A COVID-19 specific multiparametric and ECG-based score for the prediction of in-hospital mortality: ELCOVID score.

We aimed to develop and validate a COVID-19 specific scoring system, also including some ECG features, to predict all-cause in-hospital mortality at admission. Patients were retrieved from the ELCOVID study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT04367129), a prospective, multicenter Italian study enrolling COVID-19 patients between May to September 2020. For the model validation, we randomly selected two-thirds of participants to create a derivation dataset and we used the remaining one-third of participants as the validation set. Over the study period, 1014 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (mean age 74 years, 61% males) met the inclusion criteria and were included in this analysis. During a median follow-up of 12 (IQR 7-22) days, 359 (35%) patients died. Age (HR 2.25 [95%CI 1.72-2.94], p < 0.001), delirium (HR 2.03 [2.14-3.61], p = 0.012), platelets (HR 0.91 [0.83-0.98], p = 0.018), D-dimer level (HR 1.18 [1.01-1.31], p = 0.002), signs of right ventricular strain (RVS) (HR 1.47 [1.02-2.13], p = 0.039) and ECG signs of previous myocardial necrosis (HR 2.28 [1.23-4.21], p = 0.009) were independently associated to in-hospital all-cause mortality. The derived risk-scoring system, namely EL COVID score, showed a moderate discriminatory capacity and good calibration. A cut-off score of ≥ 4 had a sensitivity of 78.4% and 65.2% specificity in predicting all-cause in-hospital mortality. ELCOVID score represents a valid, reliable, sensitive, and inexpensive scoring system that can be used for the prognostication of COVID-19 patients at admission and may allow the earlier identification of patients having a higher mortality risk who may be benefit from more aggressive treatments and closer monitoring.

Role of Quantitative Flow Ratio in Predicting Future Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy in Heart Transplant Recipients.

BACKGROUND: Coronary angiography is the gold standard for cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) diagnosis, but it usually detects the disease at an advanced stage. We investigated the role of quantitative flow ratio (QFR), a noninvasive tool to identify potentially flow-limiting lesions, in predicting CAV development in heart transplant recipients. METHODS: Consecutive heart transplant recipients with no evidence of angiographic CAV at baseline coronary angiography were retrospectively included between January 2010 and December 2015, and QFR computation was performed. The relationship between vessel QFR and the occurrence of angiographic vessel-related CAV (≥50% stenosis) was assessed. RESULTS: One hundred forty-three patients were included and QFR computation was feasible in 241 vessels. The median value of QFR at baseline coronary angiography was 0.98 (interquartile range, 0.94-1.00). During a median follow-up of 6.0 years (interquartile range, 4.6-7.8 years), vessel-related CAV occurred in 25 (10.4%) vessels. Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis identified a QFR best cutoff of ≤0.95 (area under the curve, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.71-0.90]; P<0.001). QFR≤0.95 was associated with an increased risk of vessel-related CAV (adjusted hazard ratio, 20.87 [95% CI, 5.35-81.43]; P<0.001). In an exploratory analysis, QFR≤0.95 in at least 2 vessels was associated with higher incidence of cardiovascular death or late graft dysfunction (71.4% in recipients with 2-3 vessels affected versus 5.1% in recipients with 0-1 vessels affected, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of heart transplant recipients, QFR computation at baseline coronary angiography may be a safe and reliable tool to predict vessel-related CAV and clinical outcomes at long-term follow-up.

Left ventricular output indices and sacubitril/valsartan titration: role of stroke volume index.

AIMS: This study aims to investigate the role of echocardiographically determined left ventricular output indices on sacubitril/valsartan titration in a cohort of outpatients with heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed 106 HFrEF patients who underwent echocardiography examination up to 1 week before starting treatment with sacubitril/valsartan. For each patient, a comprehensive list of clinical and laboratory parameters was collected, and stroke volume index (SVi), cardiac index, and flow rate were calculated. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of complete titration of sacubitril/valsartan. The secondary endpoint was the incidence of adverse events (hypotension and renal adverse events). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify variables associated with the primary and secondary endpoints. Mean age of patients was 73.7 ± 10.4 years, 72 patients (71.7%) had ischaemic aetiology of HF, and mean ejection fraction was 29.4 ± 5.9%. At multivariate analysis, SVi [odds ratio (OR) 1.43 per 5 mL/m2 increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.97; P = 0.028], serum sodium (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.37; P = 0.022), and haemoglobin (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.25-2.40; P = 0.001) were found to be independent predictors of titration during follow-up. Multivariate analysis for the secondary endpoint showed SVi (OR 0.63 per 5 mL/m2 increase, 95% CI 0.44-0.90; P = 0.012) and New York Heart Association Class III (OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.07-6.5; P = 0.034) to be associated with hypotension. CONCLUSIONS: Stroke volume index is positively associated with complete titration of sacubitril/valsartan. Patients with low SVi are more prone to experience hypotension during titration.

Angio-Based Fractional Flow Reserve, Functional Pattern of Coronary Artery Disease, and Prediction of Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Result: a Proof-of-Concept Study.

PURPOSE: Wire-based coronary physiology pullback performed before percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) discriminates coronary artery disease (CAD) distribution and extent, and is able to predict functional PCI result. No research investigated if quantitative flow ratio (QFR)-based physiology assessment is able to provide similar information. METHODS: In 111 patients (120 vessels) treated with PCI, QFR was measured both before and after PCI. Pre-PCI QFR trace was used to discriminate functional patterns of CAD (focal, serial lesions, diffuse disease, combination). Functional CAD patterns were identified analyzing changes in the QFR virtual pullback trace (qualitative method) or after computation of the QFR virtual pullback index (QVPindex) (quantitative method). QVPindex calculation was based on the maximal QFR drop over 20 mm and the length of epicardial coronary segment with QFR most relevant drop. Then, the ability of the different functional patterns of CAD to predict post-PCI QFR value was tested. RESULTS: By qualitative method, 51 (43%), 20 (17%), 15 (12%), and 34 (28%) vessels were classified as focal, serial focal lesions, diffuse disease, and combination, respectively. QVPindex values >0.71 and ≤0.51 predicted focal and diffuse patterns, respectively. Suboptimal PCI result (post-PCI QFR value ≤0.89) was present in 22 (18%) vessels. Its occurrence differed across functional patterns of CAD (focal 8% vs. serial lesions 15% vs. diffuse disease 33% vs. combination 29%, p=0.03). Similarly, QVPindex was correlated with post-PCI QFR value (r=0.62, 95% CI 0.50-0.72). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that functional patterns of CAD based on pre-PCI QFR trace can predict the functional outcome after PCI. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov , number NCT02811796. Date of registration: June 23, 2016.

A serum proteome signature to predict mortality in severe COVID-19 patients.

Here, we recorded serum proteome profiles of 33 severe COVID-19 patients admitted to respiratory and intensive care units because of respiratory failure. We received, for most patients, blood samples just after admission and at two more later time points. With the aim to predict treatment outcome, we focused on serum proteins different in abundance between the group of survivors and non-survivors. We observed that a small panel of about a dozen proteins were significantly different in abundance between these two groups. The four structurally and functionally related type-3 cystatins AHSG, FETUB, histidine-rich glycoprotein, and KNG1 were all more abundant in the survivors. The family of inter-α-trypsin inhibitors, ITIH1, ITIH2, ITIH3, and ITIH4, were all found to be differentially abundant in between survivors and non-survivors, whereby ITIH1 and ITIH2 were more abundant in the survivor group and ITIH3 and ITIH4 more abundant in the non-survivors. ITIH1/ITIH2 and ITIH3/ITIH4 also showed opposite trends in protein abundance during disease progression. We defined an optimal panel of nine proteins for mortality risk assessment. The prediction power of this mortality risk panel was evaluated against two recent COVID-19 serum proteomics studies on independent cohorts measured in other laboratories in different countries and observed to perform very well in predicting mortality also in these cohorts. This panel may not be unique for COVID-19 as some of the proteins in the panel have previously been annotated as mortality markers in aging and in other diseases caused by different pathogens, including bacteria.

Blood Interferon-α Levels and Severity, Outcomes, and Inflammatory Profiles in Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients.

Background: Deficient interferon responses have been proposed as one of the relevant mechanisms prompting severe manifestations of COVID-19. Objective: To evaluate the interferon (IFN)-α levels in a cohort of COVID-19 patients in relation to severity, evolution of the clinical manifestations and immune/inflammatory profile. Methods: This is prospective study recruiting consecutive hospitalized patients with respiratory failure associated with SARS-COV-2 infection and matched controls. After enrollment, patients were assessed every 7 ± 2 days for additional 2 consecutive visits, for a total of 21 days. The severity of the clinical condition was ranked based on the level of respiratory support required. At each time-point blood samples were obtained to assess immune cells and mediators by multiplex immunoassay. Results: Fifty-four COVD-19 and 11 control patients matched for severity were enrolled. At recruitment, lower levels of blood IFN-α were found in COVID-19 patients compared to controls (3.8-fold difference, p < 0.01). Improvements in COVID-19 severity were paralleled by a significant increase of blood IFN-α levels. A significant increase in blood IFN-α was found over the study period in survivors (70% of the study population). A similar trend was found for blood IFN-ß with IFN-ß levels below the threshold of detectability in a substantial proportion of subjects. Significantly higher values of blood lymphocytes and lower levels of IL-10 were found at each time point in patients who survived compared to patients who died. In patients who clinically improved and survived during the study, we found an inverse association between IL-10 and IFN-α levels. Conclusion: The study identifies a blood immune profile defined by deficient IFN-α levels associated with increased IL-10 expression in patients progressing to severe/life threatening COVID-19 conditions, suggesting the involvement of immunological pathways that could be target of pharmacological intervention. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04343053.

Markers of endothelial and epithelial pulmonary injury in mechanically ventilated COVID-19 ICU patients.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers can be used to detect the presence of endothelial and/or alveolar epithelial injuries in case of ARDS. Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2), soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), vascular cell adhesion protein-1 (VCAM-1), P-selectin and E-selectin are biomarkers of endothelial injury, whereas the receptor for advanced glycation end-products (RAGE) reflects alveolar epithelial injury. The aims of this study were to evaluate whether the plasma concentration of the above-mentioned biomarkers was different 1) in survivors and non-survivors of COVID-19-related ARDS and 2) in COVID-19-related and classical ARDS. METHODS: This prospective study was performed in two COVID-19-dedicated Intensive Care Units (ICU) and one non-COVID-19 ICU at Ferrara University Hospital. A cohort of 31 mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 ARDS and a cohort of 11 patients with classical ARDS were enrolled. Ang-2, ICAM-1, VCAM-1, P-selectin, E-selectin and RAGE were determined with a bead-based multiplex immunoassay at three time points: inclusion in the study (T1), after 7 ± 2 days (T2) and 14 ± 2 days (T3). The primary outcome was to evaluate the plasma trend of the biomarker levels in survivors and non-survivors. The secondary outcome was to evaluate the differences in respiratory mechanics variables and gas exchanges between survivors and non-survivors. Furthermore, we compared the plasma levels of the biomarkers at T1 in patients with COVID-19-related ARDS and classical ARDS. RESULTS: In COVID-19-related ARDS, the plasma levels of Ang-2 and ICAM-1 at T1 were statistically higher in non-survivors than survivors, (p = 0.04 and p = 0.03, respectively), whereas those of P-selectin, E-selectin and RAGE did not differ. Ang-2 and ICAM-1 at T1 were predictors of mortality (AUROC 0.650 and 0.717, respectively). At T1, RAGE and P-selectin levels were higher in classical ARDS than in COVID-19-related ARDS. Ang-2, ICAM-1 and E-selectin were lower in classical ARDS than in COVID-19-related ARDS (all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 ARDS is characterized by an early pulmonary endothelial injury, as detected by Ang-2 and ICAM-1. COVID-19 ARDS and classical ARDS exhibited a different expression of biomarkers, suggesting different pathological pathways. Trial registration NCT04343053 , Date of registration: April 13, 2020.

Incidence and characterization of acute pulmonary embolism in patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia: A multicenter Italian experience.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Several studies reported a high incidence of pulmonary embolism (PE) among patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, but detailed data about clinical characteristics, risk factors of these patients and prognostic role of PE are still lacking. We aim to evaluate the occurrence of pulmonary embolism among patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to describe their risk factors, clinical characteristics, and in-hospital clinical outcomes. METHODS: This is a multicenter Italian study including 333 consecutive SARS-CoV-2 patients admitted to seven hospitals from February 22 to May 15, 2020. All the patients underwent computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) for PE detection. In particular, CTPA was performed in case of inadequate response to high-flow oxygen therapy (Fi02≥0.4 to maintain Sp02≥92%), elevated D-dimer (>0.5µg/mL), or echocardiographic signs of right ventricular dysfunction. Clinical, laboratory and radiological data were also analyzed. RESULTS: Among 333 patients with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia and undergoing CTPA, PE was detected in 109 (33%) cases. At CTPA, subsegmental, segmental, lobar and central thrombi were detected in 31 (29%), 50 (46%), 20 (18%) and 8 (7%) cases, respectively. In-hospital death occurred in 29 (27%) patients in the PE-group and in 47 (21%) patients in the non-PE group (p = 0.25). Patients in PE-group had a low rate of traditional risk factors and deep vein thrombosis was detected in 29% of patients undergoing compression ultrasonography. In 71% of cases with documented PE, the thrombotic lesions were located in the correspondence of parenchymal consolidation areas. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a low rate of risk factors for venous thromboembolism, PE is present in about 1 out 3 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia undergoing CTPA for inadequate response to oxygen therapy, elevated D-dimer level, or echocardiographic signs of right ventricular dysfunction. In most of the cases, the thromboses were located distally in the pulmonary tree and were mainly confined within pneumonia areas.

Over time relationship between platelet reactivity, myocardial injury and mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2-associated respiratory failure.

The aim of this study (NCT04343053) is to investigate the relationship between platelet activation, myocardial injury, and mortality in patients affected by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Fifty-four patients with respiratory failure due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were enrolled as cases. Eleven patients with the same clinical presentation, but negative for SARS-CoV-2 infection, were included as controls. Blood samples were collected at three different time points (inclusion [T1], after 7 ± 2 days [T2] and 14 ± 2 days [T3]). Platelet aggregation by light transmittance aggregometry and the circulating levels of soluble CD40 ligand (sCD40L) and P-selectin were measured. Platelet biomarkers did not differ between cases and controls, except for sCD40L which was higher in COVID-19 patients (p = .003). In COVID-19 patients, P-selectin and sCD40L levels decreased from T1 to T3 and were higher in cases requiring admission to intensive care unit (p = .004 and p = .008, respectively). Patients with myocardial injury (37%), as well as those who died (30%), had higher values of all biomarkers of platelet activation (p < .05 for all). Myocardial injury was an independent predictor of mortality. In COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital for respiratory failure, heightened platelet activation is associated with severity of illness, myocardial injury, and mortality.ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT04343053.

Gender differences in acute coronary syndromes patterns during the COVID-19 outbreak.

BACKGROUND: Mortality from acute coronary syndromes (ACS) is strictly related to early management. As female patients usually experience longer delays before diagnosis and treatment, we assessed whether women were more affected by the dramatic drop in hospital admissions for ACS during the Covid-19 pandemic. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of clinical and angiographic characteristics of consecutive patients who were admitted for ACS at 15 hospitals in Northern Italy comparing men and women data. The study period was defined as the time between the first confirmed case of Covid-19 in Italy (February 20, 2020) and March 31, 2020. We compared hospitalization rates between the study period and two control periods: the corresponding period during the previous year (February 20 to March 31, 2019) and the earlier period during the same year (January 1 to February 19, 2020). Incidence rate ratios comparing the study period with each of the control periods were calculated with the use of Poisson regression. RESULTS: Of the 547 patients who were hospitalized for ACS during the study period, only 127 (23%) were females, accounting for a mean of 3.1 admissions per day, while ACS hospitalized males were 420, with a mean of 10.2 admissions per day. There was a significant decrease driven by a similar reduction in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) diagnosis in both sexes compared to the control periods. A trend toward a greater reduction in admitted females was shown in the intra-year control period (46% admission reduction in females vs 37% in males, with females accounting for 26% of ACS, P=0.10) and a significant reduction when compared to the previous year control period (40% admission reduction in females vs 23% in males, with females accounting for 28% of ACS, P=0.03), mainly related to Unstable Angina diagnosis. CONCLUSION: The Covid-19 pandemic period closed the gap between men and women in ACS, with similar rates of reduction of hospitalized STEMI and NSTEMI and a trend toward greater reduction in UA admission among women. Furthermore, many typical differences between males and females regarding ischemic heart disease presentations and vessel distribution were leveled.

Electrocardiographic features of 431 consecutive, critically ill COVID-19 patients: an insight into the mechanisms of cardiac involvement.

AIMS: Our aim was to describe the electrocardiographic features of critical COVID-19 patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: We carried out a multicentric, cross-sectional, retrospective analysis of 431 consecutive COVID-19 patients hospitalized between 10 March and 14 April 2020 who died or were treated with invasive mechanical ventilation. This project is registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (identifier: NCT04367129). Standard ECG was recorded at hospital admission. ECG was abnormal in 93% of the patients. Atrial fibrillation/flutter was detected in 22% of the patients. ECG signs suggesting acute right ventricular pressure overload (RVPO) were detected in 30% of the patients. In particular, 43 (10%) patients had the S1Q3T3 pattern, 38 (9%) had incomplete right bundle branch block (RBBB), and 49 (11%) had complete RBBB. ECG signs of acute RVPO were not statistically different between patients with (n = 104) or without (n=327) invasive mechanical ventilation during ECG recording (36% vs. 28%, P = 0.10). Non-specific repolarization abnormalities and low QRS voltage in peripheral leads were present in 176 (41%) and 23 (5%), respectively. In four patients showing ST-segment elevation, acute myocardial infarction was confirmed with coronary angiography. No ST-T abnormalities suggestive of acute myocarditis were detected. In the subgroup of 110 patients where high-sensitivity troponin I was available, ECG features were not statistically different when stratified for above or below the 5 times upper reference limit value. CONCLUSIONS: The ECG is abnormal in almost all critically ill COVID-19 patients and shows a large spectrum of abnormalities, with signs of acute RVPO in 30% of the patients. Rapid and simple identification of these cases with ECG at hospital admission can facilitate classification of the patients and provide pathophysiological insights.