Genomic epidemiology reveals geographical clustering of multidrug-resistant Escherichia coli ST131 associated with bacteraemia in Wales.

Antibiotic resistance is a significant global public health concern. Uropathogenic Escherichia coli sequence type (ST)131, a widely prevalent multidrug-resistant clone, is frequently associated with bacteraemia. This study investigates third-generation cephalosporin resistance in bloodstream infections caused by E. coli ST131. From 2013-2014 blood culture surveillance in Wales, 142 E. coli ST131 genomes were studied alongside global data. All three major ST131 clades were represented across Wales, with clade C/H30 predominant (n = 102/142, 71.8%). Consistent with global findings, Welsh strains of clade C/H30 contain ß-lactamase genes from the blaCTX-M-1 group (n = 65/102, 63.7%), which confer resistance to third-generation cephalosporins. Most Welsh clade C/H30 genomes belonged to sub-clade C2/H30Rx (58.3%). A Wales-specific sub-lineage, named GB-WLS.C2, diverged around 1996-2000. An introduction to North Wales around 2002 led to a localised cluster by 2009, depicting limited genomic diversity within North Wales. This investigation emphasises the value of genomic epidemiology, allowing the detection of genetically similar strains in local areas, enabling targeted and timely public health interventions.

Clonal expansion and rapid characterization of Klebsiella pneumoniae ST1788, an otherwise uncommon strain spreading in Wales, UK.

A multidrug-resistant strain of Klebsiella pneumoniae (Kp) sequence type (ST) 1788, an otherwise uncommon ST worldwide, was isolated from 65 patients at 11 hospitals and 11 general practices across South and West Wales, UK, between February 2019 and November 2021. A collection of 97 Kp ST1788 isolates (including 94 from Wales) was analysed to investigate the diversity and spread across Wales and to identify molecular marker(s) to aid development of a strain-specific real-time PCR. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) was performed with Illumina technology and the data were used to perform phylogenetic analyses. Pan-genome analysis of further Kp genome collections was used to identify an ST1788-specific gene target; a real-time PCR was then validated against a panel of 314 strains and 218 broth-enriched screening samples. Low genomic diversity was demonstrated amongst the 94 isolates from Wales. Evidence of spread within and across healthcare facilities was found. A yersiniabactin locus and the KL2 capsular locus were identified in 85/94 (90.4 %) and 94/94 (100 %) genomes respectively; bla SHV-232, bla TEM-1, bla CTX-M-15 and bla OXA-1 were simultaneously carried by 86/94 (91.5 %) isolates; 4/94 (4.3 %) isolates also carried bla OXA-48 carbapenemase. Aminoglycoside and fluoroquinolone resistance markers were found in 94/94 (100 %) and 86/94 (91.5 %) isolates respectively. The ST1788-specific real-time PCR was 100 % sensitive and specific. Our analyses demonstrated recent clonal expansion and spread of Kp ST1788 in the community and across healthcare facilities in South and West Wales with isolates carrying well-defined antimicrobial resistance and virulence markers. An ST1788-specific marker was also identified, enabling rapid and reliable preliminary characterization of isolates by real-time PCR. This study confirms the utility of WGS in investigating novel strains and in aiding proactive implementation of molecular tools to assist infection control specialists.

Gut microbiology of UK care home residents: a cross-sectional analysis from a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence of potentially clinically relevant gut pathogens and associations with the carriage of resistant organisms in UK care home residents. METHODS: Stool samples were collected pre-randomisation from care home residents participating in a randomised placebo-controlled trial. Cultivable clinically relevant bacteria were analysed. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed by agar dilution (amoxicillin, co-amoxiclav, gentamicin, trimethoprim, nitrofurantoin, and ciprofloxacin). We also aimed to detect resistance to third-generation cephalosporins, carbapenems, and vancomycin. RESULTS: Stool samples were available for 159/310 residents participating in the trial (51%) from 23 care homes between 2016 and 2018. In total, 402 bacterial isolates were cultured from 158 stool samples and 29 different species were cultured. The five most common species were Escherichia coli (155/158, 98%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (40/158, 25%), Enterococcus faecalis (35/158, 22%), Enterococcus faecium (30/158, 19%), and Proteus mirabilis (25/158, 16%). Enterobacterales isolates were cultured from 157 samples (99%), and resistance to at least one of the tested antimicrobials was found in 119 of these (76%). There were high levels of variation in outcomes by care home. DISCUSSION: We demonstrated that care home residents harbour significant levels of antimicrobial-resistant organisms in their stool. This work emphasises the importance of both enhanced infection control practices and antimicrobial stewardship programmes to support the appropriate use of antimicrobials in this setting.

Perspectives of Statistician, Microbiologist, and Clinician Stakeholders on the Use of Microbiological Outcomes in Randomised Trials of Antimicrobial Stewardship Interventions.

Microbiological data are used as indicators of infection, for diagnosis, and the identification of antimicrobial resistance in trials of antimicrobial stewardship interventions. However, several problems have been identified in a recently conducted systematic review (e.g., inconsistency in reporting and oversimplified outcomes), which motivates the need to understand and improve the use of these data including analysis and reporting. We engaged key stakeholders including statisticians, clinicians from both primary and secondary care, and microbiologists. Discussions included issues identified in the systematic review and questions about the value of using microbiological data in clinical trials, perspectives on current microbiological outcomes reported in trials, and alternative statistical approaches to analyse these data. Various factors (such as unclear sample collection process, dichotomising or categorising complex microbiological data, and unclear methods of handling missing data) were identified that contributed to the low quality of the microbiological outcomes and the analysis of these outcomes in trials. Whilst not all of these factors would be easy to overcome, there is room for improvement and a need to encourage researchers to understand the impact of misusing these data. This paper discusses the experience and challenges of using microbiological outcomes in clinical trials.

Quality of MALDI-TOF mass spectra in routine diagnostics: results from an international external quality assessment including 36 laboratories from 12 countries using 47 challenging bacterial strains.

OBJECTIVES: Matrix assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry (MS) is a widely used method for bacterial species identification. Incomplete databases and mass spectral quality (MSQ) still represent major challenges. Important proxies for MSQ are the number of detected marker masses, reproducibility, and measurement precision. We aimed to assess MSQs across diagnostic laboratories and the potential of simple workflow adaptations to improve it. METHODS: For baseline MSQ assessment, 47 diverse bacterial strains, which are challenging to identify by MALDI-TOF MS, were routinely measured in 36 laboratories from 12 countries, and well-defined MSQ features were used. After an intervention consisting of detailed reported feedback and instructions on how to acquire MALDI-TOF mass spectra, measurements were repeated and MSQs were compared. RESULTS: At baseline, we observed heterogeneous MSQ between the devices, considering the median number of marker masses detected (range = [2-25]), reproducibility between technical replicates (range = [55%-86%]), and measurement error (range = [147 parts per million (ppm)-588 ppm]). As a general trend, the spectral quality was improved after the intervention for devices, which yielded low MSQs in the baseline assessment as follows: for four out of five devices with a high measurement error, the measurement precision was improved (p-values <0.001, paired Wilcoxon test); for six out of ten devices, which detected a low number of marker masses, the number of detected marker masses increased (p-values <0.001, paired Wilcoxon test). DISCUSSION: We have identified simple workflow adaptations, which, to some extent, improve MSQ of poorly performing devices and should be considered by laboratories yielding a low MSQ. Improving MALDI-TOF MSQ in routine diagnostics is essential for increasing the resolution of bacterial identification by MALDI-TOF MS, which is dependent on the reproducible detection of marker masses. The heterogeneity identified in this external quality assessment (EQA) requires further study.

Myocardial infarction and stroke subsequent to urinary tract infection (MISSOURI): protocol for a self-controlled case series using linked electronic health records.

INTRODUCTION: There is increasing interest in the relationship between acute infections and acute cardiovascular events. Most previous research has focused on understanding whether the risk of acute cardiovascular events increases following a respiratory tract infection. The relationship between urinary tract infections (UTIs) and acute cardiovascular events is less well studied. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine whether there is a causal relationship between UTI and acute myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will undertake a self-controlled case series study using linked anonymised general practice, hospital admission and microbiology data held within the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL) Databank. Self-controlled case series is a relatively novel study design where individuals act as their own controls, thereby inherently controlling for time-invariant confounders. Only individuals who experience an exposure and outcome of interest are included.We will identify individuals in the SAIL Databank who have a hospital admission record for acute MI or stroke during the study period of 2010-2020. Individuals will need to be aged 30-100 during the study period and be Welsh residents for inclusion. UTI will be identified using general practice, microbiology and hospital admissions data. We will calculate the incidence of MI and stroke in predefined risk periods following an UTI and in 'baseline' periods (without UTI exposure) and use conditional Poisson regression models to derive incidence rate ratios. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Data access, research permissions and approvals have been obtained from the SAIL independent Information Governance Review Panel, project number 0972. Findings will be disseminated through conferences, blogs, social media threads and peer-reviewed journals. Results will be of interest internationally to primary and secondary care clinicians who manage UTIs and may inform future clinical trials of preventative therapy.

A lipoglycopeptide antibiotic for Gram-positive biofilm-related infections.

Drug-resistant Gram-positive bacterial infections are still a substantial burden on the public health system, with two bacteria (Staphylococcus aureus and Streptococcus pneumoniae) accounting for over 1.5 million drug-resistant infections in the United States alone in 2017. In 2019, 250,000 deaths were attributed to these pathogens globally. We have developed a preclinical glycopeptide antibiotic, MCC5145, that has excellent potency (MIC90 ≤ 0.06 µg/ml) against hundreds of isolates of methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) and other Gram-positive bacteria, with a greater than 1000-fold margin over mammalian cell cytotoxicity values. The antibiotic has therapeutic in vivo efficacy when dosed subcutaneously in multiple murine models of established bacterial infections, including thigh infection with MRSA and blood septicemia with S. pneumoniae, as well as when dosed orally in an antibiotic-induced Clostridioides difficile infection model. MCC5145 exhibited reduced nephrotoxicity at microbiologically active doses in mice compared to vancomycin. MCC5145 also showed improved activity against biofilms compared to vancomycin, both in vitro and in vivo, and a low propensity to select for drug resistance. Characterization of drug action using a transposon library bioinformatic platform showed a mechanistic distinction from other glycopeptide antibiotics.

In silico identification of two peptides with antibacterial activity against multidrug-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.

Here we report two antimicrobial peptides (AMPs), HG2 and HG4 identified from a rumen microbiome metagenomic dataset, with activity against multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria, especially methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) strains, a major hospital and community-acquired pathogen. We employed the classifier model design to analyse, visualise, and interpret AMP activities. This approach allowed in silico discrimination of promising lead AMP candidates for experimental evaluation. The lead AMPs, HG2 and HG4, are fast-acting and show anti-biofilm and anti-inflammatory activities in vitro and demonstrated little toxicity to human primary cell lines. The peptides were effective in vivo within a Galleria mellonella model of MRSA USA300 infection. In terms of mechanism of action, HG2 and HG4 appear to interact with the cytoplasmic membrane of target cells and may inhibit other cellular processes, whilst preferentially binding to bacterial lipids over human cell lipids. Therefore, these AMPs may offer additional therapeutic templates for MDR bacterial infections.

Phenylalanyl tRNA synthetase (PheRS) substrate mimics: design, synthesis, molecular dynamics and antimicrobial evaluation.

Antimicrobial resistance is a very challenging medical issue and identifying novel antimicrobial targets is one of the means to overcome this challenge. Phenylalanyl tRNA synthetase (PheRS) is a promising antimicrobial target owing to its unique structure and the possibility of selectivity in the design of inhibitors. Sixteen novel benzimidazole based compounds (5a-b), (6a-e), (7a-d), (9a-e) and three N,N-dimethyl-7-deazapurine based compounds (16a-c) were designed to mimic the natural substrate of PheRS, phenylalanyl adenylate (Phe-AMP), that was examined through flexible alignment. The compounds were successfully synthesised chemically in two schemes using 4 to 6-steps synthetic pathways, and evaluated against a panel of five microorganisms with the best activity observed against Enterococcus faecalis. To further investigate the designed compounds, a homology model of E. faecalis PheRS was generated, and PheRS-ligand complexes obtained through computational docking. The PheRS-ligand complexes were subjected to molecular dynamics simulations and computational binding affinity studies. As a conclusion, and using data from the computational studies compound 9e, containing the (2-naphthyl)-l-alanine and benzimidazole moieties, was identified as optimal with respect to occupancy of the active site and binding interactions within the phenylalanine and adenosine binding pockets.

A systematic review investigating the use of microbiology outcome measures in randomized controlled trials evaluating antimicrobial stewardship interventions published between 2011 and 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Antimicrobial stewardship interventions (ASIs) aim to reduce the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. We sought to systematically evaluate how microbiological outcomes have been handled and analysed in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating ASIs. METHODS: We searched PubMed and Embase from 2011-21. Studies were selected if they were RCTs evaluating ASIs. A narrative synthesis approach was taken, identifying whether the study reported any microbiological data (bacterial genus/species; bacterial colony counts; prevalence of bacterial, microbiologically defined infections; and antibiotic susceptibility, measured pre-randomization or post-randomization in one arm only) or outcomes (post-randomization data compared between arms). Studies with or without microbiological data/outcomes were summarized in terms of study characteristics, methods of reporting and analysis of these outcomes. RESULTS: We identified 117 studies, with 34 (29.1%) collecting microbiological data and 18 (15.4%) reporting microbiological outcomes. Most studies with microbiological outcomes were conducted in secondary care (12/18, 66.7%) and targeted adult populations (14/18, 77.8%), and the intervention involved biomarker-guided rapid diagnostic testing (7/18, 38.9%). The overall quality of reporting and analysing microbiological outcomes was low and inconsistent. The selected study population in analyses and methods of handling missing data were unclear. CONCLUSIONS: This review demonstrates that the quality of handling and reporting microbiological outcomes in RCTs of ASIs was low. The lack of consistency and clarity made it difficult to compare the findings across studies, limiting policy- and clinical decision-making. Therefore, there is a clear need for the development of guidance for handling microbiological outcomes in RCTs and adopting appropriate methods to evaluate these data carefully.

Design, computational studies, synthesis and in vitro antimicrobial evaluation of benzimidazole based thio-oxadiazole and thio-thiadiazole analogues.

BACKGROUND: Two series of benzimidazole based thio-oxadiazole and thio-thiadiazole analogues were designed and synthesised as novel antimicrobial drugs through inhibition of phenylalanyl-tRNA synthetase (PheRS), which is a promising antimicrobial target. Compounds were designed to mimic the structural features of phenylalanyl adenylate (Phe-AMP) the PheRS natural substrate. METHODS: A 3D conformational alignment for the designed compounds and the PheRS natural substrate revealed a high level of conformational similarity, and a molecular docking study indicated the ability of the designed compounds to occupy both Phe-AMP binding pockets. A molecular dynamics (MD) simulation comparative study was performed to understand the binding interactions with PheRS from different bacterial microorganisms. The synthetic pathway of the designed compounds proceeded in five steps starting from benzimidazole. The fourteen synthesised compounds 5a-d, 6a-c, 8a-d and 9a-c were purified, fully characterised and obtained in high yield. RESULTS: In vitro antimicrobial evaluation against five bacterial strains showed a moderate activity of compound 8b with MIC value of 32 µg/mL against S. aureus, while all the synthesised compounds showed weak activity against both E. faecalis and P. aeruginosa (MIC 128 µg/mL). CONCLUSION: Compound 8b provides a lead compound for further structural development to obtain high affinity PheRS inhibitors.

Evaluation of Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing Methods for Burkholderia cenocepacia and Burkholderia multivorans Isolates from Cystic Fibrosis Patients.

The Burkholderia cepacia complex (BCC) is known for causing serious lung infections in people with cystic fibrosis (CF). These infections can require lung transplantation, eligibility for which may be guided by antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST). While the Clinical and Laboratory Standards Institute recommends AST for BCC, the European Committee on Antimicrobial Susceptibility Testing (EUCAST) does not, due to poor method performance and correlation with clinical outcomes. Furthermore, limited data exist on the performance of automated AST methods for BCC. To address these issues, reproducibility and accuracy were evaluated for disk diffusion (DD), broth microdilution (BMD), and MicroScan WalkAway using 50 B. cenocepacia and 50 B. multivorans isolates collected from people with CF. The following drugs were evaluated in triplicate: chloramphenicol (CAM), ceftazidime (CAZ), meropenem (MEM), trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (TMP-SMX), minocycline (MIN), levofloxacin (LVX), ciprofloxacin (CIP), and piperacillin-tazobactam (PIP-TAZ). BMD reproducibility was ≥ 95% for MEM and MIN only, and MicroScan WalkAway reproducibility was similar to BMD. DD reproducibility was < 90% for all drugs tested when a 3 mm cut-off was applied. When comparing the accuracy of DD to BMD, only MEM met all acceptance criteria. TMP-SMX and LVX had high minor errors, CAZ had unacceptable very major errors (VME), and MIN, PIP-TAZ, and CIP had both unacceptable minor errors and VMEs. For MicroScan WalkAway, no drugs met acceptance criteria. Analyses also showed that errors were not attributed to one species. In general, our data agree with EUCAST recommendations.

A prospective surveillance study to determine the prevalence of 16S rRNA methyltransferase-producing Gram-negative bacteria in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the prevalence of 16S rRNA methyltransferase- (16S RMTase-) producing Gram-negative bacteria in patients in the UK and to identify potential risk factors for their acquisition. METHODS: A 6 month prospective surveillance study was conducted from 1 May to 31 October 2016, wherein 14 hospital laboratories submitted Acinetobacter baumannii, Enterobacterales and Pseudomonas aeruginosa isolates that displayed high-level amikacin resistance according to their testing methods, e.g. no zone of inhibition with amikacin discs. Isolates were linked to patient travel history, medical care abroad, and previous antibiotic exposure using a surveillance questionnaire. In the reference laboratory, isolates confirmed to grow on Mueller-Hinton agar supplemented with 256 mg/L amikacin were screened by PCR for 16S RMTase genes armA, rmtA-rmtH and npmA, and carbapenemase genes (blaKPC, blaNDM, blaOXA-48-like and blaVIM). STs and total antibiotic resistance gene complement were determined via WGS. Prevalence was determined using denominators for each bacterial species provided by participating hospital laboratories. RESULTS: Eighty-four isolates (44.7%), among 188 submitted isolates, exhibited high-level amikacin resistance (MIC >256 mg/L), and 79 (94.0%) of these harboured 16S RMTase genes. armA (54.4%, 43/79) was the most common, followed by rmtB (17.7%, 14/79), rmtF (13.9%, 11/79), rmtC (12.7%, 10/79) and armA + rmtF (1.3%, 1/79). The overall period prevalence of 16S RMTase-producing Gram-negative bacteria was 0.1% (79/71 063). Potential risk factors identified through multivariate statistical analysis included being male and polymyxin use. CONCLUSIONS: The UK prevalence of 16S RMTase-producing Gram-negative bacteria is low, but continued surveillance is needed to monitor their spread and inform intervention strategies.

False amoxicillin/clavulanic acid susceptibility in Bacteroides fragilis using gradient strip tests.

BACKGROUND: Repeatedly, too low MIC results were obtained in Bacteroides fragilis quality assessment strains, using gradient strip tests with a ratio of amoxicillin:clavulanic acid of 2:1. We aimed to find the most accurate available gradient strip tests for susceptibility testing of amoxicillin/clavulanic acid in B. fragilis in comparison with agar dilution with EUCAST methodology and breakpoints. METHODS: Twenty-seven clinical B. fragilis isolates were investigated using gold standard EUCAST amoxicillin/clavulanic acid agar dilution (fixed clavulanic acid concentration at 2 mg/L, with increasing amoxicillin concentrations) as well as three commercial gradient strip tests: XL (ratio), AUG (ratio) or AMC (fixed concentration). RESULTS: Using agar dilution (fixed concentration), 19 isolates were susceptible, 1 isolate was susceptible increased exposure (I) and 7 isolates were resistant. Categorical agreement of the gradient strip tests with agar dilution (fixed concentration) was 70% for XL (ratio), 71% for AUG (ratio) and 89% for AMC (fixed concentration). Very major error rates in comparison with agar dilution (fixed concentration) were 100%, 0%, and 0%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: EUCAST breakpoint usage in amoxicillin/clavulanic acid susceptibility tests for B. fragilis should be accompanied by EUCAST methodology. When using alternative methods such as gradient strip tests, a higher degree of alignment with EUCAST methodology, such as using fixed clavulanic acid concentrations, improves precision.

Combination of the Probiotics Lacticaseibacillus rhamnosus GG and Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis, BB-12 Has Limited Effect on Biomarkers of Immunity and Inflammation in Older People Resident in Care Homes: Results From the Probiotics to Reduce Infections iN CarE home reSidentS Randomized, Controlled Trial.

Aging is associated with a decline in many components of the immune system (immunosenescence). Probiotics may improve the immune response in older people. The objective was to determine the effect of the combination of two probiotic organisms [Lacticaseibacillus (previously known as Lactobacillus) rhamnosus GG (LGG) and Bifidobacterium animalis subsp. lactis, BB-12 (BB-12)] on a range of immune biomarkers measured in the blood of older people resident in care homes in the UK. In a randomized controlled trial, older people [aged 67-97 (mean 86) years] resident in care homes received the combination of LGG+BB-12 (1.3-1.6 × 109 CFU per day) or placebo for up to 12 months. Full blood count, blood immune cell phenotypes, plasma immune mediator concentrations, phagocytosis, and blood culture responses to immune stimulation were all measured. Response to seasonal influenza vaccination was measured in a subset of participants. Paired samples (i.e., before and after intervention) were available for 30 participants per group. LGG and BB-12 were more likely to be present in feces in the probiotic group and were present at higher numbers. There was no significant effect of the probiotics on components of the full blood count, blood immune cell phenotypes, plasma immune mediator concentrations, phagocytosis by neutrophils and monocytes, and blood culture responses to immune stimulation. There was an indication that the probiotics improved the response to seasonal influenza vaccination with significantly (p = 0.04) higher seroconversion to the A/Michigan/2015 vaccine strain in the probiotic group than in the placebo group (47 vs. 15%).

Meningococcal carriage in periods of high and low invasive meningococcal disease incidence in the UK: comparison of UKMenCar1-4 cross-sectional survey results.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of invasive meningococcal disease in the UK decreased by approximately four times from 1999 to 2014, with reductions in serogroup C and serogroup B disease. Lower serogroup C invasive meningococcal disease incidence was attributable to implementation of the meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine in 1999, through direct and indirect protection, but no vaccine was implemented against serogroup B disease. UK Meningococcal Carriage surveys 1-3 (UKMenCar1-3), conducted in 1999, 2000, and 2001, were essential for understanding the impact of vaccination. To investigate the decline in invasive meningococcal disease incidence, we did a large oropharyngeal carriage survey in 2014-15, immediately before the changes to meningococcal vaccines in the UK national immunisation schedule. METHODS: UKMenCar4 was a cross-sectional survey in adolescents aged 15-19 years who were enrolled from schools and colleges geographically local to one of 11 UK sampling centres between Sept 1, 2014, and March 30, 2015. Participants provided an oropharyngeal swab sample and completed a questionnaire on risk factors for carriage, including social behaviours. Samples were cultured for putative Neisseria spp, which were characterised with serogrouping and whole-genome sequencing. Data from this study were compared with the results from the UKMenCar1-3 surveys (1999-2001). FINDINGS: From the 19 641 participants (11 332 female, 8242 male, 67 not stated) in UKMenCar4 with culturable swabs and completed risk-factor questionnaires, 1420 meningococci were isolated, with a carriage prevalence of 7·23% (95% CI 6·88-7·60). Carriage prevalence was substantially lower in UKMenCar4 than in the previous surveys: carriage prevalence was 16·6% (95% CI 15·89-17·22; 2306/13 901) in UKMenCar1 (1999), 17·6% (17·05-18·22; 2873/16 295) in UKMenCar2 (2000), and 18·7% (18·12-19·27; 3283/17 569) in UKMenCar3 (2001). Carriage prevalence was lower for all serogroups in UKMenCar4 than in UKMenCar1-3, except for serogroup Y, which was unchanged. The prevalence of carriage-promoting social behaviours decreased from 1999 to 2014-15, with individuals reporting regular cigarette smoking decreasing from 2932 (21·5%) of 13 650 to 2202 (11·2%) of 19 641, kissing in the past week from 6127 (44·8%) of 13 679 to 7320 (37·3%) of 19 641, and attendance at pubs and nightclubs in the past week from 8436 (62·1%) of 13 594 to 7662 (39·0%) of 19 641 (all p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: We show that meningococcal carriage prevalence in adolescents sampled nationally during a low incidence period (2014-15) was less than half of that in an equivalent population during a high incidence period (1999-2001). Disease and carriage caused by serogroup C was well controlled by ongoing vaccination. The prevalence of behaviours associated with carriage declined, suggesting that public health policies aimed at influencing behaviour might have further reduced disease. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, UK Department of Health, and National Institute for Health Research.

Clinical Features and C-Reactive Protein as Predictors of Bacterial Exacerbations of COPD.

Introduction: Identifying predictors of bacterial and viral pathogens in sputum from patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may help direct management. Methods: We used data from a trial evaluating a C-reactive protein (CRP) point of care guided approach to managing COPD exacerbations in primary care. We used regression analyses to identify baseline clinical features, including CRP value in those randomized to testing, associated with bacterial, viral or mixed infections, defined by the presence of bacterial and viral pathogens in sputum, detected by culture or polymerase chain reaction (PCR), respectively. Results: Of 386 participants with baseline sputum samples, 79 (20.5%), 123 (31.9%), and 91 (23.6%) had bacterial, viral/atypical, and mixed bacterial/viral/atypical pathogens identified, respectively. Increasing sputum purulence assessed by color chart was associated with increased odds of finding bacterial and mixed (bacterial and viral/atypical) pathogens in sputum (area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for bacterial pathogens =0.739 (95% CI: 0.670, 0.808)). Elevated CRP was associated with increased odds of finding bacterial pathogens and mixed pathogens but did not significantly increase the AUROC for predicting bacterial pathogens over sputum color alone (AUROC for combination of sputum color and CRP = 0.776 (95% CI: 0.708, 0.843), p for comparison of models = 0.053). We found no association between the presence of sputum pathogens and other clinical or demographic features. Conclusion: Sputum purulence was the best predictor of sputum bacterial pathogens and mixed bacterial viral/atypical pathogens in patients with COPD exacerbations in our study. Elevated CRP was associated with bacterial pathogens but did not add to the predictive value of sputum purulence.