The Difficulty of Predicting Evolutionary Change in Response to Novel Ecological Interactions: A Field Experiment with Anolis Lizards.

AbstractDetermining whether and how evolution is predictable is an important goal, particularly as anthropogenic disturbances lead to novel species interactions that could modify selective pressures. Here, we use a multigeneration field experiment with brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) to test hypotheses about the predictability of evolution. We manipulated the presence/absence of predators and competitors of A. sagrei across 16 islands in the Bahamas that had preexisting brown anole populations. Before the experiment and again after roughly five generations, we measured traits related to locomotor performance and habitat use by brown anoles and used double-digest restriction enzyme-associated DNA sequencing to estimate genome-wide changes in allele frequencies. Although previous work showed that predators and competitors had characteristic effects on brown anole behavior, diet, and population sizes, we found that evolutionary change at both phenotypic and genomic levels was difficult to forecast. Phenotypic changes were contingent on sex and habitat use, whereas genetic change was unpredictable and not measurably correlated with phenotypic changes, experimental treatments, or other environmental factors. Our work shows how differences in ecological context can alter evolutionary outcomes over short timescales and underscores the difficulty of forecasting evolutionary responses to multispecies interactions in natural conditions, even in a well-studied system with ample supporting ecological information.

Predator-induced collapse of niche structure and species coexistence.

Biological invasions are both a pressing environmental challenge and an opportunity to investigate fundamental ecological processes, such as the role of top predators in regulating biodiversity and food-web structure. In whole-ecosystem manipulations of small Caribbean islands on which brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) were the native top predator, we experimentally staged invasions by competitors (green anoles, Anolis smaragdinus) and/or new top predators (curly-tailed lizards, Leiocephalus carinatus). We show that curly-tailed lizards destabilized the coexistence of competing prey species, contrary to the classic idea of keystone predation. Fear-driven avoidance of predators collapsed the spatial and dietary niche structure that otherwise stabilized coexistence, which intensified interspecific competition within predator-free refuges and contributed to the extinction of green-anole populations on two islands. Moreover, whereas adding either green anoles or curly-tailed lizards lengthened food chains on the islands, adding both species reversed this effect-in part because the apex predators were trophic omnivores. Our results underscore the importance of top-down control in ecological communities, but show that its outcomes depend on prey behaviour, spatial structure, and omnivory. Diversity-enhancing effects of top predators cannot be assumed, and non-consumptive effects of predation risk may be a widespread constraint on species coexistence.

Hybridization and rapid differentiation after secondary contact between the native green anole (Anolis carolinensis) and the introduced green anole (Anolis porcatus).

In allopatric species, reproductive isolation evolves through the accumulation of genetic incompatibilities. The degree of divergence required for complete reproductive isolation is highly variable across taxa, which makes the outcome of secondary contact between allopatric species unpredictable. Since before the Pliocene, two species of Anolis lizards, Anolis carolinensis and Anolis porcatus, have been allopatric, yet this period of independent evolution has not led to substantial species-specific morphological differentiation, and therefore, they might not be reproductively isolated. In this study, we determined the genetic consequences of localized, secondary contact between the native green anole, A. carolinensis, and the introduced Cuban green anole, A. porcatus, in South Miami. Using 18 microsatellite markers, we found that the South Miami population formed a genetic cluster distinct from both parental species. Mitochondrial DNA revealed maternal A. porcatus ancestry for 35% of the individuals sampled from this population, indicating a high degree of cytonuclear discordance. Thus, hybridization with A. porcatus, not just population structure within A. carolinensis, may be responsible for the genetic distinctiveness of this population. Using tree-based maximum-likelihood analysis, we found support for a more recent, secondary introduction of A. porcatus to Florida. Evidence that ~33% of the nuclear DNA resulted from a secondary introduction supports the hybrid origin of the green anole population in South Miami. We used multiple lines of evidence and multiple genetic markers to reconstruct otherwise cryptic patterns of species introduction and hybridization. Genetic evidence for a lack of reproductive isolation, as well as morphological similarities between the two species, supports revising the taxonomy of A. carolinensis to include A. porcatus from western Cuba. Future studies should target the current geographic extent of introgression originating from the past injection of genetic material from Cuban green anoles and determine the consequences for the evolutionary trajectory of green anole populations in southern Florida.

Untangling intra- and interspecific effects on body size clines reveals divergent processes structuring convergent patterns in Anolis lizards.

Bergmann's rule-the tendency for body size to increase in colder environments-remains controversial today, despite 150 years of research. Considerable debate has revolved around whether the rule applies within or among species. However, this debate has generally not considered that clade-level relationships are caused by both intra- and interspecific effects. In this article, we implement a novel approach that allows for the separation of intra- and interspecific components of trait-environment relationships. We apply this approach to body size clines in two Caribbean clades of Anolis lizards and discover that their similar body size gradients are constructed in very different ways. We find inverse Bergmann's clines-high-elevation lizards are smaller bodied-for both the cybotes clade on Hispaniola and the sagrei clade on Cuba. However, on Hispaniola, the inverse cline is driven by interspecific differences, whereas intraspecific variation is responsible for the inverse cline on Cuba. Our results suggest that similar body size clines can be constructed through differing evolutionary and ecological processes, namely, through local adaptation or phenotypic plasticity (intraspecific clines) and/or size-ordered spatial sorting (interspecific clines). We propose that our approach can help integrate a divided research program by focusing on how the combined effects of intra- and interspecific processes can enhance or erode clade-level relationships at large biogeographic scales.