Machine learning improves the prediction of significant fibrosis in Asian patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease - The Gut and Obesity in Asia (GO-ASIA) Study.

BACKGROUND: The precise estimation of cases with significant fibrosis (SF) is an unmet goal in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD/MASLD). AIMS: We evaluated the performance of machine learning (ML) and non-patented scores for ruling out SF among NAFLD/MASLD patients. METHODS: Twenty-one ML models were trained (N = 1153), tested (N = 283), and validated (N = 220) on clinical and biochemical parameters of histologically-proven NAFLD/MASLD patients (N = 1656) collected across 14 centres in 8 Asian countries. Their performance for detecting histological-SF (≥F2fibrosis) were evaluated with APRI, FIB4, NFS, BARD, and SAFE (NPV/F1-score as model-selection criteria). RESULTS: Patients aged 47 years (median), 54.6% males, 73.7% with metabolic syndrome, and 32.9% with histological-SF were included in the study. Patients with SFvs.no-SF had higher age, aminotransferases, fasting plasma glucose, metabolic syndrome, uncontrolled diabetes, and NAFLD activity score (p < 0.001, each). ML models showed 7%-12% better discrimination than FIB-4 to detect SF. Optimised random forest (RF) yielded best NPV/F1 in overall set (0.947/0.754), test set (0.798/0.588) and validation set (0.852/0.559), as compared to FIB4 in overall set (0.744/0.499), test set (0.722/0.456), and validation set (0.806/0.507). Compared to FIB-4, RF could pick 10 times more patients with SF, reduce unnecessary referrals by 28%, and prevent missed referrals by 78%. Age, AST, ALT fasting plasma glucose, and platelet count were top features determining the SF. Sequential use of SAFE < 140 and FIB4 < 1.2 (when SAFE > 140) was next best in ruling out SF (NPV of 0.757, 0.724 and 0.827 in overall, test and validation set). CONCLUSIONS: ML with clinical, anthropometric data and simple blood investigations perform better than FIB-4 for ruling out SF in biopsy-proven Asian NAFLD/MASLD patients.

Longitudinal Outcomes Associated With Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease: A Meta-analysis of 129 Studies.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The progression of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) has been found to manifest in a series of hepatic and extrahepatic complications. A comprehensive meta-analysis of the longitudinal outcomes associated with MASLD has yet to be conducted. METHODS: To investigate the longitudinal outcomes associated with MASLD, Medline and Embase databases were searched to identify original studies that evaluated the longitudinal risks of incident clinical outcomes among MASLD patients compared with non-MASLD individuals. DerSimonian Laird random-effects meta-analysis was performed. Pooled effect estimates were calculated, and heterogeneity among studies was evaluated. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-nine studies were included in the meta-analysis. Meta-analysis revealed a significant increase in the risk of cardiovascular outcomes (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-1.60; P < .01), various metabolic outcomes such as incident hypertension (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.46-2.08; P < .01), diabetes (HR, 2.56; 95% CI, 2.10-3.13; P < .01), pre-diabetes (HR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.22-2.35; P < .01), metabolic syndrome (HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.13-5.85; P = .02), chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.27-1.50; P < .01), as well as all cancers (HR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.35-1.76; P < .01) among MASLD patients compared with non-MASLD individuals. By subgroup analysis, MASLD patients with advanced liver disease (HR, 3.60; 95% CI, 2.10-6.18; P < .01) were also found to be associated with a significantly greater risk (P = .02) of incident diabetes than those with less severe MASLD (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.0-2.45; P = .02) when compared with non-MASLD. CONCLUSIONS: The present study emphasizes the association between MASLD and its clinical outcomes including cardiovascular, metabolic, oncologic, and other outcomes. The multisystemic nature of MASLD found in this analysis requires treatment targets to reduce systemic events and end organ complications.

Efficacy and safety of tirzepatide for treatment of overweight or obesity. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that tirzepatide, a dual glucose-dependent insulinotropic-peptide (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA), has significant weight loss effects. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to assess the efficacy and safety of tirzepatide for weight loss in patients with overweight or obesity. METHODS: Medline, Embase and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on tirzepatide's weight loss efficacy for these patients. A single arm meta-analysis of proportions estimated primary outcomes, ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss, and adverse events (AEs); while meta-analysis of means estimated secondary outcomes. Comparative meta-analysis was conducted between tirzepatide and control arms where mean differences and odds ratios were estimated for continuous and dichotomous outcomes respectively. RESULTS: RCTs included in this study revealed that among 5800 patients, 78.22% (95% CI: 72.15% to 83.73%), 55.60% (95% CI: 46.54% to 64.47%), 32.28% (95% CI: 23.17% to 42.12%) achieved ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss, respectively. Tirzepatide 5 mg demonstrated weight loss superiority relative to placebo (MD: -12.47 kg, 95% CI: -13.94 kg to -11.00 kg) and semaglutide (n = 1409, MD: -1.90 kg, 95% CI: -2.97 kg to -0.83 kg) with dose-dependent increase for 10 mg and 15 mg doses. The comparison between tirzepatide and semaglutide was examined in the SURPASS-2 trial that was included in this systematic review. For AEs, there was increase odds of experiencing gastrointestinal AEs with tirzepatide compared to placebo, but no significant difference with semaglutide. CONCLUSION: Tirzepatide has significant potential as a weight loss drug in patients with overweight and obesity, with little increase in AEs compared to other weight loss drugs. With its ability to concurrently target multiple aspects of metabolic syndrome, it should be considered as the next helm of weight loss therapies.

The global burden of metabolic disease: Data from 2000 to 2019.

Global estimates of prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 were examined for metabolic diseases (type 2 diabetes mellitus [T2DM], hypertension, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease [NAFLD]). For metabolic risk factors (hyperlipidemia and obesity), estimates were limited to mortality and DALYs. From 2000 to 2019, prevalence rates increased for all metabolic diseases, with the greatest increase in high socio-demographic index (SDI) countries. Mortality rates decreased over time in hyperlipidemia, hypertension, and NAFLD, but not in T2DM and obesity. The highest mortality was found in the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean region, and low to low-middle SDI countries. The global prevalence of metabolic diseases has risen over the past two decades regardless of SDI. Urgent attention is needed to address the unchanging mortality rates attributed to metabolic disease and the entrenched sex-regional-socioeconomic disparities in mortality.

Depression in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with an increased risk of complications and mortality.

Background and aims: The global prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is expected to rise continuously. Furthermore, emerging evidence has also shown the potential for concomitant depression in NAFLD. This study aims to examine the prevalence, risk factors, and adverse events of depression in NAFLD and evaluate whether treated depression can reverse the increased risks of adverse outcomes. Materials and methods: This study analyses the 2000-2018 cycles of NHANES that examined liver steatosis with fatty liver index (FLI). The relationship between NAFLD and depression was assessed with a generalized linear mix model and a sensitivity analysis was conducted in the no depression, treated depression, and untreated depression groups. Survival analysis was conducted with cox regression and fine gray sub-distribution model. Results: A total of 21,414 patients were included and 6,726 were diagnosed with NAFLD. The risk of depression in NAFLD was 12% higher compared to non-NAFLD individuals (RR: 1.12, CI: 1.00-1.26, p = 0.04). NAFLD individuals with depression were more likely to be older, females, Hispanics or Caucasians, diabetic, and have higher BMI. Individuals with depression have high risk for cardiovascular diseases (CVD) (RR: 1.40, CI: 1.25-1.58, p < 0.01), stroke (RR: 1.71, CI: 1.27-2.23, p < 0.01), all-cause mortality (HR: 1.50, CI: 1.25-1.81, p < 0.01), and cancer-related mortality (SHR: 1.43, CI: 1.14-1.80, p = 0.002) compared to NAFLD individuals without depression. The risk of CVD, stroke, all-cause mortality, and cancer-related mortality in NAFLD individuals with treated depression and depression with untreated treatment was higher compared to individuals without depression. Conclusion: This study shows that concomitant depression in NAFLD patients can increase the risk of adverse outcomes. Early screening of depression in high-risk individuals should be encouraged to improve the wellbeing of NAFLD patients.

The placebo response rate and nocebo events in obesity pharmacological trials. A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: There is a growing number of trials examining the effectiveness of pharmacotherapies for obesity, however, little is known about placebo and nocebo effect in these trials. Hence, we sought to examine the effect of placebo in obesity trials, to better understand the potential factors affecting clinical endpoints in them. Methods: Medline, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL were searched for articles examining weight-loss RCTs examining patients with overweight or obesity in placebo-controlled arms from inception till 25 June 2022. This paper was registered online with PROSPERO (CRD42022302482). A single arm meta-analysis of proportions was used to estimate the primary outcomes, ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% total weight loss - and the adverse effects that patients experienced during the trial. A meta-analysis of means was used to estimate the pooled mean differences of the secondary outcomes including, body weight measurements, lipid levels, glycemic indices, and blood pressure over time. Findings: A total of 63 papers involving 20,454 patients and 69 trials were included. The proportion of patients that had ≥5%, ≥10%, and ≥15% weight loss was 20·4% (CI:16·1% to 25·0%), 8·3% (CI:6·1% to 10·9%), and 6·2% (CI:3·8% to 9·7%), respectively. Analysis by duration of trials showed stepwise increase in proportion of patients with ≥5% and ≥10% weight loss with increasing duration of study. Analysis of secondary outcomes found modest improvement in all analyses. The pooled average rate of overall AEs, serious AEs, and discontinuation was 73·7% (CI:68·0% to 79·0%), 3·4% (CI:2·4% to 4·5%), and 5·2% (CI:4·0% to 6·5%), respectively. In psychiatric complications, the pooled rates of anxiety and depression were 2·7% (CI:1·8% to 3·7%) and 2·5 (CI:1·7% to 3·3%). Interpretation: Our meta-analysis of placebo-treated participants in weight-loss RCTs indicate a significant placebo and nocebo effect. These findings are important to quantify their effect and may inform the design of future RCTs. Funding: This research did not receive additional support from organizations beyond the authors' academic institutions.

Comparable Outcomes in Early Hepatocellular Carcinomas Treated with Trans-Arterial Chemoembolization and Radiofrequency Ablation.

The guidelines recommend radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for early hepatocellular carcinomas that are less than 3 cm and trans-arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for intermediate-stage tumors. Real-world patient and tumor factors commonly limit strict adherence to the guidelines. We aimed to compare the clinical outcomes for TACE and RFA in early HCC. All consecutive patients from 2010 to 2014 that were treated with locoregional therapy at our institution were enrolled. The decision for TACE or RFA was based on tumor location, stage and technical accessibility for ablation. A subgroup analysis was performed for patients with tumors less than 3 cm. A total of 168 patients underwent TACE while 56 patients underwent RFA. Patients treated with TACE and RFA had 1- and 5-year survival rates of 84.7% and 39.8% versus 91.5% and 51.5%, respectively (p = 0.28). In tumors less than 3 cm, there was no significant difference in overall survival (p = 0.69), time to progression (p = 0.55), or number of treatment sessions required (p = 0.12). Radiofrequency ablation had a significantly higher chance of a complete response (p = 0.004). In conclusion, TACE may be selectively considered for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients unsuitable for other modalities.

Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease Increases the Risk of Systemic Complications and Mortality. A Meta-Analysis and Systematic Review of 12 620 736 Individuals.

OBJECTIVE: The recent introduction of the term metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) sought to reclassify nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). MAFLD is thought to improve the encapsulation of metabolic dysregulation. However, recent evidence has found significant differences between MAFLD and NAFLD, and prevailing knowledge has largely arisen from studies on NAFLD. Hence, we conducted a meta-analysis and systematic review of the outcomes associated with MAFLD. METHODS: MEDLINE and Embase databases were searched for articles relating to outcomes in MAFLD. Analysis was conducted in random effects with hazard ratios (HRs) to account for longitudinal risk assessment of mortality and systemic complications. RESULTS: A total of 554 articles were identified, of which 17 articles were included. MAFLD resulted in an increase in the overall mortality (HR, 1.24; confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.34), cancer-related mortality (HR, 1.27; CI, 1.01-1.54), and cardiovascular disease mortality (HR, 1.28, 1.03-1.53; P = .04) compared with non-MAFLD. MAFLD also increases the risk of cardiovascular events (HR, 1.49; CI, 1.34-1.64; P < .01), stroke (HR, 1.55; CI, 1.37-1.73; P < .01), and chronic kidney disease (HR, 1.53; CI, 1.38-1.68). The presence of MAFLD was also associated with an increased risk of heart failure, obstructive sleep apnea, and malignancy. CONCLUSION: MAFLD can significantly elevate the risk of systemic diseases and mortality. The care of MAFLD thus requires interdisciplinary collaboration, and future clinical trials conducted on MAFLD should aim to reduce the incidence of end-organ damage aside from improving liver histology.

Intratumoural immune heterogeneity as a hallmark of tumour evolution and progression in hepatocellular carcinoma.

The clinical relevance of immune landscape intratumoural heterogeneity (immune-ITH) and its role in tumour evolution remain largely unexplored. Here, we uncover significant spatial and phenotypic immune-ITH from multiple tumour sectors and decipher its relationship with tumour evolution and disease progression in hepatocellular carcinomas (HCC). Immune-ITH is associated with tumour transcriptomic-ITH, mutational burden and distinct immune microenvironments. Tumours with low immune-ITH experience higher immunoselective pressure and escape via loss of heterozygosity in human leukocyte antigens and immunoediting. Instead, the tumours with high immune-ITH evolve to a more immunosuppressive/exhausted microenvironment. This gradient of immune pressure along with immune-ITH represents a hallmark of tumour evolution, which is closely linked to the transcriptome-immune networks contributing to disease progression and immune inactivation. Remarkably, high immune-ITH and its transcriptomic signature are predictive for worse clinical outcome in HCC patients. This in-depth investigation of ITH provides evidence on tumour-immune co-evolution along HCC progression.

SARS-CoV-2 in migrant worker dormitories: Geospatial epidemiology supporting outbreak management.

BACKGROUND: Migrant worker dormitories-residential complexes where 10-24 workers share living spaces-account for the majority of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Singapore. To prevent overspill of transmission to the wider population, starting in early April 2020, residents were confined to their dormitories while measures were put in place to arrest the spread of infection. This descriptive study presents epidemiological data for a population of more than 60 000 migrant workers living in two barracks-style and four apartment-style dormitories located in western Singapore from April 3 to June 10, 2020. METHODS: Our report draws from data obtained over the first 50 days of outbreak management in order to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission in high-density housing environments. Cumulative counts of SARS-CoV-2 cases and numbers of housing units affected were analyzed to report the harmonic means of harmonic means of doubling times and their 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Multiple transmission peaks were identified involving at least 5467 cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection across six dormitories. Our geospatial heat maps gave an early indication of outbreak severity in affected buildings. We found that the number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection doubled every 1.56 days (95% CI 1.29-1.96) in barracks-style buildings. The corresponding doubling time for apartment-style buildings was 2.65 days (95% CI 2.01-3.87). CONCLUSIONS: Geospatial epidemiology was useful in shaping outbreak management strategies in dormitories. Our results indicate that building design plays an integral role in transmission and should be considered in the prevention of future outbreaks.