Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival Based on Ferritin and Transferrin Ratio in Breast Cancer Patients.

BACKGROUND: Our objective is to develop a predictive model utilizing the ferritin and transferrin ratio (FTR) and clinical factors to forecast overall survival (OS) in breast cancer (BC) patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 2858 BC patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2021. Subsequently, the cohort of 2858 BC patients underwent random assignment into distinct subsets: a training cohort comprising 2002 patients and a validation cohort comprising 856 patients, maintaining a proportional ratio of 7:3. Employing multivariable Cox regression analysis within the training cohort, we derived a prognostic nomogram. The predictive performance was assessed using calibration curves, C-index, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The final prognostic model included the TNM stage, subtype, hemoglobin levels, and the ferritin-transferrin ratio. The nomogram achieved a C-index of .794 (95% CI: .777-.810). The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive accuracy for OS at 3, 5, and 7 years for BC, with area under the time-dependent curves of .812, .782, and .773, respectively. These values notably outperformed those of the conventional TNM stage. Decision curve analysis reaffirmed the greater net benefit of our nomogram compared to the TNM stage. These findings were subsequently validated in the independent validation cohort. CONCLUSION: The FTR-based prognostic model may predict a patient's OS better than the TNM stage in a clinical setting. The nomogram can provide an early, affordable, and reliable tool for survival prediction, as well as aid clinicians in treatment option-making and prognosis evaluation. However, further multi-center prospective trials are required to confirm the reliability of the existing nomogram.

BackgroundOur objective is to develop a predictive model utilizing the ferritin and transferrin ratio (FTR) and clinical factors to forecast overall survival (OS) in breast cancer (BC) patients.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 2858 BC patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2021. Subsequently, the cohort of 2858 BC patients underwent random assignment into distinct subsets: a training cohort comprising 2002 patients and a validation cohort comprising 856 patients, maintaining a proportional ratio of 7:3. Employing multivariable Cox regression analysis within the training cohort, we derived a prognostic nomogram. The predictive performance was assessed using calibration curves, C-index, and decision curve analysis.ResultsThe final prognostic model included the TNM stage, subtype, hemoglobin levels, and the ferritin-transferrin ratio. The nomogram achieved a C-index of .794 (95% CI: .777-.810). The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive accuracy for OS at 3, 5, and 7 years for BC, with area under the time-dependent curves of .812, .782, and .773, respectively. These values notably outperformed those of the conventional TNM stage. Decision curve analysis reaffirmed the greater net benefit of our nomogram compared to the TNM stage. These findings were subsequently validated in the independent validation cohort.ConclusionThe FTR-based prognostic model may predict a patient's OS better than the TNM stage in a clinical setting. The nomogram can provide an early, affordable, and reliable tool for survival prediction, as well as aid clinicians in treatment option-making and prognosis evaluation. However, further multi-center prospective trials are required to confirm the reliability of the existing nomogram.

Cost-effective prognostic evaluation of breast cancer: using a STAR nomogram model based on routine blood tests.

Background: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common and prominent deadly disease among women. Predicting BC survival mainly relies on TNM staging, molecular profiling and imaging, hampered by subjectivity and expenses. This study aimed to establish an economical and reliable model using the most common preoperative routine blood tests (RT) data for survival and surveillance strategy management. Methods: We examined 2863 BC patients, dividing them into training and validation cohorts (7:3). We collected demographic features, pathomics characteristics and preoperative 24-item RT data. BC risk factors were identified through Cox regression, and a predictive nomogram was established. Its performance was assessed using C-index, area under curves (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis. Kaplan-Meier curves stratified patients into different risk groups. We further compared the STAR model (utilizing HE and RT methodologies) with alternative nomograms grounded in molecular profiling (employing second-generation short-read sequencing methodologies) and imaging (utilizing PET-CT methodologies). Results: The STAR nomogram, incorporating subtype, TNM stage, age and preoperative RT data (LYM, LYM%, EOSO%, RDW-SD, P-LCR), achieved a C-index of 0.828 in the training cohort and impressive AUCs (0.847, 0.823 and 0.780) for 3-, 5- and 7-year OS rates, outperforming other nomograms. The validation cohort showed similar impressive results. The nomogram calculates a patient's total score by assigning values to each risk factor, higher scores indicating a poor prognosis. STAR promises potential cost savings by enabling less intensive surveillance in around 90% of BC patients. Compared to nomograms based on molecular profiling and imaging, STAR presents a more cost-effective, with potential savings of approximately $700-800 per breast cancer patient. Conclusion: Combining appropriate RT parameters, STAR nomogram could help in the detection of patient anemia, coagulation function, inflammation and immune status. Practical implementation of the STAR nomogram in a clinical setting is feasible, and its potential clinical impact lies in its ability to provide an early, economical and reliable tool for survival prediction and surveillance strategy management. However, our model still has limitations and requires external data validation. In subsequent studies, we plan to mitigate the potential impact on model robustness by further updating and adjusting the data and model.

Clonorchis sinensis infection amplifies hepatocellular carcinoma stemness, predicting unfavorable prognosis.

BACKGROUND: Extensive evidence links Clonorchis sinensis (C. sinensis) to cholangiocarcinoma; however, its association with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is less acknowledged, and the underlying mechanism remains unclear. This study was designed to investigate the association between C. sinensis infection and HCC and reveal the relationship between C. sinensis infection and cancer stemness. METHODS: A comprehensive analysis of 839 HCC patients categorized into C. sinensis (-) HCC and C. sinensis (+) HCC groups was conducted. Chi-square and Mann-Whitney U tests were used to assess the association between C. sinensis infection and clinical factors. Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate survival outcomes. Immunohistochemistry was used to determine CK19 and EpCAM expression in HCC specimens. RESULTS: Compared to C. sinensis (-) HCC patients, C. sinensis (+) HCC patients exhibited advanced Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage, higher male prevalence and more liver cirrhosis as well as elevated alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), eosinophil, complement 3 (C3), and complement 4 (C4) values. C. sinensis infection correlated with shorter overall survival (OS) (p < 0.05) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) (p < 0.05). Furthermore, Cox multivariate analysis revealed that C. sinensis infection was an independent prognostic factor for OS in HCC patients. Importantly, C. sinensis infection upregulated the expression of HCC cancer stem cell markers CK19 and EpCAM. CONCLUSION: HCC patients with C. sinensis infection exhibit a poor prognosis following hepatectomy. Moreover, C. sinensis infection promotes the acquisition of cancer stem cell-like characteristics, consequently accelerating the malignant progression of HCC. AUTHOR SUMMARY: Clonorchis sinensis (C. sinensis) is a prominent food-borne parasite prevalent in regions such as China, particularly in Guangxi. C. sinensis has been associated with various hepatobiliary system injuries, encompassing inflammation, periductal fibrosis, cholangiocarcinoma and even hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A substantial body of evidence links C. sinensis to cholangiocarcinoma, However, the connection between C. sinensis and HCC and the intricate mechanisms underlying its contribution to HCC development remain incompletely elucidated. Our study demonstrates clear clinicopathological associations between C. sinensis and HCC, such as gender, BCLC stage, liver cirrhosis, MVI, AFP, CA19-9, circulating eosinophils and complements. Furthermore, we found that the co-occurrence of C. sinensis exhibited a significant association with shorter OS and RFS in patients diagnosed with HCC. A major finding was that C. sinensis infection promotes the acquisition of cancer stem cell-like characteristics, consequently accelerating the malignant progression of HCC. Our results provide a more comprehensive comprehension of the interplay between C. sinensis and HCC, shedding fresh light on the carcinogenic potential of C. sinensis.