RESUMO
PURPOSE: This study evaluates the performance of a multitrait polygenic risk score (PRS) in an independent cohort to predict incident or progression of keratoconus. DESIGN: Prospective cross-sectional and cohort study METHODS: Setting: Single-center; Study population: 1478 community-based young adults (18-30 years; 51% female), including 609 (52% female) who returned for an 8-year follow-up; Observation procedures: Scheimpflug imaging (Pentacam, Oculus), genotyping and development of a multitrait PRS previously validated to predict keratoconus in older adults.; Main outcome measure: Belin/AmbrÏsio enhanced ectasia display (BAD-D) score and keratoconus, defined as BAD-D ≥2.6, were each analyzed against the PRS using linear and logistic regression, respectively. RESULTS: Prevalence of keratoconus was 2.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.9-3.6) in the cross-sectional cohort. Each z-score increase in PRS was associated with worse BAD-D z-score by 0.13 (95%CI = 0.08-0.18) and 1.6 increased odds of keratoconus. The 8-year keratoconus incidence was 2.6% (95%CI = 1.3-4.0). Participants in the highest PRS decile were more likely to have incident keratoconus compared to the rest of the cohort (odds ratio = 3.85, 95%CI = 1.21-12.22). For each z-score increase in PRS, 8-year change in BAD-D z-score worsened by 0.11 (95%CI = 0.04-0.17). CONCLUSIONS: A PRS for keratoconus could be useful in predicting incident keratoconus and progression, demonstrating its potential utility in clinical settings to identify patients at high risk of postsurgery ectasia or those who may benefit most from keratoconus intervention.