Ginger diversity remains high, but the number of species at immediate risk of extinction outnumber recorded extinctions. Although tropical forest fragments remain arks of plant diversity for a long time, extinction debt may be prevalent in all plant groups in Singapore. Slow relaxation of extinction debt should be explicitly identified as a conservation challenge and opportunity. For conserving plant diversity in tropical fragments, relaxation must be reversed through restoration of degraded landscapes and, where feasible, targeted ex situ conservation and planting.

Development and characterization of 27 microsatellite markers for the mangrove fern, Acrostichum aureum (Pteridaceae).

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Twenty-seven nuclear microsatellite markers were developed for the mangrove fern, Acrostichum aureum (Pteridaceae), to investigate the genetic structure and demographic history of the only pantropical mangrove plant. METHODS AND RESULTS: Fifty-six A. aureum individuals from three populations were sampled and genotyped to characterize the 27 loci. The number of alleles and expected heterozygosity ranged from one to 15 and 0.000 to 0.893, respectively. Across the 26 polymorphic loci, the Malaysian population showed much higher levels of polymorphism compared to the other two populations in Guam and Brazil. Cross-amplification tests in the other two species from the genus determined that seven and six loci were amplifiable in A. danaeifolium and A. speciosum, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 26 polymorphic microsatellite markers will be useful for future studies investigating the genetic structure and demographic history of of A. aureum, which has the widest distributional range of all mangrove plants.

Genetic differentiation and phylogeography of partially sympatric species complex Rhizophora mucronata Lam. and R. stylosa Griff. using SSR markers.

BACKGROUND: Mangrove forests are ecologically important but globally threatened intertidal plant communities. Effective mangrove conservation requires the determination of species identity, management units, and genetic structure. Here, we investigate the genetic distinctiveness and genetic structure of an iconic but yet taxonomically confusing species complex Rhizophora mucronata and R. stylosa across their distributional range, by employing a suite of 20 informative nuclear SSR markers. RESULTS: Our results demonstrated the general genetic distinctiveness of R. mucronata and R. stylosa, and potential hybridization or introgression between them. We investigated the population genetics of each species without the putative hybrids, and found strong genetic structure between oceanic regions in both R. mucronata and R. stylosa. In R. mucronata, a strong divergence was detected between populations from the Indian Ocean region (Indian Ocean and Andaman Sea) and the Pacific Ocean region (Malacca Strait, South China Sea and Northwest Pacific Ocean). In R. stylosa, the genetic break was located more eastward, between populations from South and East China Sea and populations from the Southwest Pacific Ocean. The location of these genetic breaks coincided with the boundaries of oceanic currents, thus suggesting that oceanic circulation patterns might have acted as a cryptic barrier to gene flow. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings have important implications on the conservation of mangroves, especially relating to replanting efforts and the definition of evolutionary significant units in Rhizophora species. We outlined the genetic structure and identified geographical areas that require further investigations for both R. mucronata and R. stylosa. These results serve as the foundation for the conservation genetics of R. mucronata and R. stylosa and highlighted the need to recognize the genetic distinctiveness of closely-related species, determine their respective genetic structure, and avoid artificially promoting hybridization in mangrove restoration programmes.

High genetic diversity in a potentially vulnerable tropical tree species despite extreme habitat loss.

Over the last 150 years, Singapore's primary forest has been reduced to less than 0.2% of its previous area, resulting in extinctions of native flora and fauna. Remaining species may be threatened by genetic erosion and inbreeding. We surveyed >95% of the remaining primary forest in Singapore and used eight highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess genetic diversity indices of 179 adults (>30 cm stem diameter), 193 saplings (>1 yr), and 1,822 seedlings (<1 yr) of the canopy tree Koompassia malaccensis (Fabaceae). We tested hypotheses relevant to the genetic consequences of habitat loss: (1) that the K. malaccensis population in Singapore experienced a genetic bottleneck and a reduction in effective population size, and (2) K. malaccensis recruits would exhibit genetic erosion and inbreeding compared to adults. Contrary to expectations, we detected neither a population bottleneck nor a reduction in effective population size, and high genetic diversity in all age classes. Genetic diversity indices among age classes were not significantly different: we detected overall high expected heterozygosity (He = 0.843-0.854), high allelic richness (R = 16.7-19.5), low inbreeding co-efficients (FIS = 0.013-0.076), and a large proportion (30.1%) of rare alleles (i.e. frequency <1%). However, spatial genetic structure (SGS) analyses showed significant differences between the adults and the recruits. We detected significantly greater SGS intensity, as well as higher relatedness in the 0-10 m distance class, for seedlings and saplings compared to the adults. Demographic factors for this population (i.e. <200 adult trees) are a cause for concern, as rare alleles could be lost due to stochastic factors. The high outcrossing rate (tm = 0.961), calculated from seedlings, may be instrumental in maintaining genetic diversity and suggests that pollination by highly mobile bee species in the genus Apis may provide resilience to acute habitat loss.

Seedling establishment in a dynamic sedimentary environment: a conceptual framework using mangroves.

1. Vegetated biogeomorphic systems (e.g. mangroves, salt marshes, dunes, riparian vegetation) have been intensively studied for the impact of the biota on sediment transport processes and the resulting self-organization of such landscapes. However, there is a lack of understanding of physical disturbance mechanisms that limit primary colonization in active sedimentary environments. 2. This study elucidates the effect of sediment disturbance during the seedling stage of pioneer vegetation, using mangroves as a model system. We performed mesocosm experiments that mimicked sediment disturbance as (i) accretion/burial of plants and (ii) erosion/excavation of plants of different magnitudes and temporal distribution in combination with water movement and inundation stress. 3. Cumulative sediment disturbance reduced seedling survival, with the faster-growing Avicennia alba showing less mortality than the slower-growing Sonneratia alba. The presence of the additional stressors (inundation and water movement) predominantly reduced the survival of S. alba. 4. Non-lethal accretion treatments increased shoot biomass of the seedlings, whereas non-lethal erosion treatments increased root biomass allocation. This morphological plasticity in combination with the abiotic disturbance history determined how much maximum erosion the seedlings were able to withstand. 5.Synthesis and applications. Seedling survival in dynamic sedimentary environments is determined by the frequency and magnitude of sediment accretion or erosion events, with non-lethal events causing feedbacks to seedling stability. Managers attempting restoration of mangroves, salt marshes, dunes and riparian vegetation should recognize sediment dynamics as a main bottleneck to primary colonization. The temporal distribution of erosion and accretion events has to be evaluated against the ability of the seedlings to outgrow or adjust to disturbances. Our results suggest that selecting fast-growing pioneer species and measures to enhance seedling growth or temporary reduction in sediment dynamics at the restoration site can aid restoration success for vegetated biogeomorphic ecosystems.

Strong genetic structure over the American continents and transoceanic dispersal in the mangrove genus Rhizophora (Rhizophoraceae) revealed by broad-scale nuclear and chloroplast DNA analysis.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: The global distribution of mangroves is attributed to interactions between long-distance propagule dispersal and geographical barriers, which are manifest in genetic structuring. Uncovering this genetic structure thus provides a window into the ecological, evolutionary, and phylogeographic history of mangroves. We used cpDNA and nuclear microsatellites to evaluate transbarrier (transoceanic and transisthmian) linkages in the genus Rhizophora in the Atlantic East Pacific (AEP) and South Pacific region. • METHODS: Leaf samples of 756 individuals of Rhizophora mangle, R. racemosa, R. ×harrisonii, and R. samoensis from 36 populations across the AEP supplied material from which we used the cpDNA haplotypes and nine microsatellite markers for population analyses. • KEY RESULTS: Clear genetic differentiation of cpDNA haplotypes was found between the Pacific and Atlantic populations in R. mangle and R. racemosa, supporting the hypothesis of the Central American Isthmus as a barrier to gene flow. Both cpDNA and microsatellite analyses support the hypothesis of recent and frequent transatlantic propagule dispersal for R. mangle. Finally, we provide strong evidence for genetic similarity of Pacific R. mangle and R. samoensis suggesting trans-Pacific dispersal of R. mangle. • CONCLUSION: The American continents are strong geographical barriers to dispersal of Rhizophora, to the point where the Pacific and Atlantic populations are distinct genealogical units, supporting the recommendation to treat the populations as separate conservation and management units. Trans-Pacific propagule dispersal of Rhizophora has occurred; R. mangle and R. samoensis might be the same species and this question should be resolved with further taxonomic study.

Agricultural intensification escalates future conservation costs.

The supposition that agricultural intensification results in land sparing for conservation has become central to policy formulations across the tropics. However, underlying assumptions remain uncertain and have been little explored in the context of conservation incentive schemes such as policies for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, conservation, sustainable management, and enhancement of carbon stocks (REDD+). Incipient REDD+ forest carbon policies in a number of countries propose agricultural intensification measures to replace extensive "slash-and-burn" farming systems. These may result in conservation in some contexts, but will also increase future agricultural land rents as productivity increases, creating new incentives for agricultural expansion and deforestation. While robust governance can help to ensure land sparing, we propose that conservation incentives will also have to increase over time, tracking future agricultural land rents, which might lead to runaway conservation costs. We present a conceptual framework that depicts these relationships, supported by an illustrative model of the intensification of key crops in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a leading REDD+ country. A von Thünen land rent model is combined with geographic information systems mapping to demonstrate how agricultural intensification could influence future conservation costs. Once postintensification agricultural land rents are considered, the cost of reducing forest sector emissions could significantly exceed current and projected carbon credit prices. Our analysis highlights the importance of considering escalating conservation costs from agricultural intensification when designing conservation initiatives.