Health-Oriented Emission Control Strategy of Energy Utilization and Its Co-CO2 Benefits: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta, China.

Reducing air pollutants and CO2 emissions from energy utilization is crucial for achieving the dual objectives of clean air and carbon neutrality in China. Thus, an optimized health-oriented strategy is urgently needed. Herein, by coupling a CO2 and air pollutants emission inventory with response surface models for PM2.5-associated mortality, we shed light on the effectiveness of protecting human health and co-CO2 benefit from reducing fuel-related emissions and generate a health-oriented strategy for the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). Results reveal that oil consumption is the primary contributor to fuel-related PM2.5 pollution and premature deaths in the YRD. Significantly, curtailing fuel consumption in transportation is the most effective measure to alleviate the fuel-related PM2.5 health impact, which also has the greatest cobenefits for CO2 emission reduction on a regional scale. Reducing fuel consumption will achieve substantial health improvements especially in eastern YRD, with nonroad vehicle emission reductions being particularly impactful for health protection, while on-road vehicles present the greatest potential for CO2 reductions. Scenario analysis confirms the importance of mitigating oil consumption in the transportation sector in addressing PM2.5 pollution and climate change.

Spatially and Temporally Differentiated NOx and VOCs Emission Abatement Could Effectively Gain O3-Related Health Benefits.

The increasing level of O3 pollution in China significantly exacerbates the long-term O3 health damage, and an optimized health-oriented strategy for NOx and VOCs emission abatement is needed. Here, we developed an integrated evaluation and optimization system for the O3 control strategy by merging a response surface model for the O3-related mortality and an optimization module. Applying this system to the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), we evaluated driving factors for mortality changes from 2013 to 2017, quantified spatial and temporal O3-related mortality responses to precursor emission abatement, and optimized a health-oriented control strategy. Results indicate that insufficient NOx emission abatement combined with deficient VOCs control from 2013 to 2017 aggravated O3-related mortality, particularly during spring and autumn. Northern YRD should promote VOCs control due to higher VOC-limited characteristics, whereas fastening NOx emission abatement is more favorable in southern YRD. Moreover, promotion of NOx mitigation in late spring and summer and facilitating VOCs control in spring and autumn could further reduce O3-related mortality by nearly 10% compared to the control strategy without seasonal differences. These findings highlight that a spatially and temporally differentiated NOx and VOCs emission control strategy could gain more O3-related health benefits, offering valuable insights to regions with severe ozone pollution all over the world.

Fostering a Holistic Understanding of the Full Volatility Spectrum of Organic Compounds from Benzene Series Precursors through Mechanistic Modeling.

A comprehensive understanding of the full volatility spectrum of organic oxidation products from the benzene series precursors is important to quantify the air quality and climate effects of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and new particle formation (NPF). However, current models fail to capture the full volatility spectrum due to the absence of important reaction pathways. Here, we develop a novel unified model framework, the integrated two-dimensional volatility basis set (I2D-VBS), to simulate the full volatility spectrum of products from benzene series precursors by simultaneously representing first-generational oxidation, multigenerational aging, autoxidation, dimerization, nitrate formation, etc. The model successfully reproduces the volatility and O/C distributions of oxygenated organic molecules (OOMs) as well as the concentrations and the O/C of SOA over wide-ranging experimental conditions. In typical urban environments, autoxidation and multigenerational oxidation are the two main pathways for the formation of OOMs and SOA with similar contributions, but autoxidation contributes more to low-volatility products. NOx can reduce about two-thirds of OOMs and SOA, and most of the extremely low-volatility products compared to clean conditions, by suppressing dimerization and autoxidation. The I2D-VBS facilitates a holistic understanding of full volatility product formation, which helps fill the large gap in the predictions of organic NPF, particle growth, and SOA formation.

Unpacking the factors contributing to changes in PM2.5-associated mortality in China from 2013 to 2019.

From 2013 to 2019, a series of air pollution control actions significantly reduced PM2.5 pollution in China. Control actions included changes in activity levels, structural adjustment (SA) policy, energy and material saving (EMS) policy, and end-of-pipe (EOP) control in several sources, which have not been systematically studied in previous studies. Here, we integrate an emission inventory, a chemical transport model, a health impact assessment model, and a scenario analysis to quantify the contribution of each control action across a range of major emission sources to the changes in PM2.5 concentrations and associated mortality in China from 2013 to 2019. Assuming equal toxicity of PM2.5 from all the sources, we estimate that PM2.5-related mortality decreased from 2.52 (95 % confidence interval, 2.13-2.88) to 1.94 (1.62-2.24) million deaths. Anthropogenic emission reductions and declining baseline incidence rates significantly contributed to health benefits, but population aging partially offset their impact. Among the major sources, controls on power plants and industrial boilers were responsible for the highest reduction in PM2.5-related mortality (∼80 %), followed by industrial processes (∼40 %), residential combustion (∼40 %), and transportation (∼30 %). However, considering the potentially higher relative risks of power plant PM2.5, the adverse effects avoided by their control could be ∼2.4 times the current estimation. Our power plant sensitivity analyses indicate that future estimates of source-specific PM2.5 health effects should incorporate variations in individual source PM2.5 effect coefficients when available. As for the control actions, while activity levels increased for most sources, SA policy significantly reduced the emissions in residential combustion and industrial boilers, and EOP control dominated the contribution in health benefits in most sources except residential combustion. Considering the emission reduction potential by source and control actions in 2019, our results suggest that promoting clean energy in residential combustion and enforcing more stringent EOP control in the iron and steel industry should be prioritized in the future.

Response of organic aerosol in Beijing to emission reductions during the XXIV Olympic Winter Games.

Organic aerosol (OA) serves as a crucial component of fine particulate matter. However, the response of OA to changes in anthropogenic emissions remains unclear due to its complexity. The XXIV Olympic Winter Games (OWG) provided real atmospheric experimental conditions on studying the response of OA to substantial emission reductions in winter. Here, we explored the sources and variations of OA based on the observation of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) combined with positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis in urban Beijing during the 2022 Olympic Winter Games. The influences of meteorological conditions on OA concentrations were corrected by CO and verified by deweathered model. The CO-normalized primary OA (POA) concentrations from traffic, cooking, coal and biomass burning during the OWG decreased by 39.8 %, 23.2 % and 65.0 %, respectively. Measures controlling coal and biomass burning were most effective in reducing POA during the OWG. For the CO-normalized concentration of secondary OA (SOA), aqueous-phase related oxygenated OA decreased by 51.8 % due to the lower relative humidity and emission reduction in precursors, while the less oxidized­oxygenated OA even slightly increased as the enhanced atmospheric oxidation processes may partially offset the efficacy of emission control. Therefore, more targeted reduction of organic precursors shall be enhanced to lower atmospheric oxidation capacity and mitigate SOA pollution.

The development of local ambient air quality standards: A case study of Hainan Province, China.

The ambient air quality standard (AAQS) is a vital policy instrument for protecting the environment and human health. Hainan Province is at the forefront of China's efforts to protect its ecological environment, with an official goal to achieve world-leading air quality by 2035. However, neither the national AAQS nor the World Health Organization guideline offers sufficient guidance for improving air quality in Hainan because Hainan has well met the former while the latter is excessively stringent. Consequently, the establishment of Hainan's local AAQS becomes imperative. Nonetheless, research regarding the development of local AAQS is scarce, especially in comparatively more polluted countries such as China. The relatively high background values and significant interannual fluctuations in air pollutant concentrations in Hainan present challenges in the development of local AAQS. Our research proposes a world-class local AAQS of Hainan Province by reviewing the AAQS in major countries or regions worldwide, analyzing the influence of different statistical forms, and carefully evaluating the attainability of the standard. In the proposed AAQS, the annual mean concentration limit for PM2.5, the annual 95th percentile of daily maximum 8-h mean (MDA8) concentration limit for O3, and the peak season concentration limit for O3 are set at 10, 120, and 85 µg/m3, respectively. Our study indicates that, with effective control policies, Hainan is projected to achieve compliance with the new standard by 2035. The implementation of the local AAQS is estimated to avoid 1,526 (1,253-1,789) and 259 (132-501) premature deaths attributable to long-term exposure to PM2.5 and O3 in Hainan in 2035, respectively.

Modeling the Formation of Organic Compounds across Full Volatility Ranges and Their Contribution to Nanoparticle Growth in a Polluted Atmosphere.

Nanoparticle growth influences atmospheric particles' climatic effects, and it is largely driven by low-volatility organic vapors. However, the magnitude and mechanism of organics' contribution to nanoparticle growth in polluted environments remain unclear because current observations and models cannot capture organics across full volatility ranges or track their formation chemistry. Here, we develop a mechanistic model that characterizes the full volatility spectrum of organic vapors and their contributions to nanoparticle growth by coupling advanced organic oxidation modeling and kinetic gas-particle partitioning. The model is applied to Nanjing, a typical polluted city, and it effectively captures the volatility distribution of low-volatility organics (with saturation vapor concentrations <0.3 µg/m3), thus accurately reproducing growth rates (GRs), with a 4.91% normalized mean bias. Simulations indicate that as particles grow from 4 to 40 nm, the relative fractions of GRs attributable to organics increase from 59 to 86%, with the remaining contribution from H2SO4 and its clusters. Aromatics contribute much to condensable organic vapors (∼37%), especially low-volatility vapors (∼61%), thus contributing the most to GRs (32-46%) as 4-40 nm particles grow. Alkanes also contribute 19-35% of GRs, while biogenic volatile organic compounds contribute minimally (<13%). Our model helps assess the climatic impacts of particles and predict future changes.