Development of a long noncoding RNA-based machine learning model to predict COVID-19 in-hospital mortality.

Tools for predicting COVID-19 outcomes enable personalized healthcare, potentially easing the disease burden. This collaborative study by 15 institutions across Europe aimed to develop a machine learning model for predicting the risk of in-hospital mortality post-SARS-CoV-2 infection. Blood samples and clinical data from 1286 COVID-19 patients collected from 2020 to 2023 across four cohorts in Europe and Canada were analyzed, with 2906 long non-coding RNAs profiled using targeted sequencing. From a discovery cohort combining three European cohorts and 804 patients, age and the long non-coding RNA LEF1-AS1 were identified as predictive features, yielding an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI 0.82-0.84) and a balanced accuracy of 0.78 (95% CI 0.77-0.79) with a feedforward neural network classifier. Validation in an independent Canadian cohort of 482 patients showed consistent performance. Cox regression analysis indicated that higher levels of LEF1-AS1 correlated with reduced mortality risk (age-adjusted hazard ratio 0.54, 95% CI 0.40-0.74). Quantitative PCR validated LEF1-AS1's adaptability to be measured in hospital settings. Here, we demonstrate a promising predictive model for enhancing COVID-19 patient management.

Application of the Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction in Clinical Practice in Scotland and Sweden.

Importance: Whether the diagnostic classifications proposed by the universal definition of myocardial infarction (MI) to identify type 1 MI due to atherothrombosis and type 2 MI due to myocardial oxygen supply-demand imbalance have been applied consistently in clinical practice is unknown. Objective: To evaluate the application of the universal definition of MI in consecutive patients with possible MI across 2 health care systems. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data from 2 prospective cohorts enrolling consecutive patients with possible MI in Scotland (2013-2016) and Sweden (2011-2014) to assess accuracy of clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in hospital records for patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 MI. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to February 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the proportion of patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI recorded in the hospital records who had type 1 or type 2 MI, adjudicated by an independent panel according to the universal definition. Characteristics and risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death at 1 year were compared. Results: A total of 50 356 patients were assessed. The cohort from Scotland included 28 783 (15 562 men [54%]; mean [SD] age, 60 [17] years), and the cohort from Sweden included 21 573 (11 110 men [51%]; mean [SD] age, 56 [17] years) patients. In Scotland, a clinical diagnosis of MI was recorded in 2506 of 3187 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (79%) and 122 of 716 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (17%). Similar findings were observed in Sweden, with 970 of 1111 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI (87%) and 57 of 251 patients with adjudicated diagnosis of type 2 MI (23%) receiving a clinical diagnosis of MI. Patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 MI without a clinical diagnosis were more likely to be women (eg, 336 women [49%] vs 909 women [36%] in Scotland; P < .001) and older (mean [SD] age, 71 [14] v 67 [14] years in Scotland, P < .001) and, when adjusting for competing risk from noncardiovascular death, were at similar or increased risk of subsequent MI or cardiovascular death compared with patients with a clinical diagnosis of MI (eg, 29% vs 18% in Scotland; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the universal definition of MI was not consistently applied in clinical practice, with a minority of patients with type 2 MI identified, and type 1 MI underrecognized in women and older persons, suggesting uncertainty remains regarding the diagnostic criteria or value of the classification.

Uniform or Sex-Specific Cardiac Troponin Thresholds to Rule Out Myocardial Infarction at Presentation.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial infarction can be ruled out in patients with a single cardiac troponin measurement. Whether use of a uniform rule-out threshold has resulted in sex differences in care remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate implementation of a uniform rule-out threshold in females and males with possible myocardial infarction, and to derive and validate sex-specific thresholds. METHODS: The implementation of a uniform rule-out threshold (<5 ng/L) with a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay was evaluated in consecutive patients presenting with possible myocardial infarction. The proportion of low-risk patients discharged from the emergency department and incidence of myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days were determined. Sex-specific thresholds were derived and validated, and proportion of female and male patients were stratified as low-risk compared with uniform threshold. RESULTS: In 16,792 patients (age 58 ± 17 years; 46% female) care was guided using a uniform threshold. This identified more female than male patients as low risk (73% vs 62%), but a similar proportion of low-risk patients were discharged from the emergency department (81% for both) with fewer than 5 (<0.1%) patients having a subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death at 30 days. Compared with a uniform threshold of <5 ng/L, use of sex-specific thresholds would increase the proportion of female (61.8% vs 65.9%) and reduce the proportion of male (54.8% vs 47.8%) patients identified as low risk. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a uniform rule-out threshold for myocardial infarction was safe and effective in both sexes. Sex-specific rule-out thresholds should be considered, but their impact on effectiveness and safety may be limited.

COVID-19 plasma induces subcellular remodelling within the pulmonary microvascular endothelium.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can affect multiple organ systems, including the pulmonary vasculature. Endothelial cells (ECs) are thought to play a key role in the propagation of COVID-19, however, our understanding of the exact scale of dysregulation sustained by the pulmonary microvasculature (pMV) remains incomplete. Here we aim to identify transcriptional, phenotypic, and functional changes within the pMV induced by COVID-19. METHODS AND RESULTS: Human pulmonary microvascular endothelial cells (HPMVEC) treated with plasma acquired from patients hospitalised with severe COVID-19 were compared to HPMVEC treated with plasma from patients hospitalised without COVID-19 but with other severe illnesses. Exposure to COVID-19 plasma caused a significant functional decline in HPMVECs as seen by a decrease in both cell viability via the WST-1 cell-proliferation assay and cell-to-cell barrier function as measured by electric cell-substrate impedance sensing. High-content imaging using a Cell Painting image-based assay further quantified morphological variations within sub-cellular organelles to show phenotypic changes in the whole endothelial cell, nucleus, mitochondria, plasma membrane and nucleolus morphology. RNA-sequencing of HPMVECs treated with COVID-19 plasma suggests the observed phenotype may, in part, be regulated by genes such as SMAD7, BCOR, SFMBT1, IFIT5 and ZNF566 which are involved in transcriptional regulation, protein monoubiquitination and TGF-ß signalling. CONCLUSION AND IMPACT: During COVID-19, the pMV undergoes significant remodelling, which is evident based on the functional, phenotypic, and transcriptional changes seen following exposure to COVID-19 plasma. The observed morphological variation may be responsible for downstream complications, such as a decline in overall cellular function and cell-to-cell barrier integrity. Moreover, genes identified through bulk RNA sequencing may contribute to our understanding of the observed phenotype and assist in developing strategies that can inform the rescue of the dysregulated endothelium.

Implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay and risk of myocardial infarction or death at five years: observational analysis of a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of implementing a high sensitivity assay for cardiac troponin I on long term outcomes in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. DESIGN: Secondary observational analysis of a stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial. SETTING: 10 secondary and tertiary care centres in Scotland, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 48 282 consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Myocardial injury was defined as any high sensitivity assay result for cardiac troponin I >99th centile of 16 ng/L in women and 34 ng/L in men. INTERVENTION: Hospital sites were randomly allocated to either early (n=5 hospitals) or late (n=5 hospitals) implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay with sex specific diagnostic thresholds. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome was myocardial infarction or death at five years. RESULTS: 10 360 patients had cardiac troponin concentrations greater than the 99th centile, of whom 1771 (17.1%) were reclassified by the high sensitivity assay. The five year incidence of subsequent myocardial infarction or death before and after implementation of the high sensitivity assay was 29.4% (5588/18 978) v 25.9% (7591/29 304), respectively, in all patients (adjusted hazard ratio 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.93 to 1.01), and 63.0% (456/720) v 53.9% (567/1051), respectively, in those reclassified by the high sensitivity assay (0.82, 0.72 to 0.94). After implementation of the high sensitivity assay, a reduction in subsequent myocardial infarction or death was observed in patients with non-ischaemic myocardial injury (0.83, 0.75 to 0.91) but not in those with type 1 or type 2 myocardial infarction (0.92, 0.83 to 1.01 and 0.98, 0.84 to 1.14). CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a high sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay in the assessment of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome was associated with a reduced risk of subsequent myocardial infarction or death at five years in those reclassified by the high sensitivity assay. Improvements in outcome were greatest in patients with non-ischaemic myocardial injury, suggesting a broader benefit beyond the identification of myocardial infarction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01852123.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin for Risk Assessment in Patients With Chronic Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac troponin is used for risk stratification of patients with acute coronary syndromes; however, the role of testing in other settings remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate whether cardiac troponin testing could enhance risk stratification in patients with chronic coronary artery disease independent of disease severity and conventional risk measures. METHODS: In a prospective cohort of consecutive patients with symptoms suggestive of stable angina attending for outpatient coronary angiography, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I was measured before angiography, and clinicians were blinded to the results. The primary outcome was myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death during follow-up. RESULTS: In 4,240 patients (age 66 years [IQR: 59-73 years], 33% female), coronary artery disease was identified in 3,888 (92%) who had 255 (6%) primary outcome events during a median follow-up of 2.4 years (IQR: 1.3-3.6 years). In patients with coronary artery disease, troponin concentrations were 2-fold higher in those with an event compared with those without (6.7 ng/L [IQR: 3.2-14.2 ng/L] vs 3.3 ng/L [IQR: 1.7-6.6 ng/L]; P < 0.001). Troponin concentrations were associated with the primary outcome after adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery disease severity (adjusted HR: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.7-3.0, log10 troponin; P < 0.001). A troponin concentration >10 ng/L identified patients with a 50% increase in the risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic coronary artery disease, cardiac troponin predicts risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death independent of cardiovascular risk factors and disease severity. Further studies are required to evaluate whether routine testing could inform the selection of high-risk patients for treatment intensification. (Myocardial Injury in Patients Referred for Coronary Angiography [MICA]; ISRCTN15620297).

Troponin in early presenters to rule out myocardial infarction.

AIMS: Whether a single cardiac troponin measurement can safely rule out myocardial infarction in patients presenting within a few hours of symptom onset is uncertain. The study aim was to assess the performance of troponin in early presenters. METHODS AND RESULTS: In patients with possible myocardial infarction, the diagnostic performance of a single measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I at presentation was evaluated and externally validated in those tested ≤3, 4-12, and >12 h from symptom onset. The limit-of-detection (2 ng/L), rule-out (5 ng/L), and sex-specific 99th centile (16 ng/L in women; 34 ng/L in men) thresholds were compared. In 41 103 consecutive patients [60 (17) years, 46% women], 12 595 (31%) presented within 3 h, and 3728 (9%) had myocardial infarction. In those presenting ≤3 h, a threshold of 2 ng/L had greater sensitivity and negative predictive value [99.4% (95% confidence interval 99.2%-99.5%) and 99.7% (99.6%-99.8%)] compared with 5 ng/L [96.5% (96.2%-96.8%) and 99.3% (99.1%-99.4%)]. In those presenting ≥3 h, the sensitivity and negative predictive value were similar for both thresholds. The sensitivity of the 99th centile was low in early and late presenters at 71.4% (70.6%-72.2%) and 92.5% (92.0%-93.0%), respectively. Findings were consistent in an external validation cohort of 7088 patients. CONCLUSION: In early presenters, a single measurement of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I below the limit of detection may facilitate the safe rule out of myocardial infarction. The 99th centile should not be used to rule out myocardial infarction at presentation even in those presenting later following symptom onset.

Single Troponin Measurement to Rule Out Myocardial Infarction: JACC Review Topic of the Week.

The term "single-sample rule-out" refers to the ability of very low concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn) on presentation to exclude acute myocardial infarction with high clinical sensitivity and negative predictive value. Observational and randomized studies have confirmed this ability. Some guidelines endorse use of a concentration of hs-cTn at the assay's limit of detection, while other studies have validated the use of higher concentrations, allowing this approach to identify a greater proportion of patients at low risk. In most studies, at least 30% of patients can be triaged with this approach. The concentration of hs-cTn varies according to the assay used and sometimes how regulations permit reporting. It is clear that patients need to be at least 2 hours from the onset of symptoms being evaluated. Caution is warranted, particularly with older patients, women, and patients with underlying cardiac comorbidities.

Troponin in acute chest pain to risk stratify and guide effective use of computed tomography coronary angiography (TARGET-CTCA): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to the emergency department will be discharged once myocardial infarction has been ruled out, although a proportion will have unrecognised coronary artery disease. In this setting, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin identifies those at increased risk of future cardiac events. In patients with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations in whom myocardial infarction has been ruled out, this trial aims to investigate whether outpatient computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) reduces subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death. METHODS: TARGET-CTCA is a multicentre prospective randomised open label with blinded endpoint parallel group event driven trial. After myocardial infarction and clear alternative diagnoses have been ruled out, participants with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations (5 ng/L to 99th centile upper reference limit) will be randomised 1:1 to outpatient CTCA plus standard of care or standard of care alone. The primary endpoint is myocardial infarction or cardiac death. Secondary endpoints include clinical, patient-centred, process and cost-effectiveness. Recruitment of 2270 patients will give 90% power with a two-sided P value of 0.05 to detect a 40% relative risk reduction in the primary endpoint. Follow-up will continue until 97 primary outcome events have been accrued in the standard care arm with an estimated median follow-up of 36 months. DISCUSSION: This randomised controlled trial will determine whether high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-guided CTCA can improve outcomes and reduce subsequent major adverse cardiac events in patients presenting to the emergency department who do not have myocardial infarction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03952351. Registered on May 16, 2019.

Adjudicated myocarditis and multisystem illness trajectory in healthcare workers post-COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the associations of healthcare worker status with multisystem illness trajectory in hospitalised post-COVID-19 individuals. METHODS AND RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-eight patients were evaluated 28-60 days after the last episode of hospital care. Thirty-six (21%) were healthcare workers. Compared with non-healthcare workers, healthcare workers were of similar age (51.3 (8.7) years vs 55.0 (12.4) years; p=0.09) more often women (26 (72%) vs 48 (38%); p<0.01) and had lower 10-year cardiovascular risk (%) (8.1 (7.9) vs 15.0 (11.5); p<0.01) and Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium in-hospital mortality risk (7.3 (10.2) vs 12.7 (9.8); p<0.01). Healthcare worker status associated with less acute inflammation (peak C reactive protein 48 mg/L (IQR: 14-165) vs 112 mg/L (52-181)), milder illness reflected by WHO clinical severity score distribution (p=0.04) and shorter duration of admission (4 days (IQR: 2-6) vs 6 days (3-12)).In adjusted multivariate logistic regression analysis, healthcare worker status associated with a binary classification (probable/very likely vs not present/unlikely) of adjudicated myocarditis (OR: 2.99; 95% CI (1.01 to 8.89) by 28-60 days postdischarge).After a mean (SD, range) duration of follow-up after hospital discharge of 450 (88) days (range 290, 627 days), fewer healthcare workers died or were rehospitalised (1 (3%) vs 22 (17%); p=0.038) and secondary care referrals for post-COVID-19 syndrome were common (42%) and similar to non-healthcare workers (38%; p=0.934). CONCLUSION: Healthcare worker status was independently associated with the likelihood of adjudicated myocarditis, despite better antecedent health. Two in five healthcare workers had a secondary care referral for post-COVID-19 syndrome. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04403607.

Coronary low-attenuation plaque and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin.

OBJECTIVE: In patients with acute chest pain who have had myocardial infarction excluded, plasma cardiac troponin I concentrations ≥5 ng/L are associated with risk of future adverse cardiovascular events. We aim to evaluate the association between cardiac troponin and coronary plaque composition in such patients. METHODS: In a prespecified secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study, blinded quantitative plaque analysis was performed on 242 CT coronary angiograms of patients with acute chest pain in whom myocardial infarction was excluded. Patients were stratified by peak plasma cardiac troponin I concentration ≥5 ng/L or <5 ng/L. Associations were assessed using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: The cohort was predominantly middle-aged (62±12 years) men (69%). Patients with plasma cardiac troponin I concentration ≥5 ng/L (n=161) had a higher total (median 33% (IQR 0-47) vs 0% (IQR 0-33)), non-calcified (27% (IQR 0-37) vs 0% (IQR 0-28)), calcified (2% (IQR 0-8) vs 0% (IQR 0-3)) and low-attenuation (1% (IQR 0-3) vs 0% (IQR 0-1)) coronary plaque burden compared with those with concentrations <5 ng/L (n=81; p≤0.001 for all). Low-attenuation plaque burden was independently associated with plasma cardiac troponin I concentration ≥5 ng/L after adjustment for clinical characteristics (adjusted OR per doubling 1.62 (95% CI 1.17 to 2.32), p=0.005) or presence of any visible coronary artery disease (adjusted OR per doubling 1.57 (95% CI 1.07 to 2.37), p=0.026). CONCLUSION: In patients with acute chest pain but without myocardial infarction, plasma cardiac troponin I concentrations ≥5 ng/L are associated with greater burden of low-attenuation coronary plaque.

Improving Risk Stratification for Patients With Type 2 Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Despite poor cardiovascular outcomes, there are no dedicated, validated risk stratification tools to guide investigation or treatment in type 2 myocardial infarction. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to derive and validate a risk stratification tool for the prediction of death or future myocardial infarction in patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. METHODS: The T2-risk score was developed in a prospective multicenter cohort of consecutive patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. Cox proportional hazards models were constructed for the primary outcome of myocardial infarction or death at 1 year using variables selected a priori based on clinical importance. Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiving-operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration was investigated graphically. The tool was validated in a single-center cohort of consecutive patients and in a multicenter cohort study from sites across Europe. RESULTS: There were 1,121, 250, and 253 patients in the derivation, single-center, and multicenter validation cohorts, with the primary outcome occurring in 27% (297 of 1,121), 26% (66 of 250), and 14% (35 of 253) of patients, respectively. The T2-risk score incorporating age, ischemic heart disease, heart failure, diabetes mellitus, myocardial ischemia on electrocardiogram, heart rate, anemia, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and maximal cardiac troponin concentration had good discrimination (AUC: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.73-0.79) for the primary outcome and was well calibrated. Discrimination was similar in the consecutive patient (AUC: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.77-0.88) and multicenter (AUC: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.64-0.83) cohorts. T2-risk provided improved discrimination over the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events 2.0 risk score in all cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The T2-risk score performed well in different health care settings and could help clinicians to prognosticate, as well as target investigation and preventative therapies more effectively. (High-Sensitivity Troponin in the Evaluation of Patients With Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome [High-STEACS]; NCT01852123).

Distinguishing Type 1 from Type 2 Myocardial Infarction by Using CT Coronary Angiography.

Purpose: To determine whether quantitative plaque characterization by using CT coronary angiography (CTCA) can discriminate between type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction. Materials and Methods: This was a secondary analysis of two prospective studies (ClinicalTrials.gov registration nos. NCT03338504 [2014-2019] and NCT02284191 [2018-2020]) that performed blinded quantitative plaque analysis on findings from CTCA in participants with type 1 myocardial infarction, type 2 myocardial infarction, and chest pain without myocardial infarction. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of type 1 myocardial infarction. Results: Overall, 155 participants (mean age, 64 years ± 12 [SD]; 114 men) and 36 participants (mean age, 67 years ± 12; 19 men) had type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction, respectively, and 136 participants (62 years ± 12; 78 men) had chest pain without myocardial infarction. Participants with type 1 myocardial infarction had greater total (median, 44% [IQR: 35%-50%] vs 35% [IQR: 29%-46%]), noncalcified (39% [IQR: 31%-46%] vs 34% [IQR: 29%-40%]), and low-attenuation (4.15% [IQR: 1.88%-5.79%] vs 1.64% [IQR: 0.89%-2.28%]) plaque burdens (P < .05 for all) than those with type 2. Participants with type 2 myocardial infarction had similar low-attenuation plaque burden to those with chest pain without myocardial infarction (P = .4). Low-attenuation plaque was an independent predictor of type 1 myocardial infarction (adjusted odds ratio, 3.44 [95% CI: 1.84, 6.96]; P < .001), with better discrimination than noncalcified plaque burden and maximal area of coronary stenosis (C statistic, 0.75 [95% CI: 0.67, 0.83] vs 0.62 [95% CI: 0.53, 0.71] and 0.61 [95% CI: 0.51, 0.70] respectively; P ≤ .001 for both). Conclusion: Higher low-attenuation coronary plaque burden in patients with type 1 myocardial infarction may help distinguish these patients from those with type 2 myocardial infarction.Keywords: Ischemia/Infarction, CT Angiography, Quantitative CTClinical trial registration nos. NCT03338504 and NCT02284191 Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2022.

Influence of Age on the Diagnosis of Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: The 99th centile of cardiac troponin, derived from a healthy reference population, is recommended as the diagnostic threshold for myocardial infarction, but troponin concentrations are strongly influenced by age. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic performance of cardiac troponin in older patients presenting with suspected myocardial infarction. METHODS: In a secondary analysis of a multicenter trial of consecutive patients with suspected myocardial infarction, we assessed the diagnostic accuracy of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I at presentation for the diagnosis of type 1, type 2, or type 4b myocardial infarction across 3 age groups (<50, 50-74, and ≥75 years) using guideline-recommended sex-specific and age-adjusted 99th centile thresholds. RESULTS: In 46 435 consecutive patients aged 18 to 108 years (mean, 61±17 years), 5216 (11%) had a diagnosis of myocardial infarction. In patients <50 (n=12 379), 50 to 74 (n=22 380), and ≥75 (n=11 676) years, the sensitivity of the guideline-recommended threshold was similar at 79.2% (95% CI, 75.5-82.9), 80.6% (95% CI, 79.2-82.1), and 81.6% (95% CI, 79.8-83.2), respectively. The specificity decreased with advancing age from 98.3% (95% CI, 98.1-98.5) to 95.5% (95% CI, 95.2-95.8), and 82.6% (95% CI, 81.9-83.4). The use of age-adjusted 99th centile thresholds improved the specificity (91.3% [90.8%-91.9%] versus 82.6% [95% CI, 81.9%-83.4%]) and positive predictive value (59.3% [57.0%-61.5%] versus 51.5% [49.9%-53.3%]) for myocardial infarction in patients ≥75 years but failed to prevent the decrease in either parameter with increasing age and resulted in a marked reduction in sensitivity compared with the use of the guideline-recommended threshold (55.9% [53.6%-57.9%] versus 81.6% [79.8%-83.3%]. CONCLUSIONS: Age alters the diagnostic performance of cardiac troponin, with reduced specificity and positive predictive value in older patients when applying the guideline-recommended or age-adjusted 99th centiles. Individualized diagnostic approaches rather than the adjustment of binary thresholds are needed in an aging population.

Assessment of Oxygen Supply-Demand Imbalance and Outcomes Among Patients With Type 2 Myocardial Infarction: A Secondary Analysis of the High-STEACS Cluster Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Type 2 myocardial infarction occurs owing to multiple factors associated with myocardial oxygen supply-demand imbalance, which may confer different risks of adverse outcomes. Objective: To evaluate the prevalence and outcomes of different factors associated with oxygen supply-demand imbalance among patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this secondary analysis of a stepped-wedge, cluster randomized clinical trial conducted at 10 secondary and tertiary care hospitals in Scotland, 6096 patients with an adjudicated diagnosis of type 1 or type 2 myocardial infarction from June 10, 2013, to March 3, 2016, were identified, and the findings were reported on August 28, 2018. The trial enrolled consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. The diagnosis of myocardial infarction was adjudicated according to the Fourth Universal Definition of Myocardial Infarction and the primary factor associated with oxygen supply-demand imbalance in type 2 myocardial infarction was defined. This secondary analysis was not prespecified. Statistical analysis was performed from July 7 to 30, 2020. Intervention: Implementation of a high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I assay. Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause death at 1 year according to the factors associated with oxygen supply-demand imbalance among patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. Results: Of 6096 patients (2602 women [43%]; median age, 70 years [IQR, 58-80 years]), 4981 patients had type 1 myocardial infarction, and 1115 patients had type 2 myocardial infarction. The most common factor associated with oxygen supply-demand imbalance was tachyarrhythmia (616 of 1115 [55%]), followed by hypoxemia (219 of 1115 [20%]), anemia (95 of 1115 [9%]), hypotension (89 of 1115 [8%]), severe hypertension (61 of 1115 [5%]), and coronary mechanisms (35 of 1115 [3%]). At 1 year, all-cause mortality occurred for 15% of patients (720 of 4981) with type 1 myocardial infarction and 23% of patients (285 of 1115) with type 2 myocardial infarction. Compared with patients with type 1 myocardial infarction, those with type 2 myocardial infarction owing to hypoxemia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.35; 95% CI, 1.72-3.18) and anemia (aOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.14-2.88) were at greatest risk of death, whereas those with type 2 myocardial infarction owing to tachyarrhythmia (aOR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.65-1.06) or coronary mechanisms (aOR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.17-3.86) were at similar risk of death as patients with type 1 myocardial infarction. Conclusions and Relevance: In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial, mortality after type 2 myocardial infarction was associated with the underlying etiologic factor associated with oxygen supply-demand imbalance. Most type 2 myocardial infarctions were associated with tachyarrhythmia, with better prognosis, whereas hypoxemia and anemia accounted for one-third of cases, with double the mortality of type 1 myocardial infarction. These differential outcomes should be considered by clinicians when determining which cases need to be managed if patient outcomes are to improve. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01852123.

A multisystem, cardio-renal investigation of post-COVID-19 illness.

The pathophysiology and trajectory of post-Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) syndrome is uncertain. To clarify multisystem involvement, we undertook a prospective cohort study including patients who had been hospitalized with COVID-19 (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT04403607 ). Serial blood biomarkers, digital electrocardiography and patient-reported outcome measures were obtained in-hospital and at 28-60 days post-discharge when multisystem imaging using chest computed tomography with pulmonary and coronary angiography and cardio-renal magnetic resonance imaging was also obtained. Longer-term clinical outcomes were assessed using electronic health records. Compared to controls (n = 29), at 28-60 days post-discharge, people with COVID-19 (n = 159; mean age, 55 years; 43% female) had persisting evidence of cardio-renal involvement and hemostasis pathway activation. The adjudicated likelihood of myocarditis was 'very likely' in 21 (13%) patients, 'probable' in 65 (41%) patients, 'unlikely' in 56 (35%) patients and 'not present' in 17 (11%) patients. At 28-60 days post-discharge, COVID-19 was associated with worse health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L score 0.77 (0.23) versus 0.87 (0.20)), anxiety and depression (PHQ-4 total score 3.59 (3.71) versus 1.28 (2.67)) and aerobic exercise capacity reflected by predicted maximal oxygen utilization (20.0 (7.6) versus 29.5 (8.0) ml/kg/min) (all P < 0.01). During follow-up (mean, 450 days), 24 (15%) patients and two (7%) controls died or were rehospitalized, and 108 (68%) patients and seven (26%) controls received outpatient secondary care (P = 0.017). The illness trajectory of patients after hospitalization with COVID-19 includes persisting multisystem abnormalities and health impairments that could lead to substantial demand on healthcare services in the future.

Validation of the myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index machine learning algorithm to guide the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in a heterogenous population: a prespecified exploratory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic pathways for myocardial infarction rely on fixed troponin thresholds, which do not recognise that troponin varies by age, sex, and time within individuals. To overcome this limitation, we recently introduced a machine learning algorithm that predicts the likelihood of myocardial infarction. Our aim was to evaluate whether this algorithm performs well in routine clinical practice and predicts subsequent events. METHODS: The myocardial-ischaemic-injury-index (MI3) algorithm was validated in a prespecified exploratory analysis using data from a multi-centre randomised trial done in Scotland, UK that included consecutive patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome undergoing serial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurement. Patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction were excluded. MI3 incorporates age, sex, and two troponin measurements to compute a value (0-100) reflecting an individual's likelihood of myocardial infarction during the index visit and estimates diagnostic performance metrics (including area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve, and the sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value, and positive predictive value) at the computed score. Model performance for an index diagnosis of myocardial infarction (type 1 or type 4b), and for subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death at 1 year was determined using the previously defined low-probability threshold (1·6) and high-probability MI3 threshold (49·7). The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01852123. FINDINGS: In total, 20 761 patients (64 years [SD 16], 9597 [46%] women) enrolled between June 10, 2013, and March 3, 2016, were included from the High-STEACS trial cohort, of whom 3272 (15·8%) had myocardial infarction. MI3 had an area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0·949 (95% CI 0·946-0·952) identifying 12 983 (62·5%) patients as low-probability for myocardial infarction at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score <1·6; sensitivity 99·3% [95% CI 99·0-99·6], negative predictive value 99·8% [99·8-99·9]), and 2961 (14·3%) as high-probability at the pre-specified threshold (MI3 score ≥49·7; specificity 95·0% [94·6-95·3], positive predictive value 70·4% [68·7-72·0]). At 1 year, subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death occurred more often in high-probability patients than low-probability patients (520 [17·6%] of 2961 vs 197 [1·5%] of 12 983], p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: In consecutive patients undergoing serial cardiac troponin measurement for suspected acute coronary syndrome, the MI3 algorithm accurately estimated the likelihood of myocardial infarction and predicted subsequent adverse cardiovascular events. By providing individual probabilities the MI3 algorithm could improve the diagnosis and assessment of risk in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. FUNDING: Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, and NHSX.

Coronary Artery and Cardiac Disease in Patients With Type 2 Myocardial Infarction: A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 myocardial infarction is caused by myocardial oxygen supply-demand imbalance, and its diagnosis is increasingly common with the advent of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin assays. Although this diagnosis is associated with poor outcomes, widespread uncertainty and confusion remain among clinicians as to how to investigate and manage this heterogeneous group of patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, 8064 consecutive patients with increased cardiac troponin concentrations were screened to identify patients with type 2 myocardial infarction. We excluded patients with frailty or renal or hepatic failure. All study participants underwent coronary (invasive or computed tomography angiography) and cardiac (magnetic resonance or echocardiography) imaging, and the underlying causes of infarction were independently adjudicated. The primary outcome was the prevalence of coronary artery disease. RESULTS: In 100 patients with a provisional diagnosis of type 2 myocardial infarction (median age, 65 years [interquartile range, 55-74 years]; 43% women), coronary and cardiac imaging reclassified the diagnosis in 7 patients: type 1 or 4b myocardial infarction in 5 and acute myocardial injury in 2 patients. In those with type 2 myocardial infarction, median cardiac troponin I concentrations were 195 ng/L (interquartile range, 62-760 ng/L) at presentation and 1165 ng/L (interquartile range, 277-3782 ng/L) on repeat testing. The prevalence of coronary artery disease was 68% (63 of 93), which was obstructive in 30% (28 of 93). Infarct-pattern late gadolinium enhancement or regional wall motion abnormalities were observed in 42% (39 of 93), and left ventricular systolic dysfunction was seen in 34% (32 of 93). Only 10 patients had both normal coronary and normal cardiac imaging. Coronary artery disease and left ventricular systolic dysfunction were previously unrecognized in 60% (38 of 63) and 84% (27 of 32), respectively, with only 33% (21 of 63) and 19% (6 of 32) on evidence-based treatments. CONCLUSIONS: Systematic coronary and cardiac imaging of patients with type 2 myocardial infarction identified coronary artery disease in two-thirds and left ventricular systolic dysfunction in one-third of patients. Unrecognized and untreated coronary or cardiac disease is seen in most patients with type 2 myocardial infarction, presenting opportunities for initiation of evidence-based treatments with major potential to improve clinical outcomes. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT03338504.