US Health Care Expenditures, GDP and Health Policy Reforms: Evidence from End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests.

This research investigates the over-time stability of the aggregate US healthcare expenditure (HCE)-GDP relationship, focusing on periods of healthcare reforms. The most consequential reforms-Medicaid/Medicare and the Affordable Care Act (ACA)-are challenging to study because they occur near the ends of the available data. Using annual national- and state-level data and a battery of structural break tests, we find the HCE-GDP relationship to be overwhelmingly stable. An ancillary analysis around the 2006 Massachusetts healthcare reform, which avoids the confounding effects of the Great Recession and the staggered rollout of the ACA, likewise finds no change.

Estimating the Learning Curve of a Novel Medical Device: Bipolar Sealer Use in Unilateral Total Knee Arthroplasties.

BACKGROUND: The use of cost-effectiveness analysis for medical devices has proven to be challenging because of the existence of the learning effects in the device-operator interactions. The need for the relevant analytical framework for assessing the economic value of such technologies has been recognized. OBJECTIVES: To present a modified difference-in-differences (DID) cost-effectiveness methodology that facilitates visualization of a new health technology's learning curve. METHODS: Using the Premier Perspective database (Premier Inc., Charlotte, NC), we examined the impact of physicians adopting a bipolar sealer (BPS) to control blood loss in primary unilateral total knee arthroplasties on hospital lengths of stay and total hospitalization costs when compared with two control groups. In our DID approach, we substituted month-from-adoption for the calendar-month-of-adoption in both graphical representations and ordinary least-squares regression results to estimate the effect of the BPS. RESULTS: The results clearly demonstrated a learning curve associated with the adoption of the BPS technology. Although the reductions in length of stay were immediate, the first postadoption year costs increased by $1335 (extrahospital controls) to $1565 (within-hospital controls). Importantly, and also consistent with a learning curve hypothesis, these initial higher costs were offset by subsequent cost savings in the second and third years postadoption. CONCLUSIONS: The presented modified DID approach is a suitable and versatile analytical tool for economic evaluation of a slowly diffusing medical device or health technology. It provides a better understanding of the potential learning effects associated with relevant interventions.

Opportunities to improve pain management outcomes in total knee replacements: patient-centered care across the continuum.

Despite the importance of pain management to each patient's overall experience with a total knee replacement, opportunities to improve pain care exist. The authors target an unnecessarily fragmented pain management trajectory as one cause of variability in pain outcomes. They propose that a technology-enhanced patient-centered pain management continuum running from the preoperative through the recovery phase offers effective and efficient pain management.

The oh-so straight and narrow path: can the health care expenditure curve be bent?

Although there is much talk about whether or not the current health care reform will 'bend' the health care expenditure 'curve', exactly which 'curve' is to be 'bent' is often ill-specified. This essay notes that the 'curve' defined by the log of US national health care expenditures per capita plotted against the log of the US gross domestic product per capita has been remarkably straight since 1929 despite Medicare and Medicaid and all of the more recent reform attempts. After establishing stationarity and considering cointegration and endogeneity, the slope of this log-log relationship suggests a per capita expenditure-income elasticity of 1.388. The authors suggest two explanatory hypotheses consistent with the observed constant slope. First, many new technologies are endogenous because their introduction is determined by their expected market, which is in turn dependent on GDP per capita. Second, the authors emphasize the potential utility gained by spending disproportionately larger proportions of our growing income on hope, uncertainty-reducing information, and consumer amenities, all of which may be independent of any improved health outcome.

The long-term outcomes and costs of diabetes mellitus among renal transplant recipients: tacrolimus versus cyclosporine.

Anti-rejection regimens for renal transplants have changed dramatically during the past 20 years, but there are few long-term studies relating cost, mortality, or graft failure simultaneously to disease-pharmacotherapy couplets. We analyzed US Renal Data System data on a matched-pair cohort of first, single organ kidney transplants from 1998 through 2002 over up to 5 years following transplantation for patients on tacrolimus or low-dose cyclosporine, stratifying by whether the recipient had pre-existing or new onset diabetes. Kaplan-Meier survival curves show mortality and survival differences associated with diabetes, but no additional incremental effects of immune suppression regimen. Significant cost increases are reported for patients receiving tacrolimus above and beyond the extra costs associated with diabetes.

Impact of substance abuse on access to renal transplantation.

BACKGROUND: With an ever-increasing demand for kidneys and limited supply pool, it is essential to understand the balance between utility and equity in transplant access. The goal of this project was to evaluate the association between recipient's substance abuse and renal transplant access in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS: We used data from the United States Renal Data System. The primary variables of interest were abuse of alcohol, tobacco, or illicit drugs based on information from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services form 2728. We analyzed three outcomes in Cox model: (1) being placed on the waiting list for renal transplantation or transplanted (whichever occurred first); (2) first transplant in patients who were placed on the waiting list; and (3) graft loss or mortality after transplant. In addition, we performed subgroup analysis based on age, race, sex, diabetic status, and donor type. RESULTS: We analyzed 1,077,699 patients (age of ESRD onset 62.9±15.5 years, 54.1% males, 64.2% white, and 29.7% African American). When compared with those with no substance abuse, abusing all three substances was associated with reduced transplant access (hazard ratio 0.39, P<0.001 for wait listing/transplant; hazard ratio 0.67, P=0.019 for transplant). This trend was similar in most subgroups studied. CONCLUSION: We demonstrated that patients with ESRD abusing or dependent on tobacco, alcohol, or illicit drugs are less likely to be placed on the waiting list for kidney transplant; and once on the list are less likely to be transplanted. The possible utility justifications for such disparity and potential interventions are discussed.

Cost-effectiveness of Medicare's coverage of immunosuppression medications for kidney transplant recipients.

Kidney transplantation is the preferred method of treating patients with end-stage renal disease. Transplantation improves the quality of life of the transplant recipient and also results in reduced treatment costs owing to the cost difference between dialysis and the post-transplant immunosuppression medications. Currently, the USA's Medicare program covers immunosuppression medications for 3 years post-transplant for nonelderly, nondisabled patients, and there is currently a proposal to extend this coverage from 3 years to a lifetime for all transplant recipients. Upon expiration of the current 3-year benefit, some patients are unable to afford to pay for the medication on their own, resulting in graft loss and a return to dialysis. This article reviews studies that documented the improvements in long-term transplant outcomes attributable to previous coverage extensions of immunosuppression medications, from both 1-3 years post-transplant for all transplant recipients in 1993 and the coverage extension from 3 years to lifetime for elderly and disabled patients in the year 2000. In addition, previous studies of the potential cost-effectiveness of a lifetime immunosuppression benefit for all patients are discussed.

Cost of lifetime immunosuppression coverage for kidney transplant recipients.

On January 1, 2000, Medicare extended the coverage of immunosuppression medications from 3 years to life for elderly and disabled kidney transplant recipients. This research estimates the impact of extending this lifetime coverage to all kidney transplant recipients on Medicare's cash flows. The study finds that extending coverage to all kidney transplant recipients would have increased Medicare's net cash outflows if the coverage were extended for patients of all income levels. There is evidence that extending coverage to only patients in the lowest income quartile could have resulted in a net cost savings to Medicare.

Economic impact of the beneficial effect of changing vascular anastomotic technique in hemodialysis access.

There is an urgent and compelling need to reduce the morbidity and expense of maintaining hemodialysis vascular access patency. We previously reported the beneficial effects of altering anastomotic technique on vascular access patency from a multicenter clinical trial. Interrupted anastomoses created with nonpenetrating clips showed significant improvement in primary, assisted primary, and secondary patencies of native vein fistulae (AVF) and synthetic arteriovenous grafts (AVG). In the current report, we provide an analysis of the economic impact of these procedures. The economic analysis is based on a subgroup of patients who underwent access procedures as outpatients during years 1998-1999 at a university-affiliated hospital that contributed 23% of procedures described in the multicenter clinical trial. Hospital charges and payments received were determined for fistula placement and for commonly performed surgical and endovascular procedures (thrombectomy and angioplasty) that maintain patency. Financial comparisons were based on the hospital's average accumulative charges and actual payments calculated on a daily basis. Cost curves were generated by using charge and payment data. Financial information was extrapolated to the entire study population to estimate the cost savings for the larger group. Both charge and payment calculations indicated financial benefit with the use of clips. When financial estimates were extrapolated to reflect the national volume, clip usage projected significant savings of $20 million for AVF and $30.8 million for AVG for every 1,000 days of access patency. Replacing conventional sutures with clips can reduce the morbidity and cost associated with maintaining permanent hemodialysis vascular accesses. This beneficial effect may be due to the biologic advantages of interrupted, nonpenetrating vascular anastomoses.

Renal graft survival and calcineurin inhibitor.

BACKGROUND: Tacrolimus is associated with fewer acute rejections than cyclosporine, but a greater risk of new onset diabetes mellitus. When compared to no tacrolimus among nondiabetics in a large patient registry, it is associated with improved graft survival. The current study used the same patient registry to compare more correctly graft survival between nondiabetic renal transplant recipients initially immunosuppressed with either of the two most frequently used calcineurin inhibitors, tacrolimus or modified cyclosporine (CsA). METHODS: We examined data provided by the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) on all first, single-organ, renal transplants to nondiabetic recipients that occurred during the years 1996 to 2000. Importantly, we then limited the study to patients on CsA (n = 7,867) or tacrolimus (n = 3,082) as the initial agent. Patients with both or neither were excluded. We used Cox proportional hazards regressions to estimate the tacrolimus-related relative risk of graft failure, controlling for other significant donor, recipient, and transplant characteristics RESULTS: We found that tacrolimus patients had graft failure rates equivalent to those of CsA patients (hazard ratio= 1.031, P = 0.631) CONCLUSIONS: Although tacrolimus is being used with increasing frequency, analyses of the USRDS data show no net advantage in the ultimate transplantation outcome, graft survival. Given the higher acquisition price of tacrolimus compared to CsA and the similar risk of graft failure, further studies should be conducted to define those patient groups for which tacrolimus might be cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of extending Medicare coverage of immunosuppressive medications to the life of a kidney transplant.

Unless they maintain Medicare status through disability or age, kidney transplant recipients lose their Medicare coverage of immunosuppression 3 years after transplantation. A significant transplant survival advantage has previously been demonstrated by the extension of Medicare immunosuppressive medication coverage from 1 year to 3 years, which occurred between 1993 and 1995. The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) was analyzed for recipients of kidney transplants from 1995 to 1999. Using a Markov model, we estimated survival and costs of the current system of 3-year coverage compared with lifetime immunosuppression coverage. Results were calculated from the perspectives of society and Medicare. Extension of immunosuppression coverage produced an expected improvement from 38.6% to 47.6% in graft survival and from 55.4% to 61.8% in patient survival. The annualized expected savings to society from lifetime coverage was $136 million assuming current rates of transplantation. Medicare would break-even compared with current coverage if the fraction of patients using extended coverage was <32%. The extension would be cost-effective to Medicare if this fraction was <91%. Extended Medicare immunosuppression coverage to the life of a kidney transplant should result in better transplant and economic outcomes, and should be considered by policy makers.

A multicenter study of permanent hemodialysis access patency: beneficial effect of clipped vascular anastomotic technique.

OBJECTIVE: There is an urgent and compelling need to reduce the morbidity and expense of maintaining hemodialysis vascular access patency. This large, long-term, retrospective, multicenter study, which compared access patency of autogenous arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) and synthetic bridge grafts (AVG) created with conventional sutures or nonpenetrating clips, was undertaken to resolve conflicting results from previous smaller studies. DESIGN: Patency data for 1385 vascular access anastomoses (clipped or sutured) was obtained from 17 hospitals and dialysis centers (Appendix). Five hundred eighteen AVF (242 clip, 276 suture) and 827 AVG (440 clip, 384 suture) were analyzed. Statistical comparisons were made with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, log-rank test, two-sample t test, and X(2) test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to confirm Kaplan-Meier analysis. RESULTS: Access patency (primary, secondary, overall, and intention to treat) was significantly improved in access anastomoses constructed with clips. In the intention-to-treat group, primary patency at 24 months was 0.54 for clipped AVF and 0.34 for sutured AVF, and was 0.36 for clipped AVG and 0.17 for sutured AVG. At 24 months, primary patency rate for AVF successfully used for dialysis was 0.67 for clips and 0.48 for sutures, and for AVG was 0.39 for clips and 0.19 for sutured constructs. Interventions necessary to maintain patency were significantly fewer in clipped anastomoses. CONCLUSION: Replacing conventional suture with clips significantly reduces morbidity associated with maintaining permanent hemodialysis vascular access. This beneficial effect may be due to the biologic superiority of interrupted, nonpenetrating vascular anastomoses.

Incidence and cost of new onset diabetes mellitus among U.S. wait-listed and transplanted renal allograft recipients.

This study sought to determine 1) the incidence and costs of new onset diabetes mellitus (NODM) associated with maintenance immunosuppression regimens following renal transplantation and 2) whether the mode of dialysis pretransplant or the type of calcineurin inhibition used for maintenance immunosuppression affected either the incidence or cost of NODM. The study examined the United States Renal Data System's clinical and financial records from 1994 to 1998 of all adult, first, single-organ, renal transplantations in either 1996 or 1997 with adequate financial records. It used the second diagnosis of diabetes in previously nondiabetic patients to identify NODM. While NODM had an incidence of approximately 6% per year among wait-listed dialysis patients, NODM over the first 2 years post-transplant had an incidence of almost 18% and 30% among patients receiving cyclosporine and tacrolimus, respectively. By 2 years post-transplant, Medicare paid an extra $21 500 per newly diabetic patient. We estimated the cost of diabetes attributable to maintenance immunosuppression regimens to be $2025 and $3308 for each tacrolimus patient and $1137 and $1611 for each cyclosporine patient at 1 and 2 years post-transplant, respectively.

Atención médica en Brasil durante un período de recesión económica / Health care in Brazil during economic recession

El examen de la financiacion de los servicios publicos de atención médica en Brasil durante un período de dificultades economicas causadas por la deuda externa, la inflacion y la recesion permite hacer diversas observaciones interesantes. El sistema brasileno de atención médica incluye el Instituto Nacional de Assistencia Medica de Previdencia Social (INAMPS), el cual presta servicios a las personas empleadas y a sus familias; los servicios del Ministerio de Salud en beneficio principalmente de los pobres y desempleados; los servicios de las administraciones locales y estatales; y los hospitales particulares y otros grupos del tipo de las Organizaciónes de Mantenimiento de la Salud que operan con fines lucrativos. En lo que respecta a los servicios de atención médica financiados con fondos federales, el INAMPS absorbio mas del 90 por ciento del total de las asignaciones presupuestarias del Ministerio de Salud y del INAMPS correspondientes a 1982. En cuanto a los presupuestos federales recientes, el presupuesto del INAMPS se mantuvo en el mismo nivel en relacion con el producto bruto domestico o interno bruto (PIB) durante el período de recesion 1981-1982; en cambio, el presupuesto del Ministerio de Salud aumento en un 23 por ciento en relacion con el PBI en 1982, despues de una serie de reducciones relativas en el período 1978-1981...