Identifying patients with symptoms suspicious for COVID-19 at elevated risk of adverse events: The COVAS score.

OBJECTIVE: Develop and validate a risk score using variables available during an Emergency Department (ED) encounter to predict adverse events among patients with suspected COVID-19. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of adult visits for suspected COVID-19 between March 1 - April 30, 2020 at 15 EDs in Southern California. The primary outcomes were death or respiratory decompensation within 7-days. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) models and logistic regression to derive a risk score. We report metrics for derivation and validation cohorts, and subgroups with pneumonia or COVID-19 diagnoses. RESULTS: 26,600 ED encounters were included and 1079 experienced an adverse event. Five categories (comorbidities, obesity/BMI ≥ 40, vital signs, age and sex) were included in the final score. The area under the curve (AUC) in the derivation cohort was 0.891 (95% CI, 0.880-0.901); similar performance was observed in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.895, 95% CI, 0.874-0.916). Sensitivity ranging from 100% (Score 0) to 41.7% (Score of ≥15) and specificity from 13.9% (score 0) to 96.8% (score ≥ 15). In the subgroups with pneumonia (n = 3252) the AUCs were 0.780 (derivation, 95% CI 0.759-0.801) and 0.832 (validation, 95% CI 0.794-0.870), while for COVID-19 diagnoses (n = 2059) the AUCs were 0.867 (95% CI 0.843-0.892) and 0.837 (95% CI 0.774-0.899) respectively. CONCLUSION: Physicians evaluating ED patients with pneumonia, COVID-19, or symptoms suspicious for COVID-19 can apply the COVAS score to assist with decisions to hospitalize or discharge patients during the SARS CoV-2 pandemic.

Effect of Physical Activity Coaching on Acute Care and Survival Among Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Pragmatic Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: While observational studies show that physical inactivity is associated with worse outcomes in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), there are no population-based trials to date testing the effectiveness of physical activity (PA) interventions to reduce acute care use or improve survival. Objective: To evaluate the long-term effectiveness of a community-based PA coaching intervention in patients with COPD. Design, Setting, and Participants: Pragmatic randomized clinical trial with preconsent randomization to the 12-month Walk On! (WO) intervention or standard care (SC). Enrollment occurred from July 1, 2015, to July 31, 2017; follow-up ended in July 2018. The setting was Kaiser Permanente Southern California sites. Participants were patients 40 years or older who had any COPD-related acute care use in the previous 12 months; only patients assigned to WO were approached for consent to participate in intervention activities. Interventions: The WO intervention included collaborative monitoring of PA step counts, semiautomated step goal recommendations, individualized reinforcement, and peer/family support. Standard COPD care could include referrals to pulmonary rehabilitation. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite binary measure of all-cause hospitalizations, observation stays, emergency department visits, and death using adjusted logistic regression in the 12 months after randomization. Secondary outcomes included self-reported PA, COPD-related acute care use, symptoms, quality of life, and cardiometabolic markers. Results: All 2707 eligible patients (baseline mean [SD] age, 72 [10] years; 53.7% female; 74.3% of white race/ethnicity; and baseline mean [SD] percent forced expiratory volume in the first second of expiration predicted, 61.0 [22.5]) were randomly assigned to WO (n = 1358) or SC (n = 1349). The intent-to-treat analysis showed no differences between WO and SC on the primary all-cause composite outcome (odds ratio [OR], 1.09; 95% CI, 0.92-1.28; P = .33) or in the individual outcomes. Prespecified, as-treated analyses compared outcomes between all SC and 321 WO patients who participated in any intervention activities (23.6% [321 of 1358] uptake). The as-treated, propensity score-weighted model showed nonsignificant positive estimates in favor of WO participants compared with SC on all-cause hospitalizations (OR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.65-1.10; P = .21) and death (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.35-1.11; P = .11). More WO participants reported engaging in PA compared with SC (47.4% [152 of 321] vs 30.7% [414 of 1349]; P < .001) and had improvements in the Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System 10 physical health domain at 6 months. There were no group differences in other secondary outcomes. Conclusions and Relevance: Participation in a PA coaching program by patients with a history of COPD exacerbations was insufficient to effect improvements in acute care use or survival in the primary analysis. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02478359.

Associations between physical activity and 30-day readmission risk in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

RATIONALE: Efforts to reduce 30-day readmission have mostly concentrated on addressing deficiencies in care transitions and outpatient management after discharge. There is growing evidence to suggest that physical inactivity is associated with increased hospitalizations. OBJECTIVES: We examined whether or not a potentially modifiable factor such as regular physical activity at baseline was associated with lower risk of 30-day readmission in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: Patients from a large integrated health system were included in this retrospective cohort study if they were hospitalized for COPD (following the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and National Quality Forum proposed criteria) and discharged between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2012, aged 40 years or older, on a bronchodilator or steroid inhaler, alive at discharge, and continuously enrolled in the health plan 12 months before the index admission and at least 30 days post discharge. Our main outcome was 30-day all-cause readmission. Regular physical activity was routinely assessed at the time of all outpatient visits and expressed as the total minutes of moderate or vigorous physical activity (MVPA) per week. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The sample included a total of 4,596 patients (5,862 index admissions) with a mean age of 72.3 ± 11 years. The 30-day readmission rate was 18%, with 59% of readmissions occurring in the first 15 days. Multivariate adjusted analyses showed that patients reporting any level of MPVA had a significantly lower risk of 30-day readmission compared with inactive patients (1-149 min/wk of MVPA: relative risk, 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.55-0.81; ≥150 min/wk of MVPA: relative risk, 0.66; 95% confidence interval, 0.51-0.87). Other significant independent predictors of increased readmission included anemia, prior hospitalizations, longer lengths of stay, more comorbidities, receipt of a new oxygen prescription at discharge, use of the emergency department or observational stay before the readmission (all, P < 0.05), and being unpartnered (P = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings further support the importance of physical activity in the management of COPD across the care continuum. Although it is possible that lower physical activity is a reflection of worse disease, promoting and supporting physical activity is a promising strategy to reduce the risk of readmission.

Analysis of hospitalizations for COPD exacerbation: opportunities for improving care.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the actual treatment of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), either in the inpatient or outpatient settings. We hypothesized that there are substantial opportunities for improvement in adherence with current guidelines and recommendations. METHODS: We reviewed the medical records of all patients hospitalized with acute exacerbation of COPD between January 2005 and December 2006 at 5 New York City hospitals. RESULTS: There were 1285 unique patients with 1653 hospitalizations. Of these 1653, 83% were for patients with a prior history of COPD and 368 (22%) represented repeat admissions during our study period. The majority were treated during their hospitalization with a combination of systemic steroids (85%), bronchodilators (94%) and antibiotics (80%). There were 59 deaths (3.6%). Smoking cessation counseling was offered to 48% of active smokers. Influenza and pneumococcal vaccines were administered to half of eligible patients. On discharge, only 46.0% were prescribed maintenance bronchodilators and 24% were not prescribed any inhaled therapy. Even in the 226 unique patients (17.6%) readmitted at least once during course of the study, on discharge only 44.7% were prescribed maintenance bronchodilators and 23% were not prescribed any regular inhaled therapy. CONCLUSIONS: Patients hospitalized with acute exacerbation of COPD generally receive adequate hospital care, but there may be opportunities to improve care pharmacologically and with smoking cessation counseling and vaccination during and after hospitalization.