The burden and predictors of 30-day unplanned readmission in patients with acute liver failure: a national representative database study.

BACKGROUND: Liver diseases were significant source of early readmission burden. This study aimed to evaluate the 30-day unplanned readmission rates, causes of readmissions, readmission costs, and predictors of readmission in patients with acute liver failure (ALF). METHODS: Patients admitted for ALF from 2019 National Readmission Database were enrolled. Weighted multivariable logistic regression models were applied and based on Directed Acyclic Graphs. Incidence, causes, cost, and predictors of 30-day unplanned readmissions were identified. RESULTS: A total of 3,281 patients with ALF were enrolled, of whom 600 (18.3%) were readmitted within 30 days. The mean time from discharge to early readmission was 12.6 days. The average hospital cost and charge of readmission were $19,629 and $86,228, respectively. The readmissions were mainly due to liver-related events (26.6%), followed by infection (20.9%). The predictive factors independently associated with readmissions were age, male sex (OR 1.227, 95% CI 1.023-1.472; P = 0.028), renal failure (OR 1.401, 95% CI 1.139-1.723; P = 0.001), diabetes with chronic complications (OR 1.327, 95% CI 1.053-1.672; P = 0.017), complicated hypertension (OR 1.436, 95% CI 1.111-1.857; P = 0.006), peritoneal drainage (OR 1.600, 95% CI 1.092-2.345; P = 0.016), etc. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ALF are at relatively high risk of early readmission, which imposes a heavy medical and economic burden on society. We need to increase the emphasis placed on early readmission of patients with ALF and establish clinical strategies for their management.

Prognostic value of neutrophil count to albumin ratio in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Our study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of neutrophil count to albumin ratio (NAR) in predicting short-term mortality of patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC). A total of 623 DC patients were recruited from a retrospective observational cohort study. They were admitted to our hospital from January 2014 to December 2015. NAR of each patient was calculated and analyzed for the association with 90-day liver transplantation-free (LT-free) outcome. The performance of NAR and the integrated model were tested by a receiver-operator curve (ROC) and C-index. The 90-day LT-free mortality of patients with DC was 10.6%. NAR was significantly higher in 90-day non-survivors than in survivors (The median: 1.73 vs 0.76, P < 0.001). A threshold of 1.40 of NAR differentiated patients with a high risk of death (27.45%) from those with a low risk (5.11%). By multivariate analysis, high NAR was independently associated with poor short-term prognosis (high group: 5.07 (2.78, 9.22)). NAR alone had an area under the ROC curve of 0.794 and C-index of 0.7789 (0.7287, 0.8291) in predicting 90-day mortality. The integrated MELD-NAR (iMELD) model had a higher area under the ROC (0.872) and C-index (0.8558 (0.8122, 0.8994)) than the original MELD in predicting 90-day mortality. NAR can be used as an independent predictor of poor outcomes for patients with DC during short-term follow-up.

The burden of liver cirrhosis and underlying etiologies: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major health concern. Herein, we aimed to estimate the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of liver cirrhosis caused by specific etiologies for 204 countries and territories. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized death rate, and estimated annual percentage changes were used to estimate the trends in incidence, prevalence, and mortality of liver cirrhosis by sex, region, country, and etiology between 2009 and 2019. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2019, the incident cases of liver cirrhosis increased by 16.7%, from 1.8 million (95% uncertainty interval: 1.5-2.1) to 2.1 million (1.7-2.5), and the prevalent cases increased from 1378.3 million (1275.1-1498.8) to 1691.0 million (1560.9-1845.5). Liver cirrhosis contributed to nearly 1.5 million (1.4-1.6) deaths in 2019, nearly 0.2 million more than in 2009. However, the age-standardized death rate fell from 20.71 (19.79-21.65) per 100,000 population in 2009 to 18.00 (16.80-19.31) per 100,000 population in 2019. In terms of sex, males showed higher ASIR, ASPR, and age-standardized death rate than females. Among the etiologies, the ASIR and ASPR of NAFLD increased markedly, and there was also a modest increase in ASIR and ASPR for HCV and alcohol use. In contrast, the ASIR and ASPR of HBV decreased considerably. CONCLUSIONS: Our finding suggests an increasing burden of liver cirrhosis worldwide but a declining attributed death. A high prevalence and still rising trend of NAFLD and alcohol use-etiology were found in patients with cirrhosis globally, although variation was found between regions/countries. These data indicate that efforts to reduce the associated burden need to be improved.

Acute decompensation events differentially impact the risk of nosocomial infections and short-term outcomes in patients with cirrhosis.

Aims: This research aimed to evaluate the influence of acute decompensation (AD) events upon admission on the subsequent risk of nosocomial infections (NIs) and the synergy between AD and the following NIs on the short-term outcome. Methods: A total of 419 hospitalized individuals with cirrhosis and AD participated in the current study. Various AD events at admission and outcomes in patients with or without NIs were compared. The logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were designed for NIs development and liver transplant (LT)-free mortality at 28 and 90 days, respectively. Results: During hospitalization, 91 patients developed NIs. Notably, a higher proportion of patients with NIs had jaundice (52.7 vs. 30.5%; p < 0.001) and bacterial infections (37.4 vs. 20.7%; p = 0.001) at admission compared to patients without NIs, while a lower proportion suffered gastrointestinal hemorrhage (16.5 vs. 36.6%; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that jaundice was independently linked with the development of NIs (OR, 2.732; 95% CI: 1.104-6.762). The 28-day (16.5 vs. 7.3%; p = 0.008) and 90-day (27.5 vs. 15.9%; p = 0.011) LT-free mortality rates of patients with NIs were significantly higher than those without NIs. According to the Cox proportional hazards model, jaundice remained an independent risk factor for 90-day death (HR, 5.775; 95% CI: 1.217-27.397). The connection between total bilirubin and 90-day mortality was nonlinear, and a 6 mg/mL threshold was proposed. Conclusion: The types of AD events differentially predispose to risk of NIs. Presenting jaundice at admission is independently associated with NIs occurrence and increased 90-day mortality of patients with NIs. Antibiotic prophylaxis may benefit this specific subset of patients.