Development and Validation of Clinical-Radiomics Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of Central Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: This investigation sought to create and verify a nomogram utilizing ultrasound radiomics and crucial clinical features to preoperatively identify central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients diagnosed with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). METHODS: We enrolled 1069 patients with PTC between January 2022 and January 2023. All patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 748) and a validation cohort (n = 321). We extracted 129 radiomics features from the original gray-scale ultrasound image. Then minimum Redundancy-Maximum Relevance and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression were used to select the CLNM-related features and calculate the radiomic signature. Incorporating the radiomic signature and clinical risk factors, a clinical-radiomics nomogram was constructed using multivariable logistic regression. The predictive performance of clinical-radiomics nomogram was evaluated by calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility in the training and validation cohorts. RESULTS: The clinical-radiomics nomogram which consisted of five predictors (age, tumor size, margin, lateral lymph node metastasis, and radiomics signature), showed good calibration and discrimination in both the training (AUC 0.960; 95% CI, 0.947-0.972) and the validation (AUC 0.925; 95% CI, 0.895-0.955) cohorts. Discrimination of the clinical-radiomics nomogram showed better discriminative ability than the clinical signature, radiomics signature, and conventional ultrasound model in both the training and validation cohorts. Decision curve analysis showed satisfactory clinical utility of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: The clinical-radiomics nomogram incorporating radiomic signature and key clinical features was efficacious in predicting CLNM in PTC patients.

Construction of a nomogram for central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer based on gender grouping.

BACKGROUND: The status of central lymph nodes is crucial for determining the surgical approach to papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Because of the differences between genders in central lymph node metastasis (CLNM), we aimed to construct separate predictive models for CLNM according to gender. METHODS: In our study, a total of 1258 PTC patients who underwent thyroid cancer surgery from September 2021 to March 2023 were analyzed retrospectively. The data were analysed univariately and multivariately using SPSS software grouped according to gender and nomograms of CLNM were plotted using R software. The variables included in this study were sex, Age, body mass index, Diabetes, chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis (CLT), Suspicious central lymph node (SCLN), A/T, Margin, Microcalcification (MC), BRAF, Number, Location, CLNM. RESULTS: The preoperative nomogram in male patients included four clinical variables: CLT, Margin, Number, Size. The preoperative nomogram of female patients included six clinical variables: Age, SCLN, Margin, MC, Number, Size. The calibration curves showed great agreement in both the training group and the validation group. The decision curve analysis showed the feasibility of nomogram in predicting CLNM in both man and woman. CONCLUSION: Based on the successful establishment of nomogram, we can analyze the variability of CLNM between male and female, which may provide clinicians with personalized clinical schemes in the treatment of PTC.

Prediction model of lymph node metastasis posterior to the right recurrent laryngeal nerve.

BACKGROUND: At present, it is still controversial whether lymph nodes posterior to the right recurrent laryngeal nerve (LN-prRLN) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients should be dissected. Failure to dissect metastatic lymph nodes results in continued metastasis from the positive lymph nodes to other regions. Our study aimed to establish a predictive model and predict the probability of metastasis of the lymph nodes posterior to the right recurrent laryngeal nerve (LNM-prRLN) in patients. METHODS: A total of 309 patients underwent surgery for thyroid cancer between May 2019 and September 2022. The risk factors were identified by univariate and multivariate analyses, and statistically significant risk factors identified in the multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. We used the calibration curve and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to verify the accuracy of the prediction model. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that irregular tumor margins (OR: 3.549, 95% CI 1.294-9.733, P = 0.014), extrathyroidal extension (OR: 4.507, 95% CI 1.694-11.993, P = 0.003), maximum tumor diameter > 1 cm (OR: 5.729, 95% CI 2.617-12.542, P < 0.001), overweight status (OR: 2.296, 95% CI 1.057-4.987, P = 0.036), high total cholesterol level (OR: 5.238, 95% CI 2.304-11.909, P < 0.001), and multifocality (OR: 11.954, 95% CI 5.233-27.305, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for LNM-prRLN. The area under the ROC curve was 0.927. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the predicted and observed rates of LNM-prRLN. CONCLUSION: The probability of LNM-prRLN could be predicted by a nomogram based on the statistically significant risk factors identified in the multivariate analysis. This nomogram can guide clinicians when preoperatively evaluating the status of the LN-prRLN with regard to LNM-prRLN in PTC patients. For patients at high risk for LNM-prRLN, the preventive dissection of LN-prRLNs can be considered.

Construction of prediction models for determining the risk of lateral lymph node metastasis in patients with thyroid papillary carcinoma based on gender stratification.

BACKGROUND: Lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) is associated with poor prognosis in patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). The purpose of this study was to determine the risk factors for LLNM and establish prediction models that could individually assessed the risk of LLNM. METHODS: A total of 619 PTC patients were retrospectively analyzed in our study. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed for male and female patients, respectively, to assess relationships between clinicopathological features and LLNM. By integrating independent predictors selected by binary logistic regression modeling, preoperative and postoperative nomograms were developed to estimate the risk of LLNM. RESULTS: LLNM was detected in 80 of 216 male patients. Of 403 female patients, 114 had LLNM. The preoperative nomogram of male patients included three clinical variables: the number of foci, tuner size, and echogenic foci. In addition to the above three variables, the postoperative nomogram of male patients included extrathyroidal extension (ETE) detected in surgery, central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and high-volume CLNM. The preoperative nomogram of female patients included the following variables: age, chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis (CLT), BRAF V600E, the number of foci, tumor size and echogenic foci. Variables such as CLT, BRAF V600E, the number of foci, tumor size, ETE detected in surgery, CLNM, high-volume CLNM and central lymph node ratio were included in the postoperative nomogram. Above Nomograms show good discrimination. CONCLUSIONS: Considering the difference in the incidence rate of LLNM between men and women, a separate prediction system should be established for patients of different genders. These nomograms are helpful in promoting the risk stratification of PTC treatment decision-making and postoperative management.

Influence of Obesity Parameters on Different Regional Patterns of Lymph Node Metastasis in Papillary Thyroid Cancer.

Objective: Obesity increases risk of thyroid cancer. However, the association between obesity and the progression of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) remains controversial. This retrospective study aimed to explore the relationship between obesity and regional patterns of lymph node metastasis (LNM) in PTC. Methods: We retrospectively reviewed data from 1015 patients with PTC. We calculated obese parameters, such as body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage (BFP), and body surface area (BSA). Logistic regression models were used to assess associations between obese parameters and the rate of lymph node metastasis (LNM), number of LNM, pattern of LNM, and lymph node ratio (LNR). Results: Higher BMI was not associated with different regional patterns of LNM in PTC. In men with PTC, high BFP was an independent predictor of total LNM, central lymph node metastasis (CLNM), total lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM), multiple lateral lymph node metastasis, and simultaneous metastasis in lateral compartment. In addition, male patients with high BFP had higher central LNR and higher number of CLNM. For women, high BSA was an independent predictor of LLNM and level IV metastasis. Female patients with high BSA had higher number of CLNM. Conclusion: BFP and BSA, possibly influenced by gender, were positively associated with the number and risk of LNM in different regions of PTC patients. However, BMI was not the predictor for aggressiveness of PTC in terms of LNM. Clinical decision-making for regional LNM in PTC patients should consider the factor of obesity.

A Nomogram Based on Clinical and Ultrasound Characteristics to Predict Central Lymph Node Metastasis of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

Background: The status of lymph nodes in the central compartment is crucial to determining the surgical strategies for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting central lymph node metastasis (CLNM). Methods: A total of 886 PTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy or lobectomy with central neck dissection (CND) from July 2019 to June 2020 were retrospectively retrieved. Clinical and ultrasound features were collected. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to determine risk factors of CLNM. A nomogram for predicting CLNM was developed, internal and external calibration was performed for the established model. Results: Variables (sex, chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis, tumor size, the number of foci, tumor location, margin) significantly associated with CLNM were included in the nomogram. The nomogram showed excellent calibration in the training group and validation group, with area under curves of 0.806 (95% CI, 0.771 to 0.825), and 0.799 (95% CI, 0.778-0.813) respectively. Conclusion: Through this accurate and easy-to-use nomogram, the possibility of CLNM can be objectively quantified preoperatively. Clinicians can use this nomogram to evaluate the status of lymph nodes in PTC patients and consider prophylactic CND for those with high scores.

Papillary Thyroid Microcarcinoma: A Nomogram Based on Clinical and Ultrasound Features to Improve the Prediction of Lymph Node Metastases in the Central Compartment.

Background: Accurate preoperative identification of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is essential for surgical protocol establishment for patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC). We aimed to develop a clinical and ultrasound characteristics-based nomogram for predicting CLNM. Methods: Our study included 399 patients who were pathologically diagnosed with PTMC between January 2011 and June 2018. Clinical and ultrasound features were collected for univariate and multivariate analyses to determine risk factors of CLNM. A nomogram comprising the prognostic model to predict the CLNM was established, and internal validation in the cohort was performed. The Cox regression model was used to determine the risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and cumulative hazard was calculated to predict prognosis. Results: Three variables of clinical and US features as potential predictors including sex (odd ratio [OR] = 1.888, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.160-3.075; P =0.011), tumor size (OR = 1.933, 95% CI, 1.250-2.990; P =0.003) and ETE (OR = 6.829, 95% CI, 3.250-14.350; P <0.001) were taken into account. The predictive nomogram was established by involving all the factors above used for preoperative prediction of CLNM in patients with PTMC. The nomogram showed excellent calibration in predicting CLNM, with area under curves (AUC) of 0.684 (95% CI, 0.635 to 0.774). Furthermore, tumor size, multifocality, presence of ETE, vascular invasion, and CLNM were the significant factors related to the RFS. Conclusion: Through this easy-to-use nomogram by combining clinical and US risk factor, the possibility of CLNM can be objectively quantified preoperatively. This prediction model may serve as a useful clinical tool to help clinicians determine an individual's risk of CLNM in PTMC, thus make individualized treatment plans accordingly.

Management of Clinically Solitary Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Patients According to Risk-Scoring Model for Contralateral Occult Carcinoma.

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate risk factors of occult carcinoma in clinically solitary papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients, and to put emphasis on the predictive value of risk-scoring model to determine the optimal scope of surgery. Methods: A total of 573 clinically solitary PTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy (TT) from two hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. Clinicopathological features were collected, univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine risk factors of occult carcinoma. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the risk factors of recurrence. A scoring model was constructed according to independent risk factors of contralateral occult carcinoma. Results: 19.2% of clinically solitary PTC patients had occult carcinoma, among which 3.7% patients had ipsilateral occult carcinoma and 15.5% patients had contralateral occult carcinoma. Factors such as male, the presence of benign nodule, and vascular invasion increase the risk of ipsilateral occult carcinoma. Tumor size >1 cm, the presence of benign nodule, extrathyroidal extension, central lymph node metastasis, lateral lymph node metastasis are independent predictors of contralateral occult carcinoma. Contralateral occult carcinoma is the independent predictor of recurrence. A 10-point risk-scoring model was established to predict the contralateral occult carcinoma in clinically solitary PTC patients. Conclusion: Lobectomy is sufficient for clinically solitary PTC patients with risk factors of ipsilateral occult carcinoma. For clinically solitary PTC patients with score ≥4, careful preoperative evaluations are required to rule out the contralateral occult carcinoma. Even if contralateral occult carcinoma is not detected preoperatively, TT is recommended for high-risk patients.

Influence of Tumor Number on Clinicopathologic Features and Outcomes of Patients With Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to investigate the significance of tumor number on clinicopathologic factors and outcomes of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 667 patients with PTC. We compared clinicopathologic features of patients with a different tumor number. Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze risk factors of recurrence. RESULTS: In papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC), the increase in the number of tumor foci was related to a higher risk of minimal extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and lymphovascular invasion (P < .05). Patients with PTMC with four or more foci had a significantly higher risk of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) and lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM) than patients with solitary tumors (P < .05). Patients with macro-PTC with four or more foci and with three foci had a higher risk of gross ETE and lymphovascular invasion than patients with solitary tumors (P < .05). The increase in the tumor number was related to a higher risk of CLNM in macro-PTC (P < .05). The number of foci was the independent predictor of recurrence in patients with macro-PTC (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: An increase in the number of tumors was associated with an increased risk of aggressive clinicopathologic features in PTMC and macro-PTC. The number of tumor foci could influence risk of recurrence in macro-PTC.