Identification of elderly patients at risk for 30-day readmission: Clinical insight beyond big data prediction.

AIM: This study explores the potential benefit of combining clinicians' risk assessments and the automated 30-day readmission prediction model. BACKGROUND: Automated readmission prediction models based on electronic health records are increasingly applied as part of prevention efforts, but their accuracy is moderate. METHODS: This prospective multisource study was based on self-reported surveys of clinicians and data from electronic health records. The survey was performed at 15 internal medicine wards of three general Clalit hospitals between May 2016 and June 2017. We examined the degree of concordance between the Preadmission Readmission Detection Model, clinicians' readmission risk classification and the likelihood of actual readmission. Decision trees were developed to classify patients by readmission risk. RESULTS: A total of 694 surveys were collected for 371 patients. The disagreement between clinicians' risk assessment and the model was 34.5% for nurses and 33.5% for physicians. The decision tree algorithms identified 22% and 9% (based on nurses and physicians, respectively) of the model's low-medium-risk patients as high risk (accuracy 0.8 and 0.76, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Combining the Readmission Model with clinical insight improves the ability to identify high-risk elderly patients. IMPLICATIONS FOR NURSING MANAGEMENT: This study provides algorithms for the decision-making process for selecting high-risk readmission patients based on nurses' evaluations.

Should patients treated with oral anti-coagulants be operated on within 48 h of hip fracture?

To investigate if patients treated with oral anticoagulants (OAC) have delayed surgical intervention (more than 48 h) compared to patients without OAC therapy, and if there is an impact to surgery timing on hospitalization length and mortality. A retrospective cohort study of all patients aged over 65 registered with a new diagnosis of hip fracture who underwent surgery in one of the general hospitals run by Clalit, Israel between 01/01/2014 and 31/12/2017. Data was retrieved for patient demographics, OAC treatment, and Charlson comorbidity index. 5828 patients were operated for hip fractures, mean age was 82.8 years (65-108), 4013 (68.8%) were female. 415 were treated with direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) (7.1%) and 311 with warfarin (5.3%) prior to their hospitalization. Patients taking OAC were less likely to be operated within 48 h from arrival to the hospital compared to patients not receiving OAC. The 30 day mortality was 4.2% among patients not receiving OAC, 6.0% among patients taking DOACs and 10.0% among patients receiving warfarin (p < 0.001). Adjusted odds ratio for mortality at 30 day among patients taking DOACs was similar to patients who didn't take OAC. (OR 1.0, CI 0.7, 1.6). The 30 day mortality rate of patients who were receiving OAC (either DOACs or warfarin) was not significantly different whether patients were operated within 48 h or not. Mortality rate was highest among patients taking warfarin. For patients who received DOACs, operation within 48 h wasn't associated with lower mortality rate. In these patients it seemed reasonable to adjust surgery time according to patients' characteristics and needs.

Preventing Hospital Readmissions: Healthcare Providers' Perspectives on "Impactibility" Beyond EHR 30-Day Readmission Risk Prediction.

BACKGROUND: Predictive models based on electronic health records (EHRs) are used to identify patients at high risk for 30-day hospital readmission. However, these models' ability to accurately detect who could benefit from inclusion in prevention interventions, also termed "perceived impactibility", has yet to be realized. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to explore healthcare providers' perspectives of patient characteristics associated with decisions about which patients should be referred to readmission prevention programs (RPPs) beyond the EHR preadmission readmission detection model (PREADM). DESIGN: This cross-sectional study employed a multi-source mixed-method design, combining EHR data with nurses' and physicians' self-reported surveys from 15 internal medicine units in three general hospitals in Israel between May 2016 and June 2017, using a mini-Delphi approach. PARTICIPANTS: Nurses and physicians were asked to provide information about patients 65 years or older who were hospitalized at least one night. MAIN MEASURES: We performed a decision-tree analysis to identify characteristics for consideration when deciding whether a patient should be included in an RPP. KEY RESULTS: We collected 817 questionnaires on 435 patients. PREADM score and RPP inclusion were congruent in 65% of patients, whereas 19% had a high PREADM score but were not referred to an RPP, and 16% had a low-medium PREADM score but were referred to an RPP. The decision-tree analysis identified five patient characteristics that were statistically associated with RPP referral: high PREADM score, eligibility for a nursing home, having a condition not under control, need for social-services support, and need for special equipment at home. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides empirical evidence for the partial congruence between classifications of a high PREADM score and perceived impactibility. Findings emphasize the need for additional research to understand the extent to which combining EHR data with provider insights leads to better selection of patients for RPP inclusion.

Conversion from Prediabetes to Diabetes in Individuals with Obesity, 5-Years Post-Band, Sleeve, and Gastric Bypass Surgeries.

BACKGROUND: Identifying risk factors for conversion to diabetes among individuals with obesity and prediabetes is important for preventing diabetes. PURPOSE: We assessed conversion rates to diabetes 5 years after three types of metabolic surgery and examined predictors of diabetes development. METHODS: We accessed data of individuals with prediabetes, defined as fasting glucose (FG) 100-125 mg/dL (5.6-6.9 mmol/L) or HbA1c 5.7-6.4% at baseline (preoperatively), who underwent metabolic surgeries in Clalit Health Services during 2002-2011. RESULTS: Of 1,756 individuals with prediabetes, 819 underwent gastric banding (GB), 845 sleeve gastrectomy (SG), and 92 Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). Mean age was 41.6 years and 73.5% were women. Five years post-surgery, 177 (10.1%) had developed diabetes. Conversion rates by type of surgery were 14.4%, 6.3%, and 6.5% for GB, SG, and RYGB, respectively (p < 0.001). Conversion was more rapid following GB than SG or RYGB (χ2(2) = 29.67, p < 0.005). In a multiple-logistic-regression model, predictors of diabetes development 5 years postoperatively were (1) weight loss during the first postoperative year and (2) preoperative levels of both FG and HbA1c within the prediabetes range. Baseline weight, age, and sex, were not associated with conversion to diabetes. Conversion rates were lower (4.7%) five years postoperatively for patients who lost > 25% of their baseline weight, compared to those who lost less than 15% of their weight during the first postoperative year: (14.0% < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings emphasize the importance of preoperative glycemic control and weight loss during the first year postoperatively, for the long-term prevention of diabetes in patients with prediabetes undergoing metabolic surgery.

Prediction of Long-Term Diabetes Remission After RYGB, Sleeve Gastrectomy, and Adjustable Gastric Banding Using DiaRem and Advanced-DiaRem Scores.

PURPOSE: DiaRem is a clinical scoring system designed to predict diabetes remission (DR) 1-year post-Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). We examined long-term (2- and 5-year) postoperative DR prediction by DiaRem and an advanced-DiaRem (Ad-DiaRem) score following RYGB, sleeve gastrectomy (SG), and gastric banding (GB). METHODS: We accessed data from a computerized database of persons with type 2 diabetes and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 who underwent RYGB, SG, or GB, and determined DR status 2- and 5-year postoperative according to preoperative DiaRem and the Ad-DiaRem calculated scores. RESULTS: Among 1459 patients with 5-year postoperative diabetes status data, 53.6% exhibited DR. For RYGB, Ad-DiaRem trended to exhibit mildly improved predictive capacity 5-year postoperatively compared to DiaRem: Areas under receiver operating characteristic [AUROC] curves were 0.85 (0.76-0.93) and 0.78 (0.69-0.88), respectively. The positive predictive values (PPVs) detecting > 80% of those achieving DR (i.e., sensitivity ≥ 0.8) were 78.2% and 73.2%, respectively, and higher Ad-DiaRem scores more consistently associated with decreased DR rates. Following SG, both scores had an AUROC of 0.82, but Ad-DiaRem still had a higher PPV for predicting > 80% of those with 5-year postoperative DR (76.2% and 71.0%). Predictive capacity parameters were comparatively lower, for both scores, when considering DR 5-year post-GB (AUROC: 0.73 for both scores, PPV: 66.3% and 64.3%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Ad-DiaRem provides modest improvement compared to DiaRem in predicting long-term DR 5-years post-RYGB. Both scores similarly provide fair predictive capacity for 5-year postoperative DR after SG.

What can we learn from simulation-based training to improve skills for end-of-life care? Insights from a national project in Israel.

BACKGROUND: Simulation-based training improves residents' skills for end-of-life (EOL) care. In the field, staff providers play a significant role in handling those situations and in shaping practice by role modeling. We initiated an educational intervention to train healthcare providers for improved communication skills at EOL using simulation of sensitive encounters with patients and families. METHODS: Hospital physicians and nurses (n = 1324) attended simulation-based workshops (n = 100) in a national project to improve EOL care. We analyzed perceptions emerging from group discussions following simulations, from questionnaires before and after each workshop, and from video-recorded simulations using a validated coding system. We used the simulation setting as a novel tool for action research. We used a participatory inquiry paradigm, with repetitive cycles of exploring barriers and challenges with participants in an iterative pattern of observation, discussion and reflection - including a description of our own responses and evolution of thought as well as system effects. RESULTS: The themes transpiring included lack of training, knowledge and time, technology overuse, uncertainty in decision-making, poor skills for communication and teamwork. Specific scenarios demonstrated lack of experience at eliciting preferences for EOL care and at handling conflicts or dilemmas. Content analysis of simulations showed predominance of cognitive utterances - by an order of magnitude more prevalent than emotional expressions. Providers talked more than actors did and episodes of silence were rare. Workshop participants acknowledged needs to improve listening skills, attention to affect and teamwork. They felt that the simulation-based workshop is likely to ameliorate future handling of EOL situations. We observed unanticipated consequences from our project manifested as a field study of preparedness to EOL in nursing homes, followed by a national survey on quality of care, leading to expansion of palliative care services and demand for EOL care education in various frameworks and professional areas. CONCLUSIONS: Reflective simulation exercises show barriers and paths to improvement among staff providers. When facing EOL situations, physicians and nurses use cognitive language far more often than emotions related expressions, active listening, or presence in silence. Training a critical mass of staff providers may be valuable to induce a cultural shift in EOL care.

Long-Term Outcomes of Three Types of Bariatric Surgery on Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes Control and Remission.

BACKGROUND: Different bariatric surgeries have demonstrated different effectiveness for weight loss and glucose control in obese persons with diabetes, over a short follow-up time. The aim of this study was to compare weight loss, glucose control, and diabetes remission in individuals with type 2 diabetes, after three types of bariatric surgery: gastric banding (GB), sleeve gastrectomy (SG), and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), with 5 years follow-up. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted on bariatric surgeries performed during 2002-2011 in a large nationwide healthcare organization. RESULTS: Of 2190 patients, 64.8 % were women. The operations performed were 1027 GB, 1023 SG, and 140 RYGB. Mean BMI ± SD at baseline, 1 year postoperatively, and 5 years postoperatively were 43.5 ± 6.18, 37.1 ± 6.35, and 35.5 ± 6.48 for GB; 43.6 ± 6.42, 34.4 ± 6.08, and 35.3 ± 6.7 for SG; and 42.8 ± 5.81, 32.8 ± 4.9, and 34.1 ± 5.09 for RYGB. Mean HbA1c ± SD at baseline, 1 year postoperatively, and 5 years postoperatively were 7.6 + 1.58, 6.5 + 1.22, and 6.8 + 1.48 for GB; 7.7 + 1.63, 6.4 + 1.18, and 6.7 + 1.57 for SG; and 8.0 + 1.78, 6.3 + 0.98, and 7.04 + 1.42 for RYGB. At 1 year follow-up, 53.2 % had achieved remission; at 5 years, 54.4 %. Remission rates at 5 years were similar for the three surgeries. Five-year remission was inversely associated with baseline HbA1c and with treatment with insulin at baseline and positively associated with BMI. CONCLUSIONS: For all three surgeries, diabetes remission was higher than the baseline after 5 years; mean BMI and HbA1c decreased considerably during the first year postoperatively and remained lower than basal values throughout follow-up. Early improvements were greatest for RYGB, though the advantage over the other operations diminished with time.