Tractable limitations of current polygenic scores do not excuse genetically confounded social science.

Burt's critique of using polygenic scores in social science conflates the "scientific costs" of sociogenomics with "sociopolitical and ethical" concerns. Furthermore, she paradoxically enlists recent advances in controlling for environmental confounding to argue such confounding is scientifically "intractable." Disinterested social scientists should support ongoing efforts to improve this technology rather than obstructing progress and excusing genetically confounded research.

Cross-trait assortative mating is widespread and inflates genetic correlation estimates.

The observation of genetic correlations between disparate human traits has been interpreted as evidence of widespread pleiotropy. Here, we introduce cross-trait assortative mating (xAM) as an alternative explanation. We observe that xAM affects many phenotypes and that phenotypic cross-mate correlation estimates are strongly associated with genetic correlation estimates (R2=74%). We demonstrate that existing xAM plausibly accounts for substantial fractions of genetic correlation estimates and that previously reported genetic correlation estimates between some pairs of psychiatric disorders are congruent with xAM alone. Finally, we provide evidence for a history of xAM at the genetic level using cross-trait even/odd chromosome polygenic score correlations. Together, our results demonstrate that previous reports have likely overestimated the true genetic similarity between many phenotypes.

Mendelian imputation of parental genotypes improves estimates of direct genetic effects.

Effects estimated by genome-wide association studies (GWASs) include effects of alleles in an individual on that individual (direct genetic effects), indirect genetic effects (for example, effects of alleles in parents on offspring through the environment) and bias from confounding. Within-family genetic variation is random, enabling unbiased estimation of direct genetic effects when parents are genotyped. However, parental genotypes are often missing. We introduce a method that imputes missing parental genotypes and estimates direct genetic effects. Our method, implemented in the software package snipar (single-nucleotide imputation of parents), gives more precise estimates of direct genetic effects than existing approaches. Using 39,614 individuals from the UK Biobank with at least one genotyped sibling/parent, we estimate the correlation between direct genetic effects and effects from standard GWASs for nine phenotypes, including educational attainment (r = 0.739, standard error (s.e.) = 0.086) and cognitive ability (r = 0.490, s.e. = 0.086). Our results demonstrate substantial confounding bias in standard GWASs for some phenotypes.

Polygenic prediction of educational attainment within and between families from genome-wide association analyses in 3 million individuals.

We conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of educational attainment (EA) in a sample of ~3 million individuals and identify 3,952 approximately uncorrelated genome-wide-significant single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). A genome-wide polygenic predictor, or polygenic index (PGI), explains 12-16% of EA variance and contributes to risk prediction for ten diseases. Direct effects (i.e., controlling for parental PGIs) explain roughly half the PGI's magnitude of association with EA and other phenotypes. The correlation between mate-pair PGIs is far too large to be consistent with phenotypic assortment alone, implying additional assortment on PGI-associated factors. In an additional GWAS of dominance deviations from the additive model, we identify no genome-wide-significant SNPs, and a separate X-chromosome additive GWAS identifies 57.

How important are parents in the development of child anxiety and depression? A genomic analysis of parent-offspring trios in the Norwegian Mother Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa).

BACKGROUND: Many studies detect associations between parent behaviour and child symptoms of anxiety and depression. Despite knowledge that anxiety and depression are influenced by a complex interplay of genetic and environmental risk factors, most studies do not account for shared familial genetic risk. Quantitative genetic designs provide a means of controlling for shared genetics, but rely on observed putative exposure variables, and require data from highly specific family structures. METHODS: The intergenerational genomic method, Relatedness Disequilibrium Regression (RDR), indexes environmental effects of parents on child traits using measured genotypes. RDR estimates how much the parent genome influences the child indirectly via the environment, over and above effects of genetic factors acting directly in the child. This 'genetic nurture' effect is agnostic to parent phenotype and captures unmeasured heritable parent behaviours. We applied RDR in a sample of 11,598 parent-offspring trios from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) to estimate parental genetic nurture separately from direct child genetic effects on anxiety and depression symptoms at age 8. We tested for mediation of genetic nurture via maternal anxiety and depression symptoms. Results were compared to a complementary non-genomic pedigree model. RESULTS: Parental genetic nurture explained 14% of the variance in depression symptoms at age 8. Subsequent analyses suggested that maternal anxiety and depression partially mediated this effect. The genetic nurture effect was mirrored by the finding of family environmental influence in our pedigree model. In contrast, variance in anxiety symptoms was not significantly influenced by common genetic variation in children or parents, despite a moderate pedigree heritability. CONCLUSIONS: Genomic methods like RDR represent new opportunities for genetically sensitive family research on complex human traits, which until now has been largely confined to adoption, twin and other pedigree designs. Our results are relevant to debates about the role of parents in the development of anxiety and depression in children, and possibly where to intervene to reduce problems.

Deconstructing the sources of genotype-phenotype associations in humans.

Efforts to link variation in the human genome to phenotypes have progressed at a tremendous pace in recent decades. Most human traits have been shown to be affected by a large number of genetic variants across the genome. To interpret these associations and to use them reliably-in particular for phenotypic prediction-a better understanding of the many sources of genotype-phenotype associations is necessary. We summarize the progress that has been made in this direction in humans, notably in decomposing direct and indirect genetic effects as well as population structure confounding. We discuss the natural next steps in data collection and methodology development, with a focus on what can be gained by analyzing genotype and phenotype data from close relatives.

Identifying loci affecting trait variability and detecting interactions in genome-wide association studies.

Identification of genetic variants with effects on trait variability can provide insights into the biological mechanisms that control variation and can identify potential interactions. We propose a two-degree-of-freedom test for jointly testing mean and variance effects to identify such variants. We implement the test in a linear mixed model, for which we provide an efficient algorithm and software. To focus on biologically interesting settings, we develop a test for dispersion effects, that is, variance effects not driven solely by mean effects when the trait distribution is non-normal. We apply our approach to body mass index in the subsample of the UK Biobank population with British ancestry (n ~408,000) and show that our approach can increase the power to detect associated loci. We identify and replicate novel associations with significant variance effects that cannot be explained by the non-normality of body mass index, and we provide suggestive evidence for a connection between leptin levels and body mass index variability.

Relatedness disequilibrium regression estimates heritability without environmental bias.

Heritability measures the proportion of trait variation that is due to genetic inheritance. Measurement of heritability is important in the nature-versus-nurture debate. However, existing estimates of heritability may be biased by environmental effects. Here, we introduce relatedness disequilibrium regression (RDR), a novel method for estimating heritability. RDR avoids most sources of environmental bias by exploiting variation in relatedness due to random Mendelian segregation. We used a sample of 54,888 Icelanders who had both parents genotyped to estimate the heritability of 14 traits, including height (55.4%, s.e. 4.4%) and educational attainment (17.0%, s.e. 9.4%). Our results suggest that some other estimates of heritability may be inflated by environmental effects.

The nature of nurture: Effects of parental genotypes.

Sequence variants in the parental genomes that are not transmitted to a child (the proband) are often ignored in genetic studies. Here we show that nontransmitted alleles can affect a child through their impacts on the parents and other relatives, a phenomenon we call "genetic nurture." Using results from a meta-analysis of educational attainment, we find that the polygenic score computed for the nontransmitted alleles of 21,637 probands with at least one parent genotyped has an estimated effect on the educational attainment of the proband that is 29.9% (P = 1.6 × 10-14) of that of the transmitted polygenic score. Genetic nurturing effects of this polygenic score extend to other traits. Paternal and maternal polygenic scores have similar effects on educational attainment, but mothers contribute more than fathers to nutrition- and heath-related traits.

Selection against variants in the genome associated with educational attainment.

Epidemiological and genetic association studies show that genetics play an important role in the attainment of education. Here, we investigate the effect of this genetic component on the reproductive history of 109,120 Icelanders and the consequent impact on the gene pool over time. We show that an educational attainment polygenic score, POLYEDU, constructed from results of a recent study is associated with delayed reproduction (P < 10-100) and fewer children overall. The effect is stronger for women and remains highly significant after adjusting for educational attainment. Based on 129,808 Icelanders born between 1910 and 1990, we find that the average POLYEDU has been declining at a rate of ∼0.010 standard units per decade, which is substantial on an evolutionary timescale. Most importantly, because POLYEDU only captures a fraction of the overall underlying genetic component the latter could be declining at a rate that is two to three times faster.

Powerful decomposition of complex traits in a diploid model.

Explaining trait differences between individuals is a core and challenging aim of life sciences. Here, we introduce a powerful framework for complete decomposition of trait variation into its underlying genetic causes in diploid model organisms. We sequence and systematically pair the recombinant gametes of two intercrossed natural genomes into an array of diploid hybrids with fully assembled and phased genomes, termed Phased Outbred Lines (POLs). We demonstrate the capacity of this approach by partitioning fitness traits of 6,642 Saccharomyces cerevisiae POLs across many environments, achieving near complete trait heritability and precisely estimating additive (73%), dominance (10%), second (7%) and third (1.7%) order epistasis components. We map quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and find nonadditive QTLs to outnumber (3:1) additive loci, dominant contributions to heterosis to outnumber overdominant, and extensive pleiotropy. The POL framework offers the most complete decomposition of diploid traits to date and can be adapted to most model organisms.

Multiple novel gene-by-environment interactions modify the effect of FTO variants on body mass index.

Genetic studies have shown that obesity risk is heritable and that, of the many common variants now associated with body mass index, those in an intron of the fat mass and obesity-associated (FTO) gene have the largest effect. The size of the UK Biobank, and its joint measurement of genetic, anthropometric and lifestyle variables, offers an unprecedented opportunity to assess gene-by-environment interactions in a way that accounts for the dependence between different factors. We jointly examine the evidence for interactions between FTO (rs1421085) and various lifestyle and environmental factors. We report interactions between the FTO variant and each of: frequency of alcohol consumption (P=3.0 × 10(-4)); deviations from mean sleep duration (P=8.0 × 10(-4)); overall diet (P=5.0 × 10(-6)), including added salt (P=1.2 × 10(-3)); and physical activity (P=3.1 × 10(-4)).

Estimation of epistatic variance components and heritability in founder populations and crosses.

Genetic association studies have explained only a small proportion of the estimated heritability of complex traits, leaving the remaining heritability "missing." Genetic interactions have been proposed as an explanation for this, because they lead to overestimates of the heritability and are hard to detect. Whether this explanation is true depends on the proportion of variance attributable to genetic interactions, which is difficult to measure in outbred populations. Founder populations exhibit a greater range of kinship than outbred populations, which helps in fitting the epistatic variance. We extend classic theory to founder populations, giving the covariance between individuals due to epistasis of any order. We recover the classic theory as a limit, and we derive a recently proposed estimator of the narrow sense heritability as a corollary. We extend the variance decomposition to include dominance. We show in simulations that it would be possible to estimate the variance from pairwise interactions with samples of a few thousand from strongly bottlenecked human founder populations, and we provide an analytical approximation of the standard error. Applying these methods to 46 traits measured in a yeast (Saccharomyces cerevisiae) cross, we estimate that pairwise interactions explain 10% of the phenotypic variance on average and that third- and higher-order interactions explain 14% of the phenotypic variance on average. We search for third-order interactions, discovering an interaction that is shared between two traits. Our methods will be relevant to future studies of epistatic variance in founder populations and crosses.