Incorporating environmental heterogeneity and observation effort to predict host distribution and viral spillover from a bat reservoir.

Predicting the spatial occurrence of wildlife is a major challenge for ecology and management. In Latin America, limited knowledge of the number and locations of vampire bat roosts precludes informed allocation of measures intended to prevent rabies spillover to humans and livestock. We inferred the spatial distribution of vampire bat roosts while accounting for observation effort and environmental effects by fitting a log Gaussian Cox process model to the locations of 563 roosts in three regions of Peru. Our model explained 45% of the variance in the observed roost distribution and identified environmental drivers of roost establishment. When correcting for uneven observation effort, our model estimated a total of 2340 roosts, indicating that undetected roosts (76%) exceed known roosts (24%) by threefold. Predicted hotspots of undetected roosts in rabies-free areas revealed high-risk areas for future viral incursions. Using the predicted roost distribution to inform a spatial model of rabies spillover to livestock identified areas with disproportionate underreporting and indicated a higher rabies burden than previously recognized. We provide a transferrable approach to infer the distribution of a mostly unobserved bat reservoir that can inform strategies to prevent the re-emergence of an important zoonosis.

Molecular Epidemiology of Trypanosomatids and Trypanosoma cruzi in Primates from Peru.

We determined the prevalence rate and risk of infection of Trypanosoma cruzi and other trypanosomatids in Peruvian non-human primates (NHPs) in the wild (n = 126) and in different captive conditions (n = 183). Blood samples were collected on filter paper, FTA cards, or EDTA tubes and tested using a nested PCR protocol targeting the 24Sα rRNA gene. Main risk factors associated with trypanosomatid and T. cruzi infection were genus and the human-animal context (wild vs captive animals). Wild NHPs had higher prevalence of both trypanosomatids (64.3 vs 27.9%, P < 0.001) and T. cruzi (8.7 vs 3.3%, P = 0.057), compared to captive NHPs, suggesting that parasite transmission in NHPs occurs more actively in the sylvatic cycle. In terms of primate family, Pitheciidae had the highest trypanosomatid prevalence (20/22, 90.9%) and Cebidae had the highest T. cruzi prevalence (15/117, 12.8%). T. cruzi and trypanosomatids are common in Peruvian NHPs and could pose a health risk to human and animals that has not been properly studied.