Public health, climate, and economic impacts of desulfurizing jet fuel.

In jurisdictions including the US and the EU ground transportation and marine fuels have recently been required to contain lower concentrations of sulfur, which has resulted in reduced atmospheric SO(x) emissions. In contrast, the maximum sulfur content of aviation fuel has remained unchanged at 3000 ppm (although sulfur levels average 600 ppm in practice). We assess the costs and benefits of a potential ultra-low sulfur (15 ppm) jet fuel standard ("ULSJ"). We estimate that global implementation of ULSJ will cost US$1-4bn per year and prevent 900-4000 air quality-related premature mortalities per year. Radiative forcing associated with reduction in atmospheric sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium loading is estimated at +3.4 mW/m(2) (equivalent to about 1/10th of the warming due to CO(2) emissions from aviation) and ULSJ increases life cycle CO(2) emissions by approximately 2%. The public health benefits are dominated by the reduction in cruise SO(x) emissions, so a key uncertainty is the atmospheric modeling of vertical transport of pollution from cruise altitudes to the ground. Comparisons of modeled and measured vertical profiles of CO, PAN, O(3), and (7)Be indicate that this uncertainty is low relative to uncertainties regarding the value of statistical life and the toxicity of fine particulate matter.

Quantifying variability in life cycle greenhouse gas inventories of alternative middle distillate transportation fuels.

The presence of variability in life cycle analysis (LCA) is inherent due to both inexact LCA procedures and variation of numerical inputs. Variability in LCA needs to be clearly distinguished from uncertainty. This paper uses specific examples from the production of diesel and jet fuels from 14 different feedstocks to demonstrate general trends in the types and magnitudes of variability present in life cycle greenhouse gas (LC-GHG) inventories of middle distillate fuels. Sources of variability have been categorized as pathway specific, coproduct usage and allocation, and land use change. The results of this research demonstrate that subjective choices such as coproduct usage and allocation methodology can be more important sources of variability in the LC-GHG inventory of a fuel option than the process and energy use of fuel production. Through the application of a consistent analysis methodology across all fuel options, the influence of these subjective biases is minimized, and the LC-GHG inventories for each feedstock-to-fuel option can be effectively compared and discussed. By considering the types and magnitudes of variability across multiple fuel pathways, it is evident that LCA results should be presented as a range instead of a point value. The policy implications of this are discussed.