Addressing Fecal Contamination in Rural Kenyan Households: The Roles of Environmental Interventions and Animal Ownership.

Combined water, sanitation, and handwashing (WSH) interventions could reduce fecal contamination along more transmission pathways than single interventions alone. We measured Escherichia coli levels in 3909 drinking water samples, 2691 child hand rinses, and 2422 toy ball rinses collected from households enrolled in a 2-year cluster-randomized controlled trial evaluating single and combined WSH interventions. Water treatment with chlorine reduced E. coli in drinking water. A combined WSH intervention improved water quality by the same magnitude but did not affect E. coli levels on hands or toys. One potential explanation for the limited impact of the sanitation intervention (upgraded latrines) is failure to address dog and livestock fecal contamination. Small ruminant (goat or sheep) ownership was associated with increased E. coli levels in stored water and on child hands. Cattle and poultry ownership was protective against child stunting, and domesticated animal ownership was not associated with child diarrhea. Our findings do not support restricting household animal ownership to prevent child diarrheal disease or stunting but do support calls for WSH infrastructure that can more effectively reduce household fecal contamination.

Observations of Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) Nucleic Acids in Wastewater Solids Across the United States in the 2022-2023 Season: Relationships with RSV Infection Positivity and Hospitalization Rates.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory illness and hospitalization, but clinical surveillance detects only a minority of cases. Wastewater surveillance could determine the onset and extent of RSV circulation in the absence of sensitive case detection, but to date, studies of RSV in wastewater are few. We measured RSV RNA concentrations in wastewater solids from 176 sites during the 2022-2023 RSV season and compared those to publicly available RSV infection positivity and hospitalization rates. Concentrations ranged from undetectable to 107 copies per gram. RSV RNA concentration aggregated at state and national levels correlated with infection positivity and hospitalization rates. RSV season onset was determined using both wastewater and clinical positivity rates using independent algorithms for 14 states where both data were available at the start of the RSV season. In 4 of 14 states, wastewater and clinical surveillance identified RSV season onset during the same week; in 3 states, wastewater onset preceded clinical onset, and in 7 states, wastewater onset occurred after clinical onset. Wastewater concentrations generally peaked in the same week as hospitalization rates but after case positivity rates peaked. Differences in onset and peaks in wastewater versus clinical data may reflect inherent differences in the surveillance approaches.

A retrospective longitudinal study of adenovirus group F, norovirus GI and GII, rotavirus, and enterovirus nucleic acids in wastewater solids at two wastewater treatment plants: solid-liquid partitioning and relation to clinical testing data.

Enteric infections are important causes of morbidity and mortality, yet clinical surveillance is limited. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been used to study community circulation of individual enteric viruses and panels of respiratory diseases, but there is limited work studying the concurrent circulation of a suite of important enteric viruses. A retrospective WBE study was carried out at two wastewater treatment plants located in California, United States. Using digital droplet polymerase chain reaction (PCR), we measured concentrations of human adenovirus group F, enteroviruses, norovirus genogroups I and II, and rotavirus nucleic acids in wastewater solids two times per week for 26 months (n = 459 samples) between February 2021 and mid-April 2023. A novel probe-based PCR assay was developed and validated for adenovirus. We compared viral nucleic acid concentrations to positivity rates for viral infections from clinical specimens submitted to a local clinical laboratory to assess concordance between the data sets. We detected all viral targets in wastewater solids. At both wastewater treatment plants, human adenovirus group F and norovirus GII nucleic acids were detected at the highest concentrations (median concentrations greater than 105 copies/g), while rotavirus RNA was detected at the lowest concentrations (median on the order of 103 copies/g). Rotavirus, adenovirus group F, and norovirus nucleic acid concentrations were positively associated with clinical specimen positivity rates. Concentrations of tested viral nucleic acids exhibited complex associations with SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viral nucleic acids in wastewater, suggesting divergent transmission patterns.IMPORTANCEThis study provides evidence for the use of wastewater solids for the sensitive detection of enteric virus targets in wastewater-based epidemiology programs aimed to better understand the spread of enteric disease at a localized, community level without limitations associated with testing many individuals. Wastewater data can inform clinical, public health, and individual decision-making aimed to reduce the transmission of enteric disease.

United States Influenza 2022-2023 Season Characteristics as Inferred from Wastewater Solids, Influenza Hospitalization, and Syndromic Data.

Influenza A virus (IAV) causes significant morbidity and mortality in the United States and has pandemic potential. Identifying IAV epidemic patterns is essential to inform the timing of vaccinations and nonpharmaceutical interventions. In a prospective, longitudinal study design, we measured IAV RNA in wastewater settled solids at 163 wastewater treatment plants across 33 states to characterize the 2022-2023 influenza season at the state, health and human services (HHS) regional, and national scales. Influenza season onset, offset, duration, peak, and intensity using IAV RNA in wastewater were compared with those determined using laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization rates and outpatient visits for influenza-like illness (ILI). The onset for HHS regions as determined by IAV RNA in wastewater roughly corresponded with those determined using ILI when the annual geometric mean of IAV RNA concentration was used as a baseline (i.e., the threshold that triggers onset), although offsets between the two differed. IAV RNA in wastewater provided early warning of onset, compared to the ILI estimate, when the baseline was set at twice the limit of IAV RNA detection in wastewater. Peak when determined by IAV RNA in wastewater generally preceded peak determined by IAV hospitalization rate by 2 weeks or less. IAV RNA in wastewater settled solids is an IAV-specific indicator that can be used to augment clinical surveillance for seasonal influenza epidemic timing and intensity.

Trends of Enterovirus D68 Concentrations in Wastewater, California, USA, February 2021-April 2023.

In this retrospective study, we measured enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) genomic RNA in wastewater solids longitudinally at 2 California, USA, wastewater treatment plants twice per week for 26 months. EV-D68 RNA was undetectable except when concentrations increased from mid-July to mid-December 2022, which coincided with a peak in confirmed EV-D68 cases.

Human norovirus (HuNoV) GII RNA in wastewater solids at 145 United States wastewater treatment plants: comparison to positivity rates of clinical specimens and modeled estimates of HuNoV GII shedders.

BACKGROUND: Human norovirus (HuNoV) is a leading cause of disease globally, yet actual incidence is unknown. HuNoV infections are not reportable in the United States, and surveillance is limited to tracking severe illnesses or outbreaks. Wastewater monitoring for HuNoV has been done previously and results indicate it is present in wastewater influent and concentrations are associated with HuNoV infections in the communities contributing to wastewater. However, work has mostly been limited to monthly samples of liquid wastewater at one or a few wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). OBJECTIVE: The objectives of this study are to investigate whether HuNoV GII preferentially adsorbs to wastewater solids, investigate concentrations of HuNoV GII in wastewater solids in wastewater treatment plants across the county, and explore how those relate to clinical measures of disease occurrence. In addition, we aim to develop and apply a mass-balance model that predicts the fraction of individuals shedding HuNoV in their stool based on measured concentrations in wastewater solids. METHODS: We measured HuNoV GII RNA in matched wastewater solids and liquid influent in 7 samples from a WWTP. We also applied the HuNoV GII assay to measure viral RNA in over 6000 wastewater solids samples from 145 WWTPs from across the United States daily to three times per week for up to five months. Measurements were made using digital droplet RT-PCR. RESULTS: HuNoV GII RNA preferentially adsorbs to wastewater solids where it is present at 1000 times the concentration in influent. Concentrations of HuNoV GII RNA correlate positively with clinical HuNoV positivity rates. Model output of the fraction of individuals shedding HuNoV is variable and uncertain, but consistent with indirect estimates of symptomatic HuNoV infections in the United States. IMPACT STATEMENT: Illness caused by HuNoV is not reportable in the United States so there is limited data on disease occurrence. Wastewater monitoring can provide information about the community spread of HuNoV. Data from wastewater can be available within 24 h of sample receipt at a laboratory. Wastewater is agnostic to whether individuals seek medical care, are symptomatic, and the severity of illness. Knowledge gleaned from wastewater may be used by public health professionals to make recommendations on hand washing, surface disinfection, or other behaviors to reduce transmission of HuNoV, or medical doctors to inform clinical decision making.

More than a Tripledemic: Influenza A Virus, Respiratory Syncytial Virus, SARS-CoV-2, and Human Metapneumovirus in Wastewater during Winter 2022-2023.

Wastewater monitoring can provide insights into respiratory disease occurrence in communities that contribute to the wastewater system. Using daily measurements of RNA of influenza A (IAV), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and human metapneumovirus (HMPV), as well as SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater solids from eight publicly owned treatment works in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area of California between July 2022 and early July 2023, we identify a "tripledemic" when concentrations of IAV, RSV, and SARS-CoV-2 peaked at approximately the same time. HMPV was also widely circulating. We designed novel hydrolysis probe RT-PCR assays for different IAV subtype markers to discern that the dominant circulating IAV subtype was H3N2. We show that wastewater data can be used to identify the onset and offset of wastewater disease occurrence events. This information can provide insight into disease epidemiology and timely, localized information to inform hospital staffing and clinical decision making to respond to circulating viruses. Whereas RSV and IAV wastewater events were mostly regionally coherent, HMPV events displayed localized occurrence patterns.

Divergence of wastewater SARS-CoV-2 and reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 incident case data coincident with wide-spread availability of at-home COVID-19 antigen tests.

Concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater settled solids from publicly owned treatment works (POTWs) historically correlated strongly with laboratory confirmed incident COVID-19 case data. With the increased availability of at-home antigen tests since late 2021 and early 2022, laboratory test availability and test seeking behavior has decreased. In the United States, the results from at-home antigen tests are not typically reportable to public health agencies and thus are not counted in case reports. As a result, the number of reported laboratory-confirmed incident COVID-19 cases has decreased dramatically, even during times of increased test positivity rates and wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Herein, we tested whether the correlative relationship between wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 incidence rate has changed since 1 May 2022, a point in time immediately before the onset of the BA.2/BA.5 surge, the first surge to begin after at-home antigen test availability was high in the region. We used daily data from three POTWs in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area of California, USA for the analysis. We found that although there is a significant positive association between wastewater measurements and incident rate data collected after 1 May 2022, the parameters describing the relationship are different than those describing the relationship between the data collected prior to 1 May 2022. If laboratory test seeking or availability continues to change, the relationship between wastewater and reported case data will continue to change. Our results suggest, assuming SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding remains relatively stable among those infected with the virus as different variants emerge, that wastewater concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be used to estimate COVID-19 cases as they would have been during the time when laboratory testing availability and test seeking behavior were at a high (here, before 1 May 2022) using the historical relationship between SARS-CoV-2 RNA and COVID-19 case data.

Expansion of wastewater-based disease surveillance to improve health equity in California's Central Valley: sequential shifts in case-to-wastewater and hospitalization-to-wastewater ratios.

Introduction: Over a third of the communities (39%) in the Central Valley of California, a richly diverse and important agricultural region, are classified as disadvantaged-with inadequate access to healthcare, lower socio-economic status, and higher exposure to air and water pollution. The majority of racial and ethnic minorities are also at higher risk of COVID-19 infection, hospitalization, and death according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Healthy Central Valley Together established a wastewater-based disease surveillance (WDS) program that aims to achieve greater health equity in the region through partnership with Central Valley communities and the Sewer Coronavirus Alert Network. WDS offers a cost-effective strategy to monitor trends in SARS-CoV-2 community infection rates. Methods: In this study, we evaluated correlations between public health and wastewater data (represented as SARS-CoV-2 target gene copies normalized by pepper mild mottle virus target gene copies) collected for three Central Valley communities over two periods of COVID-19 infection waves between October 2021 and September 2022. Public health data included clinical case counts at county and sewershed scales as well as COVID-19 hospitalization and intensive care unit admissions. Lag-adjusted hospitalization:wastewater ratios were also evaluated as a retrospective metric of disease severity and corollary to hospitalization:case ratios. Results: Consistent with other studies, strong correlations were found between wastewater and public health data. However, a significant reduction in case:wastewater ratios was observed for all three communities from the first to the second wave of infections, decreasing from an average of 4.7 ± 1.4 over the first infection wave to 0.8 ± 0.4 over the second. Discussion: The decline in case:wastewater ratios was likely due to reduced clinical testing availability and test seeking behavior, highlighting how WDS can fill data gaps associated with under-reporting of cases. Overall, the hospitalization:wastewater ratios remained more stable through the two waves of infections, averaging 0.5 ± 0.3 and 0.3 ± 0.4 over the first and second waves, respectively.

The Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus Movement Protein Gene Is a Novel Microbial Source Tracking Marker.

Microbial source tracking (MST) identifies sources of fecal contamination in the environment using host-associated fecal markers. While there are numerous bacterial MST markers that can be used herein, there are few such viral markers. Here, we designed and tested novel viral MST markers based on tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) genomes. We assembled eight nearly complete genomes of ToBRFV from wastewater and stool samples from the San Francisco Bay Area in the United States. Next, we developed two novel probe-based reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) assays based on conserved regions of the ToBRFV genome and tested the markers' sensitivities and specificities using human and non-human animal stool as well as wastewater. The ToBRFV markers are sensitive and specific; in human stool and wastewater, they are more prevalent and abundant than a commonly used viral marker, the pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) coat protein (CP) gene. We used the assays to detect fecal contamination in urban stormwater samples and found that the ToBRFV markers matched cross-assembly phage (crAssphage), an established viral MST marker, in prevalence across samples. Taken together, these results indicate that ToBRFV is a promising viral human-associated MST marker. IMPORTANCE Human exposure to fecal contamination in the environment can cause transmission of infectious diseases. Microbial source tracking (MST) can identify sources of fecal contamination so that contamination can be remediated and human exposures can be reduced. MST requires the use of host-associated MST markers. Here, we designed and tested novel MST markers from genomes of tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV). The markers are sensitive and specific to human stool and highly abundant in human stool and wastewater samples.

Human viral nucleic acids concentrations in wastewater solids from Central and Coastal California USA.

We measured concentrations of SARS-CoV-2, influenza A and B virus, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), mpox virus, human metapneumovirus, norovirus GII, and pepper mild mottle virus nucleic acids in wastewater solids at twelve wastewater treatment plants in Central California, USA. Measurements were made daily for up to two years, depending on the wastewater treatment plant. Measurements were made using digital droplet (reverse-transcription-) polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) following best practices for making environmental molecular biology measurements. These data can be used to better understand disease occurrence in communities contributing to the wastewater.

Respiratory virus concentrations in human excretions that contribute to wastewater: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Concentrations of nucleic acids from a range of respiratory viruses in wastewater solids collected from wastewater treatment plants correlate to clinical data on disease occurrence in the community contributing to the wastewater. Viral nucleic acids enter wastewater from excretions deposited in toilets or drains. To relate measured concentrations in wastewater at a treatment plant to the number of community infections, viral nucleic-acid concentrations in human excretions are needed as inputs to a mass balance model. Here, we carried out a systematic review and meta-analysis to characterize the concentrations and presence of influenza A and B, respiratory syncytial virus, metapneumovirus, parainfluenza virus, rhinovirus, and seasonal coronaviruses in stool, urine, mucus, sputum, and saliva. We identified 220 data sets from 50 articles and reported viral concentrations and presence in these excretions. Data were unevenly distributed across virus type (with the most available for influenza) and excretion type (with the most available for respiratory excretions). Most articles only reported the presence or absence of the virus in a cross-sectional study design. There is a need for more concentration data, including longitudinal data, across all respiratory virus and excretion types. Such data would allow quantitatively linking virus wastewater concentrations to numbers of infected individuals.

Enveloped and non-enveloped virus survival on microfiber towels.

Background: Handwashing is an important intervention which can reduce indirect disease transmission, however soap and water for handwashing purposes is not available in some low-resource regions. When handwashing with soap and water is not possible, individuals may use alternatives such as the Supertowel (a microfiber towel with an antimicrobial coating). Testing of viral inactivation as a result of antimicrobial treatment on the Supertowel, however, has been limited. The goal of this study is to provide information about the performance of the Supertowel's antimicrobial treatment against viruses, which will help inform the use of the towels as handwashing alternatives. Methods: We seeded the Supertowel and a regular microfiber towel with two bacteriophages (enveloped Phi6 and non-enveloped MS2) and monitored viral inactivation over time. Additionally, we assessed if temperature, humidity, whether the towel was initially wet or dry, or virus type had an effect on viral decay rate constants. Virus concentrations were measured repeatedly over 24 h. Results: We found that neither towel type (whether the towel was a Supertowel or a regular microfiber towel) nor humidity were significant variables in our model of decay rate constants (P = 0.06 and P = 0.22, respectively). We found that the variables of temperature, whether towels were initially wet versus dry, and virus type were significantly different from 0, suggesting that these variables explained variance in the decay rate constant (P = 6.55 × 10-13, P = 0.001, and P < 2 × 10-16, respectively). Higher temperatures, dry towels, and enveloped viruses all resulted in increases in the decay rate constant. Conclusions: Viruses seeded onto a Supertowel decay similar to viruses seeded onto a regular towel indicating that the virucidal potential of the Supertowel is minimal.

Wastewater concentrations of human influenza, metapneumovirus, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, and seasonal coronavirus nucleic-acids during the COVID-19 pandemic: a surveillance study.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality; however, surveillance for circulating respiratory viruses is passive and biased. Wastewater-based epidemiology has been used to understand SARS-CoV-2, influenza A, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection rates at a community level but has not been used to investigate other respiratory viruses. We aimed to use wastewater-based epidemiology to understand community viral respiratory infection occurrence. METHODS: A retrospective wastewater-based epidemiology surveillance study was carried out at a large wastewater treatment plant located in California, USA. Using droplet digital RT-PCR, we measured RNA concentrations of influenza A and influenza B viruses, RSV A and RSV B, parainfluenza (1-4) viruses, rhinovirus, seasonal coronaviruses, and metapneumovirus in wastewater solids three times per week for 17 months (216 samples) between Feb 1, 2021, and June 21, 2022. Novel probe-based RT-PCR assays for non-influenza viral targets were developed and validated. We compared viral RNA concentrations to positivity rates for viral infections from clinical specimens submitted to California Sentinel Clinical Laboratories (sentinel laboratories) to assess concordance between the two datasets. FINDINGS: We detected RNA from all tested viruses in wastewater solids. Human rhinovirus (median concentration 4300 [0-9500] copies per gram dry weight) and seasonal human coronaviruses (35 000 [17 000-56 000]) were found at the highest concentrations. Concentrations of viral RNA correlated significantly and positively with positivity rates of associated viral diseases from sentinel laboratories (tau 0·32-0·57, p<0·0009); the only exceptions were influenza B and RSV A, which were rarely detected in wastewater solids. Measurements from wastewater indicated coronavirus OC43 dominated the seasonal human coronavirus infections whereas parainfluenza 3 dominated among parainfluenza infections during the study period. Concentrations of all tested viral RNA decreased noticeably after the omicron BA.1 surge suggesting a connection between changes in human behaviour during the surge and transmission of all respiratory viruses. INTERPRETATION: Wastewater-based epidemiology can be used to obtain information on circulation of respiratory viruses at a localised, community level without the need to test many individuals because a single sample of wastewater represents the entire contributing community. Results from wastewater can be available within 24 h of sample collection, generating real time information to inform public health responses, clinical decision making, and individual behaviour modifications. FUNDING: CDC Foundation.

Tomato brown rugose fruit virus Mo gene is a novel microbial source tracking marker.

Microbial source tracking (MST) identifies sources of fecal contamination in the environment using fecal host-associated markers. While there are numerous bacterial MST markers, there are few viral markers. Here we design and test novel viral MST markers based on tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV) genomes. We assembled eight nearly complete genomes of ToBRFV from wastewater and stool samples from the San Francisco Bay Area in the United States of America. Next, we developed two novel probe-based RT-PCR assays based on conserved regions of the ToBRFV genome, and tested the markers’ sensitivities and specificities using human and non-human animal stool as well as wastewater. TheToBRFV markers are sensitive and specific; in human stool and wastewater, they are more prevalent and abundant than a currently used marker, the pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) coat protein (CP) gene. We applied the assays to detect fecal contamination in urban stormwater samples and found that the ToBRFV markers matched cross-assembly phage (crAssphage), an established viral MST marker, in prevalence across samples. Taken together, ToBRFV is a promising viral human-associated MST marker. Importance: Human exposure to fecal contamination in the environment can cause transmission of infectious diseases. Microbial source tracking (MST) can identify sources of fecal contamination so that contamination can be remediated and human exposures can be reduced. MST requires the use of fecal host-associated MST markers. Here we design and test novel MST markers from genomes of tomato brown rugose fruit virus (ToBRFV). The markers are sensitive and specific to human stool, and highly abundant in human stool and wastewater samples.

Quantifying the Viral Reduction Achieved Using Ash and Sand as Handwashing Agents.

The WHO recommends handwashing with soap and water for 20-40 seconds. In settings where soap is not available, ash or sand is used for handwashing, yet their efficacy as handwashing materials is underresearched. The purpose of this study was to quantify the removal of viruses using ash and sand as handwashing agents, and compare their efficacy to commonly recommended handwashing methods. We performed a volunteer study to estimate the log reduction value (LRV) of model viruses Phi6 and MS2 on hands after six handwashing conditions: two handwashing agents (ash and water, and sand and water) with two time points (5 and 20 seconds), and two handwashing agents (soap and water, and water only) with one time point (20 seconds). Plaque assays were used to measure infectious virus reduction. Handwashing with any of the handwashing agents for 20 seconds resulted in a greater LRV than the 2-log reduction U.S. Food and Drug Administration criteria for both viruses. Soap and water resulted in a significantly greater LRV (2.7-4.8) than washing with ash and water (2.0-2.8) or sand and water (1.8-2.7) for 5 seconds for both viruses, and water only resulted in a significantly higher LRV (2.8) than all ash (2.0-2.6) and sand (1.8-2.4) conditions for MS2 only. These results suggest that using ash or sand as handwashing agents can be efficacious in reducing viruses but may be less efficacious than soap, especially when used for shorter durations. Further research should investigate the use of ash and sand as handwashing agents in real-world settings.

Looking Forward: The Role of Academic Researchers in Building Sustainable Wastewater Surveillance Programs.

BACKGROUND: In just over 2 years, tracking the COVID-19 pandemic through wastewater surveillance advanced from early reports of successful SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection in untreated wastewater to implementation of programs in at least 60 countries. Early wastewater monitoring efforts primarily originated in research laboratories and are now transitioning into more formal surveillance programs run in commercial and public health laboratories. A major challenge in this progression has been to simultaneously optimize methods and build scientific consensus while implementing surveillance programs, particularly during the rapidly changing landscape of the pandemic. Translating wastewater surveillance results for effective use by public health agencies also remains a key objective for the field. OBJECTIVES: We examined the evolution of wastewater surveillance to identify model collaborations and effective partnerships that have created rapid and sustained success. We propose needed areas of research and key roles academic researchers can play in the framework of wastewater surveillance to aid in the transition from early monitoring efforts to more formalized programs within the public health system. DISCUSSION: Although wastewater surveillance has rapidly developed as a useful public health tool for tracking COVID-19, there remain technical challenges and open scientific questions that academic researchers are equipped to address. This includes validating methodology and backfilling important knowledge gaps, such as fate and transport of surveillance targets and epidemiological links to wastewater concentrations. Our experience in initiating and implementing wastewater surveillance programs in the United States has allowed us to reflect on key barriers and draw useful lessons on how to promote synergy between different areas of expertise. As wastewater surveillance programs are formalized, the working relationships developed between academic researchers, commercial and public health laboratories, and data users should promote knowledge co-development. We believe active involvement of academic researchers will contribute to building robust surveillance programs that will ultimately provide new insights into population health. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11519.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA Wastewater Settled Solids Surveillance Frequency and Impact on Predicted COVID-19 Incidence Using a Distributed Lag Model.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA concentrations in wastewater settled solids correlate well with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence rates (IRs). Here, we develop distributed lag models to estimate IRs using concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from wastewater solids and investigate the impact of sampling frequency on model performance. SARS-CoV-2 N gene and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) RNA concentrations were measured daily at four wastewater treatment plants in California. Artificially reduced data sets were produced for each plant with sampling frequencies of once every 2, 3, 4, and 7 days. Sewershed-specific models that related daily N/PMMoV to IR were fit for each sampling frequency with data from mid-November 2020 through mid-July 2021, which included the period of time during which Delta emerged. Models were used to predict IRs during a subsequent out-of-sample time period. When sampling occurred at least once every 4 days, the in- and out-of-sample root-mean-square error changed by <7 cases/100 000 compared to daily sampling across sewersheds. This work illustrates that real-time, daily predictions of IR are possible with small errors, despite changes in circulating variants, when sampling frequency is once every 4 days or more. However, reduced sampling frequency may not serve other important wastewater surveillance use cases.