Adherence to guidelines and central line-associated bloodstream infection occurrence during insertion and maintenance of intravascular catheters: evidence from 20 tertiary hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate adherence to intravascular catheter (IVC) insertion and maintenance guidelines in Chinese tertiary hospitals. METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey of adult inpatients with IVC placements was conducted from July to September 2022 in 20 tertiary hospitals in China. One clinical staff member from each department in each hospital was assigned to participate in the survey. Questionnaires were uniformly collected and reviewed after 3 months. RESULTS: This study included 1815 cases (62.69%) of central venous catheter, 471 cases (16.27%) of peripherally inserted central catheter, 461 cases (15.92%) of PORT, and 147 cases (5.08%) of haemodialysis catheter insertions. Statistically significant differences in compliance were observed across the four IVC types, specifically in relation to the insertion checklist, standard operating procedure, and insertion environment (P<0.05). Practice adherence during IVC maintenance differed significantly across the four IVC types in aspects such as availability of IVC maintenance verification forms, daily scrubbing of the catheterised patients, and catheter connection methods (P<0.05). A total of 386 (13.34%) patients developed fever, 1086 (37.53%) were treated with therapeutic antibiotics, 16 (0.55%) developed central line-associated bloodstream infections, two (0.07%) developed local skin infections, and six (0.21%) developed deep vein thrombosis. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to guidelines regarding insertion and maintenance differed across the four IVC types; there is a gap between the recommended measures and the actual operation of the guideline. Therefore, it is necessary to further enhance training and develop checklists to prevent CLABSIs.

Investigating the temporal trends of diabetes disease burden in China during 1990-2019 from a global perspective.

Introduction: Diabetes poses a global public health challenge and our understanding of its temporal evolution in China relative to the rest of the world is limited. Our study aims to comprehensively examine the temporal trend of diabetes DALYs in China from a global perspective. Methods: We analyzed data on diabetes incidence, prevalence, and mortality for individuals aged ≥20 years in China and globally from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. We assessed trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of diabetes in China and globally by estimating annual percentage changes (EAPCs). We employed decomposition analysis to reveal factors driving the trend of diabetes DALYs in China. Results: During 1990-2019, the number of diabetes patients increased by 160% from 35.14 million to 91.70 million in China. The ASIR of diabetes increased from 249 per 100,000 to 329 per 100,000 in China, which was lower than the global rate (419 per 100,000 in 2019). The EAPC of diabetes incidence was also lower in China compared to the global rate (1.02% vs. 1.57%). Consistently, the age-standardized prevalence rate of diabetes increased from 4788 per 100,000 to 8170 per 100,000 during 1990-2019 in China, which remained lower than the corresponding global rate (8827 per 100,000 in 2019). Further, the ASMR of diabetes increased from 9 per 100,000 to 15 per 100,000 during 1990-2019 in China, which was lower than the corresponding global rate (30 per 100,000 in 2019). However, EAPC of diabetes mortality in China was much higher than the global level (1.75% vs. 1.07%). Globally, the rising diabetes DALYs was predominantly attributed to population growth (55.2%) and epidemiologic changes (24.6%). In comparison, population growth (48.9%) also played an important role in the increasing diabetes DALYs in China, but aging (43.7%) was second major contributor. Conclusion: Our findings show that diabetes DALYs in China followed a global increasing trend during 1990-2019. Notably, aging has a very substantial contribution to the increase in diabetes DALYs in China in addition to population growth. .

Optimising HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis and testing strategies in men who have sex with men in Australia, Thailand, and China: a modelling study and cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the Asia-Pacific region have a disproportionately high burden of HIV infection compared with the general population. Although pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV is highly effective at preventing new HIV infections, the cost-effectiveness of PrEP for MSM in different countries in the Asia-Pacific region with varying PrEP coverage and HIV testing frequencies remains unstudied. We aimed to analyse the economic and health benefits of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral PrEP in high-income countries and low-income and middle-income countries within the Asia-Pacific region. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model to evaluate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP scale-up among MSM in Australia, Thailand, and China. We assumed a static cohort of 100 000 MSM aged 18 years or older who were at risk of HIV infection, with a monthly cycle length over a 40-year time period. We evaluated hypothetical scenarios with universal PrEP coverage of 80% among 100 000 suitable MSM in each country. We modelled oral PrEP and CAB-LA for MSM with diverse HIV testing frequency strategies. We adopted the health-care system's perspective with a 3% annual discount rate. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), measured as additional cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, to compare different strategies with the status quo in each country. All costs were reported in 2021 US$. We also performed one-way, two-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings. FINDINGS: Compared with the status quo in each country, expanding oral PrEP to 80% of suitable MSM would avert 8·1% of new HIV infections in Australia, 14·5% in Thailand, and 26·4% in China in a 40-year period. Expanding oral PrEP use with 6-monthly HIV testing for both PrEP and non-PrEP users was cost-saving for Australia. Similarly, expanding oral PrEP use remained the most cost-effective strategy in both Thailand and China, but optimal testing frequency varied, with annual testing in Thailand (ICER $4707 per QALY gained) and 3-monthly testing in China (ICER $16 926 per QALY gained) for both PrEP and non-PrEP users. We also found that replacing oral PrEP with CAB-LA for MSM could avert more new HIV infections (12·8% in Australia, 27·6% in Thailand, and 32·8% in China), but implementing CAB-LA was not cost-effective due to its high cost. The cost of CAB-LA would need to be reduced by 50-90% and be used as a complementary strategy to oral PrEP to be cost-effective in these countries. INTERPRETATION: Expanding oral PrEP use for MSM, with country-specific testing frequency, is cost-effective in Australia, Thailand, and China. Due to the high cost, CAB-LA is currently not affordable as a single-use strategy but might be offered as an additional option to oral PrEP. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, National Key Research and Development Program of China, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Cost-Effectiveness of the Second COVID-19 Booster Vaccination in the USA.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost effectiveness of the second COVID-19 booster vaccination with different age groups. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR)-Markov model by five age groups (0-4 years, 5-11 years 12-17 years, 18-49 years, and 50+ years) and calibrated the model by actual mortality in each age group in the USA. We conducted five scenarios to evaluate the cost effectiveness of the second booster strategy and incremental benefits if the strategy would expand to 18-49 years and 12-17 years, from a health care system perspective. The analysis was reported according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards 2022 statement. RESULTS: Implementing the second booster strategy for those aged ≥ 50 years cost $823 million but reduced direct medical costs by $1166 million, corresponding to a benefit-cost ratio of 1.42. Moreover, the strategy also resulted in a gain of 2596 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) during the 180-day evaluation period, indicating it was dominant. Further, vaccinating individuals aged 18-49 years with the second booster would result in an additional gain of $1592 million and 8790 QALYs. Similarly, expanding the vaccination to individuals aged 12-17 years would result in an additional gain of $16 million and 403 QALYs. However, if social interaction between all age groups was severed, vaccination expansion to ages 18-49 and 12-17 years would no longer be dominant but cost effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $37,572 and $26,705/QALY gained, respectively. CONCLUSION: The second booster strategy was likely to be dominant in reducing the disease burden of the COVID-19 pandemic. Expanding the second booster strategy to ages 18-49 and 12-17 years would remain dominant due to their social contacts with the older age group.

Cost-effectiveness of artificial intelligence-assisted liquid-based cytology testing for cervical cancer screening in China.

Background: The 2021 World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for cervical cancer screening recommend human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA or mRNA testing. Artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted liquid-based cytology (LBC) systems also have the potential to facilitate rapid scale-up of cervical cancer screening. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of AI-assisted LBC testing, compared with the manual LBC and HPV-DNA testing, for primary cervical cancer screening in China. Methods: We developed a Markov model for a cohort of 100,000 women aged 30 years over a lifetime to simulate the natural history of cervical cancer progression. We evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) of 18 screening strategies (a combination of the three screening methods with six screening frequencies) from a healthcare provider's perspective. The willingness-to-pay threshold (US$30,828) was chosen as three times the Chinese per-capita gross domestic product in 2019. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the robustness of the results. Findings: Compared with no screening, all 18 screening strategies were cost-effective, with an ICER of $622-24,482 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. If HPV testing after scaling up to population level screening costs $10.80 or more, screening once every 5 years using AI-assisted LBC would be the most cost-effective strategy with an ICER of $8790/QALY gained compared with the lower-cost non-dominated strategy on the cost-effectiveness frontier. Its probability of being cost-effective was higher (55.4%) than other strategies. Sensitivity analyses showed that the most cost-effective strategy would become AI-assisted LBC testing once every 3 years if the sensitivity (74.1%) and specificity (95.6%) of this method were both reduced by ≥10%. The most cost-effective strategy would become HPV-DNA testing once every 5 years if the cost of AI-assisted LBC was more expensive than manual LBC or if the HPV-DNA test cost is slightly reduced (from $10.8 to <$9.4). Interpretation: AI-assisted LBC screening once every 5 years could be more cost-effective than manually-read LBC. Using AI-assisted LBC could have comparable cost-effectiveness to HPV DNA screening, but the relative pricing of HPV DNA testing is critical in this result. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, National Key R&D Program of China.

The impact of attrition on the transmission of HIV and drug resistance.

BACKGROUND: Attrition due to loss to follow-up or termination of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among HIV-infected patients in care may increase the risk of emergence and transmission of drug resistance (TDR), diminish benefit of treatment, and increase morbidity and mortality. Understanding the impact of attrition on the epidemic is essential to provide interventions for improving retention in care. METHODS: We developed a comprehensive HIV transmission dynamics model by considering CD4 + cell count dependent diagnosis, treatment, and attrition involving TDR and acquired drug resistance. The model was calibrated by 11 groups HIV/AIDS surveillance data during 2008-2018 from Guangxi, China, and validated by the prevalence of TDR among diagnosed treatment-naive individuals. We aimed to investigate how attrition would affect the transmission of HIV and drug-resistance when expanding ART. RESULTS: In the base case with CD4 + cell count dependent per capita attrition rates 0.025∼0.15 and treatment rates 0.23∼0.42, we projected cumulative total new infections, new drug-resistant infections, and HIV-related deaths over 2022-2030 would be 145 391, 7637, and 51 965, respectively. Increasing treatment rates by 0.1∼0.2 can decrease the above total new infections (deaths) by 1.63∼2.93% (3.52∼6.16%). However, even 0.0114∼0.0220 (0.0352∼0.0695) increase in attrition rates would offset this benefit of decreasing infections (deaths). Increasing treatment rates (attrition rates) by 0.05∼0.1 would increase the above drug-resistant infections by 0.16∼0.30% (22.18∼41.15%). CONCLUSION: A minor increase in attrition can offset the benefit of treatment expansion and increase the transmission of HIV drug resistance. Reducing attrition rates for patients already in treatment may be as important as expanding treatment for untreated patients.

mRNA-based COVID-19 booster vaccination is highly effective and cost-effective in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Australia implemented an mRNA-based booster vaccination strategy against the COVID-19 Omicron variant in November 2021. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the booster strategy over 180 days. METHODS: We developed a decision-analytic Markov model of COVID-19 to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy (administered 3 months after 2nd dose) in those aged ≥ 16 years, from a healthcare system perspective. The willingness-to-pay threshold was chosen as A$ 50,000. RESULTS: Compared with 2-doses of COVID-19 vaccines without a booster, Australia's booster strategy would incur an additional cost of A$0.88 billion but save A$1.28 billion in direct medical cost and gain 670 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) in 180 days of its implementation. This suggested the booster strategy is cost-saving, corresponding to a benefit-cost ratio of 1.45 and a net monetary benefit of A$0.43 billion. The strategy would prevent 1.32 million new infections, 65,170 hospitalisations, 6,927 ICU admissions and 1,348 deaths from COVID-19 in 180 days. Further, a universal booster strategy of having all individuals vaccinated with the booster shot immediately once their eligibility is met would have resulted in a gain of 1,599 QALYs, a net monetary benefit of A$1.46 billion and a benefit-cost ratio of 1.95 in 180 days. CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 booster strategy implemented in Australia is likely to be effective and cost-effective for the Omicron epidemic. Universal booster vaccination would have further improved its effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Global Diabetes Prevalence in COVID-19 Patients and Contribution to COVID-19- Related Severity and Mortality: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 and diabetes both contribute to large global disease burdens. PURPOSE: To quantify the prevalence of diabetes in various COVID-19 disease stages and calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of diabetes to COVID-19-related severity and mortality. DATA SOURCES: Systematic review identified 729 studies with 29,874,938 COVID-19 patients. STUDY SELECTION: Studies detailed the prevalence of diabetes in subjects with known COVID-19 diagnosis and severity. DATA EXTRACTION: Study information, COVID-19 disease stages, and diabetes prevalence were extracted. DATA SYNTHESIS: The pooled prevalence of diabetes in stratified COVID-19 groups was 14.7% (95% CI 12.5-16.9) among confirmed cases, 10.4% (7.6-13.6) among nonhospitalized cases, 21.4% (20.4-22.5) among hospitalized cases, 11.9% (10.2-13.7) among nonsevere cases, 28.9% (27.0-30.8) among severe cases, and 34.6% (32.8-36.5) among deceased individuals, respectively. Multivariate metaregression analysis explained 53-83% heterogeneity of the pooled prevalence. Based on a modified version of the comparative risk assessment model, we estimated that the overall PAF of diabetes was 9.5% (7.3-11.7) for the presence of severe disease in COVID-19-infected individuals and 16.8% (14.8-18.8) for COVID-19-related deaths. Subgroup analyses demonstrated that countries with high income levels, high health care access and quality index, and low diabetes disease burden had lower PAF of diabetes contributing to COVID-19 severity and death. LIMITATIONS: Most studies had a high risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of diabetes increases with COVID-19 severity, and diabetes accounts for 9.5% of severe COVID-19 cases and 16.8% of deaths, with disparities according to country income, health care access and quality index, and diabetes disease burden.

Projected rapid growth in diabetes disease burden and economic burden in China: a spatio-temporal study from 2020 to 2030.

Background: This study projects the trend of disease burden and economic burden of diabetes in 33 Chinese provinces and nationally during 2020-2030 and investigates its spatial disparities. Methods: Time series prediction on the prevalence and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rates of diabetes was conducted using a Bayesian modelling approach in 2020-2030. The top-down method and the human capital method were used to predict the direct and indirect costs of diabetes for each Chinese province. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were used to identify geographic clusters of low-or high-burden areas. Findings: Diabetes prevalence in Chinese adults aged 20-79 years was projected to increase from 8.2% to 9.7% during 2020-2030. During the same period, the total costs of diabetes would increase from $250.2 billion to $460.4 billion, corresponding to an annual growth rate of 6.32%. The total costs of diabetes as a percentage of GDP would increase from 1.58% to 1.69% in China during 2020-2030, suggesting a faster growth in the economic burden of diabetes than China's economic growth. Consistently, the per-capita economic burden of diabetes would increase from $231 to $414 in China during 2020-2030, with an annual growth rate of 6.02%. High disease and economic burden areas were aggregated in Northeast and/or North China. Interpretation: Our study projects a significant growth of disease and economic burden of diabetes in China during 2020-2030, with strong spatial aggregation in northern Chinese regions. The increase in the economic burden of diabetes will exceed that of GDP. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Outstanding Young Scholars Funding.

Evaluating the time of HIV infection, diagnosis and treatment delays based on HIV notification data in Northwest China, 2008­19.

BACKGROUND: Timely diagnosis and treatment are crucial for reducing HIV transmission;therefore, estimating the time from HIV infection to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation becomes particularly important for people living with HIV. METHODS: We used a well-characterised CD4 depletion model to estimate the time from HIV infection to initiation of ART and the rate of delayed HIV diagnosis (infection to diagnosis >1year) and treatment initiation (diagnosis to treatment >1year), based on HIV notification data for adults (aged ≥18years) in Xi'an city, China, during 2008-19. RESULTS: Overall, 7402 reported HIV diagnoses were included. We estimated more than two-thirds of HIV infections remained undiagnosed (66.1%, 9489/14 345). The estimated proportion of HIV diagnoses that were delayed (>1year) was 80.3% (5941/7402) during 2008-19, and it increased from 72.7% (32/44) in 2008 to 83.5% (908/1088) in 2019. In contrast, the proportion of cases with delayed treatment (>1year) was 13.1% (971/7402) during 2008-19, and it reduced from 75.0% (33/44) in 2008 to 1.5% (16/1088) in 2019. The estimated median time from HIV infection to diagnosis increased from 5.05 (IQR, 0.27-8.15) years to 5.81 (IQR, 2.31-10.28) years, whereas the time from diagnosis to ART initiation reduced from 3.06 (IQR, 1.01-5.20) years in 2008 to 0.07 (IQR, 0.04-0.12) year in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Early treatment after diagnosis has significantly improved, but timely diagnosis of HIV infections may still require further improvement. The estimated proportion of undiagnosed HIV cases remains high in 2019 in Xi'an city and is likely to impede effective control.

Mendelian Randomization Analysis of the Association of SOCS3 Methylation with Abdominal Obesity.

This study was conducted to evaluate the potential causality association of SOCS3 methylation with abdominal obesity using Mendelian randomization. A case-control study, including 1064 participants, was carried out on Chinese subjects aged 18 to 79. MethylTargetTM was used to detect the methylation level for each CpG site of SOCS3, and SNPscan® was applied to measure the single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping. The logistic regression was used to assess the relationship of SOCS3 methylation level and SNP genotyping with abdominal obesity. Three types of Mendelian randomization methods were implemented to examine the potential causality between SOCS3 methylation and obesity based on the SNP of SOCS3 as instrumental variables. SOCS3 methylation levels were inversely associated with abdominal obesity in five CpG sites (effect estimates ranged from 0.786 (Chr17:76356054) to 0.851 (Chr17:76356084)), and demonstrated positively association in 18 CpG sites (effect estimates ranged from 1.243 (Chr17:76354990) to 1.325 (Chr17:76355061)). The causal relationship between SOCS3 methylation and abdominal obesity was found using the maximum-likelihood method and Mendelian randomization method of penalized inverse variance weighted (MR-IVW), and the ß values (95% CI) were 5.342 (0.215, 10.469) and 4.911 (0.259, 9.564), respectively. The causality was found between the SOCS3 methylation level and abdominal obesity in the Chinese population.

Modelling the prevalence of hepatitis B towards eliminating it as a major public health threat in China.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) requires reduction in the prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) surface antigen (HBsAg) in children to 0.1% by 2030, a key indicator for eliminating viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. Whether and how China can achieve this target remains unknown, although great achievements have been made. We aimed to predict the decline of HBsAg prevalence in China and identify key developments needed to achieve the target. METHODS: An age- and time-dependent dynamic compartmental model was constructed based on the natural history of HBV infection and the national history and current status of hepatitis B control. The model was run from 2006 to 2040 to predict the decline of HBsAg prevalence under three scenarios including maintaining current interventions (status quo), status quo + peripartum antiviral prophylaxis (PAP, recommended by WHO in 2020), and scaling up current interventions + PAP. RESULTS: Under the status quo, HBsAg prevalence would decrease steadily in all age groups, but the WHO's target of 0.1% prevalence in children aged < 5 years would not be achieved until 2037. The results are robust according to sensitivity analyses. Under the status quo + PAP, the HBsAg prevalence of children aged < 5 years would significantly decrease with the introduction of PAP, and the higher the successful interruption coverage is achieved by PAP, the more significant the decline. However, even if the successful interruption coverage reaches 90% by 2030, the 0.1% prevalence target would not be met until 2031. Under the scaling up current interventions + PAP, combined with scale-up of current interventions, the WHO's 0.1% target would be achieved on time or one year in advance if PAP is introduced and the successful interruption coverage is scaled up to 80% or 90% by 2030, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It is difficult for China to achieve the WHO's target of 0.1% HBsAg prevalence in children by 2030 by maintaining current interventions. PAP may play an important role to shorten the time to achieve the target. A comprehensive scale-up of available interventions including PAP will ensure that China achieves the target on schedule.

Effect of Direct Bilirubin Level on Clinical Outcome and Prognoses in Severely/Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19.

Objectives: We aimed to investigate how changes in direct bilirubin (DBiL) levels in severely/critically ill the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients during their first week of hospital admission affect their subsequent prognoses and mortality. Methods: We retrospectively enrolled 337 severely/critically ill COVID-19 patients with two consecutive blood tests at hospital admission and about 7 days after. Based on the trend of the two consecutive tests, we categorized patients into the normal direct bilirubin (DBiL) group (224), declined DBiL group (44) and elevated DBiL group (79). Results: The elevated DBiL group had a significantly larger proportion of critically ill patients (χ2-test, p < 0.001), a higher risk of ICU admission, respiratory failure, and shock at hospital admission (χ2-test, all p < 0.001). During hospitalization, the elevated DBiL group had significantly higher risks of shock, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and respiratory failure (χ2-test, all p < 0.001). The same findings were observed for heart damage (χ2-test, p = 0.002) and acute renal injury (χ2-test, p = 0.009). Cox regression analysis showed the risk of mortality in the elevated DBiL group was 2.27 (95% CI: 1.50-3.43, p < 0.001) times higher than that in the normal DBiL group after adjusted age, initial symptom, and laboratory markers. The Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) analysis demonstrated that the second test of DBiL was consistently a better indicator of the occurrence of complications (except shock) and mortality than the first test in severely/critically ill COVID-19 patients. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) combined with two consecutive DBiL levels for respiratory failure and death was the largest. Conclusion: Elevated DBiL levels are an independent indicator for complication and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Compared with the DBiL levels at admission, DBiL levels on days 7 days of hospitalization are more advantageous in predicting the prognoses of COVID-19 in severely/critically ill patients.

Incidence and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) in intensive care units: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 31 cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to identify studies systematically that describe the incidence and outcome of COVID-19-related pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA). METHODS: We searched ScienceDirect, PubMed, CNKI, and MEDLINE (OVID) from December 31, 2019 to November 20, 2021 for all eligible studies. Random-model was used to reported the incidence, all-cause case fatality rate (CFR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). The meta-analysis was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42021242179). RESULTS: In all, thirty-one cohort studies were included in this study. A total of 3,441 patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) were investigated and 442 cases of CAPA were reported (30 studies). The pooled incidence rate of CAPA was 0.14 (95% CI: 0.11-0.17, I2=0.0%). Twenty-eight studies reported 287 deceased patients and 269 surviving patients. The pooled CFR of CAPA was 0.52 (95% CI: 0.47-0.56, I2=3.9%). Interestingly, patients with COVID19 would develop CAPA at 7.28 days after mechanical ventilation (range, 5.48-9.08 days). No significant publication bias was detected in this meta-analysis. DISCUSSION: Patients with COVID-19 admitted to an ICU might develop CAPA and have high all-cause CFR. We recommend conducting prospective screening for CAPA among patients with severe COVID-19, especially for those who receive mechanical ventilation over 7 days.

Gastric and esophageal cancer in China 2000 to 2030: Recent trends and short-term predictions of the future burden.

BACKGROUND: Gastric and esophageal cancer (GEC) have made a great contribution to the cancer burden in China. This study aims to report GEC incidence and mortality trends in 2000-2015 and their predictions to 2030. METHODS: We collected GEC data from 22 cancer registries for Joinpoint temporal trend analysis between 2000 and 2015 and average annual percent change was calculated. Based on the historical changes, combined with the 2015 GEC national incidence and mortality rate, the rate from 2016 to 2030 was predicted grouped by sex and age. The crude rate, standardized rate, and cumulative rate were calculated. The number of cases were obtained by multiplying the United Nations' World Population Prospects and the predicted rate of corresponding years. Attribution changes between 2015 and 2030 were apportioned into demographics and risk factors. RESULTS: There were decreasing trends of age-standardized incidence rate world (ASIRW) and age-standardized mortality rate world (ASMRW) during 2000-2015 in China (p < 0.05), the decline was more significant for the age group of 40-49 years in men and the age group of 50-59 years in women. It was predicted that in 2030, about 549,724 new cases and 394,576 deaths of GEC would occur in China. Compared with 2015, the numbers of new GEC cases and deaths in 2030 decreased by 15.24% and 17.62%, respectively. From 2020 to 2030, GEC ASIRW and ASMRW were predicted to decline from 24.98 to 17.47 and from 17.41 to 11.82 per 100,000, respectively. The number of new cases decreased by about 15.24% with changing demographic (44.48%) and risk (-59.72%) and the number of deaths decreased by about 17.62% with changing demographic (47.18%) and risk (-64.80%). CONCLUSIONS: Although GEC incidence and mortality rates showed downward trends, the disease burden remains heavy in China. The current prevention and control strategy are effective which need to be carried on.

Cost-effectiveness of universal screening for chronic hepatitis B virus infection in China: an economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: China has the highest prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection worldwide. Universal HBV screening might enable China to reach the WHO 2030 target of 90% diagnostics, 80% treatment, and 65% HBV-related death reduction, and eventually elimination of viral hepatitis. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of implementing universal HBV screening in China and identified optimal screening strategies. METHODS: We used a Markov cohort model, inputting parameters based on data from previous studies and public databases, to assess the cost-effectiveness of four HBV serological screening strategies in China in different screening scenarios. We simulated universal screening scenarios in 15 adult age groups between 18 and 70 years, with different years of screening implementation (2021, 2026, and 2031) and compared to the status quo (ie, no universal screening); in total, we investigated 180 different screening scenarios. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) between the different screening strategies and the status quo (current screening strategy). We performed probabilistic and one-way deterministic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our findings. FINDINGS: With a willingness-to-pay level of three times the Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (US$30 828), all universal screening scenarios in 2021 were cost-effective compared with the status quo. The serum HBsAg/HBsAb/HBeAg/HBeAb/HBcAb (five-test) screening strategy in people aged 18-70 years was the most cost-effective strategy in 2021 (ICER $18 295/quality-adjusted life-years [QALY] gained). This strategy remained the most cost-effective, when the willingness-to-pay threshold was reduced to 2 times GDP per capita. The two-test strategy for people aged 18-70 years became more cost-effective at lower willingness-to-pay levels. The five-test strategy could prevent 3·46 million liver-related deaths in China over the lifetime of the cohort. It remained the most cost-effective strategy when implementation was delayed until 2026 (ICER $20 183/QALY) and 2031 (ICER $23 123/QALY). Screening young people (18-30 years) will no longer be cost-effective in delayed scenarios. INTERPRETATION: The five-test universal screening strategy in people aged 18-70 years, implemented within the next 10 years, is the optimal HBV screening strategy for China. Other screening strategies could be cost-effective alternatives, if budget is limited in rural areas. Delaying strategy implementation reduces overall cost-effectiveness. Early screening initiation will aid global efforts in achieving viral hepatitis elimination. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Associations between cancer family history and esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions in high-risk areas of China.

BACKGROUND: Family clustering of esophageal cancer (EC) has been found in high-risk areas of China. However, the relationships between cancer family history and esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions (ECPL) have not been comprehensively reported in recent years. This study aimed to provide evidence for identification of high-risk populations. METHODS: This study was conducted in five high-risk areas in China from 2017 to 2019, based on the National Cohort of Esophageal Cancer. The permanent residents aged 40 to 69 years were examined by endoscopy, and pathological examination was performed for suspicious lesions. Information on demographic characteristics, environmental factors, and cancer family history was collected. Unconditional logistic regression was applied to evaluate odds ratios between family history related factors and ECPL. RESULTS: Among 33,008 participants, 6143 (18.61%) reported positive family history of EC. The proportion of positive family history varied significantly among high-risk areas. After adjusting for risk factors, participants with a family history of positive cancer, gastric and esophageal cancer or EC had 1.49-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.36-1.62), 1.52-fold (95% CI: 1.38-1.67), or 1.66-fold (95% CI: 1.50-1.84) higher risks of ECPL, respectively. Participants with single or multiple first-degree relatives (FDR) of positive EC history had 1.65-fold (95% CI: 1.47-1.84) or 1.93-fold (95% CI: 1.46-2.54) higher risks of ECPL. Participants with FDRs who developed EC before 35, 45, and 50 years of age had 4.05-fold (95% CI: 1.30-12.65), 2.11-fold (95% CI: 1.37-3.25), and 1.91-fold (95% CI: 1.44-2.54) higher risks of ECPL, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with positive family history of EC had significantly higher risk of ECPL. This risk increased with the number of EC positive FDRs and EC family history of early onset. Distinctive genetic risk factors of the population in high-risk areas of China require further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ChiCTR-EOC-17010553.

The lag effect of exposure to PM2.5 on esophageal cancer in urban-rural areas across China.

Exposure to PM2.5 pollution is a significant health concern and increases risks for cancers in China. However, the studies regarding the effect of PM2.5 and esophageal cancer incidence (ECI) among urban-rural areas are limited. In this study, we examined the sex- and area-specific association between exposure to PM2.5 and ECI, as well as explored the corresponding lag effects on ECI using a geographical weighted Poisson regression. We found significantly positive effect on ECI for males and females in different models, with the greatest increase of 1.44% (95% CI: 1.30%, 1.59%) and 2.42% (95% CI: 2.17%, 2.66%) in per 10 ug/m3 increase of PM2.5 for males and females at single year lag7 and lag4 after all covariates controlled, respectively. We also found that the long-term effect of PM2.5 on ECI was relatively stable at all moving average year lags. Moreover, rural areas had higher ECI risks for males (0.17%) and females (0.64%) with longer lag period than urban areas. In addition, higher risks for both sexes appeared in north, northwestern, and east China. The findings indicated that long-term exposure to PM2.5 was significantly associated with increased risks for ECI, which reinforce a comprehensive understanding for ECI related to PM2.5.

Cost-effectiveness of risk-stratified endoscopic screening for esophageal cancer in high-risk areas of China: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Risk-stratified endoscopic screening (RSES) has been suggested to improve screening efficiency. We aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of RSES and identify the optimal risk-score thresholds for once in a lifetime esophageal cancer (EC) screening in high-risk areas of China. METHODS: From a healthcare system perspective, a Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of 13 RSES strategies (under different score thresholds for EC risk), universal endoscopic screening strategy, and no screening. Six cohorts of 100,000 participants with different screening ages (40-65 years) were followed up to age 77 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), that is, incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, was the primary outcome. RESULTS: Compared with no screening, as the score threshold was lowered, additionally gained QALYs increased, with 49 to 172 QALYs and 329 to 1147 QALYs gained from screening performed at 40 and 65 years, respectively. RSES in all age scenarios had ICERs less than the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and 11 RSES strategies with score thresholds of 3 to 13 had lower ICERs than universal endoscopic screening. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of the GDP per capita (U.S.$10,276/QALY), RSES at score thresholds of 8 or 9 and universal endoscopic screening were the most cost-effective strategies at ages <55 and ≥55 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: RSES is cost-effective, and score thresholds of 8 or 9 should be considered for screening ages <55 years. For individuals aged ≥55 years, universal endoscopic screening is the optimal strategy.

Critical timing and extent of public health interventions to control outbreaks dominated by SARS-CoV-2 variants in Australia: a mathematical modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: The exact characteristics of a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak that trigger public health interventions are poorly defined. The aim of this study was to assess the critical timing and extent of public health interventions to contain COVID-19 outbreaks in Australia. METHODS: A practical model was developed using existing epidemic data in Australia. The effective combinations of public health interventions and the critical number of daily cases for intervention commencement under various scenarios of changes in transmissibility of new variants and vaccination coverage were quantified. RESULTS: In the past COVID-19 outbreaks in four Australian states, the number of reported cases on the day that interventions commenced strongly predicted the size and duration of the outbreaks. In the early phase of an outbreak, containing a wildtype-dominant epidemic to a low level (≤10 cases/day) would require effective combinations of social distancing and face mask use interventions to be commenced before the number of daily reported cases reaches six. Containing an Alpha-dominant epidemic would require more stringent interventions that commence earlier. For the Delta variant, public health interventions alone would not contain the epidemic unless the vaccination coverage was ≥70%. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the importance of early and decisive action in the initial phase of an outbreak. Vaccination is essential for containing variants.