Measuring and shaping the nutritional environment via food sales logs: case studies of campus-wide food choice and a call to action.

Although diets influence health and the environment, measuring and changing nutrition is challenging. Traditional measurement methods face challenges, and designing and conducting behavior-changing interventions is conceptually and logistically complicated. Situated local communities such as university campuses offer unique opportunities to shape the nutritional environment and promote health and sustainability. The present study investigates how passively sensed food purchase logs typically collected as part of regular business operations can be used to monitor and measure on-campus food consumption and understand food choice determinants. First, based on 38 million sales logs collected on a large university campus over eight years, we perform statistical analyses to quantify spatio-temporal determinants of food choice and characterize harmful patterns in dietary behaviors, in a case study of food purchasing at EPFL campus. We identify spatial proximity, food item pairing, and academic schedules (yearly and daily) as important determinants driving the on-campus food choice. The case studies demonstrate the potential of food sales logs for measuring nutrition and highlight the breadth and depth of future possibilities to study individual food-choice determinants. We describe how these insights provide an opportunity for stakeholders, such as campus offices responsible for managing food services, to shape the nutritional environment and improve health and sustainability by designing policies and behavioral interventions. Finally, based on the insights derived through the case study of food purchases at EPFL campus, we identify five future opportunities and offer a call to action for the nutrition research community to contribute to ensuring the health and sustainability of on-campus populations-the very communities to which many researchers belong.

Disparate impacts on online information access during the Covid-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has stimulated important changes in online information access as digital engagement became necessary to meet the demand for health, economic, and educational resources. Our analysis of 55 billion everyday web search interactions during the pandemic across 25,150 US ZIP codes reveals that the extent to which different communities of internet users enlist digital resources varies based on socioeconomic and environmental factors. For example, we find that ZIP codes with lower income intensified their access to health information to a smaller extent than ZIP codes with higher income. We show that ZIP codes with higher proportions of Black or Hispanic residents intensified their access to unemployment resources to a greater extent, while revealing patterns of unemployment site visits unseen by the claims data. Such differences frame important questions on the relationship between differential information search behaviors and the downstream real-world implications on more and less advantaged populations.

Population-scale dietary interests during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has altered people's lives around the world. Here we document population-wide shifts in dietary interests in 18 countries in 2020, as revealed through time series of Google search volumes. We find that during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic there was an overall surge in food interest, larger and longer-lasting than the surge during typical end-of-year holidays in Western countries. The shock of decreased mobility manifested as a drastic increase in interest in consuming food at home and a corresponding decrease in consuming food outside of home. The largest (up to threefold) increases occurred for calorie-dense carbohydrate-based foods such as pastries, bakery products, bread, and pies. The observed shifts in dietary interests have the potential to globally affect food consumption and health outcomes. These findings can inform governmental and organizational decisions regarding measures to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on diet and nutrition.

Population-scale hand tremor analysis via anonymized mouse cursor signals.

Tremors are a common movement disorder with a spectrum of benign and pathological causes, including neurodegenerative disease, alcohol withdrawal, and physical overexertion. Studies of tremors in clinical practice are limited in size and scope and depend on explicit tracking of tremor characteristics by clinicians. Data drawn from small numbers of patients observed in short-duration sessions pose challenges for understanding the nature and distribution of tremors over a large population. Methods are presented to estimate hand tremors based on anonymized computer mouse cursor movement data collected from millions of users of a web search engine. To determine the feasibility of using this signal for the estimation of the prevalence of tremors over a large population, the characteristics of tremor-like movements are computed and compared against user data that can be interpreted as self-reports, the findings of published clinical studies, and a target selection study where participants self-report hand tremors and known causes. The results demonstrate significant alignment between estimated tremors and both self-reports and clinical findings. Those with cursor tremor events are more likely to report tremor-related search interests. Variations in cursor tremor quantity and cursor tremor frequency with demographics mirror those from clinical studies. Distributions of cursor tremor frequencies vary as expected for different medical conditions. Overall, the study finds evidence for the validity of harnessing anonymized mouse cursor motion as a population-scale tremor sensor for epidemiologic studies. Feasible future applications include opt-in services for screening and for monitoring the progression of illness.

Psychomotor function measured via online activity predicts motor vehicle fatality risk.

Impaired psychomotor performance severely increases the risk of fatal and non-fatal car accidents. However, we currently lack methods to continuously and non-intrusively monitor psychomotor performance. We show we can estimate psychomotor function at population scale from 16 billion observations of typing speeds during the input of web search queries. We show that these estimates exhibit diurnal variation with a substantial increase during typical sleep times, matching published accident risk rates. Further, we show that psychomotor impairment, as measured by keystroke timing, predicts motor vehicle fatality risk on a population level (Spearman ρ = 0.61; p « 10-10). The methods and results highlight a promising direction of harnessing ambient streams of data, such as patterns of interactions with devices, as large-scale sensors to continuously and non-intrusively monitor human psychomotor performance at population scale.

Detecting neurodegenerative disorders from web search signals.

Neurodegenerative disorders, such as Parkinson's disease (PD) and Alzheimer's disease (AD), are important public health problems warranting early detection. We trained machine-learned classifiers on the longitudinal search logs of 31,321,773 search engine users to automatically detect neurodegenerative disorders. Several digital phenotypes with high discriminatory weights for detecting these disorders are identified. Classifier sensitivities for PD detection are 94.2/83.1/42.0/34.6% at false positive rates (FPRs) of 20/10/1/0.1%, respectively. Preliminary analysis shows similar performance for AD detection. Subject to further refinement of accuracy and reproducibility, these findings show the promise of web search digital phenotypes as adjunctive screening tools for neurodegenerative disorders.

Toward multimodal signal detection of adverse drug reactions.

OBJECTIVE: Improving mechanisms to detect adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is key to strengthening post-marketing drug safety surveillance. Signal detection is presently unimodal, relying on a single information source. Multimodal signal detection is based on jointly analyzing multiple information sources. Building on, and expanding the work done in prior studies, the aim of the article is to further research on multimodal signal detection, explore its potential benefits, and propose methods for its construction and evaluation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Four data sources are investigated; FDA's adverse event reporting system, insurance claims, the MEDLINE citation database, and the logs of major Web search engines. Published methods are used to generate and combine signals from each data source. Two distinct reference benchmarks corresponding to well-established and recently labeled ADRs respectively are used to evaluate the performance of multimodal signal detection in terms of area under the ROC curve (AUC) and lead-time-to-detection, with the latter relative to labeling revision dates. RESULTS: Limited to our reference benchmarks, multimodal signal detection provides AUC improvements ranging from 0.04 to 0.09 based on a widely used evaluation benchmark, and a comparative added lead-time of 7-22 months relative to labeling revision dates from a time-indexed benchmark. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the notion that utilizing and jointly analyzing multiple data sources may lead to improved signal detection. Given certain data and benchmark limitations, the early stage of development, and the complexity of ADRs, it is currently not possible to make definitive statements about the ultimate utility of the concept. Continued development of multimodal signal detection requires a deeper understanding the data sources used, additional benchmarks, and further research on methods to generate and synthesize signals.

Evaluation of the Feasibility of Screening Patients for Early Signs of Lung Carcinoma in Web Search Logs.

IMPORTANCE: A statistical model that predicts the appearance of strong evidence of a lung carcinoma diagnosis via analysis of large-scale anonymized logs of web search queries from millions of people across the United States. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the feasibility of screening patients at risk of lung carcinoma via analysis of signals from online search activity. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We identified people who issue special queries that provide strong evidence of a recent diagnosis of lung carcinoma. We then considered patterns of symptoms expressed as searches about concerning symptoms over several months prior to the appearance of the landmark web queries. We built statistical classifiers that predict the future appearance of landmark queries based on the search log signals. This was a retrospective log analysis of the online activity of millions of web searchers seeking health-related information online. Of web searchers who queried for symptoms related to lung carcinoma, some (n = 5443 of 4 813 985) later issued queries that provide strong evidence of recent clinical diagnosis of lung carcinoma and are regarded as positive cases in our analysis. Additional evidence on the reliability of these queries as representing clinical diagnoses is based on the significant increase in follow-on searches for treatments and medications for these searchers and on the correlation between lung carcinoma incidence rates and our log-based statistics. The remaining symptom searchers (n = 4 808 542) are regarded as negative cases. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Performance of the statistical model for early detection from online search behavior, for different lead times, different sets of signals, and different cohorts of searchers stratified by potential risk. RESULTS: The statistical classifier predicting the future appearance of landmark web queries based on search log signals identified searchers who later input queries consistent with a lung carcinoma diagnosis, with a true-positive rate ranging from 3% to 57% for false-positive rates ranging from 0.00001 to 0.001, respectively. The methods can be used to identify people at highest risk up to a year in advance of the inferred diagnosis time. The 5 factors associated with the highest relative risk (RR) were evidence of family history (RR = 7.548; 95% CI, 3.937-14.470), age (RR = 3.558; 95% CI, 3.357-3.772), radon (RR = 2.529; 95% CI, 1.137-5.624), primary location (RR = 2.463; 95% CI, 1.364-4.446), and occupation (RR = 1.969; 95% CI, 1.143-3.391). Evidence of smoking (RR = 1.646; 95% CI, 1.032-2.260) was important but not top-ranked, which was due to the difficulty of identifying smoking history from search terms. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Pattern recognition based on data drawn from large-scale web search queries holds opportunity for identifying risk factors and frames new directions with early detection of lung carcinoma.

Influence of Pokémon Go on Physical Activity: Study and Implications.

BACKGROUND: Physical activity helps people maintain a healthy weight and reduces the risk for several chronic diseases. Although this knowledge is widely recognized, adults and children in many countries around the world do not get recommended amounts of physical activity. Although many interventions are found to be ineffective at increasing physical activity or reaching inactive populations, there have been anecdotal reports of increased physical activity due to novel mobile games that embed game play in the physical world. The most recent and salient example of such a game is Pokémon Go, which has reportedly reached tens of millions of users in the United States and worldwide. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of Pokémon Go on physical activity. METHODS: We study the effect of Pokémon Go on physical activity through a combination of signals from large-scale corpora of wearable sensor data and search engine logs for 32,000 Microsoft Band users over a period of 3 months. Pokémon Go players are identified through search engine queries and physical activity is measured through accelerometers. RESULTS: We find that Pokémon Go leads to significant increases in physical activity over a period of 30 days, with particularly engaged users (ie, those making multiple search queries for details about game usage) increasing their activity by 1473 steps a day on average, a more than 25% increase compared with their prior activity level (P<.001). In the short time span of the study, we estimate that Pokémon Go has added a total of 144 billion steps to US physical activity. Furthermore, Pokémon Go has been able to increase physical activity across men and women of all ages, weight status, and prior activity levels showing this form of game leads to increases in physical activity with significant implications for public health. In particular, we find that Pokémon Go is able to reach low activity populations, whereas all 4 leading mobile health apps studied in this work largely draw from an already very active population. CONCLUSIONS: Mobile apps combining game play with physical activity lead to substantial short-term activity increases and, in contrast to many existing interventions and mobile health apps, have the potential to reach activity-poor populations. Future studies are needed to investigate potential long-term effects of these applications.

Screening for Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Using Signals From Web Search Logs: Feasibility Study and Results.

INTRODUCTION: People's online activities can yield clues about their emerging health conditions. We performed an intensive study to explore the feasibility of using anonymized Web query logs to screen for the emergence of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The methods used statistical analyses of large-scale anonymized search logs considering the symptom queries from millions of people, with the potential application of warning individual searchers about the value of seeking attention from health care professionals. METHODS: We identified searchers in logs of online search activity who issued special queries that are suggestive of a recent diagnosis of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. We then went back many months before these landmark queries were made, to examine patterns of symptoms, which were expressed as searches about concerning symptoms. We built statistical classifiers that predicted the future appearance of the landmark queries based on patterns of signals seen in search logs. RESULTS: We found that signals about patterns of queries in search logs can predict the future appearance of queries that are highly suggestive of a diagnosis of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. We showed specifically that we can identify 5% to 15% of cases, while preserving extremely low false-positive rates (0.00001 to 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Signals in search logs show the possibilities of predicting a forthcoming diagnosis of pancreatic adenocarcinoma from combinations of subtle temporal signals revealed in the queries of searchers.

Early identification of adverse drug reactions from search log data.

The timely and accurate identification of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) following drug approval is a persistent and serious public health challenge. Aggregated data drawn from anonymized logs of Web searchers has been shown to be a useful source of evidence for detecting ADRs. However, prior studies have been based on the analysis of established ADRs, the existence of which may already be known publically. Awareness of these ADRs can inject existing knowledge about the known ADRs into online content and online behavior, and thus raise questions about the ability of the behavioral log-based methods to detect new ADRs. In contrast to previous studies, we investigate the use of search logs for the early detection of known ADRs. We use a large set of recently labeled ADRs and negative controls to evaluate the ability of search logs to accurately detect ADRs in advance of their publication. We leverage the Internet Archive to estimate when evidence of an ADR first appeared in the public domain and adjust the index date in a backdated analysis. Our results demonstrate how search logs can be used to detect new ADRs, the central challenge in pharmacovigilance.

Seeking insights about cycling mood disorders via anonymized search logs.

BACKGROUND: Mood disorders affect a significant portion of the general population. Cycling mood disorders are characterized by intermittent episodes (or events) of the disease. OBJECTIVE: Using anonymized Web search logs, we identify a population of people with significant interest in mood stabilizing drugs (MSD) and seek evidence of mood swings in this population. METHODS: We extracted queries to the Microsoft Bing search engine made by 20,046 Web searchers over six months, separately explored searcher demographics using data from a large external panel of users, and sought supporting information from people with mood disorders via a survey. We analyzed changes in information needs over time relative to searches on MSD. RESULTS: Queries for MSD focused on side effects and their relation to the disease. We found evidence of significant changes in search behavior and interests coinciding with days that MSD queries are made. These include large increases (>100%) in the access of nutrition information, commercial information, and adult materials. A survey of patients diagnosed with mood disorders provided evidence that repeated queries on MSD may come with exacerbations of mood disorder. A classifier predicting the occurrence of such queries one day before they are observed obtains strong performance (AUC=0.78). CONCLUSIONS: Observed patterns in search behavior align with known behaviors and those highlighted by survey respondents. These observations suggest that searchers showing intensive interest in MSD may be patients who have been prescribed these drugs. Given behavioral dynamics, we surmise that the days on which MSD queries are made may coincide with commencement of mania or depression. Although we do not have data on mood changes and whether users have been diagnosed with bipolar illness, we see evidence of cycling in people who show interest in MSD and further show that we can predict impending shifts in behavior and interest.

A time-indexed reference standard of adverse drug reactions.

Undetected adverse drug reactions (ADRs) pose a major burden on the health system. Data mining methodologies designed to identify signals of novel ADRs are of deep importance for drug safety surveillance. The development and evaluation of these methodologies requires proper reference benchmarks. While progress has recently been made in developing such benchmarks, our understanding of the performance characteristics of the data mining methodologies is limited because existing benchmarks do not support prospective performance evaluations. We address this shortcoming by providing a reference standard to support prospective performance evaluations. The reference standard was systematically curated from drug labeling revisions, such as new warnings, which were issued and communicated by the US Food and Drug Administration in 2013. The reference standard includes 62 positive test cases and 75 negative controls, and covers 44 drugs and 38 events. We provide usage guidance and empirical support for the reference standard by applying it to analyze two data sources commonly mined for drug safety surveillance.

From health search to healthcare: explorations of intention and utilization via query logs and user surveys.

OBJECTIVE: To better understand the relationship between online health-seeking behaviors and in-world healthcare utilization (HU) by studies of online search and access activities before and after queries that pursue medical professionals and facilities. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data collected from logs of online searches gathered from consenting users of a browser toolbar from Microsoft (N=9740). We employed a complementary survey (N=489) to seek a deeper understanding of information-gathering, reflection, and action on the pursuit of professional healthcare. RESULTS: We provide insights about HU through the survey, breaking out its findings by different respondent marginalizations as appropriate. Observations made from search logs may be explained by trends observed in our survey responses, even though the user populations differ. DISCUSSION: The results provide insights about how users decide if and when to utilize healthcare resources, and how online health information seeking transitions to in-world HU. The findings from both the survey and the logs reveal behavioral patterns and suggest a strong relationship between search behavior and HU. Although the diversity of our survey respondents is limited and we cannot be certain that users visited medical facilities, we demonstrate that it may be possible to infer HU from long-term search behavior by the apparent influence that health concerns and professional advice have on search activity. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight different phases of online activities around queries pursuing professional healthcare facilities and services. We also show that it may be possible to infer HU from logs without tracking people's physical location, based on the effect of HU on pre- and post-HU search behavior. This allows search providers and others to develop more robust models of interests and preferences by modeling utilization rather than simply the intention to utilize that is expressed in search queries.

Web-scale pharmacovigilance: listening to signals from the crowd.

Adverse drug events cause substantial morbidity and mortality and are often discovered after a drug comes to market. We hypothesized that Internet users may provide early clues about adverse drug events via their online information-seeking. We conducted a large-scale study of Web search log data gathered during 2010. We pay particular attention to the specific drug pairing of paroxetine and pravastatin, whose interaction was reported to cause hyperglycemia after the time period of the online logs used in the analysis. We also examine sets of drug pairs known to be associated with hyperglycemia and those not associated with hyperglycemia. We find that anonymized signals on drug interactions can be mined from search logs. Compared to analyses of other sources such as electronic health records (EHR), logs are inexpensive to collect and mine. The results demonstrate that logs of the search activities of populations of computer users can contribute to drug safety surveillance.

Web to world: predicting transitions from self-diagnosis to the pursuit of local medical assistance in web search.

Many people turn to the Web for self-diagnosis and healthcare assessment based on limited knowledge of signs, symptoms, and disorders. Studies of search and browsing for healthcare information have shown that reviewing Web content can lead to escalations from concerns about common, typically benign symptoms to searches on rare and frightening disorders. We explore the potential for the Web to induce costly and potentially unnecessary engagements with health professionals. We present findings on the transition of search on common symptoms to the pursuit of in-world healthcare resources such as nearby physicians and healthcare facilities. We build models that predict the transition from searches on initial common symptoms to queries pursuing local medical expertise, using evidence about a user's stream of queries, the content on reviewed pages, and long-term medical search behaviors. Our findings have implications for reducing costly and unnecessary healthcare resource utilization through refinements of ranking algorithms and search interfaces.

Experiences with web search on medical concerns and self diagnosis.

The wealth of medical information on the Web makes it convenient for non-experts to conduct their own diagnosis and healthcare assessment based on limited knowledge of signs, symptoms, and disorders. We present the findings of a survey aimed at exploring laypeoples' activities and experiences with using Web search to pursue explanations for symptoms. Survey findings suggest that the Web may influence anxiety levels and behaviors of those searching for information on undiagnosed conditions. A better understanding of consumer experience regarding the use of the Web to interpret symptoms can assist in the refinement of healthcare content and retrieval.