Regional impacts of warming on biodiversity and biomass in high latitude stream ecosystems across the Northern Hemisphere.

Warming can have profound impacts on ecological communities. However, explorations of how differences in biogeography and productivity might reshape the effect of warming have been limited to theoretical or proxy-based approaches: for instance, studies of latitudinal temperature gradients are often conflated with other drivers (e.g., species richness). Here, we overcome these limitations by using local geothermal temperature gradients across multiple high-latitude stream ecosystems. Each suite of streams (6-11 warmed by 1-15°C above ambient) is set within one of five regions (37 streams total); because the heating comes from the bedrock and is not confounded by changes in chemistry, we can isolate the effect of temperature. We found a negative overall relationship between diatom and invertebrate species richness and temperature, but the strength of the relationship varied regionally, declining more strongly in regions with low terrestrial productivity. Total invertebrate biomass increased with temperature in all regions. The latter pattern combined with the former suggests that the increased biomass of tolerant species might compensate for the loss of sensitive species. Our results show that the impact of warming can be dependent on regional conditions, demonstrating that local variation should be included in future climate projections rather than simply assuming universal relationships.

High-throughput characterization of bacterial responses to complex mixtures of chemical pollutants.

Our understanding of how microbes respond to micropollutants, such as pesticides, is almost wholly based on single-species responses to individual chemicals. However, in natural environments, microbes experience multiple pollutants simultaneously. Here we perform a matrix of multi-stressor experiments by assaying the growth of model and non-model strains of bacteria in all 255 combinations of 8 chemical stressors (antibiotics, herbicides, fungicides and pesticides). We found that bacterial strains responded in different ways to stressor mixtures, which could not be predicted simply from their phylogenetic relatedness. Increasingly complex chemical mixtures were both more likely to negatively impact bacterial growth in monoculture and more likely to reveal net interactive effects. A mixed co-culture of strains proved more resilient to increasingly complex mixtures and revealed fewer interactions in the growth response. These results show predictability in microbial population responses to chemical stressors and could increase the utility of next-generation eco-toxicological assays.

Down-the-drain pathways for fipronil and imidacloprid applied as spot-on parasiticides to dogs: Estimating aquatic pollution.

Fipronil and imidacloprid have been widely detected in UK surface waters in recent years, often at concentrations that ecotoxicological studies have shown can harm aquatic life. Down-the-drain (DTD) passage of pet flea and tick treatments are being implicated as an important source, with many of the UK's 22 million cats and dogs receiving routine, year-round preventative doses containing these parasiticides. The UK Water Industry's 3rd Chemical Investigation Programme (UKWIR CIP3) has confirmed wastewater as a major entry pathway for these chemicals into surface waters, but the routes by which they enter the wastewater system remain unclear. We addressed this knowledge gap by conducting the first quantification of DTD emissions from 98 dogs treated with spot-on ectoparasiticides containing fipronil or imidacloprid, through bathing, bed washing and washing of owners' hands. Both chemicals were detected in 100 % of washoff samples, with bathing accounting for the largest emissions per event (up to 16.8 % of applied imidacloprid and 24.5 % of applied fipronil). Modelled to account for the frequency of emitting activities, owner handwashing was identified as the largest source of DTD emissions from the population overall, with handwash emissions occurring for at least 28 days following product application and an estimated 4.9 % of imidacloprid and 3.1 % of fipronil applied in dog spot-ons passing down-the-drain via this route. The normalised daily per capita emissions for all routes combined were 8.7 µg/person/day for imidacloprid and 2.1 µg/person/day for fipronil, equivalent to 20-40 % of the daily per capita load in wastewater, as estimated from UKWIR CIP3 data. Within the current international regulatory framework adhered to by the UK, the environmental exposure of veterinary medicines intended for use in small companion animals is assumed to be low, and DTD pathways are not considered. We recommend a systematic review of regulations and practices to address this overlooked pollution pathway.

Chronic exposure to environmental temperature attenuates the thermal sensitivity of salmonids.

Metabolism, the biological processing of energy and materials, scales predictably with temperature and body size. Temperature effects on metabolism are normally studied via acute exposures, which overlooks the capacity for organisms to moderate their metabolism following chronic exposure to warming. Here, we conduct respirometry assays in situ and after transplanting salmonid fish among different streams to disentangle the effects of chronic and acute thermal exposure. We find a clear temperature dependence of metabolism for the transplants, but not the in-situ assays, indicating that chronic exposure to warming can attenuate salmonid thermal sensitivity. A bioenergetic model accurately captures the presence of fish in warmer streams when accounting for chronic exposure, whereas it incorrectly predicts their local extinction with warming when incorporating the acute temperature dependence of metabolism. This highlights the need to incorporate the potential for thermal acclimation or adaptation when forecasting the consequences of global warming on ecosystems.

Extra terrestrials: drought creates niche space for rare invertebrates in a large-scale and long-term field experiment.

Freshwater habitats are drying more frequently and for longer under the combined pressures of climate change and overabstraction. Unsurprisingly, many aquatic species decline or become locally extinct as their benthic habitat is lost during stream droughts, but less is known about the potential 'winners': those terrestrial species that may exploit emerging niches in drying riverbeds. In particular, we do not know how these transient ecotones will respond as droughts become more extreme in the future. To find out we used a large-scale, long-term mesocosm experiment spanning a wide gradient of drought intensity, from permanent flows to full streambed dewatering, and analysed terrestrial invertebrate community assembly after 1 year. Droughts that caused stream fragmentation gave rise to the most diverse terrestrial invertebrate assemblages, including 10 species with UK conservation designations, and high species turnover between experimental channels. Droughts that caused streambed dewatering produced lower terrestrial invertebrate richness, suggesting that the persistence of instream pools may benefit these taxa as well as aquatic biota. Particularly intense droughts may therefore yield relatively few 'winners' among either aquatic or terrestrial species, indicating that the threat to riverine biodiversity from future drought intensification could be more pervasive than widely acknowledged.

A One-Health environmental risk assessment of contaminants of emerging concern in London's waterways throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic had huge impacts on global urban populations, activity and health, yet little is known about attendant consequences for urban river ecosystems. We detected significant changes in occurrence and risks from contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in waterways across Greater London (UK) during the pandemic. We were able to rapidly identify and monitor large numbers of CECs in n = 390 samples across 2019-2021 using novel direct-injection liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry methods for scalable targeted analysis, suspect screening and prioritisation of CEC risks. A total of 10,029 measured environmental concentrations (MECs) were obtained for 66 unique CECs. Pharmaceutical MECs decreased during lockdown in 2020 in the R. Thames (p ≤ 0.001), but then increased significantly in 2021 (p ≤ 0.01). For the tributary rivers, the R. Lee, Beverley Brook, R. Wandle and R. Hogsmill were the most impacted, primarily via wastewater treatment plant effluent and combined sewer overflows. In the R. Hogsmill in particular, pharmaceutical MEC trends were generally correlated with NHS prescription statistics, likely reflecting limited wastewater dilution. Suspect screening of âˆ¼ 1,200 compounds tentatively identified 25 additional CECs at the five most impacted sites, including metabolites such as O-desmethylvenlafaxine, an EU Watch List compound. Lastly, risk quotients (RQs) ≥ 0.1 were calculated for 21 compounds across the whole Greater London freshwater catchment, of which seven were of medium risk (RQ ≥ 1.0) and three were in the high-risk category (RQ ≥ 10), including imidacloprid (RQ = 19.6), azithromycin (15.7) and diclofenac (10.5). This is the largest spatiotemporal dataset of its kind for any major capital city globally and the first for Greater London, representing âˆ¼ 16 % of the population of England, and delivering a foundational One-Health case study in the third largest city in Europe across a global pandemic.

Warming indirectly simplifies food webs through effects on apex predators.

Warming alters ecosystems through direct physiological effects on organisms and indirect effects via biotic interactions, but their relative impacts in the wild are unknown due to the difficulty in warming natural environments. Here we bridge this gap by embedding manipulative field experiments within a natural stream temperature gradient to test whether warming and apex fish predators have interactive effects on freshwater ecosystems. Fish exerted cascading effects on algal production and microbial decomposition via both green and brown pathways in the food web, but only under warming. Neither temperature nor the presence of fish altered food web structure alone, but connectance and mean trophic level declined as consumer species were lost when both drivers acted together. A mechanistic model indicates that this temperature-induced trophic cascade is determined primarily by altered interactions, which cautions against extrapolating the impacts of warming from reductionist approaches that do not consider the wider food web.

Genomic screening of 16 UK native bat species through conservationist networks uncovers coronaviruses with zoonotic potential.

There has been limited characterisation of bat-borne coronaviruses in Europe. Here, we screened for coronaviruses in 48 faecal samples from 16 of the 17 bat species breeding in the UK, collected through a bat rehabilitation and conservationist network. We recovered nine complete genomes, including two novel coronavirus species, across six bat species: four alphacoronaviruses, a MERS-related betacoronavirus, and four closely related sarbecoviruses. We demonstrate that at least one of these sarbecoviruses can bind and use the human ACE2 receptor for infecting human cells, albeit suboptimally. Additionally, the spike proteins of these sarbecoviruses possess an R-A-K-Q motif, which lies only one nucleotide mutation away from a furin cleavage site (FCS) that enhances infectivity in other coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. However, mutating this motif to an FCS does not enable spike cleavage. Overall, while UK sarbecoviruses would require further molecular adaptations to infect humans, their zoonotic risk warrants closer surveillance.

Local stressors mask the effects of warming in freshwater ecosystems.

Climate warming is a ubiquitous stressor in freshwater ecosystems, yet its interactive effects with other stressors are poorly understood. We address this knowledge gap by testing the ability of three contrasting null models to predict the joint impacts of warming and a range of other aquatic stressors using a new database of 296 experimental combinations. Despite concerns that stressors will interact to cause synergisms, we found that net impacts were usually best explained by the effect of the stronger stressor alone (the dominance null model), especially if this stressor was a local disturbance associated with human land use. Prediction accuracy depended on stressor identity and how asymmetric stressors were in the magnitude of their effects. These findings suggest we can effectively predict the impacts of multiple stressors by focusing on the stronger stressor, as habitat alteration, nutrients and contamination often override the biological consequences of higher temperatures in freshwater ecosystems.

Testing bats in rehabilitation for SARS-CoV-2 before release into the wild.

Several studies have suggested SARS-CoV-2 originated from a viral ancestor in bats, but whether transmission occurred directly or via an intermediary host to humans remains unknown. Concerns of spillover of SARS-CoV-2 into wild bat populations are hindering bat rehabilitation and conservation efforts in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Current protocols state that animals cared for by individuals who have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 cannot be released into the wild and must be isolated to reduce the risk of transmission to wild populations. Here, we propose a reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR)-based protocol for detection of SARS-CoV-2 in bats, using fecal sampling. Bats from the United Kingdom were tested following suspected exposure to SARS-CoV-2 and tested negative for the virus. With current UK and international legislation, the identification of SARS-CoV-2 infection in wild animals is becoming increasingly important, and protocols such as the one developed here will help improve understanding and mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 in the future.

Predicting catchment suitability for biodiversity at national scales.

Biomonitoring of water quality and catchment management are often disconnected, due to mismatching scales. Considerable effort and money are spent each year on routine reach-scale surveying across many sites, particularly in countries like the UK, where nationwide sampling has been conducted using standardised techniques for many decades. Most of these traditional freshwater biomonitoring schemes focus on pre-defined indicators of organic pollution to compare observed vs expected subsets of common macroinvertebrate indicator species. Other taxa, including many threatened species, are often ignored due to their rarity, as are many invasive species, which are seen as undesirable despite becoming increasingly common and widespread in freshwaters, especially in urban ecosystems. Both these types of taxa are often monitored separately for reasons related to biodiversity concerns rather than for gauging water quality. Repurposing such data could therefore provide important new biomonitoring tools that can help catchment managers to directly link the water quality they aim to control with the biodiversity they are trying to protect. Here we used extensive data held in the England Non-Native and Rare/Protected species records that track these two groups of species as a proof-of-concept for linking catchment scale management of freshwater ecosystems and biodiversity to a range of potential drivers across England. We used national land use (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology land cover map) and water quality indicator (Environment Agency water quality data archive) datasets to predict, at the catchment scale, the presence or absence of 48 focal threatened or invasive species of concern routinely sampled by the English Environment Agency, with a median accuracy of 0.81 area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A variety of water quality indicators and land-use types were useful in predictions, highlighting that future biomonitoring schemes could use such complementary measures to capture a wider spectrum of drivers and responses. In particular, the percentage of a catchment covered by freshwater was the single most important metric, reinforcing the need for space/habitat to support biodiversity, but we were also able to resolve a range of key environmental drivers for particular focal species. We show how our method could inform new catchment management approaches, by highlighting how key relationships can be identified and how to understand, visualise and prioritise catchments that are most suitable for restoration or water quality interventions. The scale of this work, in terms of number of species, drivers and locations, represents a significant step towards forging a new approach to catchment management that enables managers to link drivers they can control (water quality and land use) to the biota they are trying to protect (biodiversity).

Metabolic plasticity can amplify ecosystem responses to global warming.

Organisms have the capacity to alter their physiological response to warming through acclimation or adaptation, but the consequence of this metabolic plasticity for energy flow through food webs is currently unknown, and a generalisable framework does not exist for modelling its ecosystem-level effects. Here, using temperature-controlled experiments on stream invertebrates from a natural thermal gradient, we show that the ability of organisms to raise their metabolic rate following chronic exposure to warming decreases with increasing body size. Chronic exposure to higher temperatures also increases the acute thermal sensitivity of whole-organismal metabolic rate, independent of body size. A mathematical model parameterised with these findings shows that metabolic plasticity could account for 60% higher ecosystem energy flux with just +2 °C of warming than a traditional model based on ecological metabolic theory. This could explain why long-term warming amplifies ecosystem respiration rates through time in recent mesocosm experiments, and highlights the need to embed metabolic plasticity in predictive models of global warming impacts on ecosystems.

Systematic variation in food web body-size structure linked to external subsidies.

The relationship between body mass (M) and size class abundance (N) depicts patterns of community structure and energy flow through food webs. While the general assumption is that M and N scale linearly (on log-log axes), nonlinearity is regularly observed in natural systems, and is theorized to be driven by nonlinear scaling of trophic level (TL) with M resulting in the rapid transfer of energy to consumers in certain size classes. We tested this hypothesis with data from 31 stream food webs. We predicted that allochthonous subsidies higher in the web results in nonlinear M-TL relationships and systematic abundance peaks in macroinvertebrate and fish size classes (latter containing salmonids), that exploit terrestrial plant material and terrestrial invertebrates, respectively. Indeed, both M-N and M-TL significantly deviated from linear relationships and the observed curvature in M-TL scaling was inversely related to that observed in M-N relationships. Systemic peaks in M-N, and troughs in M-TL occurred in size classes dominated by generalist invertebrates, and brown trout. Our study reveals how allochthonous resources entering high in the web systematically shape community size structure and demonstrates the relevance of a generalized metabolic scaling model for understanding patterns of energy transfer in energetically 'open' food webs.

Warming impairs trophic transfer efficiency in a long-term field experiment.

In ecosystems, the efficiency of energy transfer from resources to consumers determines the biomass structure of food webs. As a general rule, about 10% of the energy produced in one trophic level makes it up to the next1-3. Recent theory suggests that this energy transfer could be further constrained if rising temperatures increase metabolic growth costs4, although experimental confirmation in whole ecosystems is lacking. Here we quantify nitrogen transfer efficiency-a proxy for overall energy transfer-in freshwater plankton in artificial ponds that have been exposed to seven years of experimental warming. We provide direct experimental evidence that, relative to ambient conditions, 4 °C of warming can decrease trophic transfer efficiency by up to 56%. In addition, the biomass of both phytoplankton and zooplankton was lower in the warmed ponds, which indicates major shifts in energy uptake, transformation and transfer5,6. These findings reconcile observed warming-driven changes in individual-level growth costs and in carbon-use efficiency across diverse taxa4,7-10 with increases in the ratio of total respiration to gross primary production at the ecosystem level11-13. Our results imply that an increasing proportion of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis will be lost to the atmosphere as the planet warms, impairing energy flux through food chains, which will have negative implications for larger consumers and for the functioning of entire ecosystems.

The Temporal Dynamics of Multiple Stressor Effects: From Individuals to Ecosystems.

Multiple stressors, such as warming and invasions, often occur together and have nonadditive effects. Most studies to date assume that stressors operate in perfect synchrony, but this will rarely be the case in reality. Stressor sequence and overlap will have implications for ecological memory - the ability of past stressors to influence future responses. Moreover, stressors are usually defined in an anthropocentric context: what we consider a short-term stressor, such as a flood, will span multiple generations of microbes. We argue that to predict responses to multiple stressors from individuals to the whole ecosystem, it is necessary to consider metabolic rates, which determine the timescales at which individuals operate and therefore, ultimately, the ecological memory at different levels of ecological organization.

Ecological plasticity governs ecosystem services in multilayer networks.

Agriculture is under pressure to achieve sustainable development goals for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Services in agro-ecosystems are typically driven by key species, and changes in the community composition and species abundance can have multifaceted effects. Assessment of individual services overlooks co-variance between different, but related, services coupled by a common group of species. This partial view ignores how effects propagate through an ecosystem. We conduct an analysis of 374 agricultural multilayer networks of two related services of weed seed regulation and gastropod mollusc predation delivered by carabid beetles. We found that weed seed regulation increased with the herbivore predation interaction frequency, computed from the network of trophic links between carabids and weed seeds in the herbivore layer. Weed seed regulation and herbivore interaction frequencies declined as the interaction frequencies between carabids and molluscs in the carnivore layer increased. This suggests that carabids can switch to gastropod predation with community change, and that link turnover rewires the herbivore and carnivore network layers affecting seed regulation. Our study reveals that ecosystem services are governed by ecological plasticity in structurally complex, multi-layer networks. Sustainable management therefore needs to go beyond the autecological approaches to ecosystem services that predominate, particularly in agriculture.

Consistent temperature dependence of functional response parameters and their use in predicting population abundance.

Global warming is one of the greatest threats to the persistence of populations: increased metabolic demands should strengthen pairwise species interactions, which could destabilize food webs at the higher organizational levels. Quantifying the temperature dependence of consumer-resource interactions is thus essential for predicting ecological responses to warming. We explored feeding interactions between different predator-prey pairs in controlled-temperature chambers and in a system of naturally heated streams. We found consistent temperature dependence of attack rates across experimental settings, though the magnitude and activation energy of attack rate were specific to each predator, which varied in mobility and foraging mode. We used these parameters along with metabolic rate measurements to estimate energetic efficiency and population abundance with warming. Energetic efficiency accurately estimated field abundance of a mobile predator that struggled to meet its metabolic demands, but was a poor predictor for a sedentary predator that operated well below its energetic limits. Temperature effects on population abundance may thus be strongly dependent on whether organisms are regulated by their own energy intake or interspecific interactions. Given the widespread use of functional response parameters in ecological modelling, reconciling outcomes from laboratory and field studies increases the confidence and precision with which we can predict warming impacts on natural systems.

Global patterns and drivers of ecosystem functioning in rivers and riparian zones.

River ecosystems receive and process vast quantities of terrestrial organic carbon, the fate of which depends strongly on microbial activity. Variation in and controls of processing rates, however, are poorly characterized at the global scale. In response, we used a peer-sourced research network and a highly standardized carbon processing assay to conduct a global-scale field experiment in greater than 1000 river and riparian sites. We found that Earth's biomes have distinct carbon processing signatures. Slow processing is evident across latitudes, whereas rapid rates are restricted to lower latitudes. Both the mean rate and variability decline with latitude, suggesting temperature constraints toward the poles and greater roles for other environmental drivers (e.g., nutrient loading) toward the equator. These results and data set the stage for unprecedented "next-generation biomonitoring" by establishing baselines to help quantify environmental impacts to the functioning of ecosystems at a global scale.

Ecological networks reveal resilience of agro-ecosystems to changes in farming management.

Sustainable management of ecosystems and growth in agricultural productivity is at the heart of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. New management regimes could revolutionize agricultural production, but require an evaluation of the risks and opportunities. Replacing existing conventional weed management with genetically modified, herbicide-tolerant (GMHT) crops, for example, might reduce herbicide applications and increase crop yields, but remains controversial owing to concerns about potential impacts on biodiversity. Until now, such new regimes have been assessed at the species or assemblage level, whereas higher-level ecological network effects remain largely unconsidered. Here, we conduct a large-scale network analysis of invertebrate communities across 502 UK farm sites to GMHT management in different crop types. We find that network-level properties were overwhelmingly shaped by crop type, whereas network structure and robustness were apparently unaltered by GMHT management. This suggests that taxon-specific effects reported previously did not escalate into higher-level systemic structural change in the wider agricultural ecosystem. Our study highlights current limitations of autecological assessments of effect in agriculture in which species interactions and potential compensatory effects are overlooked. We advocate adopting the more holistic system-level evaluations that we explore here, which complement existing assessments for meeting our future agricultural needs.

Extreme drought pushes stream invertebrate communities over functional thresholds.

Functional traits are increasingly being used to predict extinction risks and range shifts under long-term climate change scenarios, but have rarely been used to study vulnerability to extreme climatic events, such as supraseasonal droughts. In streams, drought intensification can cross thresholds of habitat loss, where marginal changes in environmental conditions trigger disproportionate biotic responses. However, these thresholds have been studied only from a structural perspective, and the existence of functional nonlinearity remains unknown. We explored trends in invertebrate community functional traits along a gradient of drought intensity, simulated over 18 months, using mesocosms analogous to lowland headwater streams. We modelled the responses of 16 traits based on a priori predictions of trait filtering by drought, and also examined the responses of trait profile groups (TPGs) identified via hierarchical cluster analysis. As responses to drought intensification were both linear and nonlinear, generalized additive models (GAMs) were chosen to model response curves, with the slopes of fitted splines used to detect functional thresholds during drought. Drought triggered significant responses in 12 (75%) of the a priori-selected traits. Behavioural traits describing movement (dispersal, locomotion) and diet were sensitive to moderate-intensity drought, as channels fragmented into isolated pools. By comparison, morphological and physiological traits showed little response until surface water was lost, at which point we observed sudden shifts in body size, respiration mode and thermal tolerance. Responses varied widely among TPGs, ranging from population collapses of non-aerial dispersers as channels fragmented to irruptions of small, eurythermic dietary generalists upon extreme dewatering. Our study demonstrates for the first time that relatively small changes in drought intensity can trigger disproportionately large functional shifts in stream communities, suggesting that traits-based approaches could be particularly useful for diagnosing catastrophic ecological responses to global change.