Early diagnostic indicators of dengue versus other febrile illnesses in Asia and Latin America (IDAMS study): a multicentre, prospective, observational study.

BACKGROUND: Improvements in the early diagnosis of dengue are urgently needed, especially in resource-limited settings where the distinction between dengue and other febrile illnesses is crucial for patient management. METHODS: In this prospective, observational study (IDAMS), we included patients aged 5 years and older with undifferentiated fever at presentation from 26 outpatient facilities in eight countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, Cambodia, El Salvador, Indonesia, Malaysia, Venezuela, and Viet Nam). We used multivariable logistic regression to investigate the association between clinical symptoms and laboratory tests with dengue versus other febrile illnesses between day 2 and day 5 after onset of fever (ie, illness days). We built a set of candidate regression models including clinical and laboratory variables to reflect the need of a comprehensive versus parsimonious approach. We assessed performance of these models via standard measures of diagnostic values. FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2011, and Aug 4, 2016, we recruited 7428 patients, of whom 2694 (36%) were diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed dengue and 2495 (34%) with (non-dengue) other febrile illnesses and met inclusion criteria, and were included in the analysis. 2703 (52%) of 5189 included patients were younger than 15 years, 2486 (48%) were aged 15 years or older, 2179 (42%) were female and 3010 (58%) were male. Platelet count, white blood cell count, and the change in these variables from the previous day of illness had a strong association with dengue. Cough and rhinitis had strong associations with other febrile illnesses, whereas bleeding, anorexia, and skin flush were generally associated with dengue. Model performance increased between day 2 and 5 of illness. The comprehensive model (18 clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·87 and specificities of 0·80 to 0·91, whereas the parsimonious model (eight clinical and laboratory predictors) had sensitivities of 0·80 to 0·88 and specificities of 0·81 to 0·89. A model that includes laboratory markers that are easy to measure (eg, platelet count or white blood cell count) outperformed the models based on clinical variables only. INTERPRETATION: Our results confirm the important role of platelet and white blood cell counts in diagnosing dengue, and the importance of serial measurements over subsequent days. We successfully quantified the performance of clinical and laboratory markers covering the early period of dengue. Resulting algorithms performed better than published schemes for distinction of dengue from other febrile illnesses, and take into account the dynamic changes over time. Our results provide crucial information needed for the update of guidelines, including the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness handbook. FUNDING: EU's Seventh Framework Programme. TRANSLATIONS: For the Bangla, Bahasa Indonesia, Portuguese, Khmer, Spanish and Vietnamese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Combination of inflammatory and vascular markers in the febrile phase of dengue is associated with more severe outcomes.

Background: Early identification of severe dengue patients is important regarding patient management and resource allocation. We investigated the association of 10 biomarkers (VCAM-1, SDC-1, Ang-2, IL-8, IP-10, IL-1RA, sCD163, sTREM-1, ferritin, CRP) with the development of severe/moderate dengue (S/MD). Methods: We performed a nested case-control study from a multi-country study. A total of 281 S/MD and 556 uncomplicated dengue cases were included. Results: On days 1-3 from symptom onset, higher levels of any biomarker increased the risk of developing S/MD. When assessing together, SDC-1 and IL-1RA were stable, while IP-10 changed the association from positive to negative; others showed weaker associations. The best combinations associated with S/MD comprised IL-1RA, Ang-2, IL-8, ferritin, IP-10, and SDC-1 for children, and SDC-1, IL-8, ferritin, sTREM-1, IL-1RA, IP-10, and sCD163 for adults. Conclusions: Our findings assist the development of biomarker panels for clinical use and could improve triage and risk prediction in dengue patients. Funding: This study was supported by the EU's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-281803 IDAMS), the WHO, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Using NS1 Flavivirus Protein Microarray to Infer Past Infecting Dengue Virus Serotype and Number of Past Dengue Virus Infections in Vietnamese Individuals.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, researchers have had an increased focus on multiplex microarray assays, in which antibodies are measured against multiple related antigens, for use in seroepidemiological studies to infer past transmission. METHODS: We assess the performance of a flavivirus microarray assay for determining past dengue virus (DENV) infection history in a dengue-endemic setting, Vietnam. We tested the microarray on samples from 1 and 6 months postinfection from DENV-infected patients (infecting serotype was determined using reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction during acute, past primary, and secondary infection assessed using plaque reduction neutralization tests 6 months postinfection). RESULTS: Binomial models developed to discriminate past primary from secondary infection using the protein microarray (PMA) titers had high area under the curve (0.90-0.97) and accuracy (0.84-0.86). Multinomial models developed to identify most recent past infecting serotype using PMA titers performed well in those with past primary infection (average test set: κ = 0.85, accuracy of 0.92) but not those with past secondary infection (κ = 0.24, accuracy of 0.45). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that the microarray will be useful in seroepidemiological studies aimed at classifying the past infection history of individuals (past primary vs secondary and serotype of past primary infections) and thus inferring past transmission intensity of DENV in dengue-endemic settings. Future work to validate these models should be undertaken in different transmission settings and with samples later after infection.

Higher Plasma Viremia in the Febrile Phase Is Associated With Adverse Dengue Outcomes Irrespective of Infecting Serotype or Host Immune Status: An Analysis of 5642 Vietnamese Cases.

BACKGROUND: One of the generally accepted constructs of dengue pathogenesis is that clinical disease severity is at least partially dependent upon plasma viremia, yet data on plasma viremia in primary versus secondary infections and in relation to clinically relevant endpoints remain limited and contradictory. METHODS: Using a large database comprising detailed clinical and laboratory characterization of Vietnamese participants enrolled in a series of research studies executed over a 15-year period, we explored relationships between plasma viremia measured by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction and 3 clinically relevant endpoints-severe dengue, plasma leakage, and hospitalization-in the dengue-confirmed cases. All 4 dengue serotypes and both primary and secondary infections were well represented. In our logistic regression models we allowed for a nonlinear effect of viremia and for associations between viremia and outcome to differ by age, serotype, host immune status, and illness day at study enrollment. RESULTS: Among 5642 dengue-confirmed cases we identified 259 (4.6%) severe dengue cases, 701 (12.4%) patients with plasma leakage, and 1441 of 4008 (40.0%) patients recruited in outpatient settings who were subsequently hospitalized. From the early febrile phase onwards, higher viremia increased the risk of developing all 3 endpoints, but effect sizes were modest (ORs ranging from 1.12-1.27 per 1-log increase) compared with the effects of a secondary immune response (ORs, 1.67-7.76). The associations were consistent across age, serotype, and immune status groups, and in the various sensitivity and subgroup analyses we undertook. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma viremia is associated with increased dengue severity, regardless of serotype or immune status.

Assessing the vertical transmission potential of dengue virus in field-reared Aedes aegypti using patient-derived blood meals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

BACKGROUND: Dengue viruses (DENV) can be transmitted from an adult female Aedes aegypti mosquito through the germ line to the progeny; however, there is uncertainty if this occurs at a frequency that is epidemiologically significant. We measured vertical transmission of DENV from field-reared Ae. aegypti to their F1 progeny after feeding upon blood from dengue patients. We also examined the transmission potential of F1 females. METHODS: We examined the frequency of vertical transmission in field-reared mosquitoes, who fed upon blood from acutely viremic dengue patients, and the capacity for vertically infected females to subsequently transmit virus horizontally, in two sets of experiments: (i) compared vertical transmission frequency of field-reared Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, in individual progeny; and (ii) in pooled progeny derived from field- and laboratory-reared Ae. aegypti. RESULTS: Of 41 DENV-infected and isofemaled females who laid eggs, only a single female (2.43%) transmitted virus to one of the F1 progeny, but this F1 female did not have detectable virus in the saliva when 14 days-old. We complemented this initial study by testing for vertical transmission in another 460 field-reared females and > 900 laboratory-reared counterparts but failed to provide any further evidence of vertical virus transmission. CONCLUSIONS: In summary, these results using field-reared mosquitoes and viremic blood from dengue cases suggest that vertical transmission is uncommon. Field-based studies that build on these observations are needed to better define the contribution of vertical DENV transmission to dengue epidemiology.

Microvascular Fluid Exchange: Implications of the Revised Starling Model for Resuscitation of Dengue Shock Syndrome.

Dengue is the most common mosquito-borne viral infection in the world. The most feared complication is a poorly understood vasculopathy that occurs in only a small minority of symptomatic individuals, especially children and young adults, but can result in potentially fatal dengue shock syndrome (DSS). Based mainly on expert opinion, WHO management guidelines for DSS recommend prompt infusion of a crystalloid fluid bolus followed by a tapering crystalloid fluid regimen, supplemented if necessary by boluses of synthetic colloid solutions. However, following publication of a number of major trials undertaken in other, primarily adult, critical care scenarios, use of both synthetic colloid solutions and of fluid boluses for volume expansion have become controversial. Synthetic colloids tend to be used for severe DSS cases in order to boost intravascular oncotic pressure, based on the classic Starling hypothesis in which opposing hydrostatic and oncotic forces determine fluid flow across the microvascular barrier. However, the revised Starling model emphasizes the critical contribution of the endothelial glycocalyx layer (EGL), indicating that it is the effective oncotic pressure gradient across the EGL not endothelial cells per se that opposes filtration. Based on several novel concepts that are integral to the revised Starling model, we review the clinical features of DSS and discuss a number of implications that are relevant for fluid management. We also highlight the need for context-specific clinical trials that address crucially important questions around the management of DSS.

Serological inference of past primary and secondary dengue infection: implications for vaccination.

Owing to the finding that Dengvaxia® (the only licensed dengue vaccine to date) increases the risk of severe illness among seronegative recipients, the World Health Organization has recommended screening individuals for their serostatus prior to vaccination. To decide whether and how to carry out screening, it is necessary to estimate the transmission intensity of dengue and to understand the performance of the screening method. In this study, we inferred the annual force of infection (FOI; a measurement of transmission intensity) of dengue virus in three locations in Vietnam: An Giang (FOI = 0.04 for the below 10 years age group and FOI = 0.20 for the above 10 years age group), Ho Chi Minh City (FOI = 0.12) and Quang Ngai (FOI = 0.05). In addition, we show that using a quantitative approach to immunoglobulin G (IgG) levels (measured by indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays) can help to distinguish individuals with primary exposures (primary seropositive) from those with secondary exposures (secondary seropositive). We found that primary-seropositive individuals-the main targets of the vaccine-tend to have a lower IgG level, and, thus, they have a higher chance of being misclassified as seronegative than secondary-seropositive cases. However, screening performance can be improved by incorporating patient age and transmission intensity into the interpretation of IgG levels.

The Estimates of the Health and Economic Burden of Dengue in Vietnam.

Dengue has been estimated to cause a substantial health and economic burden in Vietnam. The most recent studies have estimated that it is responsible for 39884 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) annually, representing an economic burden of US$94.87 million per year (in 2016 prices). However, there are alternative burden estimates that are notably lower. This variation is predominantly due to differences in how the number of symptomatic dengue cases is estimated. Understanding the methodology of these burden calculations is vital when interpreting health economic analyses of dengue. This review aims to provide an overview of the health and economic burden estimates of dengue in Vietnam. We also highlight important research gaps for future studies.

Projected costs associated with school-based screening to inform deployment of Dengvaxia: Vietnam as a case study.

Background: After new analysis, Sanofi Pasteur now recommends their dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) should only be given to individuals previously infected with dengue and the World Health Organization's recommendations regarding its use are currently being revised. As a result, the potential costs of performing large-scale individual dengue screening and/or dengue serosurveys have become an important consideration for decision making by policymakers in dengue-endemic areas. Methods: We used an ingredients-based approach to estimate the financial costs for conducting both a school-based dengue serosurvey and school-based individual dengue screening within a typical province in Vietnam, using an existing commercial indirect immunoglobulin G enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay kit. This costing is hypothetical and based on estimates regarding the resources that would be required to perform such activities. Results: We estimated that performing a school-based individual screening of 9-year-olds would cost US$9.25 per child tested or US$197,827 in total for a typical province. We also estimated that a school-based serosurvey would cost US$10,074, assuming one class from each of the grades that include 8- to 11-year-olds are sampled at each of the 12 selected schools across the province. Conclusions: The study indicates that using this vaccine safely on a large-scale will incur noteworthy operational costs. It is crucial that these be considered in future cost-effectiveness analyses informing how and where the vaccine is deployed.

Effects of short-course oral corticosteroid therapy in early dengue infection in Vietnamese patients: a randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Patients with dengue can experience a variety of serious complications including hypovolemic shock, thrombocytopenia, and bleeding. These problems occur as plasma viremia is resolving and are thought to be immunologically mediated. Early corticosteroid therapy may prevent the development of such complications but could also prolong viral clearance. METHODS: We performed a randomized, placebo-controlled, blinded trial of low-dose (0.5 mg/kg) or high-dose (2 mg/kg) oral prednisolone therapy for 3 days in Vietnamese patients aged 5-20 years admitted with dengue and fever for ≤72 hours, aiming to assess potential harms from steroid use during the viremic phase. Intention-to-treat analysis was performed using linear trend tests with a range of clinical and virological endpoints specified in advance. In addition to recognized complications of dengue, we focused on the are under the curve for serial plasma viremia measurements and the number of days after enrollment to negative viremia and dengue nonstructural protein 1 status. RESULTS: Between August 2009 and January 2011, 225 participants were randomized to 1 of the 3 treatment arms. Baseline characteristics were similar across the groups. All patients recovered fully and adverse events were infrequent. Aside from a trend toward hyperglycemia in the steroid recipients, we found no association between treatment allocation and any of the predefined clinical, hematological, or virological endpoints. CONCLUSIONS: Use of oral prednisolone during the early acute phase of dengue infection was not associated with prolongation of viremia or other adverse effects. Although not powered to assess efficacy, we found no reduction in the development of shock or other recognized complications of dengue virus infection in this study.

Validation of an internally controlled one-step real-time multiplex RT-PCR assay for the detection and quantitation of dengue virus RNA in plasma.

Dengue is mosquito-borne virus infection that annually causes ~50 million clinically apparent cases worldwide. An internally controlled one-step real-time multiplex RT-PCR assay was developed for detection and quantitation of DENV RNA in plasma sample by using specific primers and fluorogenic TaqMan probes. All primers and probes targeted sequences near the 3' end of the NS5 gene. The method comprised two multiplex assays and was validated for sensitivity, specificity, linearity, reproducibility and precision. An internal control template was spiked into each clinical specimen to provide quality assurance for each experimental step. The assay allowed for detection of between 0.5 and 3 infectious particles per mL, is rapid and has been operationally characterized in 287 Vietnamese dengue patients from two therapeutic intervention trials at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.

Kinetics of plasma viremia and soluble nonstructural protein 1 concentrations in dengue: differential effects according to serotype and immune status.

We describe the magnitude and kinetics of plasma viremia and nonstructural protein 1 (sNS1) levels in sequential samples from 167 children with acute dengue, enrolled early in a community study in Vietnam. All children recovered fully, and only 5 required hospitalization. Among those with dengue virus type 1 (DENV-1), plasma viremia was significantly greater in primary (49) than secondary (44) infections and took longer to resolve. In primary DENV-2 and 3 infections, viremia was significantly lower than among primary DENV-1 infections. Concentrations of sNS1 were significantly higher for DENV-1 than for DENV-2 after adjusting for viremia, with marked differences in the kinetic profiles between primary and secondary infections. Secondary infection and higher viremia were independent predictors of more severe thrombocytopenia, and higher viremia was associated with a small increase in hemoconcentration. Our findings identify clear serotype and immune-status related effects on the dynamics of dengue viremia and sNS1 responses, together with associations with important clinical parameters.

Comparison of three fluid solutions for resuscitation in dengue shock syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Dengue shock syndrome is characterized by severe vascular leakage and disordered hemostasis and progresses to death in 1 to 5 percent of cases. Although volume replacement is recognized as the critical therapeutic intervention, World Health Organization management guidelines remain empirical rather than evidence-based. METHODS: We performed a double-blind, randomized comparison of three fluids for initial resuscitation of Vietnamese children with dengue shock syndrome. We randomly assigned 383 children with moderately severe shock to receive Ringer's lactate, 6 percent dextran 70 (a colloid), or 6 percent hydroxyethyl starch (a colloid) and 129 children with severe shock to receive one of the colloids. The primary outcome measure was requirement for rescue colloid at any time after administration of the study fluid. RESULTS: Only one patient died (<0.2 percent mortality). The primary outcome measure--requirement for rescue colloid--was similar for the different fluids in the two severity groups. The relative risk of requirement for rescue colloid was 1.08 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.78 to 1.47; P=0.65) among children with moderate shock who received Ringer's lactate as compared with either of the colloid solutions, 1.13 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.74 to 1.74; P=0.59) among children who received dextran as compared with starch in the group with severe shock, and 0.88 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.66 to 1.17; P=0.38) among children who received dextran as compared with starch in the combined analysis. Although treatment with Ringer's lactate resulted in less rapid improvement in the hematocrit and a marginally longer time to initial recovery than did treatment with either of the colloid solutions, there were no differences in all other measures of treatment response. Only minor differences in efficacy were detected between the two colloids, but significantly more recipients of dextran than of starch had adverse reactions. Bleeding manifestations, coagulation derangements, and severity of fluid overload were similar for all fluid-treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Initial resuscitation with Ringer's lactate is indicated for children with moderately severe dengue shock syndrome. Dextran 70 and 6 percent hydroxyethyl starch perform similarly in children with severe shock, but given the adverse reactions associated with the use of dextran, starch may be preferable for this group.

Size and charge characteristics of the protein leak in dengue shock syndrome.

BACKGROUND: he mechanism underlying the transient vascular leak syndrome of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is unknown. We aimed to determine whether molecular size and charge selectivity, which help restrict plasma proteins within the intravascular space, are altered in patients with DHF and whether a disturbance of the anionic glycosaminoglycan (GAG) layer on the luminal endothelial surface contributes to disease pathogenesis. METHODS: We measured serial plasma levels and fractional clearances of proteins with different size and charge characteristics in 48 children with dengue shock syndrome (DSS) and urinary excretion profiles of heparan sulfate, chondroitin-4-sulfate, and chondroitin-6-sulfate in affected children and healthy control subjects. RESULTS: Compared with convalescent values, acute plasma concentrations of all proteins were reduced, with increased fractional clearances. Smaller proteins were more affected than larger molecules. Albumin, which is normally protected from leakage by its strong negative charge, demonstrated a clearance pattern similar to that of transferrin, a neutral molecule of similar size. Urinary heparan sulfate excretion was significantly increased in children with DSS. CONCLUSIONS: The endothelial size-dependent sieving mechanism for plasma proteins is at least partially retained, whereas selective restriction based on negative charge is impaired. The increased heparan sulfate excretion suggests a role for GAGs in the pathogenesis of the vascular leak.

Coagulation abnormalities in dengue hemorrhagic Fever: serial investigations in 167 Vietnamese children with Dengue shock syndrome.

The pathophysiological basis of hemorrhage in dengue infections remains poorly understood, despite the increasing global importance of these infections. A large prospective study of 167 Vietnamese children with dengue shock syndrome documented only minor prolongations of prothrombin and partial thromboplastin times but moderate to severe depression of plasma fibrinogen concentrations. A detailed study of 48 children revealed low plasma concentrations of the anticoagulant proteins C, S, and antithrombin III, which decreased with increasing severity of shock, probably because of capillary leakage. Concurrent increases in the levels of thrombomodulin, tissue factor, and plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1) indicated increased production of these proteins. Thrombomodulin levels suggestive of endothelial activation correlated with increasing shock severity, whereas PAI-1 levels correlated with bleeding severity. Dengue virus can directly activate plasminogen in vitro. Rather than causing true disseminated intravascular coagulation, dengue infection may activate fibrinolysis primarily, degrading fibrinogen directly and prompting secondary activation of procoagulant homeostatic mechanisms.