Health and economic impacts of Lassa vaccination campaigns in West Africa.

Lassa fever is a zoonotic disease identified by the World Health Organization (WHO) as having pandemic potential. This study estimates the health-economic burden of Lassa fever throughout West Africa and projects impacts of a series of vaccination campaigns. We also model the emergence of "Lassa-X" - a hypothetical pandemic Lassa virus variant - and project impacts of achieving 100 Days Mission vaccination targets. Our model predicted 2.7M (95% uncertainty interval: 2.1M-3.4M) Lassa virus infections annually, resulting over ten years in 2.0M (793.8K-3.9M) disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The most effective vaccination strategy was a population-wide preventive campaign primarily targeting WHO-classified "endemic" districts. Under conservative vaccine efficacy assumptions, this campaign averted $20.1M ($8.2M-$39.0M) in lost DALY value and $128.2M ($67.2M-$231.9M) in societal costs (International dollars 2021). Reactive vaccination in response to local outbreaks averted just one-tenth the health-economic burden of preventive campaigns. In the event of Lassa-X emerging, spreading throughout West Africa and causing approximately 1.2M DALYs within two years, 100 Days Mission vaccination averted 22% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against disease, and 74% of DALYs given a vaccine 70% effective against both infection and disease. These findings suggest how vaccination could alleviate Lassa fever's burden and assist in pandemic preparedness.

HIV-1 infection kinetics, drug resistance, and long-term safety of pre-exposure prophylaxis with emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide (DISCOVER): week 144 open-label extension of a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial.

BACKGROUND: Data characterising the long-term use and safety of emtricitabine plus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate as daily oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) are scarce and there are uncertainties regarding the value of routine HIV-1 RNA testing during oral PrEP follow-up. METHODS: The DISCOVER trial was a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial in which cisgender men and transgender women aged 18 years and older with a high likelihood of acquiring HIV were recruited from 94 clinics in Europe and North America and randomly assigned to receive either emtricitabine plus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (200/25 mg) tablets daily, with matched placebo tablets, or emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide (200/300 mg) tablets daily, with matched placebo tablets, for at least 96 weeks. After completion of the trial, participants were offered enrolment in this 48-week open-label extension study of emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide. In participants diagnosed with HIV during the randomised and open-label phases of the study, we characterised HIV-1 test results and measured HIV-1 RNA viral load retrospectively when available. Adherence based on tenofovir diphosphate concentrations in dried blood spots and genotypic resistance were assessed in participants diagnosed with HIV. Safety assessments included adverse events, laboratory parameters, and, in a subset of participants, bone mineral density. HIV-1 incidence in participants initially randomly assigned to receive emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide was estimated using a Poisson distribution. Changes from baseline in safety endpoints were described in participants assigned to received emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide and in those who switched from emtricitabine plus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate during the open-label phase. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02842086, and is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between Sept 13, 2016, and June 30, 2017, 5399 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned in DISCOVER. 2699 were assigned to receive emtricitabine plus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and 2700 were assigned to receive emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide, of whom 2693 and 2694, respectively, received at least one dose of study drug. 2115 (79%) assigned to emtricitabine plus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate switched to emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide in the open-label phase, and 2070 (77%) continued with emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide in the open-label phase. As of data cutoff (Dec 10, 2020), after 15 817 person-years of follow-up, 27 new HIV-1 diagnoses were observed across the total study period, with three occurring during the open-label phase. In participants who were initially assigned to emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide, the incidence was 0·13 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0·061-0·23; ten of 2670). Stored plasma samples were available for 23 of 27 participants, including 22 with incident infection. In four (17%) of 23 participants, retrospective testing detected HIV-1 RNA before serological HIV-1 test positivity; one was a suspected baseline infection. Of the three incident cases, all three were non-adherent to PrEP and none developed drug resistance. Among participants taking emtricitabine plus tenofovir alafenamide for up to 144 weeks, markers of glomerular filtration and proximal renal tubule dysfunction (ß2-microglobulin to creatinine ratio and retinol-binding protein to creatinine ratio) improved or remained stable at 144 weeks compared with baseline, bone mineral density in hip and lumbar spine increased or remained stable from baseline to week 144 (n=191), cholesterol and glucose concentrations remained stable, and median bodyweight increased by less than 1 kg per year. In participants who switched from emtricitabine plus tenofovir disoproxil fumarate during the open-label phase (2115 [79%] of 2693), markers of glomerular filtration and proximal renal tubule dysfunction improved or remained stable, bone mineral density increased, cholesterol concentrations increased, glucose concentrations were similar, and median bodyweight increased more compared with those who remained on emtricitabine and tenofovir alafenamide. INTERPRETATION: Routine HIV-1 RNA testing for follow-up of individuals on daily oral PrEP provides modest additional clinical benefit. Long-term use of emtricitabine and tenofovir alafenamide as daily oral PrEP is safe and well tolerated and can be an especially appropriate choice for people with bone or renal morbidities. FUNDING: Gilead Sciences.

SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody treatment followed by vaccination shifts human memory B cell epitope recognition suggesting antibody feedback.

Therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been studied in humans, but the impact on immune memory of mAb treatment during an ongoing infection has remained unclear. We evaluated the effect of infusion of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (RBD) mAb bamlanivimab on memory B cells (MBCs) in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals. Bamlanivimab treatment skewed the repertoire of memory B cells targeting Spike towards non-RBD epitopes. Furthermore, the relative affinity of RBD memory B cells was weaker in mAb-treated individuals compared to placebo-treated individuals over time. Subsequently, after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, memory B cell differences persisted and mapped to a specific reduction in recognition of the class II RBD site, the same RBD epitope recognized by bamlanivimab. These findings indicate a substantial role of antibody feedback in regulating memory B cell responses to infection, and single mAb administration can continue to impact memory B cell responses to additional antigen exposures months later.

Safety, Efficacy, and Pharmacokinetics of Combination SARS-CoV-2 Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies BMS-986414 (C135-LS) and BMS-986413 (C144-LS) Administered Subcutaneously in Non-Hospitalized Persons with COVID-19 in a Phase 2 Trial.

Background: Outpatient COVID-19 monoclonal antibody (mAb) treatment via subcutaneous delivery, if effective, overcomes the logistical burdens of intravenous administration. Methods: ACTIV-2/A5401 was a randomized, masked placebo-controlled platform trial where participants with COVID-19 at low risk for progression were randomized 1:1 to subcutaneously administered BMS-986414 (C135-LS) 200 mg, plus BMS-986413 (C144-LS) 200 mg, (BMS mAbs), or placebo. Coprimary outcomes were time to symptom improvement through 28 days; nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA below the lower limit of quantification (LLoQ) on days 3, 7, or 14; and treatment-emergent grade 3 or higher adverse events (TEAEs) through 28 days. Results: A total of 211 participants (105 BMS mAbs and 106 placebo) initiated study product. Time to symptom improvement favored the active therapy but was not significant (median 8 vs 10 days, P=0.19). There was no significant difference in the proportion with SARS-CoV-2 RNA

Ebola Virus-Specific Neutralizing Antibody Persists at High Levels in Survivors 2 Years After Resolution of Disease in a Sierra Leonean Cohort.

Ebola virus (EBOV) infection results in Ebola virus disease (EVD), an often severe disease with a nonspecific presentation. Since its recognition, periodic outbreaks of EVD continue to occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The 2013-2016 West African EVD outbreak was the largest recorded, resulting in a substantial cohort of EVD survivors with persistent health complaints and variable immune responses. In this study, we characterize humoral immune responses in EVD survivors and their contacts in Eastern Sierra Leone. We found high levels of EBOV IgG in EVD survivors and lower yet substantial antibody levels in household contacts, suggesting subclinical transmission. Neutralizing antibody function was prevalent but variable in EVD survivors, raising questions about the durability of immune responses from natural infection with EBOV. Additionally, we found that certain discrete symptoms-ophthalmologic and auditory-are associated with EBOV IgG seropositivity, while an array of symptoms are associated with the presence of neutralizing antibody.

Modeling the emergence of viral resistance for SARS-CoV-2 during treatment with an anti-spike monoclonal antibody.

To mitigate the loss of lives during the COVID-19 pandemic, emergency use authorization was given to several anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients with a high risk of progressing to severe disease. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat SARS-CoV-2 target the spike protein of the virus and block its ability to enter and infect target cells. Monoclonal antibody therapy can thus accelerate the decline in viral load and lower hospitalization rates among high-risk patients with variants susceptible to mAb therapy. However, viral resistance has been observed, in some cases leading to a transient viral rebound that can be as large as 3-4 orders of magnitude. As mAbs represent a proven treatment choice for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections, evaluation of treatment-emergent mAb resistance can help uncover underlying pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and may also help in the development of the next generation of mAb therapies. Although resistance can be expected, the large rebounds observed are much more difficult to explain. We hypothesize replenishment of target cells is necessary to generate the high transient viral rebound. Thus, we formulated two models with different mechanisms for target cell replenishment (homeostatic proliferation and return from an innate immune response antiviral state) and fit them to data from persons with SARS-CoV-2 treated with a mAb. We showed that both models can explain the emergence of resistant virus associated with high transient viral rebounds. We found that variations in the target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters have a strong impact on the magnitude or observability of the viral rebound associated with the emergence of resistant virus. Both variations in target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters may explain why only some individuals develop observable transient resistant viral rebound. Our study highlights the conditions that can lead to resistance and subsequent viral rebound in mAb treatments during acute infection.

High Body Mass Index and Response to Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Therapy in Pediatric Crohn's Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Obesity is common among patients with pediatric Crohn's disease (PCD). Some adult studies suggest obese patients respond less well to anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) treatment. This study sought compares anti-TNF response and anti-TNF levels between pediatric patients with normal and high body mass index (BMI). METHODS: The COMBINE trial compared anti-TNF monotherapy with combination therapy with methotrexate in patients with PCD. In this secondary analysis, a comparison of time-to-treatment failure among patients with normal BMI vs BMI Z -score >1, adjusting for prescribed anti-TNF (infliximab [IFX] or adalimumab [ADA]), trial treatment assignment (combination vs monotherapy), and relevant covariates. Median anti-TNF levels across BMI category was also examined. RESULTS: Of 224 participants (162 IFX initiators and 62 ADA initiators), 111 (81%) had a normal BMI and 43 (19%) had a high BMI. High BMI was associated with treatment failure among ADA initiators (7/10 [70%] vs 12/52 [23%], hazard ratio 0.29, P = 0.007) but not IFX initiators. In addition, ADA-treated patients with a high BMI had lower ADA levels compared with those with normal BMI (median 5.8 vs 12.8 µg/mL, P = 0.02). IFX trough levels did not differ between BMI groups. DISCUSSION: Overweight and obese patients with PCD are more likely to experience ADA treatment failure than those with normal BMI. Higher BMI was associated with lower drug trough levels. Standard ADA dosing may be insufficient for overweight children with PCD. Among IFX initiators, there was no observed difference in clinical outcomes or drug levels, perhaps due to weight-based dosing and/or greater use of proactive drug monitoring.

COVID-19 hospitalization risk after outpatient nirmatrelvir/ritonavir use, January to August 2022, North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: In the USA, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir is authorized for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients at least 12 years of age, at high risk for progression to severe COVID-19. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the impact of outpatient nirmatrelvir/ritonavir on COVID-19 hospitalization risk in a US healthcare system. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study using electronic health records among outpatients with a positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test between January and August 2022. We evaluated the association of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir therapy with time to hospitalization by estimating adjusted HRs and assessed the impact of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir on predicted COVID-19 hospitalizations using machine-learning methods. RESULTS: Among 44 671 patients, 4948 (11%) received nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 201 (0.4%) were hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients were more likely to be older, white, vaccinated, have comorbidities and reside in areas with higher average socioeconomic status. The 28 day cumulative incidence of hospitalization was 0.06% (95% CI: 0.02%-0.17%) among nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients and 0.52% (95% CI: 0.46%-0.60%) among non-recipients. For nirmatrelvir/ritonavir versus no therapy, the age-adjusted HR was 0.08 (95% CI: 0.03-0.26); the fully adjusted HR was 0.16 (95% CI: 0.05-0.50). In the machine-learning model, the primary features reducing predicted hospitalization risk were nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, younger age, vaccination, female gender and residence in a higher socioeconomic status area. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 hospitalization risk was reduced by 84% among nirmatrelvir/ritonavir recipients in a large, diverse healthcare system during the Omicron wave. These results suggest that nirmatrelvir/ritonavir remained highly effective in a setting substantially different than the original clinical trials.

SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody treatment followed by vaccination shifts human memory B cell epitope recognition suggesting antibody feedback.

Therapeutic anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been extensively studied in humans, but the impact on immune memory of mAb treatment during an ongoing immune response has remained unclear. Here, we evaluated the effect of infusion of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike receptor binding domain (RBD) mAb bamlanivimab on memory B cells (MBCs) in SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals. Bamlanivimab treatment skewed the repertoire of memory B cells targeting Spike towards non-RBD epitopes. Furthermore, the relative affinity of RBD memory B cells was weaker in mAb-treated individuals compared to placebo-treated individuals over time. Subsequently, after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination, memory B cell differences persisted and mapped to a specific defect in recognition of the class II RBD site, the same RBD epitope recognized by bamlanivimab. These findings indicate a substantial role of antibody feedback in regulating human memory B cell responses, both to infection and vaccination. These data indicate that mAb administration can promote alterations in the epitopes recognized by the B cell repertoire, and the single administration of mAb can continue to determine the fate of B cells in response to additional antigen exposures months later.

The immunogenicity of an HIV-1 gag conserved element DNA vaccine in people with HIV and receiving antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of the study was to assess the immunogenicity of an HIV-1 Gag conserved element DNA vaccine (p24CE DNA) in people with HIV (PWH) receiving suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART). DESIGN: AIDS Clinical Trials Group A5369 was a phase I/IIa, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of PWH receiving ART with plasma HIV-1 RNA less than 50 copies/ml, current CD4+ T-cell counts greater than 500 cells/µl, and nadir CD4+ T-cell counts greater than 350 cells/µl. METHODS: The study enrolled 45 participants randomized 2 : 1 : 1 to receive p24CE DNA vaccine at weeks 0 and 4, followed by p24CE DNA admixed with full-length p55Gag DNA vaccine at weeks 12 and 24 (arm A); full-length p55Gag DNA vaccine at weeks 0, 4, 12, and 24 (arm B); or placebo at weeks 0, 4, 12, and 24 (arm c). The active and placebo vaccines were administered by intramuscular electroporation. RESULTS: There was a modest, but significantly greater increase in the number of conserved elements recognized by CD4+ and/or CD8+ T cells in arm A compared with arm C (P = 0.014). The percentage of participants with an increased number of conserved elements recognized by T cells was also highest in arm A (8/18, 44.4%) vs. arm C (0/10, 0.0%) (P = 0.025). There were no significant differences between treatment groups in the change in magnitude of responses to total conserved elements. CONCLUSION: A DNA-delivered HIV-1 Gag conserved element vaccine boosted by a combination of this vaccine with a full-length p55Gag DNA vaccine induced a new conserved element-directed cellular immune response in approximately half the treated PWH on ART.

Early antiviral CD4 and CD8 T cell responses are associated with upper respiratory tract clearance of SARS-CoV-2.

T cells are involved in protective immunity against numerous viral infections. Limited data have been available regarding roles of human T cell responses controlling SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance in primary COVID-19. Here, we examined longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 upper respiratory tract viral RNA levels and early adaptive immune responses from 95 unvaccinated individuals with acute COVID-19. Acute SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4 and CD8 T cell responses were evaluated in addition to antibody responses. Most individuals with acute COVID-19 developed rapid SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses during infection, and both early CD4 T cell and CD8 T cell responses correlated with reduced upper respiratory tract SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA, independent of neutralizing antibody titers. Overall, our findings indicate a distinct protective role for SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells during acute COVID-19.

Safety and efficacy of inhaled interferon-ß1a (SNG001) in adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19: a randomized, controlled, phase II trial.

Background: With the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants resistant to monoclonal antibody therapies and limited global access to therapeutics, the evaluation of novel therapeutics to prevent progression to severe COVID-19 remains a critical need. Methods: Safety, clinical and antiviral efficacy of inhaled interferon-ß1a (SNG001) were evaluated in a phase II randomized controlled trial on the ACTIV-2/A5401 platform (ClinicalTrials.govNCT04518410). Adult outpatients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within 10 days of symptom onset were randomized and initiated either orally inhaled nebulized SNG001 given once daily for 14 days (n = 110) or blinded pooled placebo (n = 110) between February 10 and August 18, 2021. Findings: The proportion of participants reporting premature treatment discontinuation was 9% among SNG001 and 13% among placebo participants. There were no differences between participants who received SNG001 or placebo in the primary outcomes of treatment emergent Grade 3 or higher adverse events (3.6% and 8.2%, respectively), time to symptom improvement (median 13 and 9 days, respectively), or proportion with unquantifiable nasopharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA at days 3 (28% [26/93] vs. 39% [37/94], respectively), 7 (65% [60/93] vs. 66% [62/94]) and 14 (91% [86/95] vs. 91% [83/81]). There were fewer hospitalizations with SNG001 (n = 1; 1%) compared with placebo (n = 7; 6%), representing an 86% relative risk reduction (p = 0.07). There were no deaths in either arm. Interpretation: In this trial, SNG001 was safe and associated with a non-statistically significant decrease in hospitalization for COVID-19 pneumonia. Funding: The ACTIV-2 platform study is funded by the NIH. Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number UM1 AI068634, UM1 AI068636 and UM1 AI106701. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

Modeling the emergence of viral resistance for SARS-CoV-2 during treatment with an anti-spike monoclonal antibody.

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to over 760 million cases and 6.9 million deaths worldwide. To mitigate the loss of lives, emergency use authorization was given to several anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody (mAb) therapies for the treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 in patients with a high risk of progressing to severe disease. Monoclonal antibodies used to treat SARS-CoV-2 target the spike protein of the virus and block its ability to enter and infect target cells. Monoclonal antibody therapy can thus accelerate the decline in viral load and lower hospitalization rates among high-risk patients with susceptible variants. However, viral resistance has been observed, in some cases leading to a transient viral rebound that can be as large as 3-4 orders of magnitude. As mAbs represent a proven treatment choice for SARS-CoV-2 and other viral infections, evaluation of treatment-emergent mAb resistance can help uncover underlying pathobiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and may also help in the development of the next generation of mAb therapies. Although resistance can be expected, the large rebounds observed are much more difficult to explain. We hypothesize replenishment of target cells is necessary to generate the high transient viral rebound. Thus, we formulated two models with different mechanisms for target cell replenishment (homeostatic proliferation and return from an innate immune response anti-viral state) and fit them to data from persons with SARS-CoV-2 treated with a mAb. We showed that both models can explain the emergence of resistant virus associated with high transient viral rebounds. We found that variations in the target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters have a strong impact on the magnitude or observability of the viral rebound associated with the emergence of resistant virus. Both variations in target cell supply rate and adaptive immunity parameters may explain why only some individuals develop observable transient resistant viral rebound. Our study highlights the conditions that can lead to resistance and subsequent viral rebound in mAb treatments during acute infection.

Variant-Specific Viral Kinetics in Acute COVID-19.

Understanding variant-specific differences in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral kinetics may explain differences in transmission efficiency and provide insights on pathogenesis and prevention. We evaluated SARS-CoV-2 kinetics from nasal swabs across multiple variants (Alpha, Delta, Epsilon, Gamma) in placebo recipients of the ACTIV-2/A5401 trial. Delta variant infection led to the highest maximum viral load and shortest time from symptom onset to viral load peak. There were no significant differences in time to viral clearance across the variants. Viral decline was biphasic with first- and second-phase decays having half-lives of 11 hours and 2.5 days, respectively, with differences among variants, especially in the second phase. These results suggest that while variant-specific differences in viral kinetics exist, post-peak viral load all variants appeared to be efficiently cleared by the host. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

Immune Status and SARS-CoV-2 Viral Dynamics.

Immunocompromised individuals are disproportionately affected by severe coronavirus disease 2019, but immune compromise is heterogenous, and viral dynamics may vary by the degree of immunosuppression. In this study, we categorized ACTIV-2/A5401 participants based on the extent of immunocompromise into none, mild, moderate, and severe immunocompromise. Moderate/severe immunocompromise was associated with higher nasal viral load at enrollment (adjusted difference in means: 0.47 95% confidence interval, .12-.83 log10 copies/mL) and showed a trend toward higher cumulative nasal RNA levels and plasma viremia compared to nonimmunocompromised individuals. Immunosuppression leads to greater viral shedding and altered severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral decay kinetics. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

Pooling Different Placebos as a Control Group in a Randomized Platform Trial: Benefits and Challenges From Experience in the ACTIV-2 COVID-19 Trial.

Adaptive platform trials were implemented during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic to rapidly evaluate therapeutics, including the placebo-controlled phase 2/3 ACTIV-2 trial, which studied 7 investigational agents with diverse routes of administration. For each agent, safety and efficacy outcomes were compared to a pooled placebo control group, which included participants who received a placebo for that agent or for other agents in concurrent evaluation. A 2-step randomization framework was implemented to facilitate this. Over the study duration, the pooled placebo design achieved a reduction in sample size of 6% versus a trial involving distinct placebo control groups for evaluating each agent. However, a 26% reduction was achieved during the period when multiple agents were in parallel phase 2 evaluation. We discuss some of the complexities implementing the pooled placebo design versus a design involving nonoverlapping control groups, with the aim of informing the design of future platform trials. Clinical Trials Registration. NCT04518410.

Long COVID After Bamlanivimab Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Prospective evaluations of long COVID in outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are lacking. We aimed to determine the frequency and predictors of long COVID after treatment with the monoclonal antibody bamlanivimab in ACTIV-2/A5401. METHODS: Data were analyzed from participants who received bamlanivimab 700 mg in ACTIV-2 from October 2020 to February 2021. Long COVID was defined as the presence of self-assessed COVID symptoms at week 24. Self-assessed return to pre-COVID health was also examined. Associations were assessed by regression models. RESULTS: Among 506 participants, median age was 51 years. Half were female, 5% Black/African American, and 36% Hispanic/Latino. At 24 weeks, 18% reported long COVID and 15% had not returned to pre-COVID health. Smoking (adjusted risk ratio [aRR], 2.41 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.34- 4.32]), female sex (aRR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.28-2.85]), non-Hispanic ethnicity (aRR, 1.92 [95% CI, 1.19-3.13]), and presence of symptoms 22-28 days posttreatment (aRR, 2.70 [95% CI, 1.63-4.46]) were associated with long COVID, but nasal severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 RNA was not. CONCLUSIONS: Long COVID occurred despite early, effective monoclonal antibody therapy and was associated with smoking, female sex, and non-Hispanic ethnicity, but not viral burden. The strong association between symptoms 22-28 days after treatment and long COVID suggests that processes of long COVID start early and may need early intervention. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04518410.

Validity and Characterization of Time to Symptom Resolution Outcome Measures in the ACTIV-2/A5401 Outpatient COVID-19 Treatment Trial.

BACKGROUND: Time to symptom resolution measures were used in outpatient coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatment trials without prior validation. METHODS: ACTIV-2/A5401 trial participants completed a COVID-19 diary assessing 13 targeted symptoms and global experience (overall COVID-19 symptoms, return to pre-COVID-19 health) daily for 29 days. We evaluated concordance of time to sustained (2 days) resolution of all targeted symptoms (TSR) with resolution of overall symptoms and return to health in participants receiving placebo. RESULTS: The analysis included 77 high-risk and 81 standard-risk participants with overall median 6 days of symptoms at entry and median age 47 years, 50% female, 82% white, and 31% Hispanic/Latino. Correlation between TSR and resolution of overall symptoms was 0.80 and 0.68, and TSR and return to health, 0.66 and 0.57 for high- and standard-risk groups, respectively. Of the high- and standard-risk participants, 61% and 79%, respectively, achieved targeted symptom resolution, of which 47% and 43%, respectively, reported symptom recurrence. Requiring >2 days to define sustained resolution reduced the frequency of recurrences. CONCLUSIONS: There was good internal consistency between TSR and COVID-19-specific global outcomes, supporting TSR as a trial end point. Requiring >2 days of symptom resolution better addresses natural symptom fluctuations but must be balanced against the potential influence of non-COVID-19 symptoms. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04518410.

Statistical Challenges When Analyzing SARS-CoV-2 RNA Measurements Below the Assay Limit of Quantification in COVID-19 Clinical Trials.

Most clinical trials evaluating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) therapeutics include assessments of antiviral activity. In recently completed outpatient trials, changes in nasal severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA levels from baseline were commonly assessed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) or mixed models for repeated measures (MMRM) with single imputation for results below assay lower limits of quantification (LLoQ). Analyzing changes in viral RNA levels with singly imputed values can lead to biased estimates of treatment effects. In this article, using an illustrative example from the ACTIV-2 trial, we highlight potential pitfalls of imputation when using ANCOVA or MMRM methods, and illustrate how these methods can be used when considering values