SARS-CoV-2 Test-to-Stay in Daycare.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Test-to-stay concepts apply serial testing of children in daycare after exposure to SARS-CoV-2 without use of quarantine. This study aims to assess the safety of a test-to-stay screening in daycare facilities. METHODS: 714 daycare facilities and approximately 50 000 children ≤6 years in Cologne, Germany participated in a SARS-CoV-2 Pool-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) screening from March 2021 to April 2022. The screening initially comprised post-exposure quarantine and was adapted to a test-to-stay approach during its course. To assess safety of the test-to-stay approach, we explored potential changes in frequencies of infections among children after the adaptation to the test-to-stay approach by applying regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) analyses. To this end, PCR-test data were linked with routinely collected data on reported infections in children and analyzed using ordinary least squares regressions. RESULTS: 219 885 Pool-PCRs and 352 305 Single-PCRs were performed. 6440 (2.93%) Pool-PCRs tested positive, and 17 208 infections in children were reported. We estimated that during a period of 30 weeks, the test-to-stay concept avoided between 7 and 20 days of quarantine per eligible daycare child. RDiT revealed a 26% reduction (Exp. Coef: 0.74, confidence interval 0.52-1.06) in infection frequency among children and indicated no significant increase attributable to the test-to-stay approach. This result was not sensitive to adjustments for 7-day incidence, season, SARS-CoV-2 variant, and socioeconomic status. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses provide evidence that suggest safety of the test-to-stay approach compared with quarantine measures. This approach offers a promising option to avoid use of quarantine after exposure to respiratory pathogens in daycare settings.

Using LASSO Regression to Estimate the Population-Level Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) protect against diseases caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae, such as meningitis, bacteremia, and pneumonia. It is challenging to estimate their population-level impact due to the lack of a perfect control population and the subtleness of signals when the endpoint-such as all-cause pneumonia-is nonspecific. Here we present a new approach for estimating the impact of PCVs: using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to select variables in a synthetic control model to predict the counterfactual outcome for vaccine impact inference. We first used a simulation study based on hospitalization data from Mexico (2000-2013) to test the performance of LASSO and established methods, including the synthetic control model with Bayesian variable selection (SC). We found that LASSO achieved accurate and precise estimation, even in complex simulation scenarios where the association between the outcome and all control variables was noncausal. We then applied LASSO to real-world hospitalization data from Chile (2001-2012), Ecuador (2001-2012), Mexico (2000-2013), and the United States (1996-2005), and found that it yielded estimates of vaccine impact similar to SC. The LASSO method is accurate and easily implementable and can be applied to study the impact of PCVs and other vaccines.

The interactions of SARS-CoV-2 with cocirculating pathogens: Epidemiological implications and current knowledge gaps.

Despite the availability of effective vaccines, the persistence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) suggests that cocirculation with other pathogens and resulting multiepidemics (of, for example, COVID-19 and influenza) may become increasingly frequent. To better forecast and control the risk of such multiepidemics, it is essential to elucidate the potential interactions of SARS-CoV-2 with other pathogens; these interactions, however, remain poorly defined. Here, we aimed to review the current body of evidence about SARS-CoV-2 interactions. Our review is structured in four parts. To study pathogen interactions in a systematic and comprehensive way, we first developed a general framework to capture their major components: sign (either negative for antagonistic interactions or positive for synergistic interactions), strength (i.e., magnitude of the interaction), symmetry (describing whether the interaction depends on the order of infection of interacting pathogens), duration (describing whether the interaction is short-lived or long-lived), and mechanism (e.g., whether interaction modifies susceptibility to infection, transmissibility of infection, or severity of disease). Second, we reviewed the experimental evidence from animal models about SARS-CoV-2 interactions. Of the 14 studies identified, 11 focused on the outcomes of coinfection with nonattenuated influenza A viruses (IAVs), and 3 with other pathogens. The 11 studies on IAV used different designs and animal models (ferrets, hamsters, and mice) but generally demonstrated that coinfection increased disease severity compared with either monoinfection. By contrast, the effect of coinfection on the viral load of either virus was variable and inconsistent across studies. Third, we reviewed the epidemiological evidence about SARS-CoV-2 interactions in human populations. Although numerous studies were identified, only a few were specifically designed to infer interaction, and many were prone to multiple biases, including confounding. Nevertheless, their results suggested that influenza and pneumococcal conjugate vaccinations were associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Finally, fourth, we formulated simple transmission models of SARS-CoV-2 cocirculation with an epidemic viral pathogen or an endemic bacterial pathogen, showing how they can naturally incorporate the proposed framework. More generally, we argue that such models, when designed with an integrative and multidisciplinary perspective, will be invaluable tools to resolve the substantial uncertainties that remain about SARS-CoV-2 interactions.

Immunological heterogeneity informs estimation of the durability of vaccine protection.

Deciphering the properties of vaccines against an emerging pathogen is essential for optimizing immunization strategies. Early after vaccine roll-out, however, uncertainties about vaccine immunity raise the question of how much time is needed to estimate these properties, particularly the durability of vaccine protection. Here we designed a simulation study, based on a generic transmission model of vaccination, to simulate the impact of a breadth of vaccines with different mean (range: 10 months-2 years) and variability (coefficient of variation range: 50-100%) of the duration of protection. Focusing on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in the year after start of mass immunization in Germany as a case study, we then assessed how confidently the duration of protection could be estimated under a range of epidemiological scenarios. We found that lower mean and higher heterogeneity facilitated estimation of the duration of vaccine protection. Across the vaccines tested, rapid waning and high heterogeneity permitted complete identification of the duration of protection; by contrast, slow waning and low heterogeneity allowed only estimation of the fraction of vaccinees with rapid loss of immunity. These findings suggest that limited epidemiological data can inform the duration of vaccine immunity. More generally, they highlight the need to carefully consider immunological heterogeneity when designing transmission models to evaluate vaccines.

Filling the Gaps in the Pharmacy Workforce in Post-Conflict Areas: Experience from Four Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: While the pharmacy workforce is the third largest professional healthcare group worldwide, the pharmacy workforce landscape remains unclear in post-conflict areas in sub-Saharan Africa. METHOD: Key informants were selected for semi-structured interviews due to their role in providing pharmacy services in the selected country: the Central African Republic (CAR), the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, and South Sudan. Transcripts from the interviews were anonymized, coded, and analyzed. RESULTS: Nine participants were recruited (CAR: 2; DRC: 2; Ethiopia: 2; South Sudan: 3), and all except two were pharmacists. Conflict-specific challenges in pharmacy service delivery were identified as the following: unpredictable health needs and/or mismatched pharmaceutical supply, transport difficulties due to insecure roads, and shortage of pharmacy workforce due to brain drain or interrupted schooling. Barriers to health workforce retention and growth were identified to be brain drain as a result of suboptimal living and working conditions or remuneration, the perception of an unsafe work environment, and a career pathway or commitment duration that does not fit the diaspora or expatriate staff. CONCLUSION: To tackle the barriers of pharmacy health workforce retention and growth, policy solutions will be required and efforts that can bring about long-term improvement should be prioritized. This is essential to achieve universal health coverage and the targets of the sustainable development goals for conflict affected areas, as well as to "leave no one behind".

Determining Factors for Pertussis Vaccination Policy: A Study in Five EU Countries.

Pertussis vaccination policy varies across Europe, not only in the type of vaccine-whole cell (wP) vs. acellular (aP1/2/3/5)-but also in the schedule and recommendation for parents. This study aims to investigate the determining factors for the type of vaccine, immunization schedule and maternal immunization recommendation. From March to May 2019, experts in national health agencies and major academic or research institutions from Denmark, France, Poland, Sweden and the UK were invited to a semi-structured interview. Thematic analysis was performed on the transcripts using a codebook formulated by three coders. Inter-coder agreement was assessed. Fifteen expert interviews were conducted. The identified driving factors for pertussis vaccine policy were classified into three domains: scientific factors, sociological factors, and pragmatic factors. The determining factors for the type of vaccine were prescriber's preference, concern of adverse events following immunization (AEFI), effectiveness, and consideration of other vaccine components in combined vaccines. The determining factors for infant schedule were immunity response and the potential to improve coverage and timeliness. The determining factors for maternal immunization were infant mortality and public acceptability. To conclude, socio-political and pragmatic factors were, besides scientific factors, important in determining the pertussis vaccine type, schedule of childhood immunization and recommendations for parents.